b p techno funda report - rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in

Techno Funda Report B P W E A L T H

Super 7 Picks - June 2014

Techno Funda Report - June 2014

BP Equities Private Limited (www.bpwealth.com)

B P W E A L T H

31st May, 2014

Research Team [email protected]

022-61596406

Index

Company Recommendation Price (Rs) Entry Range (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Stop Loss (Rs) Page No.

Arvind ltd. Sell 183 190-195 162 205 1

Hindustan Unilever Ltd. Buy 603 590-580 650 560 2

Idea Cellular Ltd. Buy 138 CMP 157-164 128 3

IndusInd Bank Ltd. Sell 534 540-550 470 580 4

Mphasis Ltd. Buy 441 430-420 500 405 5

Tata Motors Ltd. Sell 415 425-435 380 458 6

Wipro Ltd. Buy 506 495-485 560 460 7



B P W E A L T H

Performance Tracker

Performance Tracker January 2014

Sr. No. Company Recommendation Reco Price (Rs) Target Price (Rs) Status

1 Bajaj Auto Ltd. Buy 1,935 2,120 / 2,160 Call closed at 1,902

2 Bharti Airtel Ltd. Buy 320-315 365 Call closed at 315

3 Cairn India Ltd. Buy Above 331 370 Call closed at 325

4 DLF Ltd. Buy 165-160 190 Stop Loss Triggered

5 ITC Ltd. Buy 322-318 350 Call closed at 325

6 State Bank of India Buy 1,770 2,000 Stop Loss Triggered

7 Sun Pharma Ind Ltd. Buy 576-565 630 Profit Booked at 614

Performance Tracker February 2014


1 Aditya Birla Nuvo Ltd. Buy 1,100-1,080 1 200 Call closed at 1086

2 Hindustan Unilever Ltd. Buy 565-560 610 / 630 Call closed at 549

3 GAIL (India) Ltd. Buy 355-345 395 Profit Booked at 373

4 Glenmark Pharma Ltd. Buy 540-535 595 Call closed at 560

5 Idea Cellular Ltd. Buy 135-130 150 Stop Loss Triggered

6 Reliance Industries Ltd Sell 850 780 / 740 Not Initiated

7 Sesa Sterlite Ltd Sell 195-200 170 Not Initiated

Techno Funda Return For January, 2014 : -2.3% , Nifty Return For January, 2014 : -3.5%

Techno Funda Return For February, 2014 : 0.6% , Nifty Return For February, 2014 : 3.1%

-2.4%

0.8%

-7.0%

6.6%8.1%

-2.1%

2.2%

-3.5%

3.1%

6.7%

1.3%

6.6%

1.2%3.2%

0.6%

6.2%4.7%

6.1%

2.3%

-2.3%

0.6%

4.3%3.0%

1.6%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14

Nifty Return Techno Funda Return



B P W E A L T H

Techno Funda Return For March, 2014 : 4.3% , Nifty Return For March, 2014 : 6.7%

Performance Tracker April 2014


1 Andhra Bank Buy 62-61 72 Profit Booked at 66

2 Bajaj Auto Ltd. Buy 2,040-2,020 2,200 Call closed at 1996

3 Berger Paint Ltd. Buy 223-218 250 Not initiated

4 Bharti Airtel Ltd. Buy 310-305 355 Not initiated

5 Coal India Ltd. Buy 275-270 315 Profit Booked at 297

6 HDFC Ltd. Buy 876 970 Profi Booked at 923

7 Jain Irrigation Systems Ltd. Buy 63-62 75 Not initiated

8 Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd. Buy 245-240 275 Profit Booked at 265

