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Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Lecture 11 Section 1.6 Robb T. Koether Hampden-Sydney College Wed, Sep 13, 2017 Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 1 / 23

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Page 1: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

Arrow’s Impossibility TheoremLecture 11Section 1.6

Robb T. Koether

Hampden-Sydney College

Wed, Sep 13, 2017

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 1 / 23

Page 2: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

1 The Majority Criterion

2 The Condorcet Criterion

3 The Monotonicity Criterion

4 The Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives Criterion

5 Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem

6 Assignment

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 2 / 23

Page 3: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

Outline

1 The Majority Criterion

2 The Condorcet Criterion

3 The Monotonicity Criterion

4 The Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives Criterion

5 Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem

6 Assignment

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 3 / 23

Page 4: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

The Majority Criterion

Definition (Majority Criterion)The Majority Criterion says that if a candidate has a majority offirst-place votes, then that candidate should be the winner. (There mayor may not be a majority candidate.)

The Borda count method and Coombs’ method may violate theMajority Criterion.

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 4 / 23

Page 5: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

The Majority Criterion

Example (The Majority Criterion – Borda Count Method)

No. of Votes 8 6 5 31st A A B B2nd B B C C3rd C D D A4th D C A D

Does any candidate have a majority?Who wins by the Borda Count Method?

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 5 / 23

Page 6: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

The Majority Criterion

Example (The Majority Criterion – Coomb’s Method)

No. of Votes 8 6 5 21st D A A B2nd B B C C3rd C D D A4th A C B D

Does any candidate have a majority?Who wins by Coomb’s Method?

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 6 / 23

Page 7: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

The Majority Criterion

The Borda count method and Coombs’ method may violate theMajority Criterion.The other methods (I’m pretty sure) do not violate it.

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 7 / 23

Page 8: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

Outline

1 The Majority Criterion

2 The Condorcet Criterion

3 The Monotonicity Criterion

4 The Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives Criterion

5 Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem

6 Assignment

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 8 / 23

Page 9: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

The Condorcet Criterion

Definition (Condorcet Winner)The Condorcet winner is a candidate who beat every other candidatein pairwise comparisons. (There may or may not be a Condorcetwinner.)

Definition (Condorcet Criterion)The Condorcet Criterion says that if there is a Condorcet winner, thenthat candidate should be the winner (by whatever method used).

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 9 / 23

Page 10: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

The Condorcet Criterion

Example (The Condorcet Criterion – Borda Count Method)

No. of Votes 8 6 5 31st A A B B2nd B B C C3rd C D D A3rd D C A D

Is there a Condorcet winner?Who wins by the Borda Count Method?

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 10 / 23

Page 11: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

The Condorcet Criterion

The plurality method, Borda count method,plurality-with-elimination method, and Coombs’ method mayviolate the Condorcet Criterion.The other method (I’m pretty sure) does not violate it.

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 11 / 23

Page 12: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

Outline

1 The Majority Criterion

2 The Condorcet Criterion

3 The Monotonicity Criterion

4 The Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives Criterion

5 Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem

6 Assignment

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 12 / 23

Page 13: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

The Monotonicity Criterion

Definition (Monotonicity Criterion)The Monotonicity Criterion says that if candidate X is the winner, thenX would still be the winner if a voter had placed X higher in his ranking.

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 13 / 23

Page 14: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

The Monotonicity Criterion

Example (The Monotonicity Criterion – Plurality-with-EliminationMethod)

10 8 7 41st B A C C2nd C B A B3rd A C B A

Who is the winner by the Plurality-with-Elimination Method?Suppose that the last four voters decided to rank B over C. Nowwho is the winner?

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 14 / 23

Page 15: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

The Monotonicity Criterion

The plurality-with-elimination Method may violate the MonotonicityCriterion.The other methods (I’m pretty sure) do not violate it.

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 15 / 23

Page 16: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

Outline

1 The Majority Criterion

2 The Condorcet Criterion

3 The Monotonicity Criterion

4 The Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives Criterion

5 Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem

6 Assignment

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 16 / 23

Page 17: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

The Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives Criterion

Definition (Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives Criterion)The independence-of-irrelevant-alternatives criterion (IIA) says that ifcandidate X is the winner, then X would still be the winner if one ormore of the losing candidates had not been in the race.

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 17 / 23

Page 18: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

The Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives Criterion

Example (The Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives Criterion– Plurality-with-Elimination Method)

10 8 7 41st B A C C2nd C B A B3rd A C B A

Who is the winner by the Plurality-with-Elimination Method?Suppose that candidate C drops out. Now who is the winner?

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 18 / 23

Page 19: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

The Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives Criterion

The plurality method and the plurality-with-elimination methodmay violate the IIA Criterion.The other methods (I’m pretty sure) do not violate it.

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 19 / 23

Page 20: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

Outline

1 The Majority Criterion

2 The Condorcet Criterion

3 The Monotonicity Criterion

4 The Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives Criterion

5 Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem

6 Assignment

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 20 / 23

Page 21: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem

Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem)If there are at least 3 candidates, then there is no voting method thatcannot violate any of the four desired properties (Majority, Condorcet,Monotonicity, Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives).

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 21 / 23

Page 22: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

Outline

1 The Majority Criterion

2 The Condorcet Criterion

3 The Monotonicity Criterion

4 The Independence-of-Irrelevant-Alternatives Criterion

5 Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem

6 Assignment

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 22 / 23

Page 23: Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem - people.hsc.edupeople.hsc.edu/faculty-staff/robbk/Math111/Lectures/Fall 2017/Lectu… · Theorem (Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem) If there are at

Assignment

AssignmentChapter 1 Exercises 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56.

Robb T. Koether (Hampden-Sydney College) Arrow’s Impossibility Theorem Wed, Sep 13, 2017 23 / 23