e8 Tokyo Summit

“Smart Use of Electricity ”

Hiroshi KomiyamaChairman of the Institute of Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.

President Emeritus at the University of Tokyo

May 26, 2010

1. 21st Century paradigm1. 21st Century paradigmIssues confronting Japan today (small land area, lack of resources, aging society) will apply to the entire world in 2050.

20thCentury

Infinite Earth

20001900

CO2

H2O

Chlorophyll

O2Sunlight

Carbohydrate CO2

H2O

Photosynthesis

Finite Earth

Explosion of knowledge

21stCentury

•Climate change•Resource depletion•Pollution•Food・Water…

Source: “Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world,” p.134

Aging society•Longevity•Low birthrate•Demand saturation •Pension•Medical care•Nursing care•Work sharing •Barrier-free …

http://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/seisaku/html/111a2.htm

2.2. Global Changes Over the Past CenturyGlobal Changes Over the Past Century

Global changes over the past century: Earth has shrunken

Global population

Energy consumption

100 mil. tonnes Production of the three major grains

CO2 concentrationSource: “Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world,” p.59

Source: “Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world,” p.59

Source: “Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world,” p.62

Source: “Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world,” p.61

3.3. Global Changes in the Coming CenturyGlobal Changes in the Coming Century

The coming century: Abundance of physical objects, advancement of global warming, scarcity of resources

Overview of “Earth” × “100 years”What will occur on Earth in the coming century and approximately40 years from now in 2050?

We are at a turning point in the paradigm

today“Finite Earth”

Saturation of man-made objects

Advancement of global warming

Scarcity of resources

4.4. Vision 2050 as a SolutionVision 2050 as a Solution

Fundamental Principles of Vision 2050

Three-fold increase in energy efficiency

Establishment of a material recycling system

Doubling of renewable energy resources

Vision 2050 is theoretically and technically appropriate, and can be achieved through

international consensus

(1) GDP = population ×per capita GDP

(2) Energy consumption per GDP (J / GDP $)

(3) CO2 emission per unit energy (kg-CO2/J）

(4) CO2（kg）

(1) GDP × (2) Energy intensity × (3) CO2 intensity = Total CO2 emission

(Size of economy)

(Energy efficiency)

(Low-carbon energy)

Energy efficiency increase

(heat pumps, electric vehicles, etc.)

Utilization of low-carbon

energy(renewable

energy sources, nuclear power,

etc.)

55--1.1. Achieving Vision 2050 (LowAchieving Vision 2050 (Low--carbon Society)carbon Society)

GDP Total CO2emission

Energy

GDP

CO2 emission

Energy

It is important to decrease CO2 emission per unit energy and increase energy efficiency.

55--2.2. Achieving Vision 2050Achieving Vision 2050○Power generation sector → Low-carbon power sources (nuclear power, renewable

energy sources)

○ Transportation sector → Plug-in hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles

○Residential and commercial sector → Solar power and other renewable energy sources, high-insulation architecture, energy-efficient appliances, electrification

○ Industrial sector → Natural gas boilers, replacement of boilers with heat pumps

Energy conservation through smart use of

electricity, dissemination of high-efficiency products

and electrificationHeat pumps, electric vehicles, etc.

Energy conservation Energy conservation through smart use of through smart use of

electricity, dissemination of electricity, dissemination of highhigh--efficiency products efficiency products

and electrificationand electrificationHeat pumps, electric vehicles, etc.

High-efficiency, low-carbon power systems

Utilization of nuclear power, expansion of renewable energy

use, etc.

HighHigh--efficiency, lowefficiency, low--carbon carbon power systemspower systems

Utilization of nuclear power, expansion of renewable energy

use, etc.

××

Reduction of primary energy consumptionRealization of a low-carbon society

Demand sideDemand sideSupply sideSupply side Smart Grid

Smart Smart GridGrid

66--1.1. Achieving ThreeAchieving Three--fold Increase in Energy fold Increase in Energy EfficiencyEfficiency

Electrification of transportation: Smart use of electricity

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

US/European vehiclesJapanese vehicles

Hybrid vehicles

Electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles

Theory is important Reduction of automobile energy consumption to 1/100.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

Fuel

con

sum

ptio

n [L

/km

]

Origin

0

Vehicle weight [kg]Data Source: Yahoo! Japan Autos Source: “Japan as a forerunner for addressing emerging problems in the world,” p.24

66--22．．Achieving ThreeAchieving Three--fold Increase in Energy fold Increase in Energy EfficiencyEfficiency

• High-insulation architecture• Active utilization of energy-saving products (high-efficiency lighting (LED),

refrigerators, air conditioners (heat pump), etc.)

