biomass conversion on the cusp of commercialization€¦ · on the cusp of commercialization...
TRANSCRIPT
Biomass Conversion On the cusp of commercialization Sebastian Søderberg, Vice President Biomass Conversion, Novozymes Claus Crone Fuglsang, Vice President R&D, Novozymes
João Alberto F. de Abreu, Executive Director Agroindustrial, Raízen
This presentation and its related comments contain forward-looking statements, including statements about future events,
future financial performance, plans, strategies and expectations. Forward-looking statements are associated with words
such as, but not limited to, "believe," "anticipate," "expect," "estimate," "intend," "plan," "project," "could," "may," "might"
and other words of similar meaning.
Forward-looking statements are by their very nature associated with risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results
to differ materially from expectations, both positively and negatively. The risks and uncertainties may, among other things,
include unexpected developments in i) the ability to develop and market new products; ii) the demand for Novozymes’
products, market-driven price decreases, industry consolidation, and launches of competing products or disruptive
technologies in Novozymes’ core areas; iii) the ability to protect and enforce the company’s intellectual property rights; iv)
significant litigation or breaches of contract; v) the materialization of the company’s growth platforms, notably the
opportunity for marketing biomass conversion technologies or the development of microbial solutions for broad-acre crops;
vi) the political conditions, such as acceptance of enzymes produced by genetically modified organisms; vii) the global
economic and capital market conditions, including, but not limited to, currency exchange rates (USD/DKK and EUR/DKK in
particular, but not exclusively), interest rates and inflation; viii) significant price decreases on input and materials that
compete with Novozymes’ biological solutions. The company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking
statements as a result of future developments or new information.
Forward-Looking Statements
2
Session outline
• Progress and challenges last 18 months
• Reasons to believe in biomass conversion
• Innovation priorities
• Raízen: Views from leading brazilian sugar cane crusher and biomass conversion pioneer
3
15 years of continuous development and one of our largest R&D investments
Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition
4
2001
Launch of Cellic®
CTec for the first
cellulosic ethanol
demonstration plants
The first commercial
cellulosic ethanol
plant: Crescentino –
using Novozymes’
Cellic® technology
Biomass conversion
pilot plants worldwide
testing Novozymes
enzymes
One of largest R&D
investments in
Novozymes’ history
was initiated
Five of seven large
scale biomass
conversion ethanol
plants globally use
Cellic® technology
Exclusive partnership
with Brazil’s largest
sugar-based ethanol
producer
2005 2009 2012 2013 2015
Foundation Pilot stage Demo stage Initial commercial stage Optimization stage
Biomass conversion industry today Biomass conversion industry in fall 2013
Progress towards commercialization since Capital Markets Day 2013
• Beta Renewables’ Crescentino plant is the world’s first and only commercially operating cellulosic ethanol plant
• Three plants under construction in the US and two in LA
• Large number of publicly announced biomass conversion projects
• Expectation of a relatively fast industry commercialization
• Novozymes’ Cellic® CTec3 is the leading enzyme technology (one size fits all enzyme product)
Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition
5
• Six commercial plants are in operation with Novozymes supplying five of them. DuPont to be #7
• All process steps undergoing optimizations
• 20+ solid biomass conversion projects are under development globally (not all publicly announced)
• Recognition that industry commercialization will take longer
• Novozymes is committed to pursue further process optimizations beyond enzymes. Our customized next generation Cellic® enzyme solutions are being launched
• Novozymes heavily engaged in project development with “boots on the ground” globally
Headwinds and longer timelines than anticipated, but several reasons lead us to believe that these will be overcome
• New industries take time – it’s a marathon, not a sprint
• Many industries deliver lower Capex over time
• Novozymes as a full biotech solutions provider to bolster biomass conversion process optimization
• Healthy project pipeline continues to mature
Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition
6
Prolonged industry ramp-up
• Up-scaling of commercial plants takes longer than expected. From serving 15 plants by 2017 to an assumption of ~15 by 2020
• New projects struggle to find financing, as everyone is in waiting mode to get confirmation of the economics
• Some projects have been cancelled or on hold
• Expectation that internal combustion engines / liquid fuels will play a substantial role in the future
• National blending mandates in the EU (Italy announced, more in the making)
• Brazil ethanol blending mandate increase to E27
Macro and regulatory uncertainty
• Lower oil price casts uncertainty and makes for a tougher environment for biofuels – particularly in the US and Asia
• US ethanol demand stuck in limbo due to the blend wall and unclear regulatory framework
Comparable disruptive technologies have taken 15+ years to take off; enabling an industry is a “marathon” with multiple hurdles to be overcome
Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition
7
Source: US Renewable Fuels Association (annual capacities) after 1999 and SRI (from 1990); Industry reports; McKinsey analysis
Comparable disruptive technologies have taken ~15 years to reach commercial scale
Enabling an industry is a “marathon” journey – resilience is key
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Installed corn ethanol capacity (U.S.), 1990–2014
Million gallons/year
Gas production from shale gas
Billion cubic feet per day
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
+57%
+31%
2012 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 2000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
+23%
+27%
2013 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 2000
+4%
+29%
+9%
2014 12 10 08 06 04 02 2000 98 96 94 92 1990
Global solar power cumulative installed PV capacity 2000–2012
MW
Global cumulative installed wind capacity 1996–2013
MW
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
+38%
+25%
2013 12 11 10 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 2000
Wind
Solar Corn ethanol
Shale gas
Significant learnings in first biomass conversion plants and the example of the US 1G industry suggest that Capex will reduce for the next wave of biomass conversion plants
Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition
8
0
100
200
300
400
500
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Capex development over time
Example: 1st generation corn ethanol plants in the U.S.
