business plan - melinhomes.co.uk · if you need the information in this business plan in large...

Business Plan

2015–2020

0

contents

1 Executive Summary 3

2 Vision and Values 4

3 Areas of Operation 5

4 The Board 6

5 The Leadership Group and Melin’s Group Structure 8

6 Melin’s Operational Structure 11

7 Delivering the Vision 12

8 Action Plans 17

9 Financial Information 24

If you need the information in this business plan in large print, Braille, on CD, or explained in your own language, please contact us on 01495 745929.

A Welsh language version of this plan can be found at: www.melinhomes.co.uk/businessplan2015-19/welsh

Printed copies are available on request.2

This plan sets out the direction of travel for Melin Homes over the next five years, whilst recognising the landscape and operating environment in which we work will continue to change. Melin will remain flexible and responsive to this change to ensure that it can support its residents, partners and Welsh Government in delivering a wide range of high quality homes and associated services.

A key issue for our residents is the continuing roll out of welfare reform changes, and we have enhanced our focus upon providing tenancy support and advice, both within the organisation and with other partners. This will evolve further over the life of this plan in line with the services our residents prioritise through the ‘Melin Offer’.

Our relationship with the health and social care sectors continues to develop at pace, and it is very pleasing to be part of the positive collaborative progress being made through the ‘In One Place’ programme. This collaboration is now starting to provide accommodation and enhance care and support services, and at the same time realising significant savings to the public purse.

The delivery of Welsh Government’s arbed 2 energy efficiency programme has entered its third year, with Melin delivering energy improvements in 12 of the 14 South Wales local authority areas. The total investment will equate to some £45m against the £27m originally allocated, with lifetime benefits for the homes improved and most importantly the people that live in them.

Melin has established a new subsidiary called NowYourHome (NYH) which has been set up to deliver a wider range of tenure choices and support Welsh Government and the local authorities’ aims of continuing to provide affordable homes in an environment of reducing public sector resources. We look forward to NYH making a very positive impact over the business plan period and beyond.

The plan also illustrates the way in which Melin has restructured its operational activities to ensure front line services have the resources and delegation they need to remain responsive to resident and wider customer needs.

Melin remains motivated by the challenges ahead, and is determined to continue to make a real difference to the individuals and communities it serves.

1

executive summary

Mark Gardner, Chief Executive

Margaret Spencer, Chair

Mark Gardner, Chief Executive



Mark Gardner,Chief Executive3

2

vision and values

our vision

our values Our work will be underpinned by:

To be an excellent landlord

To be a major provider of new homes

To be a partner of choice

To create opportunities for residents and communities

To be a vibrant place to work

Equality and diversity

Accessibility

Innovation

Partnership

Communities and people, not just bricks and mortar

Being responsive to change and flexible in approach

Being an excellent employer4

3

areas of operation

Melin owns and manages homes across five local authority areas, providing a wide range of housing solutions, and high quality services.

Figure 1: Map showing the five local authority areas Melin owns and manages homes in.

Table 1: Breakdown of homes by local authority area

Local Authority

Rented Homes

Low cost home ownership

Mortgage Rescue

Other** Total

Blaenau Gwent 306 28 4 30 368Monmouthshire 786 108 15 216 1,125Newport 634 9 0 93 736Powys 50 23 0 0 73Torfaen 1,235 215 30 125 1,605Other LA* 0 18 0 0 18Total 3,011 401 49 464 3,925

Figure 2: Housing stock

Figures as of 31st March each year.

2,7202007

2,8042008

2,9652009

3,0202010

3,1792011

3,5112012

3,7322013

3,8612014

3,9252015

Powys

Blaenau Gwent

Torfaen

NewportOther LA*

* shared ownership homes in Cardiff, Caerphilly and Vale of Glamorgan.** includes leasehold, homeless leasing, intermediate rents and

commercial units.

Monmouthshire

5

Margaret Spencer

Chair

Margaret joined the Board of Gwerin Housing in 2004 and was involved in the merger with Eastern Valley when the two housing associations became Melin Homes. She had a successful career in teaching and then social services and her interest in communities and housing grew from there. As well as the building of high quality homes Margaret is particularly interested in initiatives that enable people to develop their own potential and enhance their lives.

