bert van walbeek master of disaster
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Master of Disaster :
How to become one !
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10 lessons to learn :
1 We love crises
2 Definition of crisis
3 We are not prepared
4 Be prepared : Do or Die
5 Manage your risks
6 Anatomy of a crisis
7 Leadership as the key
8 Lessons from the past
9 Lessons for the future
10 Crisis prevention
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Political
crisis
Financial
crisis
Oil crisis
Medical crisis
Terrorism
crisis
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It can happen to you too …………
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Lesson 1 :
We love
crises
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Crisis
junkies
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We love crises ….
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We shoot
ourselves
in the
head to
stop the
headache
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We love crises ….
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Man is something that
should be overcome. Zarathustra !
Politicians
Press
Experts
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Industry
leaders
We love crises ….
NTO
Academics
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Lesson 2 :
Definition
of crisis
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A crisis is when you can’t
say :
“ let‟s
forget
the
whole
thing ”
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Definition of crisis :
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Nothing new on the horizon ……..
history repeats itself
Danger/Problem Opportunity
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Definition of crisis :
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A crisis can be defined as :
“ Any situation which has the potential to
affect long term confidence in a
destination, or an organization and its
products, which can interfere with its
ability to continue operating normally.
Cassedy 1991
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Definition of crisis :
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Lesson 3 :
We are not
prepared
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Are you prepared ?
Do you look left and right
when you cross the street ?
Do you check this building„s fire escape ?
What is the emergency number here ?
What is your bloodtype ?
Do you have an I.C.E. number in your mobile ?
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We are not prepared :
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The essence of risk management
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Risk
Crisis
Disaster
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Challenge no. 1
Global Uncertainty
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Conclusion
We are not prepared :
Expect the
unexpected
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Lesson 4 :
Be prepared
:
Do or Die
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The optimist sees
opportunity in every
danger, the pessimist
sees danger in every
opportunity
Winston Churchill
Be prepared, Do or Die :
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By the time the
rules of the
game are clear,
the windows of
opportunity
have closed
Santhanam Shekar
Be prepared, Do or Die :
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Be prepared, Do or Die :
Die :
We thought
it wouldn’t
happen to
us ….
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CM Plan in your operational
Policy & Procedures ?
CM as part of your needs
and demands ?
Be prepared, Do or Die :
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Tourism product
providers
Tourism product
buyers
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Lesson 5 :
Manage
your risks
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Natural
Earthquake
Fire
Hurricanes
Medical epidemic
Man-made
Aircraft crash
Assault
Building fire/collapse
Civil/political unrest
Cruise ship / ferry disaster
Hijacking
Hostage situations
Surface transport accident
War
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Manage your risks :
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Webster's definition of risk:
Risk is the possibility of suffering loss.
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assess continuously
what can go wrong (risks).
determine what risks
are important to deal with.
implement strategies
to deal with those risk.
Manage your risks :
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Normal
accidents
Abnormal
accidents
Natural accidents
Wheel of crises
Ivan I.Mitroff
Murat C. Alpaslan
HBR, April 2003
Manage your
risks :
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KPMG’s Risk Preparedness Framework
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The essence of risk management
Risk Evaluation Matrix
Treat
risk
Terminate
risk
Tolerate
risk
Transfer
risk
Severity
High
High
Low
Low
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The essence of risk management
The Tourist Health and Safety Continuum :
Severity and frequency of incidents
Terrorism
Medical ailments,
hospitalization
Crime
Minor illness
Loss of personal affects
Minor incidents
Morbidity ( death )
Natural disaster
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1. Where is your computer back-up located ?
2. Do you carry an emergency contact card ?
3. Do you have an life insurance policy ?
4. When was your last medical check up ?
5. Do you have an “ emergency fund “ ?
Create a “crisis” and see what happens !
5 “ safety belts ” you could apply :
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Stop saying : “ that is not my job ! “
Initiate brainstorms
on risk awareness
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It won‟t happen to us …
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If you don‟t
control the
risks, the risks
will control you !
