battery metals status and outlook

Battery Metals Status and Outlook

Xu Aidong：8610-63971195

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www.MetalChina.com www.antaike.com

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Main content

China is the leading player in world battery market

Supply-demand balance and outlook

The influence of development of xEV on battery metals

1

2

3

4

Resource shortage stimulates the investments aboard and recycling

Q &A55

Share of China’s primary nickel outputdrop under 30% in 2020

Share of China’s primary nickel consumptionreach 53% in 2020


Source：Antaike INSG

Share of China’s refined cobalt output reach 66% in 2020

Share of China’s refined cobalt consumption account for 50% in 2020


Source：Antaike CI

Share of China’s LCE output account for 60% in 2020

Share of China’s LCE consumption account for 59% in 2020


Source：Antaike

➢Till the end of 2019, China owns 50Kt mine capacity of cobalt in DRC, account for 25%；90Kt HMI capacity in DRC

account for 45%！

Annual capacity of Chinese enterprises’ investment abroad

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000 Co mine pa Co intermediates pa

Tonne


Source：Antaike

The lithium projects China investment abroad

➢ Most of Chinese companies invest spodumene in Australia or brine in South American. 2.57M

tonne spodumene capacity is available in Australia, and Chinese companies get the majority

offtake agreement,

Mines Shareholders Capcacity (Kt) Offtake agreement

Greenbushes天齐锂业(Tianqi)51% /

ALB 49%1350 天齐(Tianqi)/ALB 50%/50%

Mt MarionMRL 50%/

赣锋锂业(Ganfeng)50%450 赣锋锂业(Ganfeng) 100%

Mt Cattlin Galaxy100%控股 230 雅化(Yahua) 50%+其他

Pilbara

CATL8.24%/赣峰(Ganfeng)6.86%

MRL 6.2%

320赣锋(Ganfeng)/容汇(Ronghui)/天

宜 (Tianyi) etc众多客户

AlturaAltura Mining，

杉杉 (Shanshan) 17.4%220

赣锋(Ganfeng)/瑞福(Ruifu)/ 威华(Weihua)/Lionergy


Source：Antaike

➢Comparing with cobalt and lithium, nickel companies put emphasis on industry migration, and set up a good

example of combination of Chinese technology, fund, market and resource of Indonesia.

➢In recent years Indonesia attribute most of the increment of global nickel output, and will surpass China to

become the No.1 nickel producing country in 2021.

Indonesia compensate most of the NPI loss in China since2019


Source：Antaike

China and Indonesia account for more than half primary nickel output

Globally distribution of

recycling bases

Must to do: Requirement from environment protection

Want to do: Rich of nickel and cobalt resource

High value of nickel

and cobalt, lack of

resource, extra

recycled lithium will

add income further

Publish the qualified

companies list

dealing with battery

recycled business;

Set up facilities

abroad.

Centralized processing

can alleviate the

negative influence on

the environment as

much as possible

• metal recycling business in battery recycling


不锈钢

stainless steel84%

铸造和合金

foundry&alloy5%

电镀plating

5%

电池battery

5%

其他others

1%


Nickel consumption breakdown in 2019-Global

Source：Antaike

Nickel consumption breakdown in 2019-China

Source：Antaike Daton

Cobalt consumption breakdown in 2019-ChinaCobalt consumption breakdown in 2019-Global


Source：Antaike Minmetal Security

Lithium consumption breakdown in 2019-Global Lithium consumption breakdown in 2019-China


• Metal contents in each battery type, whether the evolution of battery technology will affect metal demand (e.g. no-cobalt, high

nickel, solid state etc)

Battery content in different cathode materials Battery metal consumption density per Kwh

• The evolution trend of cathode materials is high nickel and lower cobalt, coupled with the increasing sales of EV battery,

means the huge growing room for nickel.

• No-cobalt technology is necessary to curb the soaring cobalt price in case, but when the battery producers take this weapon,

it depend the cobalt price, it is a economic topic rather than a “must be” route.