9 Tata Global Beverages Ltd. Buy 148 165 Profit Booked at 160

10 Tata Steel Ltd. Buy 375-372 420 Not initiated

Techno Funda Return For April, 2014 : 3.0% , Nifty Return For April, 2014 : 1.3%

Performance Tracker March 2014


1 ACC Ltd Buy 1,070 1,180 / 1,230 Not initiated

2 BPCL Buy 365-363 410 / 420 Not initiated

3 Glenmark Pharma Ltd. Buy 560 640 Call closed at 548

4 Hindalco Industries ltd. Buy 103-102 115 Not initiated

5 ITC Ltd. Buy 325-322 365 Target Achieved

6 State Bank of India Buy 1,530-1,520 1,700 Target Achieved

7 Tech Mahindra Ltd. Buy 1,850-1,840 2,000 / 2,050 Stop Loss Triggered

Performance Tracker May 2014


1 ACC Ltd. Sell 1,330-1,340 1,160 Stop Loss Triggered

2 Apollo Hospital Enterprises Ltd. Buy 892 970 Target Achieved

3 HDFC Ltd. Buy 885-870 980 Profit booked at 935

4 Hero Motocorp Ltd. Sell 2,225-2,240 2,000-1,900 Stop Loss Triggered

5 Lupin Ltd. Buy 980-960 1 060 Stop Loss Triggered

6 M&M Financial Services Ltd. Buy 245-240 280 Target Achieved

7 Tech Mahindra Ltd. Buy 1 790 1 940 Target Achieved

Techno Funda Return For May, 2014 : 1.6% , Nifty Return For May, 2014 : 6.6%

2nd Feb ,

Sell

Technical View (Daily Chart)

Textiles

Source: Falcon, BP Equities Research

Technical View

The stock seems to have completed a five wave upmove wherein wave 5 is equal to 50% extension of net travel from wave 1 to wave 3, wave 2 is equal to wave 4. After completing this wave the stock is now expected to retrace this wave downwards, 50% & 61.80% retracement of this wave comes at 170-162 respectively. Also the stock has reversed after facing resistance at the upper trendline of the broadening wedge formation and is now expected to head initially towards the lower trendline which currently is placed around 170. RSI is forming negative divergence with price which is a bearish sig-nal and supports the bearish view of price. We recommend to SELL ARVIND LTD. in the range of 190-195 with a stop loss of 205 for the target of 162 in short term.

Investment Rationale

Weak working capital & high capex

During FY14 company has raised Rs. 5.2 bn of capex, out of which B&R division has utilized Rs 2.5 bn of capex. The working capital cycle of B&R division remained higher in FY14, only the denim in-ventory was utilized to meet the demand. Due to higher capex & working capital cycle the free cash flows has remained tight in FY14. This led to increased in debt to Rs 4.6 bn in FY14. Further the company is planning to add capex Rs ~5.5 bn during FY15E which increase the debt levels going ahead.

Muted margins

The EBITDA margins decline by 121 bps to 13.2% YoY in Q4FY14 as compared to 14.4% in Q4FY13. This was due to higher input costs which the company incurred during the quarter and also due to lackluster performance of from Megamart. Megamart reported a loss of 2.6% in Q4FY14 vs. 2.6% profit in Q4FY13. Out of the expansion planned under B&R division 25% gross area to go to Megamart which is currently loss making. This will put further pressures on margins in short term.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 162

Stop loss (Rs) 205

Selling Range (Rs) 190-195

Last Close Price (Rs) 183

% change daily (1.6)

Daily Oscillator Direction

13 DMA Downwards

21 DMA Downwards

50 DMA Upwards

RSI Sell Mode

MACD Sideways

Arvind Ltd.

1

B P W E A L T H

Sector Outlook Neutral

Stock

BSE code 500101

NSE Symbol ARVIND

Bloomberg ARVND IN

Reuters ARVN.BO

Key Data

Nifty 7,230

52WeekH/L(Rs) 205/65

O/s Shares (mn) 258

Market Cap (Rs bn) 47

Face Value (Rs) 10

Average volume

3 months 3,258,355

6 months 3,297,234

1 year 2,494,126

1

3

4

5 ?

