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WP 29 26 April 2010

UNITED NATIONS STATISTICAL COMMISSION and ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE CONFERENCE OF EUROPEAN STATISTICIANS

STATISTICAL OFFICE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION (EUROSTAT)

Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections (28-30 April 2010, Lisbon, Portugal)

Item 10 – Small population and sub-national population projections

Austrian Regional Population Projections below NUTS-3

Alexander Hanika, Statistics Austria 1. INTRODUCTION The intention of this paper is to describe the work on a small area population projection for Austria by its 35 NUTS 3-regions and 124 districts (including 23 districts of Vienna) by age and sex up to the year 2050. The report illustrates how regions are projected to become demographically diverse over the next decades. In an additional step which will be done after finishing population projections future development of number and structure of the labour force as well as household composition in Austria and its 124 regions should be predicted. Our projections can be used as basic input to many federal, state, and local projection models that produce detailed statistics on education, labour force, health care and other topics. Thus, the results are useful to regional planners in both public and private sectors. Table 1: Assumptions for the Austrian population projection on NUTS 2-level (mean variant)

Para-meter

AustriaBurgen-

landCarinthia

LowerAustria

UpperAustria

Salz-burg

Styria TyrolVorarl-berg

Vienna

Total fertility rate2001 1,33 1,23 1,32 1,35 1,41 1,35 1,23 1,33 1,51 1,31

2008 1,41 1,31 1,40 1,46 1,51 1,43 1,32 1,39 1,51 1,39

2010 1,40 1,27 1,36 1,44 1,49 1,42 1,31 1,40 1,52 1,39

2030 1,50 1,41 1,48 1,53 1,56 1,52 1,44 1,50 1,58 1,49

Mean age of fertility2001 28,4 28,3 28,6 28,2 28,3 28,6 28,2 28,9 28,8 28,3

2008 29,5 29,4 29,3 29,4 29,3 29,6 29,4 29,8 29,8 29,5

2010 29,6 29,6 29,5 29,5 29,5 29,8 29,5 30,0 30,0 29,7

2030 31,0 31,0 31,0 30,9 30,9 31,0 30,9 31,3 31,2 31,0

Male life expectancy2001 75,6 75,1 76,1 75,6 75,8 76,5 75,6 76,7 75,8 74,8

2008 77,6 76,6 77,6 77,0 78,2 79,2 77,3 79,3 78,3 77,0

2050 85,9 85,4 86,1 85,6 86,2 86,7 85,9 87,2 86,8 85,3

Female life expectancy2001 81,6 81,9 82,4 81,2 82,0 81,8 81,9 82,5 82,6 80,7

2008 83,0 83,0 83,7 82,5 83,0 83,9 83,4 83,7 84,1 82,1

2050 89,5 89,5 90,2 89,1 89,7 90,0 89,9 90,5 90,4 88,6

International immigration2002 108.125 1.980 3.861 13.588 13.103 6.986 10.330 10.652 5.157 42.468

2008 110.074 2.762 4.349 13.855 13.539 7.141 10.958 10.665 5.246 41.559

2009 100.000 2.000 4.000 12.900 13.100 6.800 9.700 9.300 5.000 37.200

2010 102.000 2.040 4.080 13.158 13.362 6.936 9.894 9.486 5.100 37.944

2011 106.000 2.120 4.240 13.674 13.886 7.208 10.282 9.858 5.300 39.432

2012 110.000 2.200 4.400 14.190 14.410 7.480 10.670 10.230 5.500 40.920

2013 110.000 2.200 4.400 14.190 14.410 7.480 10.670 10.230 5.500 40.920

2014 111.000 2.220 4.440 14.319 14.541 7.548 10.767 10.323 5.550 41.292

2015 112.000 2.240 4.480 14.448 14.672 7.616 10.864 10.416 5.600 41.664

2016 111.000 2.220 4.440 14.319 14.541 7.548 10.767 10.323 5.550 41.292

2017 108.000 2.160 4.320 13.932 14.148 7.344 10.476 10.044 5.400 40.176

2018 106.000 2.120 4.240 13.674 13.886 7.208 10.282 9.858 5.300 39.432

2019 105.000 2.100 4.200 13.545 13.755 7.140 10.185 9.765 5.250 39.060

2020 104.000 2.080 4.160 13.416 13.624 7.072 10.088 9.672 5.200 38.688

2030 105.000 2.100 4.200 13.545 13.755 7.140 10.185 9.765 5.250 39.060

2050 110.000 2.200 4.400 14.190 14.410 7.480 10.670 10.230 5.500 40.920S: Statistics Austria, Population Projection 2009