• Solid state battery is a long way direction, at least 5 year later; Now some battery companies strive to use half solid state,

but still in initial stage.


Development of xEV is the main driving force for battery metals in next decade

➢In 2020 sales of EV is around 2.7M Unit globally, 70Kt nickel, 20Kt cobalt and 15Kt lithium consumed in EV;

➢From 2021, development of EV will enter into the fast lane;

➢ Till 2025, EV sales will reach 12 M Unit, and 2030, to 23 M Unit. Consumption of nickel, cobalt and lithium will reach 1M tonne, 170Ktand 170Kt！CAGR @ 2020-2030 are：30%、24%和27% respectively！

30% 24% 27%


Source：Antaike

货币宽松以及对战略资源的重视支撑镍价高位震荡，印尼镍新建NPI项目陆续投产，供需结构性错配导致市场镍产品价格出现差异！

Monetary easing and the emphasis on strategic resources have supported the high level of nickel prices. The newly-built nickel NPI projects in Indonesia have been put into production one after another. The structural mismatch of supply and demand has led to differences in the price of nickel products in the market

Supply/ demand dynamic, price / margin outlook

Source：Antaike

3C和EV双轮驱动，电池材料“无钴化“技术储备抑制市场过度炒作，保障钴的消费长期稳定增长！地缘政治紧张，资源严重依赖进口，公认的关键矿产，价格窄幅波动。

3C and EV as two-wheel demand driver. Expectation of "cobalt-free" battery suppress excessive market speculation and ensure long-term stable growth of cobalt consumption. Geopolitics tensions are tight, resources are heavily dependent on imports, thus cobalt is considered as key minerals resource. Price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range.


Source：Antaike

经历近两年的价格下跌、行业调整后，上游行业开始出清。进入2020年Q4，在全球新能源汽车需求快速复苏及锂盐厂去库存推动下，锂价开始底部回升，锂价进入新一轮上涨周期。国内锂云母和盐湖提锂技术突破，成本具有竞争力。未来市场供需两旺

After nearly two years of price drops, the upstream capacity began to clear. Entering 4Q20, driven by the rapid recovery of global demand for new energy vehicles and the destocking of lithium salt factories, lithium prices have begun to rebound at the bottom, and entered a new round of rising cycle. Domestic lepidolite and salt lake lithium extraction technology breakthroughs make cost more competitive. Both supply and demand in the future market are booming


Source：Antaike

Q & A session

• Current supply agreement of upstream miners with downstream battery maker/OEM;

• The trend of upstream integration of OEM, e.g. Tesla developing its own clay-based lithium resources

Q&A session

公司/Company

镍/Nickel 钴/Cobalt 锂/Lithium 回收/Recycling

CATL

成立合资公司，参与印尼红土镍矿项目建设Established a joint venture company to participate in the construction of Indonesian laterite nickel mine project

与嘉能可签订长单Signed a long term procurement contract with Glencore

收购北美锂业、魁北克锂业Acquired North American Lithium and Quebec Lithium

控股邦普Holding Bangpu

LG投资韩国Kemco公司Invested in Kemco Korea

与华友钴业成立合资公司Established a joint venture company with Huayou Cobalt

与加拿大矿企、赣锋锂业签订供货协议Signed a supply agreement with Canadian mining companies and Ganfeng Lithium

国轩高科GuoxuanHigh-Tech

与中冶集团、比亚迪设立合资公司，布局三元前躯体以及动力电池资源循环利用环节Established joint ventures with China Metallurgical Group and BYD to lay out the ternary precursor and the recycling of power battery resources

孚能farasis

与寒锐合作在赣州建立钴原料基地，下游绑定奔驰大客户Cooperate with Hanrui to establish a cobalt raw material base in Ganzhou, and bind major downstream customers e.g. Mercedes-Benz