Initiate brainstorms
on risk awareness
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Lesson 6 :
Anatomy
of a crisis
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1. The Reduction stage :
detecting early warning signals
2. The Readiness stage:
preparing plans and
running exercises
3. The Response stage :
executing operational and
communication plans
4. The Recovery stage :
returning the organization to
normal after a crisis
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Anatomy of a crisis :
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1.1 Crisis Awareness
1.2 Political awareness
1.3 Standard Operating Procedures
2.1 Crisis Management Plan
2.2 Tourism planning
2.3 Health and safety measures
3.1 Emergency response procedures
3.2 Investigation
3.3 Family assistance
3.4 Communication
4.1 Business Continuity Plan
4.2 Human Resources
4.3 Debriefing
1 . Reduction
2. Readiness
3. Response
4. Recovery
1
3
4
2
The 4 phases :
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1.1 Crisis Awareness
1.2 Political awareness
1.3 Standard Operating Procedures
2.1 Crisis Management Plan
2.2 Tourism planning
2.3 Health and safety measures
3.1 Emergency response procedures
3.2 Investigation
3.3 Family assistance
3.4 Communication
4.1 Business Continuity Plan
4.2 Human Resources
4.3 Debriefing
1 . Reduction
2. Readiness
3. Response
4. Recovery
1
3
4
2
Anatomy of a crisis :
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Crisis Management
It won‟t happen to us ….
Crisis Awareness
Political awareness
Standard Operating Procedures
The Reduction Phase
Reduction
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Phase 1
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A crisis puts 4 important assets at risk :
Tangible : Employees / Guests
Office / Hotel / Coach
Intangible : Corporate reputation
Brand Image
Reduction
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1.1 Crisis Awareness
1.1.1 Identify risk & hazards
1.1.2 Identify possible impacts
1.1.3 Intelligence collection
1.2 Political awareness
1.2.1 Secure political cooperation
1.2.2 Increase political involvement
1.2.3 Link Tourism and Peace
Enhance staff awareness
1.3 Standard Operating Procedures
1.3.1 Anticipate problems
1.3.2 Revise procedures
1.3.3
Reduction
Anatomy of a crisis
Phase 1 :
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Reduction
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1.1 Crisis Awareness
1.1.1 Identify risk & hazards
1.1.2 Identify possible impacts
1.1.3 Intelligence collection
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Reduction
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1.2 Political Awareness
1.2.1 Secure political cooperation
1.2.2 Increase political involvement
1.2.3 Link Tourism and Peace
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Reduction
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1.3 Standing Operating Procedures
1.3.1 Anticipate problems
1.3.2 Revise procedures
1.3.3 Enhance staff awareness
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Crisis Management
It won‟t happen to us ….
Crisis Management Plan
Tourism planning
Health and safety measures
The Readiness Phase
Readiness
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Phase 2
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Readiness
2.3 Health and safety measures 2.3.2 Emergeny services
2.3.3 Hazards handling systems
2.3.1 Establish local network
2.2.1 Create awareness among industry
2.2 Tourism planning 2.2.2 Train staff
2.2.3 Advance decision making
2.1.1 Establish Crisis Management team
2.1 Crisis Management Plan 2.1.2 Crisis Management Plan
2.1.3 Simulation Exercises
Anatomy of a crisis
Phase 2 :
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Lessons to learn
Phase 2 :
"Being Ready"
Businesses
need to evaluate their crisis exposure
develop Strategic Plans,
Operational & Media Action Plans
regularly audit those plans
conduct crisis response exercises
acquire crisis management skills
Managers and staff need
to be psychologically prepared for the impact
and stresses that crisis events impose upon
them
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Readiness
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2.1 Crisis Management Plan
2.1.1. Establish CM team
2.1.2. Crisis Management Plan
2.1.3. Simulation Exercises
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Readiness
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2.2 Tourism Planning
2.2.1. Create awareness among industry
2.2.2. Train staff
2.2.3. Advance decision making
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Readiness
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2.3 Health and Safety measures
2.3.1. Establish local network
2.3.2. Emergency services
2.3.3. Hazards handling systems
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Crisis Management Planning
A Crisis Management Plan will allow to
Predict problems
Categorize steps prior to crisis
Empower Crisis Management Team
Allocate specific responsibilities
Focus on communication,
internal & external
Make critical decisions beforehand
Give time to think in tranquility
Readiness
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Crisis Management
It won‟t happen to us ….
