aviva index opportunities fund standard presentation - 310311
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Aviva Investors Index Opportunities Fund
April 2011
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Intended audience
This document is for investment professionals and/or qualified investors only. The content is not approved for use with retail investors or pension scheme members
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We are proud to be a part of Aviva plc
Aviva’s “Third Pillar” Over £259 billion under management Top 20 global asset manager**
Operations in 22 locations in 16 countries
c1,400 employees worldwide
Long-termsavings
General insurance
Assetmanagement
World’s sixth-largest
insurance group *
54,000 employees
50 m customers worldwide
Source: Aviva Investors, * Based on gross worldwide premiums for the year ended 31 December 2009, all other data as at 31 December 2010.**Pensions and Investments – top money manager 31 December 2009
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We offer our clients expertise across all asset classes
Asset class AuM in £mFixed income 151,623
Equities 56,344
Real estate 23,288
Cash 18,629
Other 9,903
Total 259,787
· Dedicated to building focused investment solutions for clients using all major asset classes
· Innovative new products to meet client needs
· Strong focus on corporate governance as a founding signatory to the UN Principles for Responsible Investment
Source: Aviva Investors, all data as at 31 December 2010.
Fixed income58%
Equities22%
Real estate9%
Liquidity7%
Other4%
% AUM by asset class
Aviva Investors Index Opportunities Fund
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Why Aviva Investors to exploit index anomalies?
· Absolute return product exploiting a transparent, easily understood opportunity
· Strategy managed by an experienced and stable team
· Short term opportunity offers even more attractive risk adjusted return.
A fund created from experience
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Quant investing requires a highly skilled, experienced and stable team
Working together for a number of years at Aviva Investors
Experience data as at 31 December 2010
Dr. Iyad Farah Director of Quant Solutions(15 yrs industry, 10yrs Aviva)
Amelia SavoryQuant Fund Manager(3, 3)
Richard SaldanhaQuant Fund Manager(5, 3)
Michael Cole Quant Fund Manager(13, 13)
Ed Wiltshire Quant Fund Manager(16, 10)
Ruy Alves Quant Fund Manager(17, 14)
Richard Field Executive Director of Global Investment Solutions
Gary SaidlerClient Portfolio Manager
Jerome NunanClient Portfolio Manager
Russell Harris Index Fund Manager(26, 26)
Ned Kelly Index Fund Manager(13, 10)
Brad Beardsell Index Fund Manager(7, 3)
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Index enhancement of UK portfolio prior to launch of Index Opportunities Fund
Performance of a sub portfolio targeting a return of 0.25% p.a.
This is the outperformance of an UK FTSE All Share index tracking sub portfolio, with NAV of over £5bn. The primary objective of the portfolio is to replicate the FTSE All Share. The outperformance enhancement is achieved using similar arbitrage techniques to those used in Aviva Investors Index Opportunities Fund
Information provided gross of fees
Source: Aviva Investors. Data as at 31 December 2009
0.02 0.02
0.12 0.10
0.24
0.00
0.79
0.04 0.03
0.85
0.03
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 1 Year 2008
Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 1 Year 2009
Q1 2010
Index enhancement
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Key features of Aviva Investors Index Opportunities Fund
• Absolute return: objective is to outperform the 1 month Euribor by 5% pa
• Low risk: The fund manager targets annual volatility of less than 7.5% with an average of 5%.
• Market neutral: each portfolio position is systematically hedged with futures, ETFs or basket of securities
• Maximum exposure: 200% gross (100% long plus 100% short), but also periods when fund will mainly hold cash
• Global:
• Fund indicators:
using indices across Europe, North America, Japan, Asia Pacific and emerging markets, such as Eurostoxx50, Dow Jones, FTSE, MSCI, Topix, S&P’s indices
Bloomberg ticker: AVIOPEI LX EquityISIN: LU0469930985Sedol: B4V66J5
The opportunity and our process
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Strong growth of index and ETF strategies
US: Index fund and ETF assets as a share of all long-term mutual fund and ETF assets (1993 through July 2009)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Index Funds ETFs
%
Source: Investment Company Institute, Greenwich Associates, Empirical Research Partners Analysis and Estimate.
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Impact on liquidity and price
AGK LN (Addition)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
01 Dec 09 Dec 17 Dec 25 Dec
Dai
ly v
olum
e (T
hous
ands
)
AGK LN (Addition)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
01 Dec 09 Dec 17 Dec 25 DecDa
ily V
olum
ent (
Thou
sand
s)700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
Source: Bloomberg as at 31 December 2009.