616

5258

10384

16240

0 5000 10000 15000 20000

2004年製

2000年製

1997年製

1991年製

2005年製との電気代差額（円）

Energy conservation: Smart use of electricity

Economic efficiency when old products are replaced with new products （CBT）

208

236

447

680

946.2

0 200 400 600 800 1000

2005年製

2004年製

2000年製

1997年製

1991年製

消費電力（kWh）

374

1188

1760

2156

1804

2750

3344

4466

6468

7392

9614

13794

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

2006年製

2005年製

2004年製

2003年製

2002年製

2001年製

2000年製

1999年製

1998年製

1997年製

1996年製

1995年製

2007年製との電気代差額（円）

865

882

919

945

963

947

990

1017

1068

1159

1201

1302

1492

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

2007年製

2006年製

2005年製

2004年製

2003年製

2002年製

2001年製

2000年製

1999年製

1998年製

1997年製

1996年製

1995年製

消費電力（kWh）

If a 1991 model refrigerator is replaced with a 2005 model that supposedly costs 100,000 yen, the new refrigerator will pay for itself in about 6 years through the difference in electricity fee.

Fig. Difference in annual electricity fee Fig. Power consumption of refrigerators

Fig. Power consumption of air conditioners

If a 1995 model air conditioner is replaced with a 2006 model that supposedly costs 100,000 yen, the new air conditioner will pay for itself in about 7 years through the difference in electricity fee.

Source: The Energy Conservation Center, Japan

Difference in electricity fee compared to a 2005 model (yen) Power consumption (kWh)

1991 model1997 model2000 model2004 model

1991 model1997 model2000 model2004 model2005 model

Power consumption (kWh)Difference in electricity fee compared to a 2007 model (yen)

Fig. Difference in annual electricity fee

Can be used for 10 yrs.

without replacement

~4 globes in 10 yrs.

~40 globes in 10 yrs.

Replacem

ent interval

40,000 hrs.10,000 hrs.1,000 hrs.

Estim

ated lifetime

~¥2~¥4~¥20

Electricity bill per

(charge)

24hrs.

LED Globe~40W

Fluorescent Globe~40W

Incandescent Globe40W

*When left switched on for 24 hrs/day with an electricity charge of ¥22/kWh

-Consume 1/10 energy of incandescent globe-40x lifespan of incandescent globe

66--3.3. Achieving ThreeAchieving Three--fold Increase in Energy fold Increase in Energy EfficiencyEfficiency

Electrification of cooling, heating, and water heating (heat pump): Smart use of electricity

66--4.4. Achieving ThreeAchieving Three--fold Increase in Energy fold Increase in Energy EfficiencyEfficiency

Energy consumption can be decreased by 50% and CO2 emission can be decreased by 80% in 2050, through dissemination of insulated houses, improvement of energy-saving performance of home appliances, electrification of heating and water heating, dissemination of next-generation vehicles, and dissemination of solar power generation.

(Calculation example in the case of Japan)Household energy consumption (homes, cars) Household CO2 emission (homes, cars)

Rea

l hou

seho

ld e

nerg

y co

nsum

ptio

n (P

J/ye

ar)

CO

2em

issi

on (k

t-CO

2/yea

r)

Cars

Year

Realizing eco households in 2050: Household energy consumption reduced to 1/2, household CO2 emission reduced to 1/5

the current levels

Reduced to 1/5

Source: Company estimatesYear

Cars

HomesReduced by half

Source: Company estimates

*Residential heat insulation, use of energy-saving appliances and electrification of homes

*Hybrid/electric vehicles

*Residential heat insulation & use of energy-saving appliances*Electrification of homes*Hybrid/EV*Solar power generation

HomesReduced by half

7.7. Example of EnergyExample of Energy--Efficient House Efficient House (Komiyama Eco(Komiyama Eco--House)House)Examples of household measures

Komiyama eco-house: 80% energy reduction through household and transportation measures

ⒸHiroshi Komiyama

Heat pump water heater: COP = 4

High insulation: K=1.6 W/m2K

New air conditioners

Hybrid car: 22.6 km/l

Solar power generation: 3.6 kW

80% energy reduction

88．．COCO22 Reduction Potential in Daily LifeReduction Potential in Daily LifeSignificant effects through energy creation and conservation(Calculation example in the case of Japan)

CO2 reduction potential in daily life (household)

13.5% of total CO2 emission in Japan

Prepared by Komiyama based on assorted materials

Annually Market Scale Introduction Co₂ reduction (ton-CO₂/year)

Energy creation Solar power generation

Energy conservation

Insulation

High-efficiency HP air conditioner

Inverter lighting

High-efficiency HP water heater

Hybrid car

¥110 trillion

¥16 trillion

¥11 trillion

¥100 billion

¥30 trillion

¥60 trillion

46 million homes

70 million units

200 million units

46 million units

32 million units

75,000,000

6,410,000

27,000,000

2,300,000

25,000,000

50,000,000

99．．Resolving the Initial Investment IssueResolving the Initial Investment IssueEnergy creation and conservation measures should be considered as investments. The issue of initial investments should be resolved by creative thinking.

