ba350: financial management stephen gray fuqua school of business office: 310 west tel: 660-7786...
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BA350: Financial Management
Stephen Gray
Fuqua School of Business
Office: 310 West
Tel: 660-7786
E-mail: [email protected]
Web: <www.duke.edu/~sg12>
The Three Ideas in Finance The Time Value of Money Diversification and Risk Arbitrage and Hedging
Topic 1: The Time Value of Money
A dollar in the future is worth less than a dollar now.
Should you take the $1000 cash back or the 4.9% APR financing on your new Ford?
Should you refinance your mortgage? Should we convert our old warehouse
into luxury apartments or a parking garage?
Topic 1: The Time Value of Money
Time Value of Money Present values and future values Valuation of stocks and bonds Corporate investment decisions
Topic 2: Diversification and Risk
How should individuals invest their wealth?
Should you invest in stocks or bonds? What’s a reasonable return for a
particular investment? What’s the relationship between risk
and return?
Topic 2: Diversification and Risk
Diversification and Risk Statistical review and utility theory Portfolio theory Relationship between risk and return:
Capital Asset Pricing Model Investment decisions under uncertainty
Topic 3: Arbitrage and Hedging
If two investments are guaranteed to produce the same set of cash flows, they must cost the same.
How can we hedge against common business risks?
How do option and futures contracts work?
When should a firm use derivatives?
Topic 3: Arbitrage and Hedging
Arbitrage and Hedging Forwards Futures Options Hedging in Practice
– Foreign exchange rate risk– Interest rate risk– Stock market risk
Applications of the Three Ideas
Corporate Financial Policy» Investment decisions» Financing decisions» Dividend (payout) decisions
Mutual Fund Performance Evaluation Real and Strategic Options
Goals of Course
Provide a solid foundation in the fundamental principles of finance.
Prepare students for subsequent courses in finance.
Introduce students to current issues and concerns regarding financial policy.
Course Material Packet of course notes Optional text:
R. Brealey and S. Myers, Principles of Corporate Finance (5th Ed.)
Current financial publications: Wall Street Journal Fortune Business Week
Course Requirements and Grading
Assignments (10%) Midterm exam (30%)
Covers first five classes Closed book
Final Exam (60%) December 13 (9-noon) Closed book
Passing grade requires 50% on exams.
Help!!!!!!!!!
Classmates Help sessions
Posted on web site and bulletin board Review sessions
Fridays 4-5 pm Tutors
Posted on web site and bulletin board Me
Class 1
Present Value Mechanics and Bond
Valuation
Future Values
Suppose you have the opportunity to invest
$1,000 in a savings account that promises
to pay 7% interest per year. How much will
you have in your savings account at the end
of each of the next 2 years?
Future Value after One Year
0 1
$1,000
F1
F1 = P(1+i)
F1 = $1,000(1.07)
F1 = $1,070
Future Value after Two Years
0 1 2
$1,000
F2
F2 = F1(1+i)
F2 = [P(1+i)](1+i) = P(1+i)2
F2 = $1,000(1.07)2
F2 = $1,144.90
Future Value after n Years
0 n
P
Fn
Fn = P(1+i)n
Manhattan Island
In 1626, Peter Minuit purchased Manhattan Islandfor $24. Given today’s real estate values in NewYork, this appears to be a great deal for Minuit. But consider the current value of the $24 if it hadbeen invested at an interest rate of 8% for the last370 years (1996-1626 = 370).
F370 = $24(1.08)370
F370 = $55,847 Billion
Future Value of a Lump Sum
Example: A bank offers a rate of 10% per year, compounding quarterly. You invest $1000. How much is in your account after 1 year?
Fn=P(1+i)n
Fn=1000(1.025)4=1103.81
Present Value of a Lump Sum
Example: You need $100,000 in 18 years to pay for your newborn’s college education. How much must you invest today if you can earn 10% p.a.?
P=Fn/(1+i)n
P=100,000/(1.1)18=17,985.87
Present Value of a Lump Sum
Example: If you invest $5,000 now, how long will it take you to triple your investment if you can earn 11% p.a.?
P=Fn/(1+i)n
5,000=15,000/(1.11)n
ln(5,000)=ln(15,000)-nln(1.11) n=10.53 years.
Future Value of an Annuity
Example: If you work for 30 years and invest $500 per month into your retirement account, how much will you have at retirement if you can earn 12% p.a. compounding monthly?