FTSE 100 Review, December 2009Addition - AggrekoDeletion – Rentokil
Announcement Date – 09/12/09Effective Date – 21/12/09
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Performance of additions and deletions from MSCI World Index(between Announcement Date and Effective Date)
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Feb-03 Nov-03 Aug-04 May-05 Feb-06 Nov-06 Aug-07 May-08 Feb-09 Nov-09
Additions Deletions Event return
An absolute return strategy
Source: RBS as at 28 February 2010
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Groundwork: index rules and
stock price movement
Exclusions:Stock specific
catalysts, insufficient liquidity
Market neutral:beta, sector,
currency, region
Trading:Putting on positions
Adjustment:Volume,
volatility, P&L
Trading:Closing out positions
Investment process
Close outMonitoringImplementationFilterIdea generation
Portfolio construction
PassiveActive
and passive
Active PassiveActive
and passive
PassiveInpu
t
Combining multiple skills to generate returns
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Risk management is central to the process
Fund managers manage risk by:Exclusion of non-liquidity factorsFocus on short term beta and market neutral positioningBalance across sectors and regionsManaging overall leverage and risk in line with confidence levelsUnwind when liquidity premium is exhausted
Managers vary risk as shown belowNormal
High confidence in mis-pricing
Low confidence in mis-pricing
Minimum0% position
Maximum+ 5% position
Portfolio construction
Performancemonitoring
Unwind
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Performance since inception
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11
Aviva Investors Index Opportunities I EUR (MF) EURIBOR 1 Month (IN)
Performance versus benchmark since inception to 31/03/2011
1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year Since Launch 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years% % % % % % % p.a. % p.a. % p.a.
Aviva Investors Index Opportunities I EUR 0.69 -1.1 0.15 -1.1 3.04
EURIBOR 1 Month 0.07 0.21 0.4 0.21 0.66 0.63 0.66 1.7 2.52
Source: Lipper Hindsight as at 31/03/2011. Data is representative of share class I and is provided net of fees w ith gross income reinvested in EUR. Figures do not take into account the costs incurred on the issue and redemption of shares. Past performance is not a guide to the future.
Appendices
MSCI Rebalance – November 2010
Lanxess share price 01 Sep 2010 to 15 Dec 2010
Source: Bloomberg
Lanxess intraday performance – 30 Nov 2010
Source: Bloomberg
Lanxess trading volumes at close - 30 Nov 2010
Source: Bloomberg
Time Interval Close NetChg Open High Low Tick Volume16:00 - 16:05 53.19 0.32 52.87 53.19 52.8 145 47,452 16:05 - 16:10 53.38 0.19 53.17 53.4 53.11 153 34,098 16:10 - 16:15 53.53 0.15 53.38 53.53 53.38 165 40,130 16:15 - 16:20 53.56 0.03 53.52 53.56 53.42 141 32,646 16:20 - 16:25 53.66 0.1 53.56 53.72 53.54 118 37,604 16:25 - 16:30 53.56 -0.1 53.65 53.76 53.49 145 82,957 16:30 - 16:35 53.6 0.04 53.56 53.6 53.53 10 2,648 16:35 - 16:40 54.3 0.7 54.27 54.3 54 3 4,198,228 16:40 - 16:45 54 -0.3 54.22 54.22 53.99 9 2,531 16:45 - 16:50 54.05 0.05 54.05 54.05 54.05 1 100 16:50 - 16:55 54.02 -0.03 54.05 54.05 54.01 3 913 16:55 - 17:00 54.1 0.08 54.1 54.1 54.1 2 290 17:00 - 17:0517:05 - 17:10 54.02 -0.08 54.02 54.02 54.02 2 188
Volume on 30 Nov 2010 5,470,201 Closing vol / daily vol % 76.75
Bekaert intraday performance – 30 Nov 2010
Source: Bloomberg
Bekaert trading volumes at close - 30 Nov 2010
Time Interval Close NetChg Open High Low Tick Volume16:00 - 16:05 71.57 0.38 71.2 71.57 71.12 168 15,367 16:05 - 16:10 71.74 0.17 71.55 71.86 71.44 180 18,375 16:10 - 16:15 71.91 0.17 71.76 71.91 71.7 171 13,115 16:15 - 16:20 72.06 0.15 71.93 72.16 71.87 217 18,466 16:20 - 16:25 72.07 0.01 72.06 72.12 71.78 195 14,276 16:25 - 16:30 72.58 0.51 72.07 72.58 72.07 315 40,054 16:30 - 16:35 73.21 0.63 73.21 73.21 73.21 480 1,847,680 16:35 - 16:40 73.21 unch 73.21 73.21 73.21 1 130 16:40 - 16:4516:45 - 16:50
Volume on 30 Nov 2010 2,371,895 Closing vol / daily vol % 77.90
Source: Bloomberg
Amadeus intraday performance – 30 Nov 2010
Source: Bloomberg
Industrivarden intraday performance – 30 Nov 2010
Source: Bloomberg
Stoxx 600 addition – January 2011
Brenntag share price 01 Oct 2010 to 24 Jan 2011
Source: Bloomberg
Eurostoxx performance 01 Oct 2010 to 24 Jan 2011
Source: Bloomberg
Supporting information
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Assets under management
Index (beta) Quant (alpha)
£6.1bn £10.2bn £1.6bn
Index £4.7bn
FWI £1.4bn
Index +Outperformance range 0.25%
to 1.5%
Source: Aviva Investors as at 31 December 2010.
