big lies and small truths about big data
TRANSCRIPT
Big Lies and Small Truths
Tales from an Accidental Big Data Scientist
Share of mind leads share of market
What Marketing Wants
Share of mind leads share of market
What IT Perceives
Share of mind leads share of market
What Consumers Fear
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Big Data Process In a Nutshell
COLLECT REPORTANALYZE TAKE
ACTION
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Where is the Data From?
• Owned
• Purchased
• Created
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What Is The Data About? People
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What is the Data About? Things
Share of mind leads share of market
What Is The Data About? Things About People
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Big Lie #1
“It will take millions of dollars and a huge
Hadoop cluster to prove the utility of
BIG DATA”
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AvgAI
SIP
.ML
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Phrase.Count
500
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Start Small and Scale As Needed…
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Big Lie #2
“Once we have the data actionable
insights will start raining from the sky”
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Good Analysis is Tough and typically under resourced
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Need Technologist and Subject Matter Experts
Good Analysis is Tough and typically under resourced
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Big Lie #3
“Petabytes of data Plus statistical significance values of 0.00001 equals respect in the board room”
Or
“If you process it, they will come”
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Small Truth #3
• Report in the language of the decision maker• Empathy in report is critical to enable action
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Big Lie #4
“If we measure everything we will be measuring the right
things”
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“Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market … the iPhone won’t make a long term mark on the industry”Matthew Lynn - Bloomberg
“The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental structure or challenges of the mobile industry”Charles Golvin – Forrester Research
“The iPhone is a niche product”Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo – Nokia CEO in April 2008
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“If you can not measure it, you can not improve it.”Lord Kelvin
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Others predict based on what consumers bought, Argus Insights predicts based on what consumers love
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2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013
Mil
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Argus Insights Beat Wall Street Estimates for Q2 2013 iPhone Sales
Apple iPhone 4 Apple iPhone 4S Apple iPhone 5 Apple iPhone 3GS
Apple iPhone 3G Apple iPhone Quarterly iPhone Sales
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Consensus
Morgan Stanley
Argus InsightsEstimate Based on Apple’s Actual Q2
iPhone Unit Volume
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Argus Insights Proprietary Metrics Are Proven Predictors of Consumer Demand
23-Feb-13 23-Mar-13 23-Apr-13 23-May-13 23-Jun-13 23-Jul-13 23-Aug-13 23-Sep-13 23-Oct-13 23-Nov-13
Mapping Handset Consumer Buzz Metrics to Actual Handset Sales
Actual Sales/Returns for Specific Handset
Predicted Sales Using Argus Metrics from 8 weeks prior
Eight Weeks PredictingAdjusted R2 = 87.8%p-value = 4.547E-22
Han
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Using only our consumer metrics and retail pricing, Argus Insights was able to predict handset sales volume eight weeks into the future for a major smartphone brand
What Are They Really Talking About?
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Lots of chatter but few conversations
Nothing says “I love you” like a man’s armpit
wearing Old Spice inside of a tuxedo on a
battleship that has a mariachi band to serenade
you.
“Dear axe body spray, please out a suggested
serving size on your bottle. Sincerely, choking girls
everywhere.”
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Behavior over Buzz
• Brand Story
– Traditional media
– Digital media
– Digital Advocacy
• Product Reality
– Mostly shared in
consumer reviews
– Proven leading
indicator of sales
performanc
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When Consumers engage reveals how to
engage…
• Different segments of consumers engage at different times of the day
• Each segment has unique influences that shape advocacy
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Lipstick Mentions By Valid Consumers (Normalized to EST)
What to
What to Which What I saw!
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Behaviors Swamp Brands, Consumers Drive
Content
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Comparing Lipstick Mention vs. Brand Social Mentions
General Lipstick
Mentions Occur 100
times more than
any major brand
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VS
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Humankind has been fascinated for centuries!
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Tracking Target Segments since Oct 2012 in Twitter
Walking Dead Premiere
Vampire Diaries Premiere
Zombie Chatter is steadily 2X that of Vampire ChatterZombies are gender balanced. Twice as many women mention vampires
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Somewhere in suburban Georgia
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Introducing the Zompire Index
• Needed a way to track the both targets
• Normalized for state populations to understand relative strength of segment
• Since one target is larger than the other needed a way to balance
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Visualizing the Balance of Power across Target Segments
Deeper Dive into IoT
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Internet of Things continues to Drive Significant Social Buzz
IBM Pledges $3 billion to IoT Center
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IoT Attracts More Attention than Home Automation
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Wearables, driven only partially by Apple Watch Attract more Attention than IoT
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Even within IoT, Wearables drives more attention than Big Data
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Iot Means Many Things But Mainly Internet Of Things
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Industrial Internet is Getting the Most Attention Within IoT
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Security Concerns Trump Privacy Most Always
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Within IoT Manufacturing and Logistics Buzz is Limited
Significant discussion on privacy and security related to
manufacturing at US government level
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Bluetooth and WiFi dominate IoT discussions
ZigBee and Zwave fail to grab any attention
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Mind the Gap between Devices and Apps
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Smart Home App Experience As As Varied As The Brands That Make Them
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MSO Are Slowly Losing Ground With Consumers Based On App Experience
Size of bubble represents number of consumer App
Reviews (with text) per day
Delight Scale based on Consumer Star Ratings, most accurate public
metric of success
Data gather regularly from Apple, Google, Amazon and Windows App Stores
Slow decay over time is normal for brands that have not refreshed their user experience
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Though Falling, MSO’s Are Outperforming Almost Everyone Else, Even Nest!
MSO’s Dominate Category in Early 2015Vivint moves from 3rd to 1st place in hearts of consumers.
Alarm.com consistently delivers on promised experience
ADT offers a disappointing Smart Home Experience
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MSO’s Beat Out AT&T Across Many Aspects of the App Experience
MSO’s offer a more usable and
stable app experience
compared to AT&T
Red Illustrates % Of Reviews With Negative Views On Topic, Green Is Positive And Gray Is Neutral
AT&T Consumers suffer through
poorly crafted and sluggish
experience
Please contact us if you’d like to know more!
http://www.argusinsights.com Twitter: @argusinsights1-877-992-7487 [email protected]