Margaret became Chair of Melin Homes’ Board of Management in October 2012.

Chris Edmondson MSc Cert. Ed

Vice Chair

Freelance management researcher, adviser and editor.

Barry Holroyd

Retired Welsh Office Civil Servant

Steve Cieslik BA(Hons), FCIH, FIRPM

Self employed leasehold management specialist.

Tony Crowhurst B.Sc, CDip AF, MRICS

Employed by the Disability Advice Project and other Welsh access groups, specialising in disabilities and access issues.

Richard Essery BSc (Hons), MSc,

Chartered MCIPD, Grad ICSA, JP

Formerly a Human Rersources and learning/ development manager within the private and third sectors. A qualified Company Secretary. Sits on the UK and Welsh Advisory Councils for the charity Diabetes UK.

John Flagg BA(Hons), HMIT

Retired District Inspector of Taxes.

4

the board

Margaret Spencer

Chair

Margaret joined the Board of Gwerin Housing in 2004 and was involved in the merger with Eastern Valley when the two housing associations became Melin Homes. She had a successful career in teaching and then social services and her interest in communities and housing grew from there. As well as the building of high quality homes Margaret is particularly interested in initiatives that enable people to develop their own potential and enhance their lives.

Margaret became Chair of Melin Homes’ Board of Management in October 2012.

Chris Edmondson MSc Cert. Ed

Vice Chair

Freelance management researcher, adviser and editor.

Barry Holroyd

Retired Welsh Office Civil Servant

4

the board

Steve Cieslik BA(Hons), FCIH, FIRPM

Self employed leasehold management specialist.

Tony Crowhurst B.Sc, CDip AF, MRICS

Employed by the Disability Advice Project and other Welsh access groups, specialising in disabilities and access issues.

Richard Essery BSc (Hons), MSc,

Chartered MCIPD, Grad ICSA, JP

Formerly a Human Rersources and learning/ development manager within the private and third sectors. A qualified Company Secretary. Sits on the UK and Welsh Advisory Councils for the charity Diabetes UK.

John Flagg BA(Hons), HMIT

Retired District Inspector of Taxes.

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4

the board

Simon Harrison ACIB, CeFA, CeMAP

20 years as a corporate manager with Barclays leaving to advise on corporate pensions and latterly buying onto a corporate finance business Flexible Commercial Funding Ltd.

Doiran Jones OBE J.P.

Vice Chair of Community Housing Cymru. Vice Chair of Care and Repair Cymru. Member of the All Wales Valuation Tribunal. Retired Local Government Officer (Building Engineer).

Lorraine Morgan RN, RM, RCNT,

PGDipN (Lon), M.Sc (Econ) Wales,

FHEA

Lorraine is a registered nurse and social gerontologist and now works as an independent Consultant on Ageing. She is a visiting professor of gerontological nursing and at present has the Lead for Health and Education on the Welsh Government’s Ministerial Advisory Group on Ageing. She has worked in Housing, Higher Education and NHS.

Lyndon May

Tenant Board Member. Elected to the Board via tenants’ ballot April 2014. Matt Miller MCIH, Dip Surv (P&D)

Housing Management Professional.

Toula Pearson

Tenant Board member. Elected to the Board via tenants’ ballot April 2014.

Dennis Robinson

Retired Solicitor.

4

the board

Simon Harrison ACIB, CeFA, CeMAP

20 years as a corporate manager with Barclays leaving to advise on corporate pensions and latterly buying onto a corporate finance business Flexible Commercial Funding Ltd.

Lyndon May

Tenant Board Member. Elected to the Board via tenants’ ballot April 2014.

Doiran Jones OBE J.P.

Vice Chair of Community Housing Cymru. Vice Chair of Care and Repair Cymru. Member of the All Wales Valuation Tribunal. Retired Local Government Officer (Building Engineer).

