Prof. Branislav Glavatović, PPD

NATO SfP Project no. 983054

“HARMONIZATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS FOR THE WESTERN BALKAN COUNTRIES”:

Overview of main BSHAP results

Zagreb, Croatia Hotel Sheraton12-13 May 2011

“Harmonization of Seismic Hazard Maps for the Western Balkan Countries” (BSHAP)

Project was carried out by:12 institutions from 6 countries,7 Co-Directors and 48 key members and by other institutional staff

Project Proposal preparation we started more then 4 years ago

And on 2nd October 2007, the BSHAP was launched in Podgorica

Participating countries:Participating countries:•• Albania• Bosnia and Herzegovina• Croatia• FYR Macedonia• Montenegro• Serbia

End Products = Main Goals:

1. Integrated database organized in a GIS application for the whole region: regional earthquake catalogue, seismotectonic data, focal mechanism data, morphological and geological data, etc.

2. Seismogenic model of the Region,

3. Seismic hazard maps, harmonized with the EU standards - as a base for seismic safety improvement, seismic risk management, and seismic design codes,

4. Improved seismic monitoring networks through the deployment of new instrumentation,

5. Improved scientific collaboration between the participating countries and institutions,

6. Trained young scientists in earthquake-hazard related topics,

7. Published and disseminated the major Project results.

Some basic time steps during the Project preparation:

• DPPI INITIATIVE of the EU Stability Pact initiated the idea on preparation of a Project related to seismic hazard assessment and harmoni-zation for the western Balkan countries in the middle of 2006

• PROJECT DOCUMENT was prepared through several regional meetings,also supported by DPPI

• Project Document was presented to the NATO SfP Envirement Panel in the middle of 2007, accepted and Project granted with 638.000 EUR

• Project was planned to last from 2007 to 2010, but was postponed for 6 months due to delay in contributions of some participating countries.

97.000• Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Zagreb 98.000• Seismological Survey of Serbia, Belgrade, Serbia

100.000• Ministry of Civil Affairs, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina96.000• Seismological Institute (now Institute of GeoSciences) Tirana, Albania97.000• University “St. Cyril and Methodius”, Skopje, Macedonia

105.000• Montenegro Seismological Observatory, Podgorica, Montenegro45.000• Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey (NPD)

Total of 638.000 EUR638.000 EUR were awarded by NATO SPS, or by partner institutions:

Structure and contents of main Project working packages1. Compilation of earthquake catalogue data

1.1. Earthquake catalogue completion1.2. Unification of magnitude scale

2. Seismic source modelling2.1. Seismotectonical elaboration2.2. Recurrence of earthquakes inside the identified seismic sources2.3. Modeling of seismic sources using smoothed seismicity approach

3. Determination of GMP models3.1. Investigation of available GMP models3.2. Comparison of results from different GMP models

4. Seismic hazard assessment4.1. Preparation and testing of input database4.2. Computation of hazard probabilities

5. GIS implementation 5.1. Preparation of GIS background and thematic maps5.2. Elaboration of hazard GIS maps

6. Equipment purchase and deployment7. Software purchase

7.1. Accelerogram analysis software7.2. GIS software7.3. Alternative hazard computation software with limited license

8. Project coordination activities and issuing information and results in the Project8.1. WEB site preparation8.2. Web maintenance, Workshops, coordination and dissemination of the results8.3. Presentation and dissemination of the final hazard results

9. Training of young scientists

Main Project working packages

Coordination - through WG meetings and workshops:1) Podgorica, Montenegro – Project presentation and launching (October 2, 2007).

2) Ig, Ljubljana, Slovenia (ARSO 7-9 November 2007), covering: Hazard software analysis (OHAZ); Spatial smoothing seismicity; Seismic source zones delineation and characterization and Earthquake catalogue unification.

Donation by:: Administration of the Republic of Slovenia for Civil Protection and Disaster Relief and Stability Pact/DPPI .

3) Skopje, Macedonia (17-18 December, 2007) to discuss: how to synchronize national earthquake catalogues and seismic zones affecting the region under the study.

4) Dubrovnik, Croatia - WG Meeting (26-27 March 2008) covering discussion and decisions on:Earthquake catalogue compilation, declustering, completeness, format; Seismic source zones delineation and characterization; Strong ground motion attenuation models; Seismic hazard assessment methodology; Seismic instrumentation analysis and selection.

5) Belgrade, Serbia – Workshop (25-26 September 2008): National Earthquake Catalogues compilation, Ground Motion Prediction Models, Seismic Hazard estimation software OHAZ further development.

6) Budva, Montenegro - WG Meeting (16-17 December 2008), covering discussion and decisions on:Overview of the ongoing Project results (finalized data bases); Decision on specific elements on thematic maps; Decision on purchasing GIS software (MapInfo+VMapper) and hazard assessment software, decision on ground motion prediction.