2

RSI forming negative divergence with price

2nd Feb ,

Buy

Technical View (Weekly Chart)

FMGC


Technical View The stock has reversed after completing a corrective wave a-b-c wherein wave c is equal to wave a, also wave c is equal to 138.20% extension of wave b, after completing this wave the stock has con-solidated for sometime and is now expected to retrace this wave upwards towards 653 which is 61.80% retracement of this wave. Also the stock has given upward breakout from Falling wedge a bullish reversal price pattern which is a bullish signal for medium term trend. RSI has reversed after getting support around the previous trough which is a bullish signal for short term trend. We recom-mend to BUY HINDUNLIVR in the range of 590-580 with a stop loss of 560 for the target of 650 in short term.

Investment Rationale Improved performance in key business HUL’s has 4 key business segments such as Personal Products (28.1% of sales), Packaged Foods (5.9% of sales), Soaps & Detergents (49.5% of sales) & Beverages (12.3% of sales) segments which registered 9%, 13%, 9% & 8% YoY growth in Q4FY14 respectively. Soaps in the Soaps & Detergent segment reported a double digit growth due to the price hike & volumes. In Personal Care products, hair care segment reported double digit growth. Further management has indicated that they will con-tinue to invest in Personal Care products & Packaged Foods as they are the major key growth driv-ers for the future.

New launches in pipeline to tackle slowdown For increasing its sales in the slowing demand scenario & increased competition HUL has been launching new products & re-launching its older products. HUL has recently relaunched Rin powder while new variants in the haircare segment and Knorr soup segment also has been launched. Mag-num ice cream was introduced in 4 new cities. Also, the company is focusing to increase its adver-tisement & promotion for all these products which will help the company to increase its volumes in the coming future.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 650

Stop loss (Rs) 560

Buying Range (Rs) 590-580


% change weekly 7.5

Weekly Oscillator Direction

13 WMA Upwards

21 WMA Upwards

50 WMA Upwards

RSI Buy Mode

MACD Buy Mode

Hindustan Unilever Ltd.

2

B P W E A L T H

Sector Outlook Positive

Stock

BSE code 500696

NSE Symbol HINDUNILVR

Bloomberg HUVR IN

Reuters HLL.BO

Key Data

Nifty 7,320

52WeekH/L(Rs) 725/537

O/s Shares (mn) 2,163

Market Cap (Rs bn) 1,300

Face Value (Rs) 1

Average volume

3 months 1,522,704

6 months 1,438,713

1 year 2,045,878

Breakout from Falling Wedge - a bullish reversal price pattern

a

b

c

2nd Feb ,

Buy

B P W E A L T H


Telecom


Technical View The stock has reversed after completing a corrective wave a-b-c after which the stock is now ex-pected to retrace this wave upwards towards 157-164 which are 50% and 61.80% retracement of this corrective wave. Following the reversal the stock is consolidating for past few months and now we expect the stock to resume its up move. We recommend to BUY IDEA at CMP with a stop loss of 128 for the target of 157-164 in short term. Investment Rationale Highest VLR and highest MNP additions reflects optimum quality of service Idea has the highest VLR (Visitor Location registry) of 101.5% in the industry in comparisons to Bharti Airtel’s 95.8% and ~90.0% for Vodafone and Industry average of 87.4%. It reflects real percentage of active subscribers. MNP data shows that Idea has been the maximum gainer with 9.14 mn net addi-tions (port in– port out). It is primarily due to company’ strong branding along with superior quality of service which, we believe will benefit the company in the long run.

Growth to be fueled by data wave in the country, 3G roaming pact will enhance reach With the growing usage of internet on mobile phones in the country, revenues from the data services are expected to increase in the coming period. India has a Smartphone penetration of ~6% which is way less as compared to ~30-40% in developed countries. This provides immense opportunities for service providers to tap this market. Idea is planning to increase its revenues from the data services segment to ~25% in the next 3 years as compared to 10-12% presently.

