Presented at:

The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

24 March 2011

Tunisia Predicted: Demography and the Probability of Liberal Democracy

in the Greater Middle East

Richard Cincotta

Consultant on Political Demography, The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Demographer-in-residenceThe Stimson Center

rcincotta@stimson.org

Thanks to:

• National Intelligence Council Long Range Analysis Unit

• Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Environmental Change & Security Program.

• The Stimson Center

Four democracy questions

• Why are some states seemingly “unready for liberal democracy”?

• Why are some groups of liberal democracies so stable?

• Why has there been a decade-long break in political liberalization?

• What are reasonable expectations for developing states in terms of democratization?

Data: UN Population Division, 2009

Year (5-yr period)

Tunisia

Egypt

Syria

Algeria

Jordan

Transitional Population age structures

2005

Data: UN Population Division, 2009

Cincotta, 2009

DATA SOURCE: UN Population Division, 2009

Four categories: four individual countries

Hobbesian Bargain Hypothesis:

Elites

CitizenryPolitical rights

Civil liberties

Security

Youth Bulge Hypothesis:

Effort needed to recruit for political violence

Low amount of effort needed

High amount of effort needed

Median Age (Years)

15 25 35 45 55

Youthful Intermediate Mature Post-Mature

Authoritarianism Liberalization

Net

Benefits

Median Age (Years)

15 25 35 45 55

Likelihood

Youthful Intermediate Mature Post-Mature

Violent

intra-state conflict Liberal democracy

Transitional Population age structures

2005

Data: UN Population Division, 2009

Zone of Vulnerability:

• high risk of political violence

• high risk of losing liberal democracy

Prop

ortio

n

Libe

ral d

emoc

raci

es

Proportion of liberal democracies in age-structural categories

Youthful Intermediate Mature Post-Mature

Nil set

Cincotta & Doces, 2011

Liberal democracy and age-structural youthfulness

in 5 world regions, 1975-2005

Data: UN Population Division, 2009

Youth bulges and the path to liberal democracy: 8 selected states

Cincotta, 2009

Some anecdotal evidence of rises as youth bulge declines.

Four democracy questions

• Why are some states seemingly “unready for liberal democracy”?

• States with youthful populations have a lower probability of rising to and remaining a liberal democracy

• Why are some groups of liberal democracies so stable?

• States with mature populations typically have stable liberal democracies.

• Why has there been a decade-long break in political liberalization?

• Few developing countries are moving through the “sweet spot” of their age structural transition (median age ~26 to 35 years)

• What are reasonable expectations for developing states in terms of democratization?

• Don’t have high expectations for democracy when age structures are young.