Government

Target households of energy-saving

measures

Issuance of government bonds

Recovery of saved costs

Energy-saving measures

Advantages

Transfer to consumers after recovery of government bonds

Solar power generation 15-year bond

High-efficiency lighting 1-year bondResidential air conditioner 5-year bond

10-year bond

700 yen / unit-year

20,000 yen / unit-year

Hybrid car 5-year bond

150,000 yen / house-year

70,000 yen / unit-year

50,000 yen / unit-year

Window insulation 10-year bond 10,000 yen / house-year

Benefits after transferⒸHiroshi Komiyama

Mechanism of self-sustaining government bonds

High-efficiency HP water heater

1010．．Specific ExampleSpecific Example

Collective purchase of solar

cells and nnerwindows

Self-sustaining “Eco House Prefectural Bond”

-Reducing CO₂ by disseminating solar cells and inner windows-

No cost burden to Aomori Prefecture or its residents!

Model Proposed by Dr. Hiroshi Komiyama

Issuance of self-sustaining “Eco House Prefectural Bonds” to install solar panels and inner windows in homes in Aomori Prefecture and

reduce CO₂

Solar Panels and Inner WindowsFundingGovernment

Ministries

Aomori Prefecture

Subsidies

Rate: 30%

Estimated 510 million yen

(under verification)

Solar Panel Manufacturer

Inner window manufacturer

Construction company

Purchasing products at low prices by placing large orders

Ex. In the case of 30% discounted off regular prices

Solar panels ¥940,000 x 1,000 homes = ¥940m

Inner insulation windows ¥590,000 x 1,000 homes = ¥590m

Total ¥1,530m

*Solar panels: Installation of 3kW panels, Window area: 30m²

Total amount: ¥1.02b

Bonds

Issuance of self-sustaining bonds

Collective purchase of solar panels and inner

windows

Installation of purchased solar panels on the roofs of

participating homeowners

Participating residents

Installation of solar panels and inner

windows in homes

Bonds purchasers

Self-sustaining bonds

Example of self-sustaining bond

Repayment of Bonds with the

amount of electricity sold to the electric utility

No. of years for repayment: 10 (bullet maturity)

*In the case of 4,000 kW/year solar power generation, purchasing price ¥26/kWh

Power sold by Aomori Pref.

No cost burden on prefecture

No cost burden on residents

•Provision of solar panel installation space (cells to be transferred to resident after repayment of bonds by prefecture.

•~40% reduction of heating costs by

11.11. Image of Ideal Future Society (Summary)Image of Ideal Future Society (Summary)

Demand side: Energy conservation through smart use of electricity, dissemination of

high-efficiency products and electrification (heat pumps, electric vehicles)

Demand side: Energy conservation through Demand side: Energy conservation through smart use of electricity, dissemination of smart use of electricity, dissemination of

highhigh--efficiency products and electrification efficiency products and electrification (heat pumps, electric vehicles)(heat pumps, electric vehicles)

Supply side: High-efficiency, low-carbon power systems

(nuclear power, renewable energy sources)

Supply side: HighSupply side: High--efficiency, lowefficiency, low--carbon carbon power systems power systems

(nuclear power, renewable energy sources)(nuclear power, renewable energy sources)

××

需要サイド需要サイド

Smart GridSmart GridSmart Grid

Society practicing smart usage of low-carbon power sources = reduction of primary energy consumption

Urban model Renewable energy/resource supply modelSolar power generation

Usage of LED lighting, natural light

High-efficiency air-conditioning system

High-efficiency heat sources such as heat pumps and fuel cells

Heat island countermeasures

New transportation systems

Compact citiesHeat diversion

High-density energy demand from advanced land utilization

Wind power generationBiomass generation

Next-generation bio-fuelsBTL (biomass to liquid)

Mega solar

Innovations for a low-carbon society

Creation of new industriesPlatinum Network

Eco-friendly, barrier-free, human development, employment

Development of comfortable communities in the 21st century

Realization of comfortable living environments

Measures for an aging society

Solar power generation

Electric vehicles

High-insulation homes

High-efficiency water heaters

Suburban model

Diversion of heat from heat-generating facilities (incineration plants) to residences

Creation of energy-efficient and

comfortable living environments

Greenhouses

Biogas from livestock waste

Heat supply

Solar power generation using idle land and barns

Production of resource crops using idle landBio-fuel production

Bio-material productionRural village model

Vegetable plant employing older people

© Mitsubishi Research Institute, Inc.

12.12. Structuring of Knowledge (Summary 2) Structuring of Knowledge (Summary 2)

Action 1 for new smart use of electricity

Action 2 for new smart use of electricity

Segmented units of advanced and specialized knowledge should be assembled and re-integrated to address global-scale issues.

Action 1

Action 2Action 3

Action 4

Knowledge unit (1)

Knowledge unit (2)Knowledge unit (1)

Knowledge unit (3)