Emergency response procedures
Family assistance
Communication
The Response Phase
Phase 3
Response
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3.1.1 Leadership3.1.2 Crisis response3.1.3 Internal - External communications3.1.4 External suppliers handling3.1.5 Hospital(s)3.1.6 Morgue(s)
3.2.1 Crime3.2.2 Legal & Political3.2.3 Insurance
3.3.1 Information handling3.3.2 Transportation3.3.3 Accommodation3.3.4 On site support
3.4.1 Media3.4.2 Hospital(s)3.4.3 Morgue(s)3.4.4 Investigation3.4.5 Government
Response
3.4 Communication
3.1 Emergency response procedures
3.3 Family assistance
3.2 Investigation
Anatomy of a crisis
Phase 3 :
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Crisis Response is dedicated to :
the immediate aftermath of the event,
the response to the impact of a crisis
the sustained efforts during
the course of the emergency.
Response
The emphasis is on:
saving lives,
controlling the situation, and
minimizing the effects of the disaster.
logistics of : rescue teams to the scene
getting medical care
food, water, shelter
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Media Communication
Challenges :
Better informed than you
Can create anxiety / panic
Speculate, report rumors and lay blame
Cause you to divert from your primary focus
Response Response structure
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Advantage
Be a source of information
Help to get across information
Reassure the stakeholders
Portray your position
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Media Communication
Assign press area
Appoint one main spokesperson
Have additional expert spokespersons
Response Response structure
Break the news as fast as possible
Establish the facts early
Tell the truth
Be human
Regular briefings
Contest rumor
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• Tell it all,
Tell it fast,
Tell the truth.
• Pity,
Praise,
Promise
Response Response structure
Media Communication guidelines
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The Role of the Public Sector
Destination Risk & Crisis
Management Plans
The role of the Private Sector
Organization‟s Risk & Crisis
Management Plans
“ Food for thought “
The Stakeholders wheel
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Crisis Management
It won‟t happen to us ….
Business Continuity Plan
Human Resources
Debriefing
The Recovery Phase
Phase 4
Recovery
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Recovery
4.3.1 Thank all involved
4.3 Debriefing 4.3.2 Follow up with victims
4.3.3 Update Crisis Management Plan
4.2.1 Impact of reduced labor needs
4.2 Human Resources 4.2.2 Motivation and training
4.2.3 Increase crisis awareness
4.1.1 Rehabilitation
4.1 Business Continuity Plan 4.1.2 Normalization
4.1.3 Expansion
Anatomy of a crisis
Phase 4 :
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The ultimate assessment can be made
from four measures of recovery :
1. the speed with which an organisation
regains or continues full business
operations
2. the degree to which an organisation
recovers
3. the amount of organisational and
operational improvement added during
recovery
4. the amount of crisis-resistance added
since the crisis arose
Recovery
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Lesson 7 :
Leadership
as key ….
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It won‟t happen to us ….
Leadership as key :
The Role of Leadership in a Crisis
“ I care, and I am accountable "
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Effective leaders during
a crisis must be able to :
tolerate confusion and hostility,
structure the decision problem,
separate what is important
and what is background noise.
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Crisis Management,
why reinvent the wheel ?
Negative examplesPositive
examples
1982 & 1986
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Leadership as key :
1988
1989
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Team
Leader
- Coordination
- Supervision
CEO
CFO
Personnel
Director
Legal
Counsel
- Liability
Issues
- Financial
Relations
- Staff Issues
- Community Issues
- Internal
Communications
- Spokesperson
- Decisions
Marketing
Director
Operations
Director
- Sales & Distribution
Issues
- Marketing Issues
- Customer Relations
- Media Relations
- External
Communications
- Government
Relations
- Production
issues
- Security
Public
Relations
Director
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Leadership as key :
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Lesson 8 :
Lessons
from the
past
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Egypt,
1990 - 1991
The world‘s oldest
travel destination
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Reach consumer ?
Advertising ?
Too expensive
Public Relations !
Expensive !
