casualty actuarial spring meeting disney’s contemporary resort lake buena vista, florida june...
TRANSCRIPT
Casualty Actuarial Spring Meeting Disney’s Contemporary Resort Lake Buena Vista, FloridaJune 17-20, 2007 Steve Knutson
Insurance is about predicting the future
Emerging Issues are:
– Phenomena whose nature and effects are unknown
– Beyond the bounds of existing underwriting and risk management protocols
– Beyond existing actuarial calculations
Donald RumsfeldFormer Secretary of Defense
That there are known knowns, there are things we know that we know.
There areknown unknowns.That is to say, there are things that we now know, we don't know.
But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know, we don't know.
And each year, we discover a few more of those unknown unknowns.
Flash
PROCESS
ScreenAnalyze and Resolve
Implement Solutions
Measure Results
Process Improve-ments
Quantify andPrioritize
ScreenAnalyze and Resolve
Implement Solutions
Measure Results
Quantify andPrioritize
ScreenAnalyze and Resolve
Implement Solutions
Measure Results
Quantify andPrioritize
Identify
Clues
Emerging issues arise from:
Emerging issues arise from:
• Technological developments
Emerging issues arise from:
• Technological developments• Socio-economic trends
Emerging issues arise from:
• Technological developments• Socio-economic trends• Novel legal theories
Emerging issues arise from:
• Technological developments• Socio-economic trends• Novel legal theories• Legislation and Regulation
Technological Developments
Cell Mutations
Technological Developments
Diesel
Technological Developments
Acrylamide
Technological Developments
DieselAcrylamide
Technological Developments
Fear of future injury or disease
Technological Developments
Cell Mutations
Technological Developments
Socio-economic trends
“Obesity” Litigation
Socio-economic trends
Addictive foods
Socio-economic trends
Addictive foods
Socio-economic trends
Novel Legal Theory
Alien Tort Statute
Novel Legal Theory
Alien Tort Statute
Novel Legal Theory
Alien Tort Statute
Novel Legal Theory
Public Nuisance
Novel Legal Theory
Public Nuisance
Novel Legal Theory
Public Nuisance
Novel Legal Theory
Public Nuisance
Novel Legal Theory
Legislation
Body burden
Legislation
Legislation
Casualty Actuarial Spring Meeting Disney’s Contemporary Resort Lake Buena Vista, FloridaJune 17-20, 2007 Steve Knutson