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The present small-area population projection is done on behalf of the “Austrian Conference on Spatial Planning” (ÖROK). It should be consistent with the official population projection by Statistics Austria which was published in fall 2009. This is guaranteed due to the same methodical approaches as well as using the same multiregional population model (SIKURS 8.9). Assumptions concerning fertility, mortality, interregional migration and international migration could therefore be synchronized. Moreover, due to final adjustment procedures it will be assured that the results of the population projection by this so called ÖROK-Projection are in concordance with the corresponding main (medium) projection variant by Statistics Austria (top-down approach). Besides the main scenario, nine alternative scenarios were calculated by Statistics Austria on NUTS 2-level comprising different demographic assumptions with high, medium and low variants. At the time being calculations on the small area projections are not finished yet. Therefore this paper describes primarily the framework of the superior population projection for Austria and its nine Länder (NUTS 2-regions) as well as the assumptions for the small area projection. Preliminary results for the future development of the 124 districts are shown at the end of the paper. 2. POPULATION PROJECTION FOR AUSTRIA ON NUTS 2-LEVEL Austria had a population of 8.34 million in 2008, the reference year for the new population projection. According to the assumptions on future changes in fertility, mortality and migration (see table 1), the total population will increase to 9.05 million people (+8.5 per cent) until 2030 and to 9.47 million (+13.6 per cent) in 2050 (table 2). This increment of growth is mainly based on immigration (see graph 1). The balance of births and deaths will be equalised more or less for the next decades. After the year 2030 the baby boom of the 1960eth will reach higher age. Therefore deaths will overhang births (graph 2).

Graph 1: International migration for Austria 1960 – 2050 (medium variant of projection)

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Austrian fertility is expected to increase slightly from about 1.4 children per woman to 1.5 in the year 2030 and will stay constant afterwards (Total fertility rate; TFR). In the same time span mean age of fertility (based on age specific fertility rates; ASFR) will increase to 31.0 years. Trends to higher education, increasing female labour force participation and all the problems of combining carrier and family should involve those developments, by postponing births to a higher age. On NUTS 2-level further convergence by 1/3 of the current disparities is expected for TFR as well as ASFR.

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Graph 2: Births and deaths in Austria 1950 – 2050 (medium variant of projection)

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Graph 3: Population growth 2008-2050 by NUTS 2-regions

(medium variant of projection; 2008=100)

95

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2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 2048

Austria

Burgenland

Carinthia

Lower Austria

Upper Austria

Salzburg

Styria

Tyrol

Vorarlberg

Vienna

Based on a regression model for age and sex specific mortality rates from the period 1970-2008 life expectancy is extrapolated to increase from 77.6 years (2008) to 85.9 years (2050) for males and from 83.0 to 89.5 years for females. On NUTS 2-level (9 provinces) regional disparities are kept constant for males but are reduced by 15 per cent for females, which is a conclusion of analysing the historical time series.

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Assumptions on international immigration are somewhat based on expectations due to restrictions on the labour market affecting immigrants and long term decrease of the labour force. Therefore some up and downs are assessed, reflecting the end of interim regulations for members of new EU countries (2015) and the long term decline of the labour force (2050). The age and sex specific allocation of immigration is based on data for the years 2002-2008. Regional allocations of immigration show a very stable pattern. Vienna, the capital city of Austria gathers about 40% of the international immigration. The long term allocation rates are adjusted by a mixed flow/stock approach by foreign born population which leads in the long run to slightly smaller allocation rates for Vienna. According the modelling of international emigration age and sex specific emigration rates are kept constant based on the figures for the years 2002-2008. Also for internal migration age, sex and direction specific emigration rates are kept constant based on the same time span for which the new Austrian migration statistics are established. Following the main scenario, the population development will vary substantially among the nine provinces during the next decades (graph 3). Vienna, the capital of Austria (+23 per cent), and Lower Austria (+21 per cent) are expected to have the most marked population growth till 2050, followed by Burgenland and Vorarlberg (+14 per cent), Tyrol (+13 per cent), Upper Austria (+10 per cent), Salzburg (+8 per cent) and Styria (+5 per cent). Carinthia is the only province being expected to lose some population up to the year 2050 (-2 per cent). 3. CHANGES IN THE AGE STRUCTURE OF THE POPULATION Table 2: Projected population structure 2008-2075 for Austria (main variant)

