big lies and small truths, tales from an accidental data scientist
DESCRIPTION
We have reached a stage in the evolution of Big Data where collecting and accessing tremendous amounts of data has moved from challenging to mundane. The next challenge will be in turning these storehouses into analytical work horses for businesses in a variety of marketplaces. In this talk, Dr. John Feland will describe the lessons he learned from deployments of predictive analytics in Digital Marketing and the Internet of Things. John will also share how he accidentally founded a Big Data company, what he has learned along the way to separate the hype from the useful, and where he postulates that Big Data could take us.TRANSCRIPT
- 1.Big Lies and Small Truths Tales from an Accidental Big Data Scientist
2. What Marketing WantsShare of mind leads share of market 3. What IT PerceivesShare of mind leads share of market 4. What Consumers FearShare of mind leads share of market 5. Big Data Process In a NutshellCOLLECTANALYZEREPORT 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributeTAKE ACTION Page 5 6. Where is the Data From? Owned Purchased Created 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 6 7. What Is The Data About? People 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 7 8. What is the Data About? Things 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 8 9. at Is The Data About? Things About PeopleShare of mind leads share of market 10. Big Lie #1It will take millions of dollars and a huge Hadoop cluster to prove the utility of BIG DATA 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 10 11. Start Small and Scale As Needed 120-10-20-30 Phrase.Count 500SIP.MLE-401000 315004200002500 3000-10-20-30-40 -1.0-0.50.00.51.0-1.0-0.50.00.51.0AvgAI 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 11 12. Big Lie #2Once we have the data actionable insights will start raining from the sky 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 12 13. Good Analysis is Tough and typically under resourced 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 13 14. Need Technologist and Subject Matter ExpertsGood Analysis is Tough and typically under resourced 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 14 15. Big Lie #3Petabytes of data Plus statistical significance values of 0.00001 equals respect in the board room OrIf you process it, they will come 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 15 16. Small Truth #3 Report in the language of the decision maker Empathy in report is critical to enable action 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 16 17. Big Lie #4If we measure everything we will be measuring the right things 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 17 18. Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market the iPhone wont make a long term mark on the industry Matthew Lynn - BloombergThe iPhone is a niche product Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo Nokia CEO in April 2008The iPhone will not substantially alter the fundamental structure or challenges of the mobile industry Charles Golvin Forrester Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute 2013 Argus ResearchPage 18 19. If you can not measure it, you can not improve it. Lord Kelvin 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 19 20. Others predict based on what consumers bought, Argus Insights predicts based on what consumers love7000Argus Insights 60 Estimate BasedApples Actual Q2 iPhone Unit Volume6000505000404000 303000Morgan Stanley 202000 100010Consensus00 Qtr1Qtr2Qtr3Qtr4Qtr1Qtr2Qtr3Qtr4Qtr1Qtr22011201120112011201220122012201220132013Copyright 2013 Argus Insights, Inc.Apple iPhone 4Apple iPhone 4SApple iPhone 5Apple iPhone 3GSApple iPhone 3GMillions of iPhones; Billions of dollars in RevenueBuzz Volume for iPhone ModelsArgus Insights Beat Wall Street Estimates for Q2 2013 iPhone SalesApple iPhoneQuarterly iPhone Sales 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 20 21. Digital Advocacy over Digital Impressions Digital Impression metrics are limited by accuracy and availability Simply adding up all the followers/fans does not capture Much of Facebook advocacy actions are hidden from brandsExtroIntro Digital Advocacy metrics are better predictors of Enterprise Consumer B2E C2C market performance Digital Advocacy can be separated by type to measure market C2B B2B response to Brand B2C initiatives and campaigns #LOrealUSA Talent Recruitment will host our first ever DC Information Session with studentsAt Carnegie Hall for the glamourmag #WomenOfTheYear Awards #glamourwoty sponsored 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute by lorealparisMy mascara came out so beautiful today I LOVE MAYBELLINE@LOrealParisUSA I've been using these two products for four days and I can already tell a difference in my skin Congrats to @michellephan on her new makeup launch!!! #EM #L'OrealLuxe cerminaraerin @ L'Oreal USA HQ Page 21 22. Results of iPhone 5S and 5C launch AKA We miss Steve! 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 22 23. Samsung and Apple Consumers Held Their Breath Before the iPhone Launch 1 0.68Apple0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1419242934Week Number10.63Samsung0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1419242934Week Number 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 23 24. Other Handset Customers Barely Skipped A Beat HTC10.550.5 0 1419242934LG1 0.5 0.430Motorola1424293410.550.5 0 14Nokia19192429341 0.5 0.510 14192429 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not Distribute34 Page 24 25. Less surprises equals less buzz 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 25 26. iPhone 5C is the Worst Launch in Apples History 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 26 27. What Are They Really Talking About? 28. Lots of chatter but few conversations Dear axe body spray, please out a suggested serving size on your bottle. Sincerely, choking girls everywhere.Nothing says I love you like a mans armpit wearing Old Spice inside of a tuxedo on a battleship that has a mariachi band to serenade you. 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 28 29. Behavior over Buzz Brand Story Product Reality Traditional media Digital media Digital Advocacy Mostly shared in consumer reviews Proven leading indicator of sales performanc 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 29 30. When Consumers engage reveals how to engage Lipstick Mentions By Valid Consumers (Normalized to EST)Consumer Tweets from Dallas, NYC, and San Jose300WhichWhat to250What I saw!200What to150 100 50 0123456789101112131415161718192021222324 Different segments of consumers engage at different times of the day Each segment has unique influences that shape advocacy 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 30 31. Behaviors Swamp Brands, Consumers Drive Content Social Mentions from 27 Nov - 2 Dec 2013Comparing Lipstick Mention vs. Brand Social Mentions 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000General Lipstick Mentions Occur 100 times more than any major brand100000 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 31 32. VS 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 32 33. Humankind has been fascinated for centuries! 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 33 34. Tracking Target Segments since Oct 2012 in Twitter Walking Dead PremiereZombies Zombie Chatter is steadily 2X that of Vampiremention vampires are gender balanced. Twice as many women Chatter Vampire Diaries Premiere 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 34 35. Somewhere in suburban Georgia 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 35 36. Introducing the Zompire Index Needed a way to track the both targets Normalized for state populations to understand relative strength of segment Since one target is larger than the other needed a way to balance 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 36 37. Visualizing the Balance of Power across Target Segments 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 37 38. More recently. 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 38 39. Tech Industry Drives Social Buzz 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 39 40. Lenovo Buying a Challenged Brand 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 40 41. 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 41 42. 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributePage 42 43. So What About Social Media, What Do Consumers Say? 10 8/14/201310/3/201311/22/20131/11/20141Motorola0.35 38.003/2/20140.5Apple0.79 319.000 8/14/201310/3/201311/22/20131/11/20143/2/201410 8/14/201310/3/201311/22/20131/11/2014 2013 Argus Insights, Inc. Confidential: Do Not DistributeSamsung0.63 222.003/2/2014 Page 43 44. Please contact us if youd like to know more! http://www.argusinsights.com Twitter: @argusinsights 1-877-992-7487 [email protected]