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Global opportunities
Region Provider Frequency 2011 dateUS S&P 4 x p.a. Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec
US Russell 12 x p.a. All except Nov
US DJ TSM 12 x p.a. Monthly
World MSCI 4 x p.a. Feb, May, Aug, Nov
World FTSE 4 x p.a Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec
Europe Eurostoxx50 1 x p.a. Sep
Europe Stoxx600 4 x p.a. Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec
Europe FTSE 100 4 x p.a. Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec
Europe CAC 40 4 x p.a. Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec
Europe DAX 4 x p.a. Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec
Asia Topix 12 x p.a. Monthly
Asia Nikkei 1 x p.a. Oct
EMs MSCI 4 x p.a. Feb, May, Aug, Nov
• Additions: Stocks with market capitalisation higher than existing index members• Deletions: Stocks whose capitalisation has dropped below companies not in the index.
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Indices and rebalancing
Index Review / Rebalance ExampleIndex Rebalance Example
MSCI WorldFour times per annumFeb, May, Aug, Nov
May 2010Add – 42 (including CitiGroup, Redback Mining, TEVA Pharmaceuticals)Delete – 45
Russell 3000 Once each year Jun 2010 Add – 24 (R1000) + 237 (R2000)Delete – 4 (R1000) + 201 (R2000)
FTSE 100 Four times per annumMar, Jun, Sep, Dec
Jun 2010Add – 2 (African Barrick Gold, ESSAR EnergyDelete – 2 (Thomas Cook Group, London Stock Exchange)
• Announcement date: Occurs on a regular, predetermined (for each global index) date when index providers announce which stocks will be added to the index and which stocks will be deleted. Index managers have a number of days to align with new index positions and weightings
• Effective date: The date when stocks are officially in or out of the index and can officially be traded
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Underlying strategy
Action: go long additions and short deletions Action: go short additions and long deletions
AGK LN (Addition)
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
01-Dec 03-Dec 07-Dec 09-Dec 11-Dec 15-Dec 17-Dec 21-Dec 23-Dec 29-Dec 31-Dec
Daily
vol
ume
700
750
800
850
900
950
Pric
e (£
pen
ce)
Volume Price (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg as at 31 December 2009
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The opportunity is available across the world
MSCI World Add-Del Strategy (HSBC)
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
T-0 T+2 T+4 T+6 T+8 T+10 T+12 T+14 T+16 T+18 T+20 T+22 T+24
Trading days based around announcement date
% R
etur
n of
stra
tegy
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
% P
ositi
ve R
etur
ns
% Positive success (RHS) Average of trading recommendations MSCI World rebased
Source: HSBC as at 28 February 2010
Typical risk analysis
Rexel (Bloomberg ticker: RXL FP): added to FTSE Europe, September 2010
Risk factor Result of analysisPre-Announcement Date confidence level Very high confidence that stock would be included
Trading volumes required for index funds to rebalance 6 days average daily volume
Stock specific risk No company announcements forecast for RXL or similar companies during anticipated holding period
Liquidity for exit Medium size company, easy to sell on exit
Position size 1.25% appropriate
Hedge available European futures
Execution:• Bought RXL FP on 31 August 2010, sold futures as hedge• Continuous monitoring of fundamental news flow and trading volumes during the trade lifetime• Close out position and hedge on 13 September 2010
Source: Aviva Investors, 22 October 2010
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Hedging beta risk
Strategy success depends on effective hedging
• Initial objective is to create market neutral baskets within the same country or currency – hedging longs (inclusions) with appropriate shorts (exclusions).