Lorraine Morgan RN, RM, RCNT,

PGDipN (Lon), M.Sc (Econ) Wales,

FHEA

Lorraine is a retired registered nurse and social gerontologist and now works as an independent Consultant on Ageing. She is a visiting professor of gerontological nursing and at present has the Lead for Health and Education on the Welsh Government’s Ministerial Advisory Group on Ageing. She has worked in Housing, Higher Education and NHS.

Matt Miller MCIH, Dip Surv (P&D)

Housing Management Professional.

Toula Pearson

Tenant Board member. Elected to the Board via tenants’ ballot April 2014.

Dennis Robinson

Retired Solicitor.

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5

the leadership group

Mark Gardner FCIH

Chief Executive

Mark has worked in the housing sector for 31 years and has been a Housing Association Chief Executive since 1995. Formerly the Director of the Chartered Institute of Housing in Wales and the South West of England. Mark began his housing career in 1983 as a Trainee Housing Manager in local government.

Peter Crockett FMATT, FCCA

Deputy Chief Executive

Peter has held senior posts in the sector since 1995 where he has gained considerable experience in all aspects of strategic finance, including loan funding as well as all other support services. Previously, He spent six years in a private accountancy and audit practice where he trained as a certified accountant. Peter is a company Director of Y Prentis.

Dave Cook MCIH, MBA, MSc

Director of Customer Services

Dave has been Director of Customer Services since 2009. He is responsible for Housing and Asset Management services and the Direct Works Services. Dave joined the housing sector in

1996 after a career in construction management and is a Company Director of NowYourHome.

Peter Davies MCIOB, BSc

Director of Development

Peter has considerable experience of property development in the public, private and housing association sectors. He has worked in a senior capacity for a number of leading housing associations in Wales since 1989. Peter is a Company Director of NowYourHome.

Adrian Huckin FCIH, BA (Hons)

Director of Communities,

Enterprise and Care

Adrian joined Melin Homes in September 2010 having previously worked in senior positions in both the public and housing association sectors for 15 years. His housing career spans a total of 31 years. Adrian is a member of the Chartered Institute of Housing. Adrian is a Company Director of Y Prentis.

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5

Melin’s Group Structure

Melin Homes is the group parent, and is an Industrial and Provident Society that operates to Charitable Rules. Melin provides and manages affordable housing across five local authority areas. Melin Homes is the sole trustee of the Henry Burton Almshouse Society and is the managing agent for the Roger Williams and Queen Victoria Almshouse Society.

NowYourHome (NYH) is a company limited by shares and is non-charitable. Melin Homes is the sole share-holder of NYH. NYH is Melin Homes’ development agent, and builds accommodation of all tenure types including for outright sale. NYH has an Independent Chair – Ian Parfitt (pictured above)

Y Prentis is an independent company and is a company limited by guarantee. The company is jointly owned by Melin Homes and Monmouthshire County Council’s Community Interest Company CMC2. Y Prentis runs the South East Wales shared apprenticeship scheme in partnership with Construction Skills and its industry members.

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6

Melin’s Operational Structure

Chief Executive


Director of Development Director of Customer Services

Director of Communities, Enterprise and Care

1010

6


Chief Executive

Business Consultancy Business Unit

Being Greener Business Unit

Communities and Enterprise Business Unit

Living Well Business Unit

Housing Business Unit

Asset Management Business Unit

Development Business Unit


Director of Communities, Enterprise and Care

Director of Customer Services

Director of Development

1111

Melin has established seven business units that run the day-to-day services to residents and other customers. The Assistant Directors who lead the business units report to Leadership Group as illustrated on the previous page.

The remit of the Business

Consultancy Business Unit is:

• Financial Support

• Technology

• People and Learning

• Corporate Governance Services

• Communications

• Corporate Health and Safety

The remit of the Being Greener

Business Unit is:

• Delivery of the arbed 2 ERDF programme

• Energy consultancy and advice

The remit of the Communities and

Enterprise Business Unit is:

• Getting people into work or training

• New community business research and development

• Community development

• Social Enterprise

• Community and Resident Engagement

• Business Performance and Quality Management

• Digital Inclusion

The remit of the Living Well

Business Unit is:

• Older Persons’ Housing Services including Extra Care

• Care and Repair

• Care and Support

• Supporting People

• In One Place – a collaboration between health, social care and housing

The remit of the Housing

Business Unit is:

