asset management plan update - northpower

March 2020

Asset Management Plan Update

2020 - 2030

© COPYRIGHT 2020 Northpower Limited.

All rights reserved. This document is protected by copyright vested in Northpower Limited (Northpower). Any breach of Northpower’s copyright may be prevented by legal proceedings seeking remedies including injunctions, damages and costs. Any material prepared in breach of Northpower’s copyright must be delivered to Northpower immediately upon request by Northpower.

DISCLAIMER The information in this document is provided in good-faith and represents Northpower’s opinion as at the date of publication. Northpower does not make any representations, warranties or undertakings either express or implied, about the accuracy or the completeness of the information provided; and the act of making the information available does not constitute any representation, warranty or undertaking, either express or implied. This document does not, and is not intended to; create any legal obligation or duty on Northpower. To the extent permitted by law, no liability (whether in negligence or other tort, by contract, under statute or in equity) is accepted by Northpower by reason of, or in conjunction with, any statement made in this document or by any actual or purported reliance on it by any party. Northpower reserves all rights to alter, in its absolute discretion, any of the information provided in this document.

northpower.com

Asset Management Plan Update

2020 - 2030

Table of Contents

1. Asset Management Plan Update 12. Material Changes 5

2.1 Material changes to Network Development Plan2.2 Material changes to Life Cycle Asset Management Plan2.3 Material changes to Asset Management Practices2.4 Material changes to Expenditure Forecasts

3. Schedules 133.1 Schedule 11a: Report on Forecast Capital Expenditure3.2 Schedule 11b: Report on Forecast Operational Expenditure3.3 Schedule 12a: Report on Asset Condition3.4 Schedule 12b: Report on Forecast Capacity 3.5 Schedule 12c: Report on Forecast Network Demand 3.6 Schedule 12d: Report on Forecast Interruptions and Duration3.7 Schedule 14a: Mandatory Explanatory Notes on Forecast Information

4. Director Certification 31

Section 1: Asset Management

Plan Update

Northpower Limited | Asset Management Plan Update 2020-2030 Page 1

Section 1: Asset Management Plan Update

1 Asset Management Plan Update This supplement to our Asset Management Plan published in March 2018 (for the period 2018-2028) provides an update to Northpower’s approach to managing its assets and delivering the planned programmes of capital and operational spend, as well as planned maintenance work for the period 1 April 2020 to 31 March 2030.

Northpower’s 2018 Asset Management Plan is available from Northpower’s website at: http://northpower.com/about/disclosures/asset-management-plan. This update should be read in conjunction with the 2018 AMP (and subsequent 2019 AMP Update) and outlines how we are managing our Network assets for the efficient and reliable delivery of electricity to consumers.

Covered in this update are:

1. Material changes to the network development plans disclosed in the last AMP;

2. Material changes to the lifecycle asset management (maintenance and renewal) plans disclosed in the last AMP;

3. Material changes to Northpower’s asset management practices; and

4. An outline of the reasons for material changes to the previous disclosures in the Report on Forecast Capital Expenditure set out in Schedule 11a and Report on Forecast Operational Expenditure set out in Schedule 11b.

Stakeholder FeedbackNorthpower encourages feedback to enable continued improvement in meeting the needs of its consumers and stakeholders.

Feedback should be addressed to:

Roy HamiltonAsset Investment and Strategy Manager

NorthpowerPrivate Bag 9018Whangarei Mail CentreWhangarei 0148

Email: [email protected]

Section 2: Material Changes


Section 2: Material Changes

2 Material Changes

2.1 Overview Since the 2019 AMP Update we have continued to review the existing Asset Management Plan for the electricity business and our approach to investment and maintenance with a focus on continual improvement. The key inputs into this review have included:

• A full review of forecast changes in investment need relating to aging major items of plant and load growth for the 10-year planning period FY21-FY30.

• A full review of unit costs associated with our investment programmes, noting a general trend to increased delivery costs across all work delivery streams.

• Reviewing security of supply criteria against updated load and growth forecasts for high growth areas (primarily Mangawhai and Bream Bay).

• A review of Opex and Capex programs to ensure SAIDI and SAIFI remain in line with long-term averages, taking into account an aging asset base, increases in planned work and ongoing vegetation challenges.

This 2020 AMP Update summarises the resulting changes to our Asset Management Plan.

2.2 Material Changes to Network Development Plan

Overall $18.0M increase in the 10-year Network Development profile compared with the 2019 Asset Management Plan Update1

We have reviewed the Network development investments for the next 10-year period and revisited growth assumptions to validate investment need. As a result, some projects have been deferred out of the 10-year planning period.