• If there are insufficient stocks to balance the portfolio, we hedge the mismatch with an appropriate future or ETF (dependent on region, country, currency or sector)
• Beta is monitored using our desktop risk package to ensure the portfolio has beta as close to zero as possible – both at the implementation of the trade, and for its duration.
• We monitor the “beta curve” of each stock and basket continuously – looking at beta horizons of 30 days out to two years.
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The target risk-return equation
Long portfolio
2.5% Alpha(ungeared)
Short portfolio
2.5% Alpha(ungeared)
Portfolio Leverage / net exposure
Gross exposure up to 200%
Geared Alpha
Annual volatility (2.5%-7.5% range)
5%
5%
Net exposure0%
Beta returns
Annual volatility
0%
0%
Risk / return equation
5%0%
Beta Alpha
5% = +
5%0%
Beta Alpha
5% = +
Portfolio return
Portfolio risk
Portfolio
Portfolio
Information ratio = 1
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MSCI World rebalance – May 2010
Date Event Action
April/early May Idea generation Broker discussions – identification of approximately 60 securities
Filter Filter list of potential candidates suggested by brokers (e.g. exclude MYGN US). Shortlist 12 longs and 12 shorts
7 May Implementation Establish long and short positions
11 May (after COB) Announcement date
12 May onwards Monitoring
Close out positions not included in announcement, increase existing positions. Also implement further 13 longs and 14 shortsClose out positions as excess trading occurs
26 May (after COB) Effective date Close out remaining positions (approx 10 longs and 10 shorts)
27 May Idea generation Establish long (x5) and short (x1) positions in oversold and overbought securities
Five best Five worst
UNI IM Unipol Gruppo +0.17% CON GR Continental - 0.18%
SPWRB US Sunpower Corp +0.15% SIK SW Sika - 0.07%
LUPE SS Lundin Petroleum +0.14% CIT US CIT Group - 0.06%
FSA IM Fondaria SAI +0.12% KPLD SG Keppel Land - 0.06%
AER CN Groupe Aeroplan +0.12% MTGB SS Modern Times - 0.05%
Source: Bloomberg and Aviva Investors as at 24 May 2010
Biographies
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Iyad Farah, Director of quant solutions Joined Investment Industry in 1996
Main responsibilitiesOverall responsibility for active quant process and management of Active Quant funds.
Experience and qualificationsIyad joined Aviva Investors in 2000.
Iyad was previously a senior quantitative analyst at Union Bancaire Privee and prior to that, he was a quantitative analyst at NPI for three years.
He was a senior research associate at the University of Wales before beginning his investment career in 1996.
Iyad holds a BSc in Aeronautical Engineering from Technion in Israel, an MSc in Aeronautical Engineering from the University of Manchester and a PhD in Applied Mathematics from the University of Wales, Aberystwyth. Iyad is a member of the Institute of Investment Management and Research (IIMR) and holds the UKSIP Investment Management Certificate.
Iyad Farah – Director of Quant Solutions
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Ned Kelly, Fund managerJoined the investment industry in 1998
Main responsibilitiesIndex funds and futures execution
Experience and qualificationsNed joined Aviva Investors in July 2001.
Previously, he worked for Legal & General Investment Management as an index fund analyst.
Prior to L&G, he was with Barclays Global Investors as a client accountant.
Ned holds a BA (Hons) in European Business Systems from London Guildhall University and the UKSIP Investment Management Certificate.
Ned Kelly – Fund Manager
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Jerome Nunan – Client Portfolio Manager
Jerome NunanClient Portfolio Manager for Index Opportunities Fund. Jerome joined the financial services industry in 1998
Main responsibilitiesTo provide a primary link between investment and distribution teams through communication of investment messages, to support business development and product management in all areas related to Index Opportunities Fund and Securities Lending.
Experience and qualificationsJerome joined Aviva Investors in August 2009.
Before joining Aviva Investors, Jerome spent 8 years at Deutsche Bank and 10 years in the British Army with the Royal Tank Regiment.
Jerome holds a BA (Hons) in Modern Languages from the University of East Anglia and a MBA from Cranfield University, School of Management.