Total0 - 19years

20 - 64years

65+years

0 - 19years

20 - 64years

65+years

2008 8,336.549 1,770.673 5,127.992 1,437.884 21,2 61,5 17,2 41,1

2010 8,396.760 1,744.077 5,177.618 1,475.065 20,8 61,7 17,6 41,5

2015 8,574.121 1,686.985 5,295.994 1,591.142 19,7 61,8 18,6 42,4

2020 8,748.917 1,682.845 5,353.623 1,712.449 19,2 61,2 19,6 43,3

2025 8,903.569 1,702.704 5,295.172 1,905.693 19,1 59,5 21,4 44,1

2030 9,048.365 1,723.455 5,167.919 2,156.991 19,0 57,1 23,8 44,8

2035 9,174.298 1,732.243 5,062.481 2,379.574 18,9 55,2 25,9 45,5

2040 9,287.466 1,727.050 5,054.560 2,505.856 18,6 54,4 27,0 46,1

2045 9,386.774 1,719.985 5,089.417 2,577.372 18,3 54,2 27,5 46,6

2050 9,467.172 1,720.522 5,092.697 2,653.953 18,2 53,8 28,0 46,9

absolut in %

S: Statistics Austria, Population Projection 2009

Meanage of

populationYear

Population by broad age groups

Children and youngsters less than 20 years are projected to account for a slightly smaller proportion of the total population, namely 18 per cent in 2050 as compared to 21 per cent in 2008 (compare graph 4 and 5). The majority of the provinces will follow this trend, except Vienna, where rising proportions are expected. As the “baby-boom generation” (those born between 1955 and 1965) will reach the retirement age after 2015, the size of the elderly population (ages 65 and over) is projected to increase in all of the nine provinces. Thus for Austria as a whole, the proportion of the elderly population will grow from 17 per cent in 2008 to 28 per cent by 2050. By then, Burgenland and Carinthia (each 32 per cent) and Styria (30 per cent) are expected to remain the “oldest” provinces while the western part of Austria (Tyrol and Vorarlberg) as well as Vienna will still rank as the “youngest” regions. Vienna will hold a share of 23 per cent elderly people by 2050. The average age of Austria’s population will significantly increase over the next decades from 41.1 (2008) to 46.8 years in the year 2050.

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Graph 4: Population development 1950-2050 for Austria (medium variant of projection)

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Graph 5: Age structure 2008, 2015, 2030 and 2050 by NUTS 2-regions (medium variant of projection)

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4. SMALL AREA POPULATION PROJECTION (ÖROK-PROJECTION) The small area population projection is calculated in one single variant, based on the main scenario by Statistics Austria described above. It covers 124 projection regions which represent 98 administration units outside Vienna as well as 23 districts in the city of Vienna. Some of those very small districts are pooled to a larger projection unit. Six districts had to be divided into two parts in order to be able to aggregate the 35 regions on NUTS 3-level. The smallest projection unit has a population of 16 500 persons, the largest one covers 254 000 inhabitants at the time being (Graz, the capital of Styria). 5. REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH As shown in graph 6 regional recent population growth varies enormously among the 124 regions. The highest increases of the last two decades between census 1991 and 1 January 2009 occurred around the big cities of Austria, whereas the cities themselves did not grow in the same extend. Some of the cities (capitals of provinces) even stagnated or lost some population. Therefore the highest increases are shown for the regions around the cities of Vienna in the north-east of Austria, Graz (the capital of Styria in the south-east), Linz (Upper Austria), Salzburg and Innsbruck (Tyrol). The growth rates for the 23 districts of Vienna are separately extracted in the graphs.