ARPU and ARPM will continue to trend upwards After years of price wars and declining ARPM, (declined from 53 paisa in 2011 to low of 41 paisa in FY13), telcos are finally able to take price hikes. With several new operators scaling down operations (after supreme court cancelling 122 licences), telcos have been able to curb discount and free min-utes, which has resulted in some relief for ARPMs. It has expanded from a low of 41 paisa in FY13, to 44 paisa in FY14 and we expect it to expand to 50 paise by FY16E. Management has also reiter-ated that ARPM will continue to expand going forward fueled by data revenues and price hikes for Voice. We expect APRU to grow at a FY14-17E CAGR of 5.7% to Rs 198 for FY17E. We expect EBITDA margins to expand by 41 and 38 bps in FY15-16E to 31.6% and 32.0% respectively.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 157/164

Stop Loss (Rs) 128

Buying Range (Rs) CMP


% Change weekly (1.4)


13 WMA Downwards

21 WMA Downwards

50 WMA Downwards

RSI Buy mode

MACD Buy mode

Idea Cellular Ltd.

3


Stock

BSE code 532822

NSE Symbol IDEA

Bloomberg IDEA IN

Reuters IDEA.BO

Key Data

Nifty 7,230

52 Week H/L (Rs) 188/124



Face Value (Rs) 10

Average volume

3 months 57,03,890

6 months 58,37,499

1 year 60,08,161

Support at the upsloping trendline

a

c ?

b

2nd Feb ,

Sell

Technical View (Daily Chart)

Banking

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 470

Stop Loss (Rs) 580



% change daily (1.6)

Daily Oscillator Direction

13 DMA Downwards

21 DMA Downwards

50 DMA Upwards

RSI Sell Mode

MACD Sell Mode


Technical View The stock has reversed after facing resistance at the upper trendline of the upsloping channel, a fail-ure to violate the upper trendline will bring a halt to the ongoing upmove and will call for profit book-ing. Also the stock on its weekly chart has formed bearish engulfing a bearish reversal candlestick pattern which suggests the recent peak to act as strong resistance for short term trend. RSI has formed negative divergence with price which is a bearish signal and supports the bearish view of the price. We recommend to SELL INDUSINDBANK in the range of 540-550 with a stop loss of 580 for the target of 470 in short term. Investment Rationale Margins are likely to be under pressure going ahead During Q4FY14 IndusInd Bank has been able to improve its margins to 3.75% from 3.7% in Q4FY13. This was on back of strong liability cost management, CA deposits increased by 11% during the quarter. However, going forward this is unlikely to continue which will put pressure on the margins in medium term. Also bank is reducing its high yielding CV loan portfolio and shifting towards the corpo-rate loan book. This will also impact the margins going ahead.

Rise in delinquency in CV portfolio to impact asset quality During the quarter bank has been able to maintain GNPAs ~ 1.12% in Q4FY4 vs. 1.18% in Q3FY14. However, CFD loan portfolio witnessed increased GNPAs during the quarter. Further slower growth in CV demand is likely to put pressure on the banks asset quality. The four segments viz CV, utility vehicle, construction equipment & small CVs contribute to one third of total loan portfolio of bank. Any rise in delinquency in this portfolio will increase the GNPAs short term. On account of fresh slippages & higher restructuring provisions during the quarter has increased. Provision coverage ratio stood at 70.4% in FY14.

Valuations Despite consistent growth in loan portfolio, reducing high yielding assets to pressure the margins going ahead. At CMP stock trades at 2.7x its FY15E BV, which we believe is expensive seeing the current rally in the price.

IndusInd Bank Ltd.

4

B P W E A L T H


Stock

BSE code 532187

NSE Symbol INDUSINDBK

Bloomberg IIB IN

Reuters INBK.BO

Key Data

Nifty 7,230

52WeekH/L(Rs) 587/312

O/s Shares (mn) 525


Face Value (Rs) 10

Average volume

3 months 2,129,774

6 months 2,062,606

1 year 2,522,841

RSI forming negative divergence with price

Upsloping Channel

2nd Feb ,

Buy


IT Services


Technical View The stock has given upward breakout of Symmetrical Triangle a bullish reversal price pattern after which the short term trend is expected to turn bullish. RSI has also violated a down sloping trend line which is a bullish signal for short term trend. The breakout has come with good increase in volume which increases the reliability of the pattern. We recommend to BUY MPHASIS in the range of 430-420 with a stop loss of 405 for the target of 500 in short term.