Counteracting this deferment outcome, and to ensure security of supply to areas experiencing high residential and industrial growth, we have brought forward two significant projects in Mangawhai and Bream Bay and made a number of other targeted changes as set out in the table below.

Material Changes to Network Development Plan2

Year Change ($) Description of Change Reasons for change

FY21 - FY24 +10.5M Second Maungaturoto - Mangawhai sub-transmission line

To address high levels of growth in the area, and to meet Northpower’s security of supply standards.

FY20 - FY29 +4.9M Provision for growth in customer connections

Updated forecasts in line with recent growth trends.

FY21 - FY25 +4.5M Provision for Bream Bay area development (second transformer, switchboards)

Revision of residential and commercial growth forecasts for the area indicate a need to revisit and consolidate investment plans.

FY20 - FY29 +2.7M Increase in overhead to underground relocations in specific coastal areas

To address asset corrosion, improve reliability and extend asset lifecycles.

FY20 - FY29 +1.3M Increase distribution transformer relocation from overhead platforms

Acceleration of targeted safety programme.

FY20-FY29 +3.9M Buildings, civil and electrical contractor cost increases

Reflects uplift in costs across industry, following cost validation exercise.

FY19 - FY29 -12.3M Project deferrals Largely due to revision of growth forecasts deferring investment need out of the planning period.

The resulting investment profile sees an uplift in investment related to Network Development compared with our 2019 AMP Update, particularly in the first five years of the planning period.

1 For the comparison period FY20 to FY292 Includes the following investment categories: consumer connections, system growth, asset relocations, reliability,

safety & environment)

Northpower Limited | Asset Management Plan Update 2020-2030

10-Year Network Development Investment Profile (2020 AMP vs. 2019 AMP) - $M

Legend

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

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FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29

0

5

10

15

20

25


-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35


Network Development - 2020 AMPNetwork Development - 2019 AMP

Asset Life Cycle - 2020 AMPAsset Life Cycle - 2019 AMP

2019 OPEX Forecast

2020 OPEX Forecast

2019 CAPEX Forecast

2020 CAPEX Forecast

2.3 Material Changes to Asset Life Cycle Management

Overall $24.7M increase in the 10-year Asset Life Cycle Management profile compared with the 2019 Asset Management Plan Update.3

Our latest review of our Asset Life Cycle Management Plan noted a material increase in building, civils and electrical contractor market rates. We have validated that these increases are real and likely to persist into the future even with competitive pressure. We will continue to look at options available to ensure these project works are delivered in the most cost effective manner.

We have also revised and improved our overhead inspection standard to improve the quality of inspection data received, which in turn enables enhanced asset condition assessments and replacement decisions. The key changes proposed are set out in the table below:

Material Changes to Asset Life Cycle Management Plan4

Year Change ($) Description of Change Reason for change FY22 - FY23 +2.5M New mobile substation To enhance restoration of supply in fault

situations and enable supply to be maintained during rural substation maintenance.

FY20 - FY29 +2.3M Oil filled RMUs Increase in rate of replacement of RMUs as a result of condition based assessments.

FY21 - FY29 +1.3M New allocation corrective Capex - 110kV towers & equipment

To reflect increased need following condition assessments.

FY21 - FY27 +1.2M New network clearances 3D model (LiDAR)

To enable enhanced management of vegetation priorities and asset clearances.

FY22 - FY24 +1.2M Asset management system replacement

Replacement of end of life system.

FY21 - FY29 +2.5M Provision for overhead switch replacements

Increased need based on emerging defect rates in existing overhead switches.

FY20 - FY29 +15.7M Buildings, civil and electrical contractor cost increases

Reflects existing uplift in costs across industry, following cost validation exercise.

FY19 - FY29 -6.0M Targeted deferrals Result of validation of asset condition and resulting amendments to the asset’s Health Indices.

Section 2

3 For the comparison period FY20 to FY294 Includes the following investment categories: asset replacement and renewal, non-network assets


The resulting investment profile sees an uplift in investment relating to Asset Lifecycle Management, compared with our 2019 AMP Update across the planning period.

10-Year Asset Life Cycle Management Investment Profile (2020 AMP vs. 2019 AMP) - $M

Legend

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2019 OPEX Forecast

2020 OPEX Forecast

2019 CAPEX Forecast

2020 CAPEX Forecast

2.4 Material Changes to Expenditure Forecasts (Schedule 11a and 11b)Compared to the 2019 AMP Update we are forecasting an increase across both Capex and Opex expenditure.

