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Aarti Industries Ltd

No. of shares (m) 174.2

Mkt cap (Rs crs/$m) 11783/1571.0

Current price (Rs/$) 676/9.0

Price target (Rs/$) 890/11.9

52 W H/L (Rs.) 1071/662

Book Value (Rs/$) 168/2.2

Beta 0.8

Daily volume NSE (avg. monthly) 341080

P/BV (FY20e/21e) 3.9/3.3

EV/EBITDA (FY20e/21e) 13.4/11.9

P/E (FY20e/21e) 21.2/18.2

EPS growth (FY19/20e/21e) 49.5/6.0/16.0

OPM (FY19/20e/21e) 20.5/22.0/23.9

ROE (FY19/20e/21e) 23.8/20.0/19.8

ROCE(FY19/20e/21e) 14.8/13.4/14.8

D/E ratio (FY19/20e/21e) 0.9/0.6/0.4

BSE Code 524208

NSE Code AARTIIND

Bloomberg ARTO IN

Reuters ARTI.NS

Shareholding pattern %

Promoters 48.3

MFs / Banks / FIs 16.7

Foreign Portfolio Investors 7.5 .3 Govt. Holding 0.0

Public & Others 27.6

Total 100.0

As on Dec 31, 2019

Recommendation

BUY

Analyst

KISHAN GUPTA, CFA, FRM

Phone: + 91 (33) 4488 0043

E- mail: [email protected]

Consolidated (Rs crs)

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e

FY21e

Income from operations (gross) 3163.46 3806.06 4705.51 4592.25 4756.16

Other Income 1.96 7.77 2.11 8.92 8.00

EBITDA (other income included) 655.44 706.89 967.20 1019.02 1146.51

Profit after MI 315.12 327.94 490.40 556.92 646.05

EPS(Rs) 19.19 20.17 30.16 31.96 37.08

EPS growth (%) 24.7 5.1 49.5 6.0 16.0

Company Brief

AIL is one of India's leading manufacturers of chemicals and pharmaceutical

intermediates: dyestuff; pigment; agro chemicals; speciality chemicals; active

pharmaceutical ingredient (API); intermediates of API.

Quarterly Highlights

� Impacted by shortage of nitric acid, Aarti Industries reported no small stress

in its speciality chemicals business EBIT margins for it shrunk to 20.6% in

Q3 from a gravity-defying 23.9% in Q2, resulting in flat lining of its EBIT.

Wherefore, NCB production plunged 16.1% to 14900 tons while Aarti could

churn out just 1666 tons of nitro toluene last quarter when compared to 4000

tons in the same quarter a year ago. Volumes barely showed any buoyancy

whatsoever not least due to stress in US automobile and agrochemical

sectors.

� Backed by fall in raw material cost and improved product mix, Aarti

reported no obscure increase in margins for the same jumped by nearly 300

bps to 20.4% on yoy basis. EBIT as a consequence of higher margins grew by

20.2% to Rs 35.97 crs compared to Rs 29.92 crs in the same quarter a year

ago. Yet risk of supply bottlenecks in pharma business due to no smallish

raw material dependence on China which has of late seen production

disruption due to Corona virus scare.

� Despite rise in overall OPMs by 100bps to 20.8% last quarter, operating

profit barely grew for revenues tumbled by 4.5%. Yet fall in finance costs

from Rs 42 crs to Rs 28.71 crs helped modest growth in post tax earnings. In

view of global turbulence brought about by Corona virus, Aarti is trying to

curb import of raw materials and efforts are being made to scout for more

Indian sources to boost raw material security.

� The stock currently trades at 21.2x FY20e EPS of Rs 31.96 and 18.2x FY21e

EPS of Rs 37.08. Nail-biting fall in crude oil prices precipitated earning cut

by just over 6% for next fiscal for revenue growth is now projected to

dramatically fall, though aptly counterbalanced by higher margins and

lower inventories. Yet post tax earning is projected to rise by some 16% on

stable return on capital. Yet risk of disruption in specialty chemicals demand

from US automotive and agrochemical sectors barely escape attention. Given

no inapt valuation post recent stock price correction, we recommend buying

the stock with revised target of Rs 890 (previous target: Rs 871) based on 24x

FY21e earnings.

