Center for Congressional and Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies Presidential Studies

www.american.edu/ccpswww.american.edu/ccps

Assessing President ObamaAssessing President Obama

November 29, 201November 29, 201Woodrow Wilson International Center for Woodrow Wilson International Center for

Scholars Scholars

James A. ThurberJames A. ThurberDirector and Professor Director and Professor

Center for Congressional Center for Congressional and Presidential Studiesand Presidential Studies

American UniversityAmerican University

thurber@american.eduthurber@american.edu

202-885-6247202-885-6247www.american.edu/spa/ccps

Obama in Office Obama in Office Gary Jacobson and Richard Boyd on Gary Jacobson and Richard Boyd on polarization and public opinion.polarization and public opinion.

Stephen Wayne on personality and Stephen Wayne on personality and performanceperformance

James Pfiffner on White House James Pfiffner on White House organization organization

Barbara Sinclair on Obama and the Barbara Sinclair on Obama and the congressional leadershipcongressional leadership

John Owens on Obama in the John Owens on Obama in the congressional partisan contextcongressional partisan context

Obama in Office Obama in Office Jim Thurber on Obama and lobbyistsJim Thurber on Obama and lobbyists

Ron Elving on Obama and the mediaRon Elving on Obama and the media

Scott Lilly on Obama’s Scott Lilly on Obama’s communications stylecommunications style

Domestic Policy: Joe White on the Domestic Policy: Joe White on the budget, Claudia Thurber on the politics budget, Claudia Thurber on the politics of regulation, Doug Van Houweling on of regulation, Doug Van Houweling on Internet policyInternet policy

Foreign Policy: Wilkenfeld, Crenshaw, Foreign Policy: Wilkenfeld, Crenshaw, Pious, and Korb/Rothman Pious, and Korb/Rothman

Central Questions of the Book Central Questions of the Book

How has President Obama reacted to How has President Obama reacted to the crises in which he found himself?the crises in which he found himself?

How does he make decisions?How does he make decisions?

How does he make policy, How does he make policy, communicate, campaign, lobby, and communicate, campaign, lobby, and work with Congress?work with Congress?

What has been the impact of Obama’s What has been the impact of Obama’s presidency on policy, process, and presidency on policy, process, and politics?politics?

Evaluating the Obama Evaluating the Obama Presidency: Most Presidency: Most Consequential?Consequential?

Stimulus/TARP/Auto BailoutsStimulus/TARP/Auto Bailouts

Health care overhaulHealth care overhaul

Financial sector re-regulationFinancial sector re-regulation

Redeployment out of Iraq-into Redeployment out of Iraq-into AfghanistanAfghanistan

243 new laws in two years243 new laws in two years

ConsequentialConsequential

Lame Duck CompromiseLame Duck Compromise– 2 more years on tax cuts 2 more years on tax cuts – Other tax cutsOther tax cuts– Extended jobless benefitsExtended jobless benefits– Deepened the deficitDeepened the deficit

Ratification of New STARTRatification of New STARTRepeal of Don’t Ask Don’t TellRepeal of Don’t Ask Don’t TellFood Safety ActFood Safety Act

On roll-call votes where the president had a clear position, what percentage of the time

did Congress support the president's position?

Source: Congressional Quarterly as reported by National Public Radio: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=122436116&ps=cprs

Evaluating the Obama Evaluating the Obama Presidency: Most Presidency: Most

Controversial?Controversial?

First African American to be PresidentFirst African American to be President

Right: Too Right: Too expansionistic/activist/liberal, too expansionistic/activist/liberal, too radical… even “socialist”radical… even “socialist”

Left: too moderate, conciliatory, too Left: too moderate, conciliatory, too willing to sell out his base supporterswilling to sell out his base supporters

““No drama” deliberative style was too No drama” deliberative style was too indecisive, “professorial president”indecisive, “professorial president”

Evaluating the Obama Evaluating the Obama Presidency: Most Presidency: Most

Controversial?Controversial?

Lingering high unemploymentLingering high unemployment

Slow GDP growthSlow GDP growth

Record deficits and debtRecord deficits and debt

Immigration reform failureImmigration reform failure

Climate change legislation failedClimate change legislation failed

Controversial anti-terrorism policiesControversial anti-terrorism policies

Deadlocked Post 2010 electionDeadlocked Post 2010 election

Presidential Obama’s Job Presidential Obama’s Job ApprovalApproval

Center for Congressional and Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies Presidential Studies

www.american.edu/ccpswww.american.edu/ccps

““The Shellacking”:The Shellacking”:Historic 2010 “Wave” ElectionHistoric 2010 “Wave” Election

GOP gain = 63 seats net in HouseGOP gain = 63 seats net in House

Biggest Dem loss since 1938Biggest Dem loss since 1938

Republicans reach 242 Republicans reach 242

Freshman class = 87 RepublicansFreshman class = 87 Republicans

86 of 87 take “no new taxes” pledge86 of 87 take “no new taxes” pledge

Over 50% are Tea Party connectedOver 50% are Tea Party connected

One in three have never held officeOne in three have never held office

Continued Realignment of the SouthContinued Realignment of the South

Center for Congressional and Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies Presidential Studies

www.american.edu/ccpswww.american.edu/ccps

Obama Challenges Obama Challenges in 2011- in 2011-20122012

Little consensus about problems and threat: e.g. . Little consensus about problems and threat: e.g. . Jobs, Debt-Deficit, Health Care, Education, Jobs, Debt-Deficit, Health Care, Education, Afghanistan, Middle EastAfghanistan, Middle East

Little consensus about solutions to problem Little consensus about solutions to problem

Strong parties and interest groups disagree about Strong parties and interest groups disagree about problems and solutions/Deadlock?problems and solutions/Deadlock?

Limits on resources, large deficits/debtLimits on resources, large deficits/debt

Partisanship, Individualism, drive for re-election will Partisanship, Individualism, drive for re-election will dominate unless Crisisdominate unless Crisis

Obama’s Leadership: Leading from behind?Obama’s Leadership: Leading from behind?