• Front line housing management and neighbourhood services

• Income and Inclusion

• Dispute Resolution

• Customer Contact Service

• Homeless Leasing

The remit of the Asset Management

Business Unit is:

• Responsive maintenance services

• Planned maintenance

• Service contract procurement and management

• Melin Direct Works Force (DWF) – gas and plumbing services; electrical services; painting and decorating; and Mel’s Handyperson service

The remit of the Development

Department is:

• New build

• Land banking

• Regeneration

• Low cost home ownership

• Mortgage rescue

• Commercial Premises

• Intermediate Market Renting

• NowYourHome Consultancy Services

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12

This section of the plan outlines the key objectives to be delivered over the life of the plan, and the annual targets and tasks that need to be completed for this to be achieved.

Vision: to be an excellent landlord

Objectives to be achieved over the plan period:

• Melin is an upper quartile or ‘top 10’ performer in all key performance areas.

• Melin is recognised as an excellent service provider as validated by its customers and external standards.

• Customer feedback and satisfaction drives service improvements.

• Housing and Asset Management services are improved and shaped to meet customer requirements.

• Melin’s residents are supported and assisted whilst legislation to reform welfare benefits is implemented.

Annual Action Plan

• Implement the findings of the older persons’ housing feasibility study after Board consideration and approval.

• Build the business intelligence and performance evidence base and use this as a driver for service improvement, and to further enhance equalities and diversity.

• Develop a value for money model to evidence the benefit of investment decisions.

• Extend the influence of the Melin Residents’ Panel in respect of service improvements and service standards.

• Implement the next phase of the Association’s plans for the introduction of universal credit, including enhancing pre-tenancy support to increase tenancy sustainability, and to enhance our role in supporting the well-being of residents.

• Review and revise the asset management strategy.

• Review maintenance standards with the Residents’ Panel to ensure services remain customer focussed.

• Implement the new maintenance contract ensuring the application of the community benefit toolkit.

• Implement the Board approved self-assessment and HARA improvement plans.

• Continue to provide accommodation available to the homeless in partnership with Local Authorities.

7

delivering the vision

13


Objectives to be achieved over the plan period

• To maximise Social Housing Grant (SHG) investment.

• To ensure all SHG allocated is spent.

• Deliver an active and diverse SHG and non SHG programme to meet identified need

• Establish a strategic land bank and forward pipeline programme.

• Effective procurement methods for development activities to be in place and realising efficiencies/ best value.

• New homes built to lifetime homes standards with innovative specification improvements to promote sustainable development and reduce energy costs for residents.

Annual Action Plan

• Update the Melin development strategy evidencing a strong and diverse pipeline programme, based upon a mixture of SHG and non SHG programmes.

• Establish NowYourHome (NYH) as Melin’s development agent.

• Explore new models of new home delivery to increase the supply of affordable accommodation.

7


Vision: to be a major provider of new homes

14



• Melin is a well known and respected organisation with an established reputation.

• External relationships are strong and beneficial to Melin.

• Melin communicates to a wide audience regarding its activities and achievements.

• Risk is effectively managed across the organisation with plans in place for business continuity.

• The resources available to Melin are optimised and used to further its objectives and growth aspirations.

• Financial models are in place to demonstrate viability over a rolling 30 year period.

• Governance systems are strong and kept under review.

Annual Action Plan

• Grow Melin’s participation in the ‘In One Place’ programme collaboration with Health and Local Government colleagues.

• Become the partner of choice for new energy programmes and sustain the Being Greener business unit.

• Incorporate the Powering Up Communities team into the Being Greener business unit.

• Support local government colleagues to create new structures and protect the delivery of key services.

• Keep financial strategies under review to ensure the ongoing availability of resources for existing and new projects, and effective risk management.

• Conduct a review of governance to ensure compliance with the proposed code of governance, and to develop the training and support package for potential and existing Board members.

7


Vision: to be a partner of choice

15



• Melin’s activities and programmes are delivered within budgets allocated.

• Melin utilises technology to the full to improve community communication, its efficiency and business effectiveness.