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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd


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Outlook & Recommendation

Global specialty chemicals update

According to the latest update of ResearchAndMarkets, the global specialty chemicals market is estimated to grow at a CAGR

of 5.2% during 2019-26. Part of the growth in this market has been attributed to continuous R&D which has facilitated

development of products with optimum and advanced features. Rapid industrialization in China and India coupled with rise

in investments in construction and infrastructure development projects in Asia-Pacific has boosted demand for such products.

Yet fluctuations in raw material cost and stricter government regulations could impede growth.

For factors mentioned above, Asia-Pacific is estimated to further see increase in its global specialty chemicals market share

from one-third in 2018. More than 50% of the global specialty chemical market in 2018 was collectively accounted by North

America and Europe with oil field chemicals and food additives as major contributors. Industry reports also opine that

advancements in the major electronics producing countries, such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China, have fostered

consumption of specialty chemicals in Asia -Pacific region.

As per some industry report, the surge in high-performance coatings and increased demand in end-user industries such as

construction, automotive and electronics are factors that would support growth of global specialty chemicals market over the

next few years. In the quench for reducing vehicle weight for increasing fuel efficiency, the global automotive industry is

gradually replacing welding activities of engine parts assembly with adhesives and sealants products.

As most of the specialty chemicals are manufactured using petroleum-based chemicals, fluctuations in crude oil prices can

significantly impact input costs of specialty chemicals, thereby impinging profits of market players. Revenues of producers also

take a hit if crude oil prices sharply fall not least due to fall in finished product prices.

Financials & Valuation

Much of the low double digit growth in Indian specialty chemicals industry over the next few years would manifest not least

due to GOI's increased focus on affordable housing and greater use in end-user industries such as textiles, automotive,

personal care, construction and agriculture. Industry growth will barely waver all thanks to ever-tightening environmental

norms in China and acceleration in Indian R&D outlay. Affordable and ample feedstock availability coupled with low cost

skilled labor would all but stymie throughput at Indian chemical factories. Sufficient efforts are being made by GOI to improve

global competitiveness of Indian chemical industry with an aim to boost chemical industry's GDP share.

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Plans have scarcely wavered to put forth capex of some Rs 1000 crs this fiscal followed by at least half that amount next fiscal.

Yet shutdown precipitated by corona virus scare could delay project commissioning by some months. NCB capacity

expansion from 75000 tons to 108000 tons is not expected to see light of the day before FY21. The R&D facility which is being

mainly set up to boost Aarti's R&D capabilities and development of niche value-added products and process chemistries is

expected to be commissioned in the current fiscal along with a couple of global contract manufacturing projects. Yet not only

delay in commencement of contract manufacturing projects but also ramp up in throughput cannot be ruled out due to global

demand disruption emanating from Corona virus scare.

Dire fall in crude oil prices would cap expansion of revenue growth next fiscal, though operating profit is projected to grow in

low double digits all thanks to entrenched focus on improving product mix of specialty chemicals. Value addition coupled

with increased supplies to regulated markets explains much of the rise in pharmaceutical margins in last few quarters.

Expecting higher API demand from India, Aarti could commission both API and intermediate facilities sometime next fiscal.

Its new pharma capacities are aimed at higher penetration in some key therapies such as antihypertension, cardiovascular,

oncology, corticosteroids, etc. Indian pharma manufacturers have all but avoided evolving CRAMS opportunities from

developed markets as rich countries prepare to increasingly outsource research and clinical trials to developing economies

with an aim to reduce costs and increase product development capacity.