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Egypt,
1990 - 1991
Result :
Business back to
normal by June 91
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Egypt,
Long term effect :
Emergency PR program on
stand-by
Ready to “go“ within hours
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Luxor : Valley of the Kings
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Thailand,
May 1992
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T
h
a
i
l
a
n
d
Press
Retailer
Back to normal
inspections
Clear Thai
image trips
Come, See
& Tell
C
o
n
s
u
m
e
r
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Blueprint
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Results :
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7,326 articles traced around the world
Air and Hotel part big success,
tour and shopping not
Booking trends back to normal
by August 92
Grateful wholesalers, who
appreciated the support very much
Various awards for the program
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Lesson 9 :
Lessons for
the future
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T
E
A
M
ogether
ach
chieves
ore
“ I have a dream …..”
Nobody is
perfect,
but a team
can be !
We have to face the risks :
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What about SARS ?
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W.H.O
Question / challenge authority
CYA bureaucracy
No cooperation with tourism
Perception of illness
99,999999 % of population
free of SARS
99 die of flu in USA everyday
Killer virus : 94 % recovery rate
People :
Panic, Fear, Hysteria and Sensation
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What happened
December 26, 2003 ?
In the Bam area ( IRAN ) more
than 30,000 people killed,
30,000 injured, 85 % of buildings
damaged or destroyed and 90 %
infrastructure damaged
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Lessons from Indian Ocean Tsunami ?
A role, and
opportunity, for
education and
training
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Lesson 10 :
Crisis
Prevention
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THE ELEMENTS OF MARKETING PLANNING AS
A CUSTOMER SATISFYING ACTIVITY
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PRODUCTRANGE PLAN
PLANNING TO
MEET DEMAND
NEW PRODUCTDEVELOPMENT
MARKET SEGMENTATION
PLANS
SELLING
ADVERTISING
PACKAGING
PUBLICITY PROMOTION
STIMULATING
DEMAND
SATISFYING
DEMAND
PRICING
DISTRIBUTION
DELIVERY
SERVICE
CUSTOMERINTELLIGENCE
RECOGNIZING
DEMAND
FORECASTING
MARKETRESEARCH
CUSTOMER
THE ELEMENTS OF MARKETING PLANNING AS
A CUSTOMER SATISFYING ACTIVITY
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PRODUCTRANGE PLAN
PLANNING TO
MEET DEMAND
NEW PRODUCTDEVELOPMENT
MARKET SEGMENTATION
PLANS
SELLING
ADVERTISING
PACKAGING
PUBLICITY PROMOTION
STIMULATING
DEMANDSATISFYING
DEMAND
PRICING
DISTRIBUTION
DELIVERY
SERVICE
CUSTOMERINTELLIGENCE
RECOGNIZING
DEMAND
FORECASTING
MARKETRESEARCH
CUSTOMER
Crisis Prevention :
Newest Marketing Tool
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www.ternalert.org
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Crisis Prevention !
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www.apec.org
Crisis Prevention !
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Crisis Prevention !
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Crisis Management
Newest Marketing Tool
Reputation Management
Crisis Prevention
Crisis prevention
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It won‟t happen to us …
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Facing the Fear Factor
Guests, and
customers !
Destinations
and
Suppliers
To fear the worst
often cures the worse
Shakespeare
Newest marketing tool
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It won‟t happen to us …
If you don‟t
control the
risks, the risks
will control you !
We have to face the risks :
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10 lessons learned :
1 We love crises
2 Definition of crisis
3 We are not prepared
4 Be prepared : Do or Die
5 Manage your risks
6 Anatomy of a crisis
7 Leadership as the key
8 Lessons from the past
9 Lessons for the future
10 Crisis prevention
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If you don't know
where you are going ….
The bottom line !
… you will
probably
end up
somewhere
else !!!!
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You will be
tomorrow where
the thoughts of this
lecture take you !
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You are today where
your thoughts have
brought you …..
The bottom line !
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Accentuate
the positive
The bottom line
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Our goal is simple …to help you reach yours ! The Winning Edge :
473, Soi Uahwatanasakul 3
Pattanakarn 58 Road
Bangkok, 10250
Telephone : 0 2321 0522 - 3
Fax : 0 2722 7195
E-mail : [email protected]
Web site : www.twe-winningedge.com
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