Graph 6: Population growth 1991/2009 by regions

On the other hand economically underdeveloped regions of old industries as well as regions outskirts suffer population decrease combined with progressive ageing processes. Those regions are found at the borders of Austria, particularly situated near to the former iron curtain. Also the old industrial regions of Styria lose population. Central districts of Vienna lose population, the outskirts grow. 6. REGIONAL ASSUMPTIONS ON FERTILITY In comparison of the periods 1988/94 and 2002/08 regional disparities in the TFR decreased (Graph 7). The overall level of the TFR went down. In the first period the range went from 1.07 children per women to 1.90, in the second period the extreme values represented 1.05 and 1.62. Regional fertility rates on the level of 124 districts have to be projected fitting to those given for the higher-level NUTS 2 region. Therefore relative differences of regional TFR’s and the corresponding values on NUTS 2-level for this two periods were calculated. Supported by a cluster analysis 7 groups were identified, namely not converging or slightly diverging on a higher or lower level than the NUTS 2-value, converging to the NUTS 2-average from a higher or lower

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level and a crossing over in both directions. The 7th group consists of two cities (Linz and Innsbruck), which have shown 1988/94 a very low level of fertility and have converged strongly to the level of its NUTS 2-region in the second period of observation.

Graph 7: Total fertility rates 1984/94 and 2002/08 by regions

For those regions going to the NUTS 2-level a further convergence of 40 per cent based on the differences 2002/08 until the year 2030 is assumed. For Linz and Innsbruck the assumption on convergence is 70%. No convergence is taken for those regions crossing from a higher to a lower fertility level (or vice versa). Small convergence of 10 per cent will be assumed for those regions showing constant or slightly diverging differences.

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7. REGIONAL ASSUMPTIONS ON MORTALITY

Graph 8: Male life expectancy 1984/94 and 2002/08 by regions

As shown in graph 8 and 9, life expectancy increased explicitly for females and males over all regions. Those districts which show no convergence to the life expectancy of its associated NUTS 2-region are expected to hold differences constant. For regions showing convergence with the related values of its province relative differences in life expectancy will be bisected until the year 2050. This could be different for the both sexes. Therefore in some NUTS 2-regions (Länder) male discrepancies are constant but females converge or vice versa.

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Graph 9: Female life expectancy 1984/94 and 2002/08 by regions

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Graph 10: Allocation of immigration 2002/08 by regions (per 1.000)

Graph 11: Emigration rates 2002/08 by regions

In the long run age and sex specific emigration rates are kept constant as derived from migration statistics 2002/08. In 2002 new migration statistics were developed based on the population register. For the times before no valid migration data are available for Austria. The pictures of immigration and emigration are more or less congruent. Those areas with high shares of immigration show also higher emigration due to return migration or emigration of the autochthonous population (graph 11).

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Graph 12: Internal emigration rates 2002/08 by regions

Graph 13: Internal immigration rates 2002/08 by regions

As applied in the higher-level NUTS 2-projection also on regional level internal migration is predicted by constant age, sex and direction specific migration rates based on the actual levels as shown by Austrian migration statistics for the years 2002-2008. Graphs 12 to 14 picture the total rates for internal emigration and immigration as well as the balance rate per 1 000 inhabitants. Highest rates for internal out- and in-migration are counted for the urban areas. Here the centres as well as their surrounding regions show the highest mobility. The absolute winners of internal migration are primarily the environs of the big cities like Vienna, Graz and Linz. The districts in the centre of Vienna show an negative internal migration balance.

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For the 23 districts of Vienna additional attention is drawn to new constructed buildings being settled in the next years. Our projection model SIKURS supports some modifications in the matrix of internal (but also international) migration which allows filling those areas finishing the construction of a significant number of new flats in future with population outside from regular internal migration.

Graph 14: Balance rates of internal migration 2002/08 by regions

8. THE FUTURE POPULATION DEVELOPMENT IN AUSTRIA ON REG IONAL LEVEL (PRELIMINARY RESULTS)

Graph 15: Total population growth 2002-2030 by regions (preliminary results)

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Opposite trends will characterize the regional population development of Austria in the next decades. While the number of inhabitants will increase in some regions significantly, in some other regions of the country a population loss is predicted. The urban agglomerations will be the „winner" of the future population development. Due to economical tendencies of the last years (increase of the service sectors, internationalization of enterprises), cities and suburban areas are attractive both for interregional and international migrants. In all urban agglomerations in Austria the population will increase considerably, especially in the “Vienna Region” and in the region of Graz. However, a counter rotating development is also expected: While the inner cities might lose population, the suburban municipalities will face a strong population growth (graph 15). Regions outside of commuter belts of Vienna and outside of other regional capital cities will see a population decline. These areas are too far away to commuting and probable less attractive to reactivate new labour markets. In those regions the population will decrease like in Waldviertel in the north of Austria, in the northern part of Styria or in peripheral sited alpine districts in Carinthia and East-Tyrol. Up to the year 2030 the total change of population base on our 124 regions will vary between -11 and +37 per cent. In the longer run the number of children and youngsters beyond 20 year will decline in most of Austrian’s regions. This is due to the ageing of the baby boom. Numerically smaller generations of parents steaming from the births decline in the last decades are now starting their families (see graph 16).