The stock currently trades at 21.2x FY20e EPS of Rs 31.96 and 18.2x FY21e EPS of Rs 37.08. Risks to earnings all but conceal

from revenue concentration (product wise) of its specialty chemicals portfolio, raw material supply disruption from China,

global economic slowdown from Corona virus scare and entrenched moderation in crude oil prices. Yet powering focus on

modest volume initiating value added products would support margins next fiscal - 23.9% Vs 22% in FY20. Capacity

utilization of contract manufacturing projects would get a boost sometime in the second half of next fiscal, partially making

up for some slowdown in domestic demand. Balancing odds, we advise buying the stock with revised target of Rs 890

(previous target: Rs 871) based on 24x FY21e earnings. For more info,. refer to our Aug report.

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Cross Sectional Analysis

Company Equity (Rs crs)

CMP (Rs crs)

Mcap (Rs crs)

Inc. from ops.

(Rs crs) Profit

(Rs crs) OPM (%)

NPM (%)

Int. cov.

ROE (%)

Mcap / IO P/BV P/E

Aarti Inds. 87 676 11783 4401 490 22.9 12.9 6.3 20.0 2.7 4.0 24.0

Atul Ltd 30 3505 10396 4186 637 21.9 15.2 95.7 22.9 2.5 3.4 16.3

Deepak Nitrite 27 319 4353 4179 531 22.9 12.7 7.0 43.1 1.0 3.1 8.2

Sudarshan Chem 14 304 2105 1689 93 15.3 5.5 12.0 16.0 1.2 3.6 22.5

calculations on ttm basis; Aarti income from operations approximated Companies not truly comparable due to product dissimilarity

Helped by modest increase in raw material cost, Sudarshan Chemical managed to report 58.3% growth in operating profit in Q3

with OPM s expanding to 14.8% from 10.1% in the same quarter a year ago, resulting in 122.7% rise in PBT. Yet sales advanced

by a barely robust 8.3% to Rs 423.52 crs, largely buttressed by nearly 12% growth in pigments business revenues. Volumes

barely moderated for specialty pigments portfolio volumes grew by 13% while that of non-specialty portfolio increased 10%.

Exports scarcely dwindled for it accounted for 48% of total revenues in the first nine months of current fiscal from some 47% in

the same period a year ago.

Suppression in revenues of both life science chemicals and performance and other chemicals barely stymied margins for

operating profit of Atul last quarter grew by 16.8% - OPMs expanded to 23.9% from 20.7% in the same quarter a year ago. PBT,

as a result, rose by a surprising 26.4% while post tax earnings advanced by a blistering 44.3%. Both the flagship performance and

other chemicals and life science chemicals businesses showed no little gains in margins for the former reported EBIT margin of

22.1% compared to 18.6% , while the latter disclosed 17.9% VS 16.3% in the same quarter a year ago.

No grim outcome of Deepak Nitrite's performance products segment so far this fiscal - EBIT of Rs 343.24 crs Vs Rs 35.33 crs)

explain the stupendous growth (over five fold) in post tax earnings. Much of this advance could be attributed to higher

realizations of some key products. Despite demand challenges in phenol and acetone market globally and slowdown in

domestic economy, DNL's phenolics business reported its first ever profits last quarter on over 100% capacity utilization. Yet this

slowdown has barely swayed its plan to launch derivatives through forward integration. Much of its business is seemingly

secured from global turbulence from Corona virus (not to count the fluctuations in global phenol and acetone prices) for it

procures most of its raw materials locally.

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Financials

Quarterly Results - Consolidated Figures in Rs crs

Q3FY20 Q3FY19 % chg. 9MFY20 9MFY19 % chg.

Income from operations (gross) 1218.48 1276.03 -4.5 3430.79 3735.07 -8.1

Other Income 0.37 4.03 -90.8 8.42 5.22 61.3

Total Income (gross) 1218.85 1280.06 -4.8 3439.21 3740.29 -8.0

Total Expenditure 964.27 1022.90 -5.7 2672.39 3018.29 -11.5

EBIDTA (other income included) 254.58 257.16 -1.0 766.82 722.00 6.2

Interest 28.71 42.00 -31.6 90.80 140.55 -35.4

Depreciation 47.04 43.67 7.7 135.93 125.98 7.9

PBT 178.83 171.49 4.3 540.09 455.47 18.6

Tax 36.12 31.80 13.6 103.68 83.99 23.4

PAT 142.71 139.69 2.2 436.41 371.48 17.5

Minority Interest 2.87 5.99 -52.1 10.88 13.38 -18.7

PAT post MI 139.84 133.70 4.6 425.53 358.10 18.8

Extraordinary Item - - - - - -

Adjusted Net Profit 139.84 133.70 4.6 425.53 358.10 18.8 EPS (F.V. 5) 8.03 8.22 -2.4 24.42 22.02 10.9