• Partners want to work with Melin to deliver successful and sustainable projects that regenerate communities.

• Melin innovates to create new initiatives that improve the quality of life for residents and communities.

Annual Action Plan

• Continue to apply the community benefits measurement tool to all procurement contracts and programmes.

• Expand the ‘Melin Works’ programme and brand.

• Establish and sustain the newly merged Care and Repair agency.

7


Vision: to create opportunities for residents and communities

16

This section of the plan outlines the key objectives to be delivered over the life of the plan, and the annual targets and tasks that need to be completed for this to be achieved.7



• Melin has demonstrated its compliance and pro-activity in respect of equalities, disabilities and the Welsh language.

• Melin is recognised as a leading employer within and outside of the housing association movement.

• Melin offers a competitive salary and benefits package which is valued by staff.

• Staff are recognised for their contribution and achievements.

Annual Action Plan

• Ensure a rolling programme of training is in place for equalities and diversity.

• Achieve the Corporate Health Platinum standard.

• Implement recommendations from the ‘Investors in Diversity’ improvement plan.

• Explore the potential for agile working.

• Secure a suitable base to facilitate the expansion of the direct work force (DWF).

Vision: to be a vibrant place to work

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8

action plans

CEChief Executive

DCEDeputy Chief Executive

DDDirector of Development

DCSDirector of Customer Services

DCECDirector of Communities, Enterprise and Care

quarter 1a task to be completed by the end of June 2015

quarter 2a task to be completed by the end of September 2015

quarter 3a task to be completed by the end of December 2015

quarter 4a task to be completed by the end of March 2016

Timescales and priorities are referenced as follows:

Priority levels are defined as follows:

Lead officers are referenced as follows:

priority 1an essential task that must be completed.

priority 2an important task that may be dependent on others outside of the organisation, or not business critical if some slippage occurs.

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8

action plans

Vision: to be an excellent landlord 1

Action Outcome Resources Lead Officer / Department

Timescale and Priority Level

Implement the findings of the older persons’ housing feasibility study after Board consideration and approval

Long term plan agreed by Board and implemented over a multi-year timescale

To be agreed as part of plan

DCEC

Living Well and Asset Management Business Units

Quarter 2

Priority 1

Build the business intelligence and performance evidence base and use this as a driver for service improvement, and to further enhance equalities and diversity

Business intelligence and performance system in place and in use

Staff resources in place

DCEC


Quarter 3

Priority 1

Develop a value for money model to evidence the benefit of investment decisions

Model developed, in place, and evidencing investment impact


DCE

Business Consultancy / Communities and Enterprise Business Units

Quarter 4

Priority 1

Extend the influence of the Melin Residents’ Panel in respect of service improvements and service standards

Residents actively involved in shaping, developing and challenging service standards

Residents’ Panel budget £30,000

DCEC


Quarter 4

Priority 1

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action plans



Implement the next phase of the Association’s plans for the introduction of universal credit, including enhancing pre-tenancy support to increase tenancy sustainability, and to enhance our in supporting the well being of residents.

Increased access to and use of the ‘Melin Offer’ with higher tenancy sustainability rates

Staff resources - £35,000

DCS


Quarter 2

Priority 1

Review and revise the asset management strategy

Revised strategy approved by Board and implementation plan agreed

Staffing resources in place

DCS


Quarter 3

Priority 1

Review maintenance standards with the Residents’ Panel to ensure services remain customer focussed

Standards agreed, in place and monitored


DCS


Quarter 3

Priority 1

Implement the new maintenance contract ensuring the application of the community benefit toolkit

Contract implemented and benefits reported

Staffing resources and budget in place - £1.3m pa

DCS


Quarter 1–4

Priority 1


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8

action plans



Implement the Board approved self-assessment and HARA improvement plans

Improvement plans implemented and difference made measured

Staff resources in place. Costs provided for within budget

DCEC


Quarter 3

Priority 1

Continue to provide accommodation available to the homeless in partnership with Local Authorities

Accommodation available via Melin Leasing. Cost savings to LA monitored and reported

Staff resources in place. Costs provided for and recovered within mini business budget

