bilateral trade relations between australia and china
TRANSCRIPT
BILATERAL TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN AUSTRALIA AND CHINASYDNEY, 27TH JULY 2021
Heiko Stumpf
Director Australia & New Zealand
www.gtai.com
© GTAI 2
Who we are
Foreign trade and inward investment agency
of the Federal Republic of Germany
Shareholder
© GTAI 3
Export
Promotion
New Federal States & Structural
Transformation
Location
Marketing
Investor
Consulting
© GTAI 4
Australia is highly dependent on China
34.3
38.240.2
12.4
7.4
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Destination of Australian Exports (Share in %)
China
Japan
EU28
Südkorea
USA
Indien
Source: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade 2021
The share of Australian exports destined to China increased tremendously
© GTAI 5
Bilateral Trade more than doubled in 10 years
20.4
58.4
71.5 68.175.7
83.075.7
82.3
100.2
118.7
149.2 146.3
25.4
39.2 42.0 44.4 47.252.1
61.8 59.564.5
74.9 79.584.6
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
2006 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Bilateral Trade between Australia and China (in million A$)
Export Import
Source: Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources
China is also Australia‘s largest source of imports
© GTAI 6
Barley growers found alternative markets
Barley exports recovered after drought related losses
Source: UN Comtrade, © GettyImages/Juice Images Ltd
6.1
2.9
4.34.7
1.6 1.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Australian Barley Exports (in million tonnes)
World China
-15.0 %
48.3 %
-61.1 %
-53.2 %
© GTAI 7
Australian abattoirs banned to export to China
Source: UN Comtrade, © GettyImages/Claudiad
1.3
1.1
0.30.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Australian Beef Exports (in million tonnes)
World China
Australian farmers are restocking their herds after
drought
-33.6%
-15.4%
© GTAI 8
801.2729.7 694.8
146.1 120.752.2
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-Jun
Australian Wine Exports (in million liters June YTD)
World China
Wine exports hid hardWine makers lost a very lucrative market
Source: Wine Australia, © Gettyimages / Markus Gann / EyeEm
-56.7 %
-4.8 %
© GTAI 9
Export ban on lobster leaves fischers struggling
Source: UN Comtrade, ©GettyImages/mikdam
3,614.7
1,074.9
0.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
20,000.0
25,000.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Australian Crustaceans Exports (in tonnes)
World China
-70.3%
Fishermen forced to leave the industry
© GTAI 10
Australian agriculture is in very good shape
Source: Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment ABARES June Quarter
2021 ; f=forecast; ©GettyImages/Martin Harvey
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21f
2021/22f
Australian Agricultural Exports (in million $A)
World China
6.4%
Exports of wool and lamb to China are forecast to grow
© GTAI 11
Chinese imports of Australian coal literally stoppedChina replaced Australian cocking coal with shipments from Canada, the US, Russia and Mongolia
Source: UN Comtrade, Image © GettyImages/Monty Rakusen
396.1371.3
92.4
73.9
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Australian Coal Exports (in million tonnes)
World China
-6.3%
-20.1%
© GTAI 12Source: Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, f = forecast
Export forecasts for Australian coal areoptismistic
173 179 184 172 176 183 189
200208 212
200 200210 213
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 f 2022 f 2023 f
Australian Coal Exports (in million tonnes)
Thermal Coal
Metallurgical Coal
Australian coal producers are increasing their shipments to alternative
markets like Japan, South Korea or India
© GTAI 13
Australia is the world’s largest exporter of iron ore
Other
Asia
99.4
869.4
55.3
330.3
Canada
Brazil
Netherlands
Germany
South Africa
South Korea
Japan
China
India
Quelle: Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, UN Comtrade
Top 5 Exporters
(million tonnes)
Top 5 Importers
(million tonnes)
52.2
65.5
1,170.1
70.434.58.6
© GTAI 14
China buys 80 percent of Australia‘s iron oreexports
80.3%
6.1%
6.0 %
2.2%
1.6 %
South Korea: 53.2 Mt
Japan: 52.1 Mt869.4 Mt
Other Asia: 13.8 Mt
Singapore: 19.1 Mt
Quelle: UN Comtrade
China: 716 Mt
© GTAI 15
Iron ore mining in Australia is a highlyautomated mega industry
Images ©Fortescue Metals, © BHP
© GTAI 16Source: Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, f = forecast
Quo vadis? China intends to develop hugeiron ore mines in Western Africa
827835 836
867860
949962
750
800
850
900
950
1000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 f 2022 f 2023 f
Australian Iron Ore Exports (in million tonnes)
Simandou Iron Ore project in Guinea is at least 5 to 7 years away
© GTAI 17
Nationality 2019 2020 Growth on
2019
Share of all
nationalities
China 260,042 229,448 -11.8 % 26.0 %
India 142,821 148,684 4.1 % 16.8 %
Nepal 68,920 71,117 3.2 % 8.1 %
Brazil 40,763 33,563 -17.7 % 3.8 %
Colombia 31,716 32,877 3.7 % 3.7 %
Other
nationalities
408,009 366,793 -10.1 % 41.6 %
All nationalities 952,271 882,482 -7.3 % 100.0 %
Education is Australia‘s 4th largest export
Source: Department of Education, Skills and Employment, © ViktorCap/istock.com
Development of international student numbers from
China still unclear
© GTAI 18Source: KPMG/Sydney University.
Note: Prior year annual figures are updated with the latest information as new information becomes available and as required
Chinese outward direct investment in Australia is on a downward traction
1,539
16,200
8,549
3,916
9,40110,105
9,1858,351
10,140
11,538
10,008
6,243
2,362 1,936
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Chinese ODI into Australia (in million US$)
© GTAI 19
Interested in setting up business in
Germany?
Contact our Sydney office
Heiko Stumpf
Director
T +61 (0)2 8296 0494
Carola Jäger
Consultant
T +61 (0)2 8296 0417
SUPPORTED BY THE FEDERAL MINISTRY FOR ECONOMIC AFFAIRS AND ENERGY ON THE BASIS OF A DECISION BY THE GERMAN BUNDESTAG.© Germany Trade & Invest
All market data provided is based on the most current market information available at the time of publication. Germany Trade & Invest accepts no liability for the actuality, accuracy, or completeness of the information provided.
© GTAI 20
For more information
www.gtai.de