Segment Results Figures in Rs crs

Q3FY20 Q3FY19 % chg. 9MFY20 9MFY19 % chg.

Segment Revenue (Gross)

Speciality Chemicals 1042.33 1022.11 2.0 2881.41 2990.72 -3.7

Pharmaceuticals 176.15 171.10 3.0 549.38 513.02 7.1

Home & Personal Care Chemicals 0.00 82.82 -100.0 0.00 231.33 -100.0

Total 1218.48 1276.03 -4.5 3430.79 3735.07 -8.1

Segment EBIT

Speciality Chemicals 215.10 215.09 0.0 642.08 605.31 6.1

Pharmaceuticals 35.97 29.92 20.2 101.63 85.10 19.4

Home & Personal Care Chemicals 0.00 -0.52 -100.0 0.00 -2.28 -100.0

Total 251.07 244.49 2.7 743.71 688.13 8.1

Interest 28.71 42.00 -31.6 90.80 140.55 -35.4

Other Unallocable Exp. (net of income) 43.53 31.00 40.4 112.82 92.11 22.5

PBT 178.83 171.49 4.3 540.09 455.47 18.6

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Income Statement - Consolidated Figures in Rs crs

FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e

Income from operations (net) 3163.46 3806.06 4705.51 4592.25 4756.16

Growth (%) 5.2 20.3 23.6 -2.4 3.6

Other Income 1.96 7.77 2.11 8.92 8.00

Total Income 3165.42 3813.83 4707.62 4601.17 4764.16

Total Expenditure 2509.98 3106.94 3740.42 3582.15 3617.66

EBITDA (other income included) 655.44 706.89 967.20 1019.02 1146.51

Interest 117.34 131.65 182.54 127.43 108.66

EBDT 538.10 575.24 784.66 891.59 1037.85

Depreciation 122.52 146.23 162.68 186.90 224.21

Tax 88.06 82.88 117.80 133.89 154.59

Net profit 327.52 346.13 504.18 570.80 659.05

Minority interest 11.76 13.17 12.43 13.88 13.00

Net profit after MI 315.76 332.96 491.75 556.92 646.05

Extraordinary item 0.64 5.02 1.35 - -

Adjusted Net Profit 315.12 327.94 490.40 556.92 646.05

EPS (Rs.) 19.19 20.17 30.16 31.96 37.08

Segment Results Figures in Rs crs


Segment Revenue

Speciality Chemicals 2569.29 2985.49 3979.70 3840.72 3929.48

Pharmaceuticals 426.07 556.22 725.81 751.53 826.68

Home & Personal Care Chemicals 168.10 264.35 0.00 0.00 0.00

Total (gross) 3163.46 3806.06 4705.51 4592.25 4756.16

Segment EBIT

Speciality Chemicals 565.75 581.07 819.57 843.54 903.78

Pharmaceuticals 48.13 79.20 112.68 142.06 161.20

Home & Personal Care Chemicals 0.77 2.75 - - -

Sub Total 614.65 663.02 932.25 985.60 1064.98

Interest 117.34 131.65 182.54 127.43 108.66

Other Unallocable Exp. (net of income) 81.72 102.36 127.74 153.47 142.68

PBT 415.58 429.01 621.98 704.69 813.64

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Consolidated Balance Sheet Figures in Rs crs


SOURCES OF FUNDS

Share Capital 41.06 40.65 43.33 87.12 87.12

Reserves 1321.38 1537.76 2587.42 2976.69 3509.48

Total Shareholders Funds 1362.44 1578.41 2630.75 3063.80 3596.60 Minority Interest 63.85 77.02 83.95 97.83 110.83