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Gary Saidler – Client Portfolio Manager
Gary Saidler, Client Portfolio ManagerGary joined the investment industry in 2003.
Main responsibilitiesTo provide a primary link between investment and distribution teams through communication of investment messages, to support business development and product management related to Aviva Investors Asset Allocation and Index Opportunities strategies.
Experience and qualificationsGary joined Aviva Investors in May 2007.
Gary graduated from the University of Glasgow with a BSc (Honours) in Statistics. Prior to Aviva Investors he worked in the investment consultancy industry.
Gary is a CFA charterholder and has completed the UKSIP Investment Management Certificate (IMC).
Other quant capabilities
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Developing our Quant and Index proposition
Research on call overwriting
Research on Fundamental Indexation
Index team know-how on index rebalancing
strategies
Regional models and long-short expertise
FWI
Ind opps
130/30
INC
Minimum Variance
Directors’ Dealing?
Trend Following?
High Quality?
The future for Quant SolutionsQuant research to lead us into new products
Future HF long-short
!
!
!
Index Capabilities
2002 2006 2009 2010…building momentum…
Depth of research
Multi-factor quantmodels
Long-short + long only
Multi-factor quantmodels
Multi-factor quantmodels
Multi-factor quantmodels
Global income funds
Global income funds
Global income funds
Fundamentally weighted funds
Fundamentally weighted funds
Index opps fund
130/30 global funds
Multi-factor quantmodels
+ Index Capability
Minimum variance
Trend following
High Quality
Directors Dealing
New research
Products designed for client needs
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Important information
For further information on our services, or to discuss how we can help please contact:
Jerome NunanClient Portfolio ManagerAviva Investors Global Services Limited No, 1 Poultry London, EC2R 8EJtel. +44 (0) 20 7809 8031 mail: [email protected]
Important information (1)
Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors Global Services Limited (Aviva Investors) as at 31 March 2011.Any opinions expressed are based on the internal forecasts of Aviva Investors and they should not be relied upon as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors. No part of this document is intended to constitute advice or recommendations of any nature.Performance figures sourced from Lipper Hindsight and illustrated on a bid to bid, gross income reinvested basis in the currency shown. Other information sourced from Aviva Investors. The value of an investment in the fund can go down as well as up and can fluctuate in response to changes in exchange rates. Past performance is not a guide to the future.The distribution and offering of shares may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. This document should not be taken as a recommendation or offer by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. For Germany: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV are available free of charge from Aviva Investors Global Services Limited, Zweigniederlassung Deutschland - An der Hauptwache 7, 60313, Frankfurt am Main, Deutschland, or from Aviva Investors Luxembourg, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.For Austria: The "Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna, has been appointed by the Company as the paying agent within the meaning of § 34 InvFG. Accordingly, the redemption of shares can be made via the "Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna. The prospectus, the articles of association, the last annual report and the semi-annual report, once published, are available at the office of the "Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna or from Aviva Investors Luxembourg, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.For Spain: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV which are approved by and registered with CSSF in Luxembourg and CNMV in Spain are available free of charge from Aviva Investors Global Services Ltd, Sucursal en España, Calle Velázquez 47, 2 dcha, 28001 Madrid, España. NIF: W0069758D. Inscritos en la CNMV con el número 33, or from Aviva Investors Luxembourg, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.
Important information (2)
For Switzerland: Fortis Foreign Fund Services AG, Rennweg 57, 8023 Zurich was authorised by the Federal Banking Commission as Swiss representative of the Fund and acts also as paying agent. Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts and articles of the SICAV are available free of charge from the head office of the Swiss representative or from Aviva Investors Luxembourg, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.For Italy: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV are available free of charge from Aviva Investors Global Services Limited, Corso Matteotti, 10, 20121 Milano, Italia or from Aviva Investors Luxembourg, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.For Luxembourg; Norway: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV are available free of charge from Aviva Investors Luxembourg, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.For UK, France: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV are available free of charge from Aviva Investors Global Services Ltd, No. 1 Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ or from Aviva Investors Luxembourg, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.
On 1 April 2008 the SICAV changed its name from Aviva Morley to Aviva Investors. Please read the current Prospectus for full details of the current fund range before investing.
Aviva Investors Global Services Ltd, registered in England No. 1151805. Registered Office: No. 1 Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Services Authority and a member of the Investment Management Association.
Contact us at Aviva Investors Global Services Ltd, No. 1 Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ
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