DCS


Quarter 4

Priority 1


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action plans



Update the Melin development strategy evidencing a strong and diverse pipeline programme, based upon a mixture of SHG and non SHG programmes

Strategy agreed by Board

c£2.3m SHG

c£4m non SHG

DD


Quarter 1–4

Priority 1

Establish NowYourHome (NYH) as Melin’s development agent

Agreements approved and in place and transition underway


DD


Quarter 2

Priority 1

Explore new models of new home delivery to increase the supply of affordable accommodation

Evidence of new development models discussed with and agreed by Board


DD


Quarter 4

Priority 2

Vision: to be a major provider of new homes 1

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8

action plans



Grow Melin’s participation in the ‘In One Place’ programme collaboration with Health and Local Government colleagues

New accommodation and partnership opportunities created and delivered


DCEC


Quarter 4

Priority 1

Become the partner of choice for new energy programmes and sustain the Being Greener business unit

Secure the sustainability of the Being Greener business unit


DCE/ DCS


Quarter 4

Priority 1

Incorporate the Powering Up Communities team into the Being Greener business unit

Staff transferred and evidence of added value to the Being Greener Business Unit and the wider community

Staff resources incorporated within budget

DCE


Quarter 1

Priority 1

Support local government colleagues to create new structures and protect the delivery of key services

Melin engaged in the debate around local government changes and influencing outcomes


CE Quarter 4

Priority 1

Vision: to be a partner of choice 1

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8

action plans



Review financial strategies to ensure the ongoing availability of resources for existing and new projects

Ongoing review of financial strategies monitored by Board and Audit and Risk Committee


DCE


Quarter 4

Priority 1

Conduct a review of governance to ensure compliance with the proposed code of governance, and to develop the training and support package for potential and existing Board members

Governance systems comply with Community Housing Cymru code and new development and training proposals agreed by Board


CE


Quarter 4

Priority 1

Vision: to be a partner of choice 2

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8

action plans



Continue to apply the community benefits measurement tool to all procurement contracts and programmes

Evidence of added value to residents and communities


DCEC

Communities and Enterprise Business Unit and Being Greener Business Unit

Quarter 4

Priority 1

Expand the ‘Melin Works’ programme and brand

Increased number of work and training business opportunities

c£140K staff costs and external grant funding

DCEC


Quarter 3

Priority1

Establish and sustain the newly merged Care and Repair agency

New agency launched with evidence of partner support and maintenance of high service standards

Staff resources provided for

DCEC


Quarter 4

Priority 1

Vision: to create opportunities for residents and communities 1

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8

action plans



Ensure a rolling programme of training is in place for equalities and diversity

To evidence structured training for all staff; Board members; and contractor organisations

Part of staff training budget

DCE


Quarter 4

Priority 1

Achieve the Corporate Health Platinum standard

To evidence Melin’s commitment to the health and well being of its workforce

Within operational budgets

DCE


Quarter 3

Priority 1

Implement recommendations from the ‘Investors in Diversity’ improvement plan

Improvement plan in place and actioned


DCE/ DCEC

Business Consultancy Business Unit and Communities and Enterprise Business Unit

Quarter 4

Priority 1

Explore the potential for agile working

To enhance service delivery and relieve accommodation pressures


DCE


Quarter 4

Priority 1

Secure a suitable base to facilitate the expansion of the direct work force (DWF)

To enhance service delivery and relieve accommodation pressures

To be determined DCS


Quarter 4

Priority 2

Vision: to be a vibrant place to work 1

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financial information

I&E Accounts

2015/16 Budget

2016/17 Forecast

2017/18 Forecast

2018/19 Forecast

2019/20 Forecast

Turnover £’000 £’000 £’000 £’000 £’000

Net rents & service charges 15,502 16,006 17,028 17,867 18,790 Project income 19,992 18,420 19,164 19,946 20,724 Income from other activities 378 215 224 232 241

35,872 34,641 36,415 38,045 39,755

Operating expenses Repairs and maintenance 1,916 2,027 2,125 2,241 2,357 Service costs 627 650 680 710 740 Management costs 7,070 7,389 7,584 7,937 8,322 Project expenditure 19,902 18,150 18,840 19,575 20,338