Long term debt 596.44 908.27 814.80 573.90 362.55

Total Liabilities 2022.73 2563.70 3529.50 3735.53 4069.98

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Gross Block 2654.61 3100.69 3361.80 4211.80 4961.80

Less: Accumulated Depreciation 957.59 1102.79 1215.12 1402.02 1626.23

Net Block 1697.02 1997.90 2146.68 2809.78 3335.57

Capital Work in Progress 269.52 436.23 794.57 900.00 600.00

Investments 46.96 47.22 33.16 33.16 33.16

Current Assets, Loans & Advances

Inventory 571.41 747.30 771.79 810.38 729.34

Sundry Debtors 524.67 654.75 776.04 853.64 810.96

Cash and Bank 28.50 32.10 804.20 17.70 25.51

Other Assets 192.61 250.79 225.08 156.31 161.43

Total CA & LA 1317.19 1684.94 2577.11 1838.03 1727.25

Current liabilities 1292.57 1555.29 1889.75 1587.89 1424.88

Provisions 27.83 31.04 42.42 49.42 59.55

Total Current Liabilities 1320.40 1586.33 1932.17 1637.31 1484.43

Net Current Assets -3.21 98.61 644.94 200.72 242.82

Net Deferred Tax (net of liability) -155.44 -177.41 -193.01 -210.59 -228.24

Other Assets (Net of liabilities) 167.91 161.18 103.19 2.47 86.67

Total Assets 2022.73 2563.70 3529.50 3735.53 4069.98

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Key Financial Ratios


Growth Ratios

Revenue (%) 5.2 20.3 23.6 -2.4 3.6

EBIDTA (%) 13.3 7.0 37.8 5.5 12.5

Net Profit (%) 22.9 4.1 49.5 13.6 16.0

EPS (%) 24.7 5.1 49.5 6.0 16.0

Margins

Operating Profit Margin (%) 20.7 18.4 20.5 22.0 23.9

Gross Profit Margin (%) 17.0 14.9 16.6 19.4 21.8

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.3 9.0 10.7 12.4 13.9

Return

ROCE (%) 15.4 13.3 14.8 13.4 14.8

ROE (%) 25.3 22.5 23.8 20.0 19.8

Valuations

Market Cap / Sales 2.0 2.4 2.9 2.6 2.5

EV/EBIDTA 11.9 16.2 15.8 13.4 11.9

P/E 20.0 28.4 26.2 21.2 18.2

P/BV 4.6 5.9 5.3 3.9 3.3

Other Ratios

Interest Coverage 4.5 4.2 4.4 6.5 8.5

Debt-Equity Ratio 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.4

Current Ratio 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.1

Turnover Ratios

Fixed Asset Turnover 2.1 2.1 2.3 1.9 1.5

Total Asset Turnover 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.2

Debtors Turnover 6.0 6.5 6.6 5.6 5.7

Inventory Turnover 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.5 4.7

Creditors Turnover 8.3 9.5 11.7 13.8 14.4

WC Ratios

Debtor Days 60.5 56.6 55.5 64.8 63.9

Inventory Days 77.6 77.5 74.1 80.6 77.7

Creditor Days 44.0 38.6 31.1 26.5 25.4

Cash Conversion Cycle 94.0 95.4 98.5 118.9 116.1

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Cumulative Financial Data

Figures in Rs crs FY10-12 FY13-15 FY16-18 FY19-21e

Income from operations (gross) 4696 8220 9976 14054

Operating profit 650 1229 1925 3114

EBIT 504 982 1566 2557

PBT 324 631 1200 2139

Profit after MI & associate profit 249 490 899 1693

OPM (%) 13.8 14.9 19.3 22.2

NPM (%) 4.7 5.7 9.4 12.3

Interest coverage 2.8 2.8 4.3 6.1

ROE (%) 17.1 19.9 22.9 22.2

ROCE (%) 11.9 14.4 13.6 15.6

Debt-equity ratio* 1.0 1.1 1.3 0.4

Fixed asset turnover 3.7 3.9 2.2 1.8

Debtors turnover 4.7 6.5 6.1 6.4

Inventory turnover 5.1 5.3 4.1 4.9

Creditors turnover 10.6 10.9 8.9 11.7

Debtors days 78.5 56.3 60.0 57.1

Inventory days 72.0 68.7 88.3 73.9

Creditor days 34.4 33.4 41.2 31.1

Cash conversion cycle 116.1 91.7 107.1 99.9

FY10-12 implies three years ending fiscal 12; *as on terminal year