Investment Rationale Revenue growth likely to improve The management expects direct channel revenues to grow at ~1.5x industry growth. It has also indi-cated a improvement in deal pipeline, new orders wins and will continue to focus on top clients. More-over, the management also said that a few deal wins will be announced shortly. However, the man-agement has indicated some weakness in the digital risk revenues due to decline in the forensic de-mand on major project completions and likely softness in the mortgage origination business as inter-est rate expected to go up in the US. We believe the company should maintain strong growth in the DR revenues on account of ramp up of deals wins in the past few quarters.

Revenues from HP has more or less bottomed out Revenues from HP declined by 4.4% sequentially to Rs 3.7bn largely due to annual shut downs and furloughs observed at client account. HP Non ES segment revenues were at $8.3mn for the quarter and we expect it to grow in CY14-15. We expect HP ES segment to witness some modest volume cut in CY14 as indicated by management due to certain project ramp downs. We believe that revenues from HP, the biggest client of the company, has more or less bottomed out and will stabilize going forward.

Valuations and Outlook The stock is trading at ~9x FY15E and ~8x FY16E earnings which we believe is cheap as compared to the midcap IT space. We believe that on account of 1) improvement in revenue growth, 2)Strong FCF generation (FCF yield of ~11%) and 3) attractive dividend yield of ~5% the stock is a attractive BUY.

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 500

Stop loss (Rs) 405



% change weekly 10.2


13 WMA Upwards

21 WMA Upwards

50 WMA Upwards

RSI Buy Mode

MACD Buy Mode

Mphasis Ltd.

5

B P W E A L T H


Stock

BSE code 526299

NSE Symbol MPSASIS

Bloomberg MPHL IN

Reuters MBFL.BO

Key Data

Nifty 7,230

52WeekH/L(Rs) 514/347

O/s Shares (mn) 210

Market Cap (Rs bn) 92.7

Face Value (Rs) 10

Average volume

3 months 1,55,604

6 months 1,40,166

1 year 1,21,357

Breakout From Symmetrical Triangle

Increase in Volume

RSI has violated downsloping trendline

2nd Feb ,

Sell


Automobiles

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 380

Stop Loss (Rs) 458



% change weekly (3.8)


13 WMA Downwards

21 WMA Upwards

50 WMA Upwards

RSI Sell Mode

MACD Sideways


Technical View The stock is moving in an up sloping channel and has given a downward breakout from it which sug-gest the short term trend to turn bearish. Also the stock has given confirmation to Dark cloud cover a bearish reversal candlestick pattern which suggests the recent peak to act as strong resistance for medium term trend. RSI has formed negative divergence with price which is a bearish signal and supports the bearish view of the price. We recommend to SELL TATAMOTORS in the range of 425-435 with a stop loss of 458 for the target of 380 in short term. Investment Rationale Domestic market slowdown is expected to continue in the near future The sales of CV & PV of Tata Motors were down by 33% YoY at 132,308 units in Q4FY14. The CV industry declined in FY14 as compared to previous year on account of 25% fall in M&HCV segment & ~21% fall in LCV segment. Overall the auto sector is seeing a downtrend in the past few months due to the economic slowdown in the country. Demand in CV’s & UV’s is expected to see a down turn on account of weak sentiment & macro concerns which we expect to be continued in the near term. In-dustry is expecting improvement in the auto sales volumes & demand on account of stable govern-ment but improvement in demand & sales volumes will happen gradually.

JLR sales down to impact the overall volumes in short term JLR volumes for March 2014 were below the estimates at 55.2k units due to capacity constraints as March is a peak month for sales. JLR margin declined QoQ due to unfavorable forex appreciation (GBP appreciation vs USD). Further we expect that JLR margins would be impacted due to GBP appreciation vs USD in the short term.

Standalone operations losses widens Traditionally Q4 is the strongest quarter but losses for standalone business fell to a new low of Rs (771 cr) vs Rs (658 cr) in the last quarter. Ebitda margin for standalone business contracted to a mul-tiyear low of (6.2%). This is in sharp contrast to Ashok Leyland, which recently reported significant improvement in margins from (5%) in 3Q to 6% in 4Q. There has been a sharp fall in entire domestic automobile portfolio however we expect some pick up following economic and political stability in H2 FY15E.