BYD与中冶集团、国轩高科设立合资公司Established a joint venture with China Metallurgical Group and Guoxuan Hi-Tech

携手盐湖股份成立合资公司开发青海锂盐Established a joint venture company to develop Qinghai lithium salt

与格林美、中国铁塔战略合作Strategic cooperation with GEM and China Tower

• Current supply agreement of upstream miners with downstream battery maker/OEM;

• The trend of upstream integration of OEM, e.g. Tesla developing its own clay-based

lithium resources

Q&A session

公司/Company

镍/Nickel 钴/Cobalt 锂/Lithium 回收/Recycling

长城汽车Great Wall Motors

长城汽车在2017年以1.4亿元入股澳大利亚锂矿商Pilbara MineralsGreat Wall Motors invested 140 million yuan in Australian lithium miner Pilbara Minerals in 2017

BMW宝马与赣锋锂业、嘉能可签署了锂和钴原材料5年供应合同；与巴斯夫、三星等合作刚果金钴试点项目BMW signed a five-year supply contract for lithium and cobalt raw materials with Ganfeng Lithium and Glencore; cooperated with BASF, Samsung and others in the DCR cobalt pilot project

VW正在寻找动力电池重要原材料的长期战略解决方案，斥资250亿美元选择电动汽车电池和相关技术合作伙伴Looking for long-term strategic solutions for important raw materials for power batteries, and spend 25 billion US dollars to select electric vehicle batteries and related technology partners

Tesla与智利锂矿巨头SQM进行谈判，欲在智利建厂来生产高质量锂 ,计划在印尼建车厂Negotiations with Chilean lithium mining giant SQM to build a plant in Chile to produce high-quality lithium, and plan to build a car plant in Indonesia

奇瑞Chery

与光华科技在废旧电池回收处理以及循环再造动力电池材料等业务上开展合作Cooperate with Guanghua Technology in the business of recycling waste batteries and power battery materials

Toyota通过丰田通商投资上游锂资产，与钴生产企业建立长期合作关系Invest in upstream lithium assets through Toyota Tsusho and establish long-term cooperative relationships with cobalt producers

• Which battery metal will have best opportunity/ face biggest shortage in the next 10 years.

Q&A session

• Competitive landscape(竞争格局) and capacity expansion plan of key battery metal players

Q&A session

• Competitive advantage of China miners vs foreign miners；

Q&A session

Quick decision

Shorter construction period(facility, technology, and skilled labors)

Lower Capex

• 2021 and 5-year outlook of lithium, cobalt, nickel and other important battery metals

Q&A session

• Weekly Report on Nickel and StainlessSteel

• Weekly Report on Cobalt and Lithium-ionBattery Cathode Material

• Weekly Report on the New EnergyIndustry of Nickel, Cobalt and Lithium

• Quarterly Report on Nickel and StainlessSteel

• Monthly Report on Nickel, Cobalt,Tungsten, Molybdenum and StainlessSteel

Periodic Report

• Report on Nickel Consumption Status andDevelopment Trend in China

• Report on Stainless Steel Smelting Statusand Development Trend in China

• Report on Nickel and Stainless SteelIndustry Status and Development Trend inIndonesia

• World Cobalt Industry Status andDevelopment Trend

• World Lithium-ion Battery CathodeMaterial Industry Status and DevelopmentTrend

• Study on the Feedback of BatteryRecycling on Nickel, Cobalt and LithiumRaw Materials

Multi-user Report

• China Cobalt Yearbook

• China Lithium Yearbook

• China Chrome Yearbook

• China Nickel and Stainless Yearbook

Yearbook

Reports on Nickel, Cobalt and Lithium

• Contact: Hannah Zhou

•Tel: 86 010-63978092-8079

•E-mail: [email protected]

•Web: www.antaike.com

•Contact：Summer Xia

•Tel：86 010-63978092-8061

•E-Mail：[email protected]

•Web：www.antaike.com

mailto:[email protected]

battery metals status and outlook

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