7) Divcibare, Serbia - Workshop and GIS training seminar (20 – 24 April 2009 ): MapInfo and VerticalMapper software training, preparation of thematic layers, georeferencing and digitizing maps.

8) Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina – WG Meeting (26-27 October 2009): Overview of the ongoing Project results, Improvements in OHAZ software for seismic hazard calculation and it BSHAP implementation; further thematic maps consideration.

9) Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina) Workshop (April 9, 2010): Overview of the BSHAP achieved results, national reports on activities, discussion on open questions.

10) Tirana, Albania – Co-directors Meeting (October 29, 2010): Project Progress overview, Seismic Instrumentation, Hazard estimation topics, Maps production, GIS preparation.

11) Zagreb, Croatia - Workshop on final Project results presentation (12-13 May 2011): Presentation of the Project final results; Publishing of the results.

For the purpose of the BSHAP Project visibility, the Web site: www.wbseismicmaps.org was design and regularly refreshed for these three and a half of years

GIS software MapInfo and Vertical Mapper (mostly) were purchesed, training organized (Divcibare, Serbia) and thenGIS layers were developed parallel with the developement of the Project results

GIS training, Divcibare, Serbia

36Total

11 Serbia

3 Montenegro

13 Macedonia

2 Croatia

7 Bosnia and Herzegovina

10 Albania

QuantityStrong motion stations

13Total

3 Montenegro

5 Croatia

5 Bosnia and Herzegovina

QuantitySeismic BB stationsAll national Seismic Monitoring Networks were significantly improved through the BSHAP

Protocol on seismic data exchange in realtime was signed between the institutions

Mrs. S. Kovacevic presentation followMrs. S. Kovacevic presentation follow

Hazard assesment results

BSHAP catalogue was created by integration and filtering(declustering) of all national catalogues countries in the region;

In 2nd step: unification of magnitude type, coordinate systems and clarification of doubtful events is ongoing, due to the produced delays in contributions

Prof. M. Herak presentation follow

Contributions from all 6 countries on active tectonic fault systems were defined, digitized and integrated

and seismotectonic zones delinatedand characterized

Miss J. Mihaljevic presentation follow

SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESMENT Prof. N. Kuka presentation follow on the methodology and software

Prof. Z. Milutinovic presentation follow on seismic hazard assesment results

Numerous End Users of the BSHAP results can be recognized:

1. Civil protection agencies,

2. Agencies for urban planning,

3. Ministries responsible for seismic safety improvement and seismic risk management,

4. Authorities for seismic design code legislation,

5. National seismic networks,

6. Seismological, geological and geophysical institutions in the Region,

7. Insurance companies,

8. The whole community of the Region - by implementing seismic hazard maps in planning, design and building of earthquake resistance structures

BSHAP relation to FP7 Project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE)

• Regional research Project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe”(SHARE) financed through the FP7 Programme was launched in the middle of 2009 and MSO was appointed as the regional partner for the BSHAP Region.

• The full collaboration between BSHAP and SHARE unfortunately was limited by the decision of BSHAP Dubrovnik Meeting (March 2008) not to allow BSHAP earthquake catalogue to be used for any purposes untill the end of the Project.

• To awoyed excluding the BSHAP region from SHARE seismic hazard maps, MSO prepared a separate regional earthquake catalogue using its own data (ML ≥ 4) and all the published catalogue data and the results of additionally realized seismotectonic research and made it available for SHARE.

Concluding remarksConcluding remarks• Improved cooperation between all the institutions in the western Balkan region involved in

seismic hazard assessment and seismic risk reduction

• Significantly improved technical capacity of all national seismic networks in the western Balkan countries and seismic monitoring capacity of the region

• Established real-time seismic data exchange between national seismic networks

• Advocated for the importance of mitigation of seismic risk in the region and education of society

• Improved international cooperation (e.g. with EU institutions)

• Introduced many governmental, scientific and public institutions to the benefits of the NATO SPS Programme

• Fostered other NATO SfP Projects

• Young scientist trained in the methodology of seismic hazard assessment through Projectworkshops

• Fostered further cooperation and collaboration between partner institutions

• Convinced that technical support and advising made by SfP staff was exelent during complete realization of the Project

Additional conclusions:

1. We reached very valuable scientific experience in such a complex Project with so many participating countries and institutions,

2. We collected new knowledge on seismotectonics and seismicity of the Region,

3. Realized the need to devote more scientific efforts in research of seismotectonic and geodynamic processes, and to developeinstitutional capacity for that kind of research,

Some difficulties in coordination and the delays were caused mostly by:

The complexity of the Project (6 countries and 14 institutions)

Absense in some cases of proper personal motivation for reaching the results

The luck of experience in such kind of projects

The luck of high quality expertise in seismotectonic analysis