Forecast expenditure 2019 AMP Update vs. 2020 AMP Update

Legend

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2019 OPEX Forecast

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2019 CAPEX Forecast

2020 CAPEX Forecast

Section 2


Capex Expenditure Forecast The 10-year forecast capital expenditure is $243.0M, up $42.7M compared with the 2019 Asset Management Plan Update.5

We expect it to return to similar levels as the 2019 AMP in the second half of the planning period.

Capital Expenditure Forecast (FY21-FY30) $M

0

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Reliability, Safety and Environment

Asset Relocations

System Growth

Consumer Connection

Non-Network Assets

Asset Replacement & Renewal

2019 AMP Update

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25

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Service interruptions and emergencies Vegetation management

Asset replacement and renewal

Routine and corrective maintenance and inspection

System operations and network support Business support

2019 AMP Update


Operating Expenditure Forecast (FY21-FY30) $M

Opex Expenditure Forecast The 10-year forecast operating expenditure is $279.4M, up $31.0M compared with the 2019 Asset Management Plan Update.6


0

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Reliability, Safety and Environment

Asset Relocations

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Non-Network Assets

Asset Replacement & Renewal

2019 AMP Update

0

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25

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Routine and corrective maintenance and inspection

System operations and network support Business support

2019 AMP Update



Section 2

5 For the comparison period FY20 to FY29 6 For the comparison period FY20 to FY29


Responding to service interruptions and emergencies

+$2.11M Uplift to address aging network and an allowance for increased faults due to more significant weather events stressing end of life overhead assets.

Vegetation management +$4.80M An uplift in vegetation management to deliver a 5-year vegetation management cycle (better aligned with tree growth rates).

Routine and corrective maintenance and inspection activities

+$5.47M Increase in quantities of corrective maintenance to ensure focus remains on ensuring timeliness of rectifying defects and enhancing maintenance programmes, as well as an increase in contractor costs.


+$573k Impact of contractor rates review for asset replacement and renewal activities.

System operations and network support

+$2.13M Reflects ongoing investment in ADMS and maintaining supporting systems, as well as enhanced operational capability and resiliency.

Business support +$15.94M Reflects increases in direct and indirect costs to support the network.

2.5 Material Changes to Asset Management PracticesThe 2019 AMP Update outlined a number of initiatives aimed to improve our asset management processes. Further refinement over the last year includes:

• Revision of our Network organisational structure to improve focus and outcomes in asset management and delivery of capital and maintenance works. This is supplemented by additional resources to support the asset strategy, delivery and operations functions.

• Refresh of the overhead inspection standards to facilitate better information capture, and ultimately asset management decisions.

• We have further developed our Asset Health Indices and Asset Criticality processes and framework. Several assets have had condition assessments undertaken (including some sub-transmission conductors and zone sub-station transformers), resulting in a re-classification of the asset’s Health Indices (and an adjustment to the investment plan).