Si
iRn
n
=+ -1 1b g
S m360
360101 1
0 01500 747=
-=
.
.$1.b g
Present Value of an Annuity
Example: You decide to fund a finance chair for the next 10 years. This requires $300,000 per year in salaries and add-ons. How much should you donate, if the school can earn 10% p.a?
Ai
iRn
n
1 1b g
A m10
101 110
010300 000 843
.
., $1.
b g
Annuity Formulas
In all annuity formulas, it is assumed that the first payment in the stream occurs one period from now:
50 50 50 50
Mortgage Example
30-year $100,000 fixed rate mortgage at 12% p.a. with monthly repayments.
The present value of the repayment scheme is the amount you borrowed:
Ai
iRn
n
1 1b g
A R360
3601 101
0 01000
.
.$100,
b g
R $1, .028 61
Mortgage Example
The payout figure is the present value of all remaining repayments. After 120 repayments, this is:
Ai
iRn
n
1 1b g
A240
2401 101
0 011028 61 417 80
.
.. $93, .
b g
Mortgage Example
If you make an extra repayment, this reduces the outstanding principal balance. Consider a payment of $50,000 after 10 years:
A R240
2401 101
0 01417 80
.
.$43, .
b g
R $478.07
Definition of a Bond
A bond is a security that obligates the issuer to make specified interest and principal payments to the holder on specified dates. Coupon rate Face value (or par) Maturity (or term)
Bonds are sometimes called fixed income securities.
Types of Bonds Pure Discount or Zero-Coupon Bonds
Pay no coupons prior to maturity. Pay the bond’s face value at maturity.
Coupon Bonds Pay a stated coupon at periodic intervals
prior to maturity. Pay the bond’s face value at maturity.
Perpetual Bonds (Consuls) No maturity date. Pay a stated coupon at periodic intervals.
Types of Bonds
Self-Amortizing Bonds Pay a regular fixed amount each payment
period over the life of the bond. Principal repaid over time rather than at
maturity.
Bond Issuers
Federal Government and its Agencies Local Municipalities Corporations
U.S. Government Bonds
Treasury Bills No coupons (zero coupon security) Face value paid at maturity Maturities up to one year
Treasury Notes Coupons paid semiannually Face value paid at maturity Maturities from 2-10 years
U.S. Government Bonds Treasury Bonds
Coupons paid semiannually Face value paid at maturity Maturities over 10 years The 30-year bond is called the long bond.
Treasury Strips Zero-coupon bond Created by “stripping” the coupons and
principal from Treasury bonds and notes.
Agencies Bonds
Mortgage-Backed Bonds Bonds issued by U.S. Government
agencies that are backed by a pool of home mortgages.
Self-amortizing bonds. Maturities up to 20 years.
U.S. Government Bonds
No default risk. Considered to be riskfree.
Exempt from state and local taxes. Sold regularly through a network of
primary dealers. Traded regularly in the over-the-counter
market.
Municipal Bonds
Maturities from one month to 40 years. Exempt from federal, state, and local
taxes. Generally two types:
Revenue bonds General Obligation bonds
Riskier than U.S. Government bonds.
Corporate Bonds
Secured Bonds (Asset-Backed) Secured by real property Ownership of the property reverts to the
bondholders upon default. Debentures
General creditors Have priority over stockholders, but are
subordinate to secured debt.
Common Features of Corporate Bonds
Senior versus subordinated bonds Convertible bonds Callable bonds Putable bonds Sinking funds
Bond RatingsMoody’s S&P Quality of Issue
Aaa AAA Highest quality. Very small risk of default.
Aa AA High quality. Small risk of default.
A A High-Medium quality. Strong attributes, but potentiallyvulnerable.
Baa BBB Medium quality. Currently adequate, but potentiallyunreliable.
Ba BB Some speculative element. Long-run prospectsquestionable.
B B Able to pay currently, but at risk of default in thefuture.
Caa CCC Poor quality. Clear danger of default .
Ca CC High specullative quality. May be in default.
C C Lowest rated. Poor prospects of repayment.
D - In default.