Source: Data: LeBlanc and Prato, 1982, Gavett et al.1986, Whims, 2002, Understanding the reductions In US
corn ethanol production costs
Cap
ex, U
SD
(2005)
/ m
3
Plant production capacity 1,000 m3 / year
1981
1985
2001
Major reasons for reduced Capex:
• Optimized plant and process design including less over-engineering
• Bolt-on solutions use existing infrastructure and utilities
• Development of standard modules
In spite of existing challenges, we see a solid project pipeline that continues to mature across regions
While several biomass conversion ethanol plants are already operating, more than 20 solid biomass conversion
projects are under development globally (not all publicly announced)
Different business models:
• Co-marketing with Beta
Renewables
• Project development
• Large strategic partners e.g.
Raízen
Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition
9
*Non-exhaustive
Project Alpha
Project Italy
Teck Guan
Punjab
Publicly announced, commercial biomass conversion projects under development by region (Q1/2015)*
Major improvements in Novozymes’ enzyme technology have been a key enabler of biomass conversion commercialization and will drive further plant optimization
Customized Cellic® enzyme
technology: Further improvement is
achieved through customization of
enzymes to match specific process
and feedstock 0
20
40
60
80
100
2015 2018 2012 2008 2010 2009 2007
Cellic®
CTec
Cellic®
CTec2
Cellic®
CTec3
Years
Customized
Cellic® 1.0
Enzyme use costs develop-ment (indexed)
Sweet-spot optimized enzyme dosing
Enzymes as a valuable tool:
Sweet-spot optimized enzyme dosing
ensures the lowest unit cost of ethanol
cost. For example, improved enzyme
performance has been shown to reduce
the use of acid in pretreatment
Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition
10
Pretreatment
severity
Enzyme
dosing
Total solids
loading
Hydrolysis
time
Biomass to sugar
conversion
Sweet spot
optimized to get
the lowest unit
cost of ethanol
Novozymes biotech solutions continue to bolster biomass conversion process optimization and its competitiveness
• Novozymes launches new family of customized Cellic® enzymes tailored to reduce enzyme cost and
improve production performance
• Ongoing optimization of all process steps will further reduce production
costs
Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition
11
Cellic® CTec3 Customized Cellic® solutions Customized Cellic® solutions+ further process optimizations e.g.
yeast
Cellu
losic
eth
an
ol p
rod
ucti
on
co
sts
New customized Cellic® solutions and further process optimizations continue to
reduce biomass conversion costs
Note: Based on NREL acid pretreatment process
Pretreatment Hydrolysis Fermentation
Customized Cellic® solutions + further process
optimizations e.g. yeast
Customer-centric Novozymes Cellic® enzyme development – tailored to the individual process and feedstock • Diverging processes with different
feedstocks are being established at industrial scale
• For every combination of process and feedstock, there will be an optimal enzyme system
• Every enzyme system benefits from optimization work
Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition
12
Biomass Pretreatment Biomass after pretreatment
Cellulose Hemicellulose Lignin
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Steam
Acid
Alkali
Org. solvents
Tailored Cellic®
solutions
Energy crops
Wheat straw
Bagasse
Corn stover
Customized Cellic® enzyme solutions; process, feedstock, temperature and pH
% c
on
ve
rsio
n
Enzyme-relative dose
Key benefits vs. Cellic® CTec3
• Yield boost – Improved hydrolysis performance on xylan-rich substrates
• Robust activity – Broader pH and temperature profiles provide robust activity
• Contamination control – Higher hydrolysis temperature and lower pH inhibit contamination
• Lower OPEX – Reduced base consumption and waste treatment costs
What’s next?