Graph 16: Growth of population aged 0-19 years 2002-2030 by regions (preliminary results)

Regions with increasing numbers of younger people are the cities and their environs. This is a consequence on immigration and internal migration as well as rising fertility in urban areas. Immigrants coming from South East European countries have higher fertility which inflects the absolute number of population aged up to 19 years. On the other hand also young families with children move from the cities into the more green surrounding areas. The region with the highest increase of younger persons until 2030 will see a plus of 32 per cent. The strongest decline is forecasted by -29 per cent.

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Graph 17: Growth of population aged 20-64 years 2002-2030 by regions (preliminary results)

Working age population will also decline in rural areas but will grow in most of the urban regions. The suburbanisation of Vienna escalates more and more. In the meantime not only the surrounding districts of Lower Austria but also the northern parts of the Burgenland are affected by this development. The picture of Vienna which looks like a muffin is similar concerning all ages. The central districts lose population in total, but also in the age groups of children and working age population. The increase of elderly people is somewhat smaller. On the other hand the districts in the periphery with more free areas for new buildings will gain population. The range of changing in the regional working age population for the next two decades runs from -18 to +28 per cent.

Graph 18: Growth of population aged 65+ years 2002-2030 by regions (preliminary results)

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The number of population aged 65 years or more will strongly increase in all 124 projection districts of Austria. There is no region having forecasted a smaller figure of elderly persons in the year 2030 than observed today. The smallest increases will see the regions with population decline. Here the increment of elderly people is retarded by out migration. Up to the year 2030 the regional increase of persons older than 65 years will vary between +9 and +85 per cent. 9. REFERENCES

• D. Ediev: Extrapolative Projections of Mortality: Towards a More Consistent Method. Part I: The Central Scenario. Vienna Institute of Demography, Working Paper 3/2008, Vienna 2008.

• A. Hanika, G. Biffl, H. Fassmann, J. Kytir, G. Lebhart, St. Marik, R. Münz: ÖROK-Prognosen 2001-2031, Teil 1: Bevölkerung und Arbeitskräfte nach Regionen und Bezirken Österreichs; Österreichische Raumordnungskonferenz (ÖROK), Schriftenreihe Nr. 166/I; Vienna 2004 (Summary in English).

• A. Hanika, E. Bauer, H. Fassmann, G. Lebhart St. Marik, R. Münz: ÖROK-Prognosen 2001-2031, Teil 2: Haushalte und Wohnungsbedarf nach Regionen und Bezirken Österreichs; Österreichische Raumordnungskonferenz (ÖROK), Schriftenreihe Nr. 166/II; Vienna 2005 (Summary in English).

• A. Hanika, J. Klotz, St. Marik-Lebeck: Zukünftige Bevölkerungsentwicklung Österreichs 2009 bis 2050 (2075), Neue Bevölkerungsprognose für Österreich und die Bundesländer; in Statistische Nachrichten 11/2009, p963-985, Statistics Austria 2009 (Summary in English).

• Kommunales Statistisches Informationssystem KOSIS Verbund: Bevölkerungsprognoseprogramm SIKURS 8.9, http://www.staedtestatistik.de/sikurs.html

• A. Rogers, J. Little: Parameterizing age patterns of demographic rates with the multiexponential model schedule. Mathematical Population Studies 3, 1994, p175-195.

• Statistics Austria, Bevölkerungsstand 1.1.2009, inkl. Revision seit 1.1.2008. Statistics Austria, Vienna 2009 (Summary in English).

• Statistics Austria, Demographisches Jahrbuch 2008. Statistics Austria, Vienna 2009 (Summary in English).

• Statistics Austria, Wanderungsstatistik 2008, inkl. Revision 2002-2007. Statistics Austria, Vienna 2009 (Summary in English).