Bond Valuation:General Formula
0 1 2 3 4 ... n
C C C C C+F
Br
rC
F
rd
n
d d
n
1 1
1
b gb g
Valuing Zero Coupon Bonds
What is the current market price of a U.S. Treasury strip that matures in exactly 5 years and has a face value of $1,000. The yield to maturity is rd=7.5%. 1000
1075565
.$696.b g
Finding the YTM on a Zero Coupon Bond
What is the yield to maturity on a U.S. Treasury strip that pays $1,000 in exactly 7 years and is currently selling for $591.11?
591111000
17.
rdb grd 7 8%.
Valuing Coupon Bonds
What is the market price of a U.S. Treasury bond that has a coupon rate of 9%, a face value of $1,000 and matures exactly 10 years from today if the required yield to maturity is 10% compounded semiannually?
Valuing Coupon Bonds (cont.)
Semiannual coupon = $1,000(.09)/2 = $45 Semiannual yield = 10%/2 = 5% Payment periods = 10 years x 2 = 20
Br
rC
F
rd
n
d d
n
1 1
1
b gb g
B
1 105
0 0545
1000
10569
20
20
.
. .$937.
b gb g
Valuing Coupon Bonds (cont.)
Suppose you purchase the U.S. Treasury bond described earlier and immediately thereafter interest rates fall so that the new yield to maturity on the bond is 8% compounded semiannually. What is the bond’s new market price?
Valuing Coupon Bonds (cont.)
New Semiannual yield = 8%/2 = 4%
What is the price of the bond if the yield to maturity is 9% compounded semiannually?
Br
rC
F
rd
n
d d
n
1 1
1
b gb g
B
1 104
0 0445
1000
104067 95
20
20
.
. .$1, .
b gb g
Relationship Between Bond Prices and Yields
Bond prices are inversely related to interest rates (or yields).
A bond sells at par only if its coupon rate equals the required yield.
A bond sells at a premium if its coupon is above the required yield.
A bond sells a a discount if its coupon is below the required yield.
Duration: A Measure of Interest Rate Sensitivity
The percentage change in the bond’s price for a small change in interest rates is given by:
The term within square brackets is called the bond’s duration. It can be interpreted as the weighted average maturity.
B B
r r
t C r
B
n F r
Bd d
dt
t
n dn
/ / ( ) / ( )
LNMM
OQPP1
1
1 11
Duration Example
What is the interest rate sensitivity of the
following two bonds. Assume coupons are
paid annually.
Bond A Bond B
Coupon rate 10% 0%
Face value $1,000 $1,000
Maturity 5 years 10 years
YTM 10% 10%
Price $1,000 $385.54
Duration Example (cont.)
Year (t) PV(A) PV(A) x t PV(B) PV(B)xt1 $90.91 $90.91 0 02 $82.64 $165.89 0 03 $75.13 $225.39 0 04 $68.30 $273.21 0 05 $683.01 $3,415.07 0 06 0 0 0 07 0 0 0 08 0 0 0 09 0 0 0 0
10 0 0 $385.54 $3,855.43Totals $1000.00 $4,170.47 $385.54 $3,855.43
Duration 4.17 10.00
Duration Example (cont.)
Percentage change in bond price for a small increase in the interest rate:
Pct. Change = - [1/(1.10)][4.17] = - 3.79%
Bond A
Pct. Change = - [1/(1.10)][10.00] = - 9.09%
Bond B
Bond Prices and Yields
Bond Price
F
c Yield
Longer term bonds are moresensitive to changes in interestrates than shorter term bonds.
The Term Structure of Interest Rates
The term structure of interest rates is the relationship between time to maturity and yield to maturity:
Yield
Maturity1 2 3
5.00
5.75
6.00
Spot and Forward Rates
A spot rate is a rate agreed upon today, for a loan that is to be made today. (e.g. r1=5% indicates that the current rate for a one-year loan is 5%).
A forward rate is a rate agreed upon today, for a loan that is to be made in the future. (e.g. 2f1=6.50% indicates that we could contract today to borrow money at 6.5% for one year, starting two years from today).
Forward Rates
r1=5.00%, r2=5.75%, r3=6.00% If we invest $100 for three years we
earn 100(1.06)3 If we invest $100 for two years, and
contract (today) at the one year rate, two years forward, we earn 100(1.0575)2(1+2f1)
Forward Rates
Since both of these positions are riskless, they must yield the same returns
(1.06)3=(1.0575)2(1+2f1)
2f1=6.50%
More generally: (1+rn+t)n+t=(1+rn)n(1+nft)