brexit, the public and politics - cardiff...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Brexit, the Public and Politics
Prof Roger Awan-Scully
![Page 2: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
UK and Wales voted Leave on June 23rd 2016
![Page 3: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
UK and Wales voted Leave on June 23rd 2016
More than two years on…
![Page 4: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
UK and Wales voted Leave on June 23rd 2016
More than two years on…
What do people think now?
![Page 5: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Previous Research Findings...
• Wales and UK evenly divided on Remain .v. Leave
![Page 6: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Previous Research Findings...
• Wales and UK evenly divided on Remain .v. Leave
• Aggregate and individual-level stability: few changed minds
![Page 7: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Previous Research Findings...
• Wales and UK evenly divided on Remain .v. Leave
• Aggregate and individual-level stability: few changed minds
• Also large Remain / Leave divisions, on…
• Type of Brexit preferred
• Expectations of what Brexit will deliver
• How Political Process should proceed
![Page 8: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
The Latest Welsh Evidence...
• Views on a further referendum
• Remain .v. Leave
• Brexit and party support
![Page 9: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Another Referendum? (Sept 2016 – July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 early May 17 mid May 17 late May 17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18
Yes No DK
![Page 10: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
The Latest Welsh Evidence...
• Views on a further referendum
• Remain .v. Leave
• Brexit and party support
![Page 11: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jul-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 early May 17 Mid May 17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18
Remain Leave DK/WV
![Page 12: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
The Latest Welsh Evidence...
• Views on a further referendum
• Remain .v. Leave
• Brexit and party support
![Page 13: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Change in % Westminster Party Support by EU Referendum Vote(July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Conservative Labour Plaid
Remain Leave
![Page 14: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Latest GB-Wide evidence...
• Views on Remain .v. Leave
• Handling of Brexit by UK Government
• British Social Attitudes Survey: Evidence on attitudes to immigration, Brexit, and relationship to party support
![Page 15: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
![Page 17: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Latest GB-Wide evidence...
• Views on Remain .v. Leave
• Handling of Brexit by UK Government
• British Social Attitudes Survey: Evidence on attitudes to immigration, Brexit, and relationship to party support
![Page 18: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
UK Government Handling Brexit Well or Badly? (YouGov, last week)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Well Badly Don't Know
![Page 19: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
![Page 20: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Latest GB-Wide evidence...
• Views on Remain .v. Leave
• Handling of Brexit by UK Government
• British Social Attitudes Survey: Evidence on attitudes to immigration, Brexit, and relationship to party support
![Page 21: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Impact of Immigration on: British Economy (2011-17, BSA)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2011 2013 2015 2017
Bad Neither Good
![Page 22: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Impact of Immigration on: Britain’s Cultural Life (2011-17, BSA)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2011 2013 2015 2017
Undermined Neither Enriched
![Page 23: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Long-term trend in % support for ‘Leaving the EU’ (2003-17, BSA)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2008 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
![Page 24: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Change in % support for Leave by Immigration Attitudes, Cultural Impact(2015–17, BSA)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Enriched Neither Undermined
![Page 25: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Change in % support for Leave by Social Attitudes (2014–17, BSA)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Liberal Neither Authoritarian
![Page 26: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Change in % support for Leave by Age Group (2014–17, BSA)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
18-34 35-54 55+
![Page 27: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Change in % support for Leave by Education Level (2014–17, BSA)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Degree A-Level GCSE None
![Page 28: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
2015-17 Party Support Change, by Attitudes to EU (BSA)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Conservative Labour Lib-Dem
Leave Stay (reduce powers) Stay (same or more integration)
![Page 29: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Key Points...
• Little change in Remain .v. Leave
• Declining faith in UK Government’s handling of Brexit
• Brexit views increasingly linked to age, education and social attitudes
• Brexit contributing to changed party politics
![Page 30: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
“The country is coming together over Brexit”(Theresa May, April 2017)
OR
“Two nations; between whom there is no intercourse and no sympathy; who are as ignorant of each other's habits, thoughts,
and feelings, as if they were dwellers in different zones, or inhabitants of different planets; who are formed by a different breeding, are fed by a different food, are ordered by different
manners, and are not governed by the same laws . . .”(Benjamin Disraeli)
![Page 31: Brexit, the Public and Politics - Cardiff Universityblogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/wp-content/... · EU Referendum Voting Intention (July 2016–July 2018, Welsh Political Barometer)](https://reader034.vdocument.in/reader034/viewer/2022051909/5ffe636946b76b64fe6ccfe6/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Diolch / Thanks
www.rogerscully.com
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/
@Roger_Scully