another inconvenient truth an introduction to peak oil october 2007 theoildrum.com
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Another Inconvenient Truth
An Introduction to Peak Oil
October 2007
TheOilDrum.com
![Page 2: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The US was once the leader in world oil production
![Page 3: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
But US oil production began to decline in 1970
![Page 4: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
No one told the public about the decline
• US oil decline gave rise to the oil problems in the 1970s - OPEC, embargo
• Decline continues, year after year• Decline occurred even with improving
technology• We began to import more oil and moved to a
“service” economy• Truth was too embarrassing to tell
![Page 5: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
One by one, other sites have begun to decline also
![Page 6: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Soon, world oil production will begin to decline
• Date not yet certain
• Association for the Study of Peak Oil-USA says “Before 2015”
• Case Western Reserve survey of oil experts says “highly likely” by 2010
• Several experts say 2005 or 2006
• Data suggests peak may be past
![Page 7: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Peak may have occurred about time of Hurricane Katrina (2005)
![Page 8: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Where is oil used?
• Transportation - cars, buses, trucks• Food - planting and harvesting,
processing, refrigeration, transportation• Raw materials - asphalt, building
materials, clothing, pharmaceuticals• Energy source - manufacturing
![Page 9: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
ScarcityScarcity andand FossilFossil FuelFuel CostCost
Onshore
Offshore
Global Conventional Oil Production May Peak SoonUS has as has Texas
Graph of Oil ProductionSource: Colin Campbell of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) Newsletter as in Wikapedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
![Page 10: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Rough estimates of future world oil production - if peak is now
![Page 11: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Sources of data for previous graph
• Historical: US Energy Information Administration
• Symmetric: Assumes future will be mirror image of past
• Analyst average: Average of close-date projections by Ace, Bakhtiari, and Robelius
![Page 12: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Future US oil supply will depend on level of imports
![Page 13: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Level of future US oil imports is very uncertain
• Imports likely to decline faster than world oil supply– Exporters supply themselves first– Hoarding; civil unrest
• US may be unable to purchase oil– Balance of payments issues– Will exporters take more IOUs?
![Page 14: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
[email protected] | TomOD.com14
ASIDE: US ‘Dependence’on Mid East?
~ 60% US oil Imported
U.S. gets all Western Hemisphere’s oil
From Mideast: 2000: 21%, 2005: 17% (10-12% of total demand)
Hence, U.S. fractional “dependence” very low
means.topump…
Oil facts: U.S.
Imports
![Page 15: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
With less oil, real GDP is likely to decline
![Page 17: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Why weren’t we told?
• We weren’t told when US production peaked.
• Can we expect to be warned before world production peaks?
• Declining economies are embarrassing.
![Page 18: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Will technology save the day?
• Technology didn’t prevent the decline in US oil production.
• Technology didn’t prevent the decline in North Sea oil production.
• Should we expect it to prevent a decline in world oil production?
![Page 19: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Is there an easy solution?
• No, not really.• Conservation is a partial solution.• Alternative fuels (solar, wind, biofuels,
geothermal) are likely to provide some help.• New technology like battery-operated cars is
likely to be too little, too late.• We may need to unwind globalization; go
back to simpler life styles, technologies that worked before.
![Page 20: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
0.0E+00
1.0E+13
2.0E+13
3.0E+13
4.0E+13
5.0E+13
6.0E+13
7.0E+13
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
kW
Ho
ur Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewable
![Page 23: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
[email protected] | TomOD.com2323
Why Iraq (Iran)? Much pressure to develop fields:
Restoration of production capacityIEA Reference Scenario
Slow production expansionRapid production expansion
(Source: IEA Energy Investment Conf. late ‘04)
Cum
ulat
ive
Inve
stm
ents
(bi
llion
$U
S)
Production (million barrels/day)
2010
2010
2010
2020
2030 2020
2030
2030
Very similargraphs weremade by:Council onForeign Affairspre-invasioncommission;(included later-occupation official Jas.Garner, …)2020
N.B.
![Page 24: Another Inconvenient Truth An Introduction to Peak Oil October 2007 TheOilDrum.com](https://reader030.vdocument.in/reader030/viewer/2022032709/56649ebf5503460f94bc95b9/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
[email protected] | TomOD.com24
Energy/Oil Basic Facts:
Supply
Persian-Gulf states’ importance
U.S. & Russia #2 & #3 producers-- unsustainable –
Gulf States’ production%
will grow
What are Iraq/ Iran’simportanceto global system?