• Adapt customization to evolving partner processes
• Continue optimization efforts together with partners – to drive out cost not only of enzymes but also of process and potential Capex
Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition
13
Cellic® CTec3
Customized
Cellic®
E2G Program João Alberto F. de Abreu
Agenda
Introduction to Raízen
Raízen's strategy
How 2G fits into this
Current status on Raízen's 2G efforts
Learnings from plant #1 (in broad terms)
Obstacles to overcome for the industry/Raízen
Opportunities and plans for the future
Upstream
Lubrificantes
Downstream
Cosan Lubrificantes e especialidades
Raízen
Business dimensions World’s largest sugar producer and
Brazil’s largest sugarcane ethanol producer
915,000 ha of cultivated area
96% mechanized harvesting
2 bi liters of ethanol
4 m tons of sugar
941 MW of installed capacity
Fuel distribution A highly efficient and reliable network
5245 Retail stations
910 Convenience stores
60 Distribution depots
58 Airports bases
23,6 Billion m³
Raízen – general numbers in 2013/14
Brazil 1º 640
India 2º 240
China 4º 100
Thailand 3º 110 Pakistan 7º 50
6º Mexico 58
Australia 8º 32
19
World cane crushing (mln t)
5º 61,4
* Source: LMC.
Ethanol, sugar and bioenergy
Strategic drivers
Business drivers
Enablers
Cost reduction
Productivity
Portfólio management
HSSE
People
ROACE
X%
Crushing
65,4MM TC
Aspiration: Lower cost of production per sugarcane tones
Biomass
Ethanol, sugar and bioenergy Production
24 Mills
São Francisco, Rafard, Bom Retiro, Santa Helena, Costa Pinto
Barra, Dois Córregos, Diamante
Bonfim, Tamoio, Serra, Zanin
Paralcool, Tarumã, Maracaí, Ipaussu
Gasa, Univalem, Destivale, Mundial, Benálcool, Junqueira
Jataí
Caarapó
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Votuporanga
Itapeva
Registro
Sorocaba
Gal. Salgado
Orlândia Franca
S. J. da Boa Vista
Mogi Mirim
Campinas Bragança Paulista
São Paulo
Mogi das Cruzes
Pindamonhangaba
Guaratinguetá
Ilha de São Sebastião (Ilha Bela)
Fernandópolis
Santos
Jales
Dracena
Pres. Venceslau Pres. Prudente
Tupã
Marília
Baurú
Avaré
Botucatu
S. J. do Rio Preto
Ribeirão Preto
Barretos
Andradina
Araçatuba
Catanduva
Jaboticabal
Lins
Itapetininga
Assis
Ourinhos
Piracicaba
Limeira
Araraquara
Jaú
Junq
CA
JAT
Gasa
Mund
Univ
Dest Ben
Ipau
Tar
Mar
Par
49 Km
Diam DC
Barra
Bonf
Serra Zanin
Tam
23 K
m
UBR
Raf IASF
USH
CoPi
11,1 Mtc
11,3 Mtc
12,0 Mtc
12,1 Mtc
Greenfield in MS
2,3 Mtc
10,9 Mtc
2,9 Mtc
Greenfield in GO
4,1 Mtc
Santos Port
Tops & leaves can be the main feedstock for 2G if the industry overcomes logistics challenges
Mechanization process has been increasing
significantly and has reached 65% in
industry
Not burning means extra 45M ton of
biomass available in the industry.
Two process must be selected :
Bring biomass together with the
sugarcane
Bales collection system
Potential of biomass Ethanol production per hectare
85 tons 23,8 tons
14,1 tons
CANE STALK MILL
JUICE
BAGASSE
SUGAR
ETHANOL
DRY LEAVES
GREEN LEAVES
TOPS
BIOMASS
Max. 7 a 8 m3
Extra 2 m3
ETHANOL
Integration opportunities
Plug & play 2G with a 1G plant
Opportunities 120 MM Liters
Steam/Power Supply
1. Retrofit of an existing boiler instead of installing a new boiler.
2. Lignin burning supplies steam and power required by 2G process.
Biomass Handling 1. Synergies with existing assets;
2. Existing know-how.
C6 Fermentation 1. Existing know-how.
Distillation 1. Synergies with existing assets;
2. Existing know-how.
Water / Vinasse Utilities 1. Synergies with 1G water balance (final molasses dilution);
2. Retrofit of existing vinasse disposal system;
3. Existing know-how about vinasse disposal.
4. Operational synergies between 2G and 1G process (utilities, lignin
handling, offices, warehouse, maintenance, etc.)
