California Civic Engagement Project

California’s Latino and Asian-American Vote in the June 2016 Primary Election

Facts• Thetotalelectorateexperiencedasignificantincreasein

registered voter turnout (the percentage of registered voterswhovoted)inthe2016primaryelection.

• 2016wasthefirstCaliforniaprimarysincethespecial2008presidentialprimarywhereahigherpercentageofregisteredLatinovotersturnedoutthanAsian-Americanvoters.

• Latinoregisteredvoterturnoutincreasedinthe2016primaryto38.7%,up22percentagepointsfromthe2012presidentialprimary.

• RegisteredvoterturnoutamongAsianAmericanswas37.6%,upfrom23.9%in2012.

Facts• TotaleligibleturnoutinCalifornia(thepercentageofadult

citizenswhovoted)increasedinthe2016primaryto34%,up12percentagepointsfromthe2012presidentialprimary.

• Latinoeligiblevoterturnoutincreasedto24.3%inthe2016primary,upfrom10.1%in2012.

• At19.3%,Asian-Americaneligiblevoterturnoutinthe2016primaryincreased7.6percentagepointsfromthe2012primary.

• VoterturnoutofeligibleLatinoandAsian-Americanvotersisconsistentlylowerthanturnoutofthetotalpopulation.

• In2016,thetotaleligiblevoterpopulation(afigurethatincludesalladultcitizens)inCaliforniawas24million,6.6millionofwhichwereLatinoand3millionofwhichwereAsian-American.

California’svoterturnouthasbeenonthedeclineinrecentprimaryelections.Inthestate’sJuneprimary,wesawareversalofthistrendandanincreaseinturnoutratesforLatinos,AsianAmericans,andthegeneralelectorate.ThisCCEPfactsheethighlightstheincreasedparticipationofLatinosandAsianAmericansinCalifornia’s2016primaryelection.

43.1%

32.9%

55.8%

28.1%

32.9%30.5%

25.0%

46.8%

38.7%37.6%

28.4%

23.1%

47.5%

15.9% 18.6%16.7%

13.3%

32.8%

25.4%

44.8%

23.3%

25.4%23.9%

22.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2004 March 2006 June 2008 Feb* 2008 June 2010 June 2012 June 2014 June 2016 June

California Registered Voter Turnout2004-2016 Primary Elections

Total Turnout Latino AsianData Source: Statewide Database, Political Data, Inc.

*California held a special presidential primary in February 2008. It also held its standard primary in June of that same year for all other statewide elected positions and ballot initiatives.

11.7% 11.7% 11.8%11.3% 10.1%

8.2%

24.2%

22.1%

18.4% 19.3%

34.0%

24.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

2010 2012 2014 2016

California Eligible Voter Turnout in2010-2016 Primary Elections

Asian-American Latino Total Turnout

Data Source: Statewide Database, Political Data, Inc.

Figure 1

Figure 2

Fact Sheet #8 • October 2016

California Civic Engagement Project

Facts• TheLatinoshareofCalifornia’stotalvoteinthe

2016primarywas20.1%,significantlymorethananyotherprimaryinthepastdecade.

• TheAsian-AmericanshareofCalifornia’stotalvoteinthe2016primarydeclinedslightlyfrom2014.

• TheLatinoshareofthe2016primaryvote(20.1%)waslargerthantheLatinoshareofthe2012generalelectionvote(19.4%).

• Despite their higher turnout rates in the 2016 primary,bothLatinoandAsianAmericanscontinuetobeunderrepresentedinCalifornia’selectorate.Latinosmadeup28.5%andAsianAmericans12.5%oftheeligiblevoterpopulationin2016.

11.5%13.0%

16.5%

11.1%11.8% 12.0% 12.3%

5.30% 5.70% 6.17% 6.4% 6.20% 6.47%7.5%

20.1%

7%

Percent of the Total California Vote2004-2016 Primary Elections

Latino Asian-American

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Data Source: Statewide Database, Political Data, Inc.

2004 March 2006 June 2008 Feb* 2008 June 2010 June 2012 June 2014 June 2016 June

*California held a special presidential primary in February 2008. It also held its standard primary in June of that same year for all other statewide elected positions and ballot initiatives.

About the California Civic Engagement Project (CCEP) TheCaliforniaCivicEngagementProjectwasestablishedattheUCDavisCenterforRegionalChangetoinformthepublicdialogueonrepresentativegovernanceinCalifornia.TheCCEPisworkingtoimprovethequalityandquantityofpubliclyavailablecivicengagementdatabycollectingandcuratingdatafromabroadrangeofsourcesforpublicaccessanduse.TheCCEPisengaginginpioneeringresearchtoidentifydisparitiesincivicparticipationacrossplaceandpopulation.ItiswellpositionedtoinformandempowerawiderangeofpolicyandorganizingeffortsinCaliforniatoreducedisparitiesinstateandregionalpatternsofwell-beingandopportunity.Keyaudiencesincludepublicofficials,advocacygroups,politicalresearchersandcommunitiesthemselves.TolearnabouttheCCEP’snationaladvisorycommittee,orreviewtheextensivecoverageoftheCCEP’sworkinthenationalandCaliforniamedia,visitourwebsiteathttp://regionalchange.ucdavis.edu/ccep

Primaryelectionshistoricallyyieldsignificantgroupdisparitiesinturnout.LatinosandAsianAmericanswilllikelycontinuetobeunderrepresentedinCalifornia’sprimaryvotingelectorate.Butthe2016primarydidbringgreaterrepresentationforLatinosthanwehavehistoricallyseen.ItappearsthatthedivisivepoliticalenvironmentoftheprimaryandeffortstowardgreatervoterregistrationandengagementforLatinoshadasignificantimpactonincreasingthisgroup’spoliticalrepresentationinthestate.

Whilethe2016primaryelectionsawhigherturnoutthaninrecentprimaryelections,thisturnoutwasstillmuchlowerthantheturnoutseenin2008.Registeredvoterturnoutinthe2008primarywasthehighestturnoutforaCaliforniaprimaryelectionsince1980.ThishistoricallyhighturnoutrateisoftencitedbyadvocatesasacompellingreasonforpermanentlymovingCalifornia’spresidentialprimarytoearlierthanJuneintheprimaryseason.IntheabsenceofasignificantchangeinCalifornia’sroleinthenation’spresidentialprimaryprocess,thestatewilllikelycontinuetostrugglewithlowparticipationinitsprimaryelections,resultinginreducedparticipationindown-ballotracesaswell.

What Should One Expect in Future California Primary Elections?

Figure 3

Datasource:Statewidedatabase,PoliticalData,Inc.Forstudymethodology,seeCCEPwebsite.

For more information about the California Civic Engagement Project, contact the CCEP Director, Mindy Romero, Ph.D. at msromero@ucdavis.edu.Visit our website at: http://ccep.ucdavis.edu