Section 2 Section 2


Section 3: Schedules

Section 3


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Section 3

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Section 3


CommerceCom

miss

ionInform

ationDisclosureTem

plate

NPAM

PYB

Disc

losureSched

ules202

0v1.4.xlsx

10S11b

.Ope

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Com

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ref

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Section 3


CommerceCom

miss

ionInform

ationDisclosureTem

plate

NPAM

PYB

Disc

losureSched

ules202

0v1.4.xlsx

11S12a.AssetCon

ditio

n

Com

pany

Nam

eAM

PPl

anni

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ON

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ON

sch

ref

7 8 9

Volta

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Concretepoles/stee

lstructure

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%

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3%

11All

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%

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17%

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uctor

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0kV+

con

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ble

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HVSubtransmiss

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ble

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17HV

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ble

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arinecable

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ildings

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Zone

substatio

nsw

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ear

22/33kVCB

(Outdo

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.66%

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%

-4

-28

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ear

33kV

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dMou

nted

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ear

33kV

RMU

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--

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50/66/11

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ear

50/66/11

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(Outdo

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40

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-33

HVZone

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itchg

ear

3.3/6.6/11

/22kVCB

(groun

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11.72%

15

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18

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54

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34HV

Zone

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ear

3.3/6.6/11

/22kVCB

(polemou

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--

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35

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Ltd

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eda

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llinform

ationshou

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inth

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Pan

dtheexpe

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Section 3


CommerceCom

miss

ionInform

ationDisclosureTem

plate

NPAM

PYB

Disc

losureSched

ules202

0v1.4.xlsx

12S12a.AssetCon

ditio

n

Com

pany

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eAM

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ref

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Ltd

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ationprovided

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Pan

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assets,th

atareexpressed

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36 37 38

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39HV

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40

HVDistrib

utionLine

Distrib

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41HV

Distrib

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Distrib

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HVDistrib

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50

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3.3/6.6/11

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0.96

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8.17

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9.14

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51HV

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All

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CableTu

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Section 3


CommerceCom

miss

ionInform

ationDisclosureTem

plate

NPAM

PYB

Disc

losureSched

ules202

0v1.4.xlsx

13S12b

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acity

Forecast

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ngatap

ere

78

N-1

692

%

10

63%Noconstraintwith

in+5years

Load

tran

sferto

new

Mau

nuSub

station

19Mau

ngaturoto

68

N-1

285

%

887

%Noconstraintwith

in+5years

20Ngu

nguru

3-N

3-

--Other

SecurityOfSup

ply

21One

rahi

815

N-1Switcha

ble

655

%

15

58%Noconstraintwith

in+5years

22Pa

ruaBa

y3

-N

3-

--Other

SecurityOfSup

ply

23Po

roti

3-N-1Switcha

ble

3-

--Noconstraintwith

in+5years

24Ru

akaka

710

N-1

571

%

10

78%Noconstraintwith

in+5years

25Ru

awai

3-N

3-

--

Noconstraintwith

in+5years

26Tikipu

nga

15

20N-1

13

76%

20

82%Noconstraintwith

in+5years

27Wha

ngareiSou

th12

10

N-1

10

119%

10

11

4%Noconstraintwith

in+5years

Load

tran

sferto

new

Mau

nuSub

station

29¹

Exte

ndfo

reca

stcap

acity

tabl

eas

nec

essa

ryto

disc

lose

all

capa

city

by

each

zone

subs

tatio

n

Thissche

dulere

quire

sabreakdo

wnofcurrentand

forecastcap

acity

and

utilisa

tionfore

achzone

substatio

nan

dcurren

tdistrib

utiontran

sformercap

acity

.The

dataprovided

shou

ldbeconsisten

twith

theinform

ationprovided

inth

eAM

P.In

form

ation

provided

inth

istableshou

ldre

lateto

theop

erationofth

ene

tworkinitsn

ormalsteadystateconfiguration.

Section 3


CommerceCom

miss

ionInform

ationDisclosureTem

plate

NPAM

PYB

Disc

losureSched

ules202

0v1.4.xlsx

14S12c.Dem

andForecast

Com

pany

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eAM

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ngP

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d

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DULE

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ORT

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ORK

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AND

sch

ref

712

c(i):

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sum

erC

onne

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ns8

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bero

fICP

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nect

edin

yea

rby

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umer

type

9Cu

rren

tYea

rCY

CY+1

CY+2

CY+3

CY+4

CY+5

10fory

eare

nded

31M

ar2

031

Mar

21

31M

ar2

231

Mar

23

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ar2

431

Mar

25

11Co

nsum

erty

pesd

efin

edb

yED

B*12

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stria

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arket

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1,00

01,02

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018

*inc

lude

add

ition

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ded

19Di

strib

uted

gen

erat

ion

20Num

bero

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nections

169

200

200

200

200

200

21Ca

pacityofd

istrib

uted

gen

erationinstalledinyear(MVA

)1

11

11

1

2212

c(ii)

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tem

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and

23Cu

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tYea

rCY

CY+1

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24M

axim

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iden

tsys

tem

dem

and

(MW

)fory

eare

nded

31M

ar2

031

Mar

21

31M

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231

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23

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ar2

431

Mar

25

25GX

Pde

man

d17

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219

426

plus

Distrib

uted

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erationou

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44

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and

176

187

189

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198

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ssNettran

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umes

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ried

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liedfrom

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less

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exportsto

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-33

plus

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liedfrom

distrib

uted

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22

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ppliedto(from)o

therEDB

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tric

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nter

ing

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ply

toIC

Ps1,13

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less

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livered

toIC

Ps1,10

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437

Loss

es32

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38

39

41

42

38 39

Load

fact

or73

%

71%

72%

71%

72%

72%

40Lo

ssra

tio2.8%

3.1%

3.2%

3.3%

3.3%

3.4%

Nor

thpo

wer

Ltd

1A

pril

2020

–3

1M

arch

203

0

Num

bero

fcon

nect

ions

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dulere

quire

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recastofn

ewcon

nections(b

yconsum

erty

pe),pe

akdem

andan

den

ergyvolum

esfo

rthe

disc

losureyeara

nda5yearp

lann

ingpe

riod.The

forecastss

houldbe

con

sistentwith

thesupp

ortin

ginform

ationseto

utinth

eAM

Pas

wellasthe

assum

ptionsusedindevelop

ingtheexpe

nditu

refo

recastsinSche

dule11aand

Sched

ule11

ban

dthecapa

cityand

utilisa

tionforecastsinSche

dule12b

.