29,515 28,216 29,229 30,462 31,757

Operating surplus 6,357 6,425 7,186 7,583 7,998

Interest payable 4,122 3,221 3,715 4,060 3,776 Property sales 0 0 0 0 0

Surplus for the year before depreciation 2,235 3,204 3,472 3,523 4,222 Depreciation charge 2,068 1,908 2,110 2,303 2,497 Surplus for the year after depreciation 168 1,296 1,362 1,220 1,726 Transfers (to)/from designated reserves (13) (13) (14) (14) (15)Surplus after transfers to reserves 155 1,283 1,349 1,206 1,711 Interest cover covenant 2.16 2.69 2.65 2.62 3.03

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Balance sheet

2015/16 Budget

2016/17 Forecast

2017/18 Forecast

2018/19 Forecast

2019/20 Forecast

Tangible fixed assets £’000 £’000 £’000 £’000 £’000

Housing properties less depreciation 238,494 250,219 256,641 263,213 265,064 Less: Social housing & other grant (130,948) (132,500) (134,111) (135,784) (136,132)

107,546 117,719 122,530 127,429 128,933 Long term investments 3,578 3,578 3,578 3,578 3,578

Other fixed assets 3,179 2,956 2,892 2,838 2,781

114,303 124,253 129,000 133,845 135,291

Current assets 5,677 5,885 6,111 6,352 6,604

Creditors: Amounts falling due within one year 11,166 11,425 11,708 12,009 12,323

Net current assets (5,489) (5,540) (5,596) (5,658) (5,719)

108,814 118,713 123,404 128,187 129,573 Creditors: Amounts falling due after one year 92,374 100,977 104,306 107,869 107,529

16,440 17,736 19,098 20,318 22,044

ReservesRevenue reserve 16,118 17,401 18,750 19,955 21,666 Designated & restricted reserves 322 335 348 363 378

16,440 17,736 19,098 20,318 22,044 Gearing ratio 59.46% 64.55% 65.47% 66.54% 65.45%

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Cash flow forecast

2015/16 Budget

2016/17 Forecast

2017/18 Forecast

2018/19 Forecast

2019/20 Forecast

Capital £’000 £’000 £’000 £’000 £’000

Grants 1,295 1,552 1,611 1,674 347 Acquistion and construction of properties (26,321) (13,581) (8,553) (8,898) (4,458)Capital outflow (25,026) (12,029) (6,942) (7,224) (4,111)Revenue

IncomeCash received from customers 35,764 34,481 36,236 37,853 39,552 Interest collected 1 0 0 0 0 Sales of properties 0 0 0 0 0

35,765 34,481 36,236 37,853 39,552

ExpenditureEstate costs 22,510 20,852 21,674 22,563 23,490

Salary costs 5,934 6,207 6,527 6,859 7,208 Loan repayments 6,103 5,739 6,198 6,602 6,331

34,547 32,797 34,399 36,024 37,029

Revenue inflow 1,218 1,684 1,837 1,829 2,524 Total outflow (23,808) (10,345) (5,106) (5,395) (1,587)Loan funding 17,403 10,345 5,106 5,396 1,587

CASH BALANCES b/fwd 2,405 (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000)CASH BALANCES c/fwd (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000) (4,000)

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Assumptions for forecast

1 Assured Rental Income set in accordance with Welsh Government (WG) Benchmark regime.

2 Secured Rental Income is assumed to increase in line with current policy until it reaches assured benchmark rents.

3 Voids and bad debts have been assumed at current levels.

4 Salary costs have been increased in line with terms and conditions and staffing plan proposals.

5 Management costs have been fully reviewed with each item being fully costed and accounted for by each team.

6 Interest rates on existing LIBOR facilities have been assumed at 5%, with existing fixed facilities being accounted for at the agreed fixed rate and new facilities assumed at a flat rate of 5%.

7 It has been assumed that the Association sales under RTB, RTA and shared ownership are consistent with previous years.

8 Development growth is based upon indicative programme indications provided by Welsh Government and Local Government partners.

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