assessment of future change stan gregory department of fisheries & wildlife oregon state...
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AssessmentAssessment
Of Future ChangeOf Future Change
Stan Gregory Stan Gregory
Department of Fisheries & Department of Fisheries & WildlifeWildlife
Oregon State UniversityOregon State University
Coastal Coho Salmon
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Ind
ex o
f A
bu
nd
ance
1850
1995
2050 Scenario
2050 Conservation Scenario
1850
Models of Models of stream stream
ecosystem ecosystem structure structure
and functionand function
WillametteRiver Basin
2nd to 4thorder
streams(6500 km)
Cutthroat Trout
639
575
534
641
483
598 601 609 605 601618
382
827
749
823 821
790803
842826 825
841 837855
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
MF CF UW MK NS SS MW YM MP TU CL LW
Subbasin
Cut
thro
at A
bund
ance
EPT Richness
7.2
6.1
7.9
7.1 7.2
6.66.1 6.2 6.2 6.1
6.6
5.0
11.8
11.0
11.911.7 11.6 11.5
11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0
11.4
10.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
MF CF UW MK NS SS MW YM MP TU CL LW
Subbasin
EPT
Ric
hnes
s
Fish Richness – Fish Richness – Species/kmSpecies/km
Tributary JunctionTributary Junction 19.719.7
Multiple ChannelMultiple Channel 19.219.2
Single ChannelSingle Channel 16.816.8
Fish Abundance – # Fish Abundance – # CapturedCaptured
Tributary JunctionTributary Junction 624624
Multiple ChannelMultiple Channel 594594
Single ChannelSingle Channel 390390
MMcKenzie Jct
Willamette River Basin Planning Atlas, p. 63
Fish50 Year
PatternOf Change
Develop.50 Year
PatternOfChange
ERC ConservationERC Conservation
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Years
Scor
e
Riparian Wildlife Small Streams Floodplain Willamette Fish
MAX ConservationMAX Conservation
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Years
Scor
e
Riparian Wildlife Small Streams Floodplain Willamette Fish
ERC DevelopmentERC Development
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Years
Scor
e
Riparian Wildlife Small Streams Floodplain Willamette Fish
MAX DevelopmentMAX Development
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Years
Scor
e
Riparian Wildlife Small Streams Floodplain Willamette Fish
Median Land ValueMedian Land Value
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Years
Land
Val
ue
MAX DEV ERC DEV ERC CONS MAX CONS
Fish10 Years
Fish20 Years
Fish30 Years
Fish40 Years
Fish50 Years
Development10 Years
Development20 Years
Development30 Years
Development40 Years
Development50 Years
What did we forget?What did we forget?What don’t we know?What don’t we know?
Willamette River Basin
Planning Atlas