Section 3


CommerceCom

miss

ionInform

ationDisclosureTem

plate

NPAM

PYB

Disc

losureSched

ules202

0v1.4.xlsx

15S12d

.ReliabilityForecast

Com

pany

Nam

eAM

PPl

anni

ngP

erio

dNet

wor

k/S

ub-n

etw

ork

Nam

e

SCHE

DULE

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ORT

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TERR

UPT

ION

SAN

DDU

RATI

ON

sch

ref

8Cu

rren

tYea

rCY

CY+1

CY+2

CY+3

CY+4

CY+5

9fory

eare

nded

31M

ar2

031

Mar

21

31M

ar2

231

Mar

23

31M

ar2

431

Mar

25

10SA

IDI

11ClassB

(plann

edinterrup

tionsonthene

twork)

114.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

12ClassC

(unp

lann

edinterrup

tionsonthene

twork)

151.0

105.0

105.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

13SA

IFI

14ClassB

(plann

edinterrup

tionsonthene

twork)

0.46

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

0.50

15

ClassC

(unp

lann

edinterrup

tionsonthene

twork)

3.15

2.75

2.75

2.75

2.75

2.75

Nor

thpo

wer

Ltd

1A

pril

2020

–3

1M

arch

203

0

Thissche

dulere

quire

safo

recastofSAIFIand

SAIDIfo

rdisc

losureand

a5yearp

lann

ingpe

riod.The

forecastss

houldbe

con

sistentwith

thesupp

ortin

ginform

ationseto

utinth

eAM

Paswellasthe

assum

edim

pactofp

lann

ed

andun

plan

nedSA

IFIand

SAIDIontheexpe

nditu

resforecastp

rovide

dinSched

ule11

aan

dSche

dule11b

.

Section 3


Electricity Distribution Information Disclosure Determination 2012 – (consolidated in 2015)

1. This Schedule requires EDBs to provide explanatory notes to reports prepared in accordance with clause 2.6.6.

2. This Schedule is mandatory—EDBs must provide the explanatory comment specified below, in accordance with clause 2.7.2. This information is not part of the audited disclosure information, and so is not subject to the assurance requirements specified in section 2.8.

Commentary on difference between nominal and constant price capital expenditure forecasts (Schedule 11a)

3. In the box below, comment on the difference between nominal and constant price capital expenditure for the disclosure year and 10 year planning period, as disclosed in Schedule 11a.

Box 1: Commentary on difference between nominal and constant price capital expenditure forecasts The differences between nominal and constant prices is based on the application of an escalation factor using Reserve Bank economic projections.

Commentary on difference between nominal and constant price capital expenditure forecasts (Schedule 11b)

4. In the box below, comment on the difference between nominal and constant price operational expenditure for the disclosure year and 10 year planning period, as disclosed in Schedule 11b.

Box 2: Commentary on difference between nominal and constant price operational expenditure forecasts The differences between nominal and constant prices is based on the application of an escalation factor using Reserve Bank economic projections.

Schedule 14a: Mandatory Explanatory Notes on Forecast Information


Section 4: Director Certification

We, Richard Booth and Mark Trigg, being Directors of Northpower Limited certify that, having made all reasonable enquiry, to the best of our knowledge:

a) The following attached information of Northpower Limited prepared for the purposes of clauses 2.6.1, 2.6.3, 2.6.6 and 2.7.2 of the Electricity Distribution Information Disclosure Determination 2012 in all material respects complies with that determination.

b) The prospective financial or non-financial information included in the attached information has been measured on a basis consistent with regulatory requirements or recognised industry standards.

c) The forecasts in Schedules 11a, 11b, 12a, 12b, 12c and 12d are based on objective and reasonable assumptions, which both align with Northpower Limited’s corporate vision and strategy and are documented in retained records.

Director Director

Date: 25/03/2020 Date: 25/03/2020

Director Certification


Section 4: Director Certification

Head Office:Northpower Ltd28 Mt Pleasant Road,Raumanga, Whangarei 0110,New Zealand

Postal Address:Northpower LtdPrivate Bag 9018,Whangarei Mail Centre 0148,New Zealand

Ph: 09 430 1803Fax: 09 430 1804Email: [email protected]: northpower.com

asset management plan update - northpower

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