© OECD/IEA, 2016

Boosting sustainable mobility and delivering on the Paris Agreement and the New Urban Agenda

COP 22, Marrakech, Morocco

12 November 2016

Jean-François Gagné

Energy Technology Policy Division Head

International Energy Agency

© OECD/IEA, 2016

The IEA works around the world to support an

accelerated clean energy transition that is

enabled by real-world SOLUTIONS

supported by ANALYSIS

and built on DATA

© OECD/IEA, 2016

IEA supports the low-carbon transition

IEA: the global energy authority Part of the OECD family

Founded in 1974 to co-ordinate a response to oil supply disruptions

2015: IEA Modernisation grounded on three main pillars

global energy security

energy cooperation and global dialogue

promoting an environmentally sustainable energy future

Build on a decade of analysis on what we need to do to keep temperature increase below 2°C

Now developing analysis on faster and deeper energy-sector decarbonisation

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Sizing the scale of the challenge…

The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two-thirds through a diversified energy technology mix

Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Renewables 32%

Energy efficiency 32%

Fuel switching 10%

Nuclear 11%

CCS 15%2DS

4DS

© OECD/IEA, 2016

… and its solutions

© OECD/IEA, 2016

But the challenge increases to get from 2 degrees to “well below” 2 degrees

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Energy- and process-related CO2 emissions by sector in the 2DS

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

Agriculture 2%

Buildings 8%

Industry 33%

Transport 24%

Other transformation 4%

Power 29%

Industry and transport account for 75% of the remaining emissions in the 2DS in 2050.

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Non-urban - Well to Tank Non-urban - Tank to Wheel

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

3 wheelers

Medium trucks

Light commercial

Rail

Shipping

Heavy trucks

Mt of CO2 equivalent

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

2 & 3 wheelers

Cars

Buses andminibuses

Rail

Air

Mt of CO2 equivalent

Urban - Well to Tank Urban - Tank to Wheel

Passenger Freight

Well-to-wheels GHG emissions in 2015, by mode

Understanding transport impacts: Mode matters

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Transport is the least diversified energy demand sector

Solutions need to be adapted transportation modes

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Impacts to global cumulative CO2 reductions

CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2

0

10

20

30

40

50

4DS Urbanreductions

Non-urbanreductions

2DS

2014 2050

Gt

CO

2

Power & heat

Industry

Transport

Buildings

Urban Urban

Non urban

Non urban

Urban

Non urban

urban Non

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Cities represent 70% of the cost-effective CO2 abatement potential by 2050

Cities are key to carbon abatement

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Non-urban - Well to Tank Non-urban - Tank to Wheel

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

3 wheelers

Medium trucks

Light commercial

Rail

Shipping

Heavy trucks

Mt of CO2 equivalent

0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500

2 & 3 wheelers

Cars

Buses andminibuses

Rail

Air

Mt of CO2 equivalent

Urban - Well to Tank Urban - Tank to Wheel

Passenger Freight

Well-to-wheels GHG emissions in 2015, by mode

Understanding transport impacts: Mode matters

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Transport is the least diversified energy demand sector

Solutions need to be adapted transportation modes

© OECD/IEA, 2016

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2-e

q

OECD

2DS

4DS6DS

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Non-OECD

6DS

4DS

2DS

Avoid/Shift Low-carbon fuels Vehicle efficiency

Avoid/Shift Low carbon fuels Vehicle efficiency

UrbanNon-urban

Need to decouple activity & emissions Avoid/shift, vehicle efficiency, low carbon fuels

GHG Emissions in the 2DS, 4DS, and 6DS – 2010 to 2050

© OECD/IEA, 2016

OECD transport emissions have peaked,

while Non-OECD transport emissions can be brought back to current levels in 2050

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Transport energy demand projections Policy and technology have great potential

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100 110

2DS 4DS 6DS 2DS 4DS 6DS

2015 2050 2015 2050

Urban Non-urban

EJ

WorldOther

Hydrogen

Natural gas

Electricity

Biofuels

Liquid fuels fromfossil energy

Global Energy for Transport in 2015 & in 2050 in the ETP Scenarios

© OECD/IEA, 2016

2DS sees a net global decline in transport energy demand, but not in all regions

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Urban transport investments

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

4DS 2DS

2015 2050

USD

tri

llio

n

Internal combustion engine

Electrified

Parking and road

Metro and light rail

Infrastructure

Vehicles

© OECD/IEA, 2016

In the 2DS, by 2050 one billion cars are electric vehicles

while public transport travel activity more than doubles

Sustainable transport systems: a cheaper way to provide service

© OECD/IEA, 2016

SUSTAINABLE URBAN ENERGY SOLUTIONS

Business Models

• Integrated service offerings

• Energy performance contracting

• Eco-Choice labelling

National Policies

• Capacity-building programmes

• Funding mechanisms

• Regulatory frameworks alignment

Local Policies

• Integrated Land Use and Transport planning

• Enforcement of Building Codes

• Green municipal buildings and transport fleets

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Leveraging all solutions to urban energy sustainability requires strong private and public action both at local

and national levels

Local and national actions can make the low-carbon transition possible

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Foundation of transport-related analysis in the IEA

Projections to 2050+, 29 global regions (including most of G20), all transportation modes except pipelines

Assess urban and non-urban activity, energy use, emissions (GHG, pollutants), infrastructure and materials demand

Shared with OECD Directorates (TAD), ITF

Developed in the framework of a partnership with major industrial and governmental stakeholders, some academic institutions and NGOs (MoMo partnership)

Sustainable Transport Systems analysis: the IEA Mobility Model and ETP

© OECD/IEA, 2016

Thank you

www.iea.org/statistics