Tata Motors Ltd.

6

B P W E A L T H


Stock

BSE code 500570

NSE Symbol TATAMOTORS

Bloomberg TTMT IN

Reuters TAMO.BO

Key Data

Nifty 7,320

52WeekH/L(Rs) 465/263



Face Value (Rs) 2

Average volume

3 months 5,586,255

6 months 6,238,547

1 year 7,574,693

Breakout from Parallel Channel

RSI is forming negative divergence with price

2nd Feb ,

Buy


IT Services

Execution Data

Target (Rs) 560

Stop Loss (Rs) 460



% change weekly 3.3


13 WMA Downwards

21 WMA Downwards

50 WMA Upwards

RSI Buy Mode

MACD Sell Mode


Technical View The stock seems to have completed a corrective wave a-b-c wherein wave b is 78.60% retracement of wave a and wave c is 138.20% (apx) extension of wave a. After completing this wave the stock is now expected to retrace this wave upwards towards 543 & 560 which are 50% & 61.80% retracement of this wave respectively. We recommend to BUY WIPRO in the range of 495-485 with a stop loss of 460 for the target of 560 in short term.

Investment Rationale Improvement in deal wins and management optimistic on future deal closure Management indicated that Q4 FY14 was one of the strongest quarters in the past in terms of deals wins. Deal wins were primarily in the healthcare and manufacturing services from US and European region. We expect the deal flow to improve on account of rise in discretionary spending, improved corporate earnings in the US, clients ready to spend and cut cost by outsourcing. Management indi-cated that its deal win rate increased by ~50% over the past year and the pipeline of deals at Wipro will continue to be healthy.

Margins will continue to more or less stable Wipro IT services EBIT margins expanded 150 bps q/q and 435 bps y/y to 24.5% led by industrialisa-tion of operations, automation and higher utilization. Margins have been significantly rising from its FY09-14 average of 22% to 24.5% in Q4 FY14 primarily led by automation and rupee depreciation and rise in utilization( expanded 350 bps to 74.9% in Q4FY14 vs. 71.4% in Q1FY14). We expect FY15E margins to improve ~50 bps primarily led by efficiency while margins could be impacted by visa costs, wage hikes and rupee appreciation.

Rise in discretionary spending, recovery in US and Europe to fuel growth

The US economy displayed strong recovery and recovery in the US economy is bound to push dis-cretionary spending by corporate, thereby providing a boost to revenues of Indian IT companies. De-velopments such as Obamacare or the Affordable Healthcare Act (ACA) which aims at expanding health coverage to at least 25 million Americans by 2023 will require billions of dollars of Government spending and serve to be a huge potential for Indian IT firms. Wipro, which derives ~10% of it’s oper-ating revenues from the Healthcare Vertical will definitely benefit from this development. We also expect rise in discretionary spending to increase going forward.

Wipro Ltd.

7

B P W E A L T H

Sector Outlook Positive Stock

BSE code 507685

NSE Symbol WIPRO

Bloomberg WPRO.IN

Reuters WIPR.BO

Key Data

Nifty 7,230

52 Week H/L (Rs) 611/315



Face Value (Rs) 2

Average volume

3 months 23,58,015

6 months 20,60,275

1 year 23,36,906

a

b

c?

Wave b= 78.60% retracement of Wave a

Wave c = 138.20% (apx) extension of wave a

Research Desk Tel: +91 22 61596406 / 6173

Disclaimer Appendix

General Disclaimer

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BP WEALTH MANAGEMENT Pvt. Ltd. and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other rea-sons that prevent us from doing so.

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Analyst (s) Certification:

We analysts and the authors of this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our per-sonal views about any and all of the subject issuer (s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation (s) or view (s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the BP Equities Pvt. Ltd. (Institutional Equities).

Analyst (s) holding in the Stock : Nil

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b p techno funda report - rakesh-jhunjhunwala.in

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