Combined effect of demerger of Aarti's home and personal care business into Aarti Surfactants and nerve-wracking fall in crude

oil prices recently would preclude spectacular expansion in revenues over FY19-21e period compared to the previous three year

period. Increasing allegiance to value added products, particularly in Aarti's flagship specialty chemicals business, would

anything but constrict margin expansion - OPM projected at 22.2% in FY19-21e period compared to 19.3% - thus enabling

cumulative post tax earnings to grow by a respectable 88.3%.

Yet sluggishness in ramp up of supplies from a couple of global chemical supply contracts next fiscal coupled with dreadful

correction in global crude oil prices would stymie fixed asset turnover to 1.8 in the projected period from 2.2 (see table). Stellar

margin expansion (NPM 12.3% Vs 9.4%) would barely help propel return on equity (ROE: 22.2% Vs 22.9% in FY16-18 period) not

least due to stingy asset utilization. Gradual reduction of financial liabilities in FY20 and next fiscal would support a healthy debt

– equity ratio in FY21 (see table). Cash conversion cycle though would improve all thanks to discernible improvements in both

inventory and debtor days in the ensuing period.

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Financial Summary – US dollar denominated

million $ FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20e FY21e

Equity capital 6.3 6.2 6.3 11.6 11.6

Shareholders funds 208.6 241.2 369.8 400.3 470.2

Total debt 241.2 320.2 347.1 252.6 199.2

Net fixed assets (incl CWIP) 303.3 374.2 425.2 494.6 524.7

Investments 7.2 7.3 4.8 4.4 4.4

Net current assets -2.0 13.7 82.7 18.6 23.1

Total assets 310.4 392.6 499.7 489.9 533.3

Revenues (Gross) 471.5 590.6 673.3 612.2 634.1

EBITDA 97.6 108.7 138.1 135.9 152.9

EBDT 80.1 88.3 112.0 118.9 138.4

PBT 61.8 65.6 88.8 94.0 108.5

Profit after MI 47.0 50.9 70.2 74.2 86.1

EPS($) 0.29 0.31 0.43 0.43 0.49

Book value ($) 1.27 1.48 2.13 2.30 2.70

income statement figures translated at average rates; balance sheet and cash flow at year end rates; projections at current rates(Rs 75.01/$). All dollar denominated figures are adjusted for extraordinary items.

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engaged in market making activity of the company covered by analysts.

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CD Equisearch Private Limited (CIN: U67120WB1995PTC071521)

Registered Office: 37, Shakespeare Sarani, 3rd Floor, Kolkata – 700 017; Phone: +91(33) 4488 0000; Fax: +91(33) 2289 2557 Corporate Office: 10,

Vasawani Mansion, 5th Floor, Dinshaw Wachha Road, Churchgate, Mumbai – 400 020. Phone: +91(22) 2283 0652/0653; Fax: +91(22) 2283, 2276

Website: www.cdequi.com; Email: [email protected]

buy: >20% accumulate: >10% to ≤20% hold: ≥-10% to ≤10% reduce: ≥-20% to <-10% sell: <-20%

Exchange Rates Used- Indicative

Rs/$ FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Average 60.5 61.15 65.46 67.09 64.45 69.89

Year end 60.1 62.59 66.33 64.84 65.04 69.17

All $ values mentioned in the write-up translated at the average rate of the respective quarter/ year as applicable. Projections converted at

current exchange rate. Cumulative dollar figure is the sum of respective yearly dollar value.

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