Sugarcane segment scenario in Brazil Enormous changes since 2009
Number of new production units in the Centre-South region
Number of closed mills
More than 50 kMT of crushing capacity lost
Brazilian matrix of fuel Projections 2020-2025
2015 2020 2025
Sugarcane (million tons) 641 600 650
Sugar (million tons) 35,6 40,5 46,3
Exportation assumption 24,4 28,8 34,0
Ethanol (billion liters)
Anhydrous (27%) 11,9 16,5 20,0
Hydrous 15,3 3,5 0,0
Exportation 1,0 1,2 3,3
Others 1,1 1,2 1,3
Available ATR (million tons)
Supply 87,2 82,8 91,0
Demand 87,2 82,8 91,6
Volume gap 0,59
Sugar (million tons) 0,567
EtoH anhydrous (billion liters) 0,340
Fuels (billion liters)
Current gasoline (EPE) 30,6 31,4
Gasoline demand 44,7 54,1
Volume gap 14,2 22,7
Even considering no hydrous ethanol supply,
sugarcane volume is slightly lower than
market requirements
Conservative importation volume (low fuel
consumption growth and decreasing Brazilian
sugar global market share)
Capacity: 42.200 m3/year
Capex: ~230 MM R$
Commissioning:
Out/2014 – C6 Fermentation;
Out/2015 – C5 Fermentation.
Project E2G COPI (Costa Pinto)
Located in
Costa Pinto Mill
Piracicaba, SP
E2G plant Project details
Construction area: 10.000m² + 30.000m² for biomass storage*. * Biomass storage area considers existing one.
Budget: R$ ~230MM.
Contractors: average 200 with a peak of 500.
800.000 working hours with no lost time incident
Timing : 14 months.
Equipments: 98% produced in Brazil.
2014 operation Main achievements
All process units in E2G plant tested; Biomass handling and storaging as expected; Perfect integration between E2G plant and existing mill; Successfull technology scale up from demo to commercial scale; Enzyme logistics validated; Process Control implemented and tested.
Movie
2014 operation Action plan based on learnings
Evaluation of process and equipment performance; Evaluation of main operation issues; erosion Process optimization in order to reach maximum capacity; Implement improvements based on lessons learned; Commissioning of dedicated boiler for E2G plant.
Challenges Fermentation
Develop GMO yeast to produce ethanol from C5 (xylose); Choosing best fermentation design (once-through vs recycle); Develop process/equipment for yeast propagation on-site; Operation according to GMO regulation (CTNBio); Fermentation engineering and construction.
Second
Gen.
Ethanol
-Biomass Trial;
- Technology Validation;
- Project Starts.
- COPI Operation;
- Technological Platform Advances;
- Progress of Innovation Program;
- Begin 2nd Plant Design
- 8 integrated plants;
- Technology Licensing;
- Technology to maximize biomass economics;
- Integration with Chemical plants.
2012
Demonstration
2014
COPI
1 billion liters
technology licensing
E2G roadmap Plan
Current land use in Brazil Sugarcane for ethanol occupies less than 1% of the Brazilian land mass
851.48 Millions of Hectares
Total Area
329.94
Arable Area
158.75
Pasture
51.7
Agriculture
8.14
Sugarcane
495.61
Protected & Native
58% 38%
25.92
Other
3%
111.34
Available
100%
2.4%
33%
48% 16%
35
Production map Sugarcane in Brazil
Bonsucro:
Non-profit organization with 176 members of various
countries and sectors: agricultural producers, mills,
consumers, NGOs, traders
Multi-stakeholder process to measure, through metric
indicators, the environmental, social and economic
performance of sugarcane-based activities
Chosen by the EU as one of seven authorized schemes to
allow for the export of sugarcane products to Europe
Bonsucro certification
Only international certification for sugar and ethanol made form sugarcane
Raízen:
1st certified mill in the world
10 mills already certified: Maracaí, Jataí, Costa Pinto, Bom
Retiro, Bonfim, Univalem, Gasa, Dois Córregos, Junqueira
and Serra.
32,1% of total sugarcane crushed by the company
712,000 m³ of ethanol
Member of Bonsucro’s executive board
Commitment to certify all mills
CO2 emissions
2G improves the carbon footprint of Raízen
Gasoline Ethanol 1G Ethanol 2G
Conclusion
• Biomass conversion remains a transformative opportunity
• Getting biomass conversion off the ground has taken longer time than anticipated
• Steady improvements and significant progress made over last 2 years
• Ramp-up process key to biotechnology development and industry commercialization
Business Development – BioAgriculture – Biomass Conversion – Animal Health & Nutrition
38