c limate c hange and a rmed c onflict : h ot and c old w ars jim lee, american university, 2009...
TRANSCRIPT
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ARMED CONFLICT: HOT AND COLD WARS
Jim Lee, American University, [email protected]
Inventory of Conflict and Environment (ICE)http://www.american.edu/ted/
CLIMATE CHANGE AND BORDER DISPUTES
“Italy and Switzerland are planning to redraw their shared alpine border, as global warming is melting the glaciers that originally guided the line.”
Michael Marshall, “Climate changes
Europe's borders – and the world's”, New Scientist Online, March, 2009.
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT: STRUCTURES AND BEHAVIORSClimate Change Structures * Sustained patterns * Other variables * TriggersConflict Behaviors * Scarcity * Abundance * Sovereignty
IPCC CLIMATE MODEL REGIONS
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS IN 2100
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN 2100
POST-1945 CONFLICT HISTORY (SIPRI)
FUTURE TO 2015 CONFLICTS (DOD)
CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT: NEW AND OLD TENSION BELTS
HOT AND COLD WARSHot Wars
War of ContractionLivelihood conflict
Ancient ConflictDeveloping Countries
Cold WarsWar of Expansion
Militarized conflictNew Conflict
Developed Countries
SIX SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT
The End of the Ice AgeWhere Have the Tropical Forests
Gone?The Great World Desert and
Water WarsProtein and Livelihood Deficits in
AfricaCentral Asia is Heating UpRising Tides Don’t Lift All Ships
Why No Pessimism in Climate Change Forecasts?
Winners and Losers: Is Climate Change Good for Me?
The Climate as War: Environmental Modification Treaty Updates
The Political Dimensions of The Political Dimensions of Climate Change and EquityClimate Change and Equity
COMING RESEARCH ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT
James R. Lee, “Climate Change and Armed Conflict: Hot and Cold Wars”, Routledge Press, August 2009
http://www.routledge.com/books/Climate-Change-and-Armed-Conflict-isbn9780415778695