avs 2016 presentation v6 final - brookings institution · 2016. 10. 25. · white working-class...

Findings from the 2016 American Values SurveyRobert P. Jones, Ph.D. | @robertpjones | #AVS2016

The Divide Over America’s Future: 1950 or 2050?

THE STATE OF THE NATION

3

Partisan Divide On America's Direction

42

21

7

25

21

25

49

30

36

53

42

44

0 20 40 60 80 100

Democrat

Independent

Republican

All Americans

Source: PRRI 2016 American Values Survey.

Is America headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track?

Right direction Wrong track - just in the last few years Wrong track - for a long time

4

Less Pessimism About Financial Future of Next Generation

5239

1836

2624

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

June 2013 September 2016

Note: For respondents without children, question was asked about "the next generation of young people."

Sources: PRRI/Brookings 2013 Economic Values Survey; PRRI 2016 American Values Survey.

Do you think that your generation is better off, about the same, or worse off financially than your children’s generation will be?

Don't know/Refused

Worse off

About the same

Better off

5

How important are the following issues to you personally?Percent saying critical issue, by party affiliation


6

How important are the following issues to you personally?Percent saying critical issue, by party affiliation


THE 2016 ELECTION:THE AMERICAN VALUES SURVEY SUPPLEMENT

8

Clinton Opens Double-Digit Lead Over Trump

4347 49 51

43 4138 36

13 12 14 13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sept. 22-25 Sept. 28-Oct. 2 Oct. 5-9 Oct. 12-17

Sources: PRRI/The Atlantic surveys; PRRI/Brookings October 2016 Survey.

Presidential vote choice among likely voters

Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Other candidate/Don't know/Refused

9

The Religion Vote in the 2016 Election

51

15

37

57

69

36

69

49

33

17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

All likely voters White evangelical Protestant

White mainline Protestant

Catholic Unaffiliated

Source: PRRI/Brookings October 2016 Survey.

Vote choice among likely voters by religious affiliation

Hillary Clinton Donald Trump

10

Religious Americans Grow More Accepting of Politicians' Personal Indiscretions

44

3038

42

6361

72

60 58 60

0

20

40

60

80

All Americans White evangelical Protestant

White mainline Protestant

Catholic Unaffiliated

Sources: PRRI/RNS June 2011 Survey; PRRI/Brookings October 2016 Survey.

Percent who agree an elected official who commits an immoral act in their personal life can still behave ethically and fulfill their

duties in their public and professional life

2011 2016

11

White Evangelicals Less Likely to Say Strong Religious Beliefs Very Important for Presidential Candidate

64

49

28

39

5

5

3

6

0 20 40 60 80 100

2011

2016

Source: PRRI 2011 American Values Survey; PRRI/Brookings October 2016 Survey.

Thinking about your vote for president, how important is it for a candidate to have strong religious beliefs?

Among White Evangelicals

Very important Somewhat important Not too important

Not at all important Don't know/Refused

CANDIDATES, PARTIES, AND THE ELECTION

13

Public Attributes More Positive Qualities to Clinton than Trump

45 47 50 52 55 5761 64

44 47

3640 39

35 33 31

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Is honest and trustworthy

Is a strong and decisive

leader

Has strong religious beliefs

Cares about people like

you

Will use American

military power responsibly

Understands the problems

of poor Americans

Has the right temperament

and personality to be president

Has the right background

and experience


Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think it applies more to Hillary Clinton or more

to Donald Trump


14

America's Partisan Segregation

4387

5076

6074

86

65

8741

7569

7542

20

61

100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100

RepublicanDemocrat

White working classWhite college educated

White, non-HispanicHispanic

Black, non-Hispanic

All Americans


Percent who say they have a close friend or family member who is supporting...


15

Growing Dissatisfaction with the Two Major Parties

48

61

45

38

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 2016

Sources: Gordon Black/USA Today Poll, August 1990; PRRI 2016 American Values Survey.

Neither political party represents my views anymore

Agree Disagree

16

Trump Supporters Lack Confidence in Accuracy of Election

70

41

43

24

49

38

5

9

17

0 20 40 60 80 100

Clinton likely voter

Trump likely voter

All Americans


How much confidence do you have that your vote will be counted accurately?

A great deal of confidence Only some confidence

Hardly any confidence Don't know/Refused

17

Partisan Polarization in Concerns about Voter Fraud vs. Voter Disenfranchisement

37

66

34

19

41

17

41

62

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

All Americans Republican Independent Democrat


Thinking about U.S. elections in general...Overall, which do you think is a bigger problem in U.S. elections today?

People casting votes who are not eligible to vote

Eligible voters being denied the right to vote

18

Stark Racial and Ethnic Divides in Concerns about Voter Fraud vs. Voter Disenfranchisement

37

21

31

42 4541

66

50

35 33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

All Americans Black, non-Hispanic

Hispanic White, non-Hispanic

White working class


Thinking about U.S. elections in general...Overall, which do you think is a bigger problem in U.S. elections today?

People casting votes who are not eligible to vote

Eligible voters being denied the right to vote

RACIAL DIVIDES ON TREATMENT OF AFRICAN AMERICANS BY POLICE

20

Views of Police Treatment of Nonwhites Grow More Positive Among White Americans Across the Political Spectrum

50

70

48

32

64

83

61

42

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

All white Americans White Republican White independent White Democrat

Sources: PRRI 2015 American Values Survey; PRRI 2016 American Values Survey.

Percent who agree police officers generally treat blacks and other minorities the same as whites, 2015 vs. 2016

2015 2016

21

Large Partisan Divide on Police Treatment of Nonwhites

32

51

80

52

67

48

20

47

0 20 40 60 80 100

Democrat

Independent

Republican

All Americans


Police officers generally treat blacks and other minorities the same as whites, by party affiliation

Agree Disagree Don't know/Refused

THE NOSTALGIA ELECTION: 1950 OR 2050?

23

White Men Most Averse to Politically Correct Language

57 5646

69

52

71

51

39 38

52

27

44

25

45

01020304050607080

All Americans

Nonwhite men

Nonwhite women

White men White women

White working-

class men

White working-

class women


Which of the following statements comes closest to your own view?

Even if certain people are offended, it is important to speak frankly about sensitive issues and problems facing the country

It's important to avoid using language that is hurtful and offensive to some people when discussing sensitive issues

24

The country would be better off if we had more women in political office

58

50

65

40

47

32

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

All Americans Men Women


By gender

Agree Disagree

25

Massive Partisan Divides on Impact of Immigrants

46

73

45

29

44

20

45

63

01020304050607080

All Americans Republican Independent Democrat


Which of the following statements comes closest to your own view?

The growing number of newcomers from other countries threatens traditional American customs and values

The growing number of newcomers from other countries strengthens American society

26

Attitudes on Protectionist Policies

41 43

8678

1218

0

20

40

60

80

100

Building a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico

Temporarily banning Muslims from other countries from entering the U.S.


Percent who favor each policy, by presidential candidate preference

All Americans Trump likely voter Clinton likely voter

27

Nostalgia for the 1950s

66 66 65 62 60 57 56 48 43 42 41 41 34 31 25

34 34 34 36 39 43 43 51 56 57 59 57 65 68 74

0

20

40

60

80

100


Since the 1950s, do you think American culture and way of life has mostly changed for the better, or has it mostly changed for the worse?

Mostly changed for the better Mostly changed for the worse Don't know/Refused

Thank YouMore findings from the 2016 American Values Survey

can be accessed online at prri.org

@PRRIpoll

avs 2016 presentation v6 final - brookings institution · 2016. 10. 25. · white working-class...

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