(cdax, health care) · medios (cdax, health care) analyst michael heider...

Medios

(CDAX, Health Care)

A n a l y s t

Michael Heider

[email protected]

+49 40 309537-280

CO M M E N T Published 04.06.2020 11:00 1

RESEARCH

Buy

EUR 42.00 (EUR 43.00)

Price EUR 38.60

Upside 8.8 %

Value Indicators: EUR Share data: Description:

DCF: 42.14

Bloomberg: ILM1 GR

Reuters: ILM1k.D

ISIN: DE000A1MMCC

Wholesaler of speciality drugs and manufacturer of individualised infusions in Germany

Market Snapshot: EUR m Shareholders: Risk Profile (WRe): 2020e

Market cap: 620.9

No. of shares (m): 16.1

EV: 564.8

Freefloat MC: 406.7

Ø Trad. Vol. (30d): 862.86 th

Freefloat 65.5 %

M. Schneider (Founder) 31.4 %

BMSH GmbH 3.1 %

Beta: 1.2

Price / Book: 4.1 x

Equity Ratio: 77 %

Medios conducts a 10% capital hike and appears to be close to an acquisition

Facts: Medios conducted a 10% capital increase by issuing 1,456,401 new shares making use of authorised capital. The subscription rights

were excluded. The new shares were placed at EUR 36.70 per share, resulting in gross proceeds of EUR 53.4m. The total number of shares

increased to 16,084,991 and the free float increased to some 66%.

Medios’ war chest well filled: Including the proceeds from the capital increase, Medios’ available financial means for acquisitions sum up to

some EUR 120m. In Q1 2020, the company signed a syndicated loan totalling EUR 62.5m (two facilities, maturing 30.12.22, 1.25-1.5% above

EURIBOR). EUR 45m of this loan are fully dedicated to acquisitions. On top of this, Medios has an option to increase the loan by an extra

EUR 25m specifically for acquisitions. Hence, the available funds for acquisitions add up to above EUR 120m.

Acquisition imminent? Medios’ strategy explicitly includes external growth. The company has a disruptive business model and is rapidly

gaining market share. In our view, Medios could strive to strengthen its high-margin compounding business. An option could be to add new

medical indications to its portfolio, however, we would exclude an acquisition in the field of oncology (cytostatics -> chemotherapy) as this

market is overcrowded and highly regulated. A very interesting area could be haemophilia. The new law to increase safety in the medical

system (“Gesetz für mehr Sicherheit in der Arzneimittelversorgung”, GSAV), which came into force on 16 August 2019, ruled among many

other regulations that medication for patients with haemophilia will be distributed via pharmacies as of 15 August 2020. Until then, this

medication was directly delivered by the producer. This is a highly attractive market with a value of above EUR 1bn and the timing seems

perfect to enter the business. We believe that there are laboratories on the market that generate sales of EUR 80-100m. In a very specialised

compounding business, we believe that EBITDA margins of approximately 15% are achievable. In a scenario where Medios pays some 10x

EBITDA, the company could add EUR 80m in sales and EUR 12m in EBITDA by paying EUR 120m.

Value opportunity is highly attractive: Historically, Medios has pursued a very prudent acquisition strategy. At its last acquisition of Kölsche

Blister in March 2020, Medios paid only 0.2x sales for a business which we believe is highly attractive. In the above described acquisition

scenario, where Medios would deploy its full war chest of EUR 120m, we see significant valuation upside. Again, assuming that Medios does

not pay more than 10x EBITDA, whereas its own trading multiple is rather in the area of 20x, the acquisition would be massively value-

accretive. On an EV basis, this would add more than 20% of value or EUR 7 per share on EV basis. Furthermore, we believe that a

strengthening of Medios’ compounding business would make a lot of strategic sense. To our knowledge, Medios is the only player in Germany

that has a clear focus on speciality pharmaceuticals and a synergistic business model, combining the wholesale of finished speciality

pharmaceuticals as well as the wholesale of pharmaceuticals for compounding businesses and has an own compounding business. In any

case, we believe Medios is the only strategic player that has the money on hand and a deep industrial know-how.

We reiterate our Buy recommendation with a slightly lower price target reflecting the dilution from the capital increase.

FY End: 31.12. in EUR m

CAGR (19-22e) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Sales 23.1 % 160.4 253.6 327.8 516.8 678.9 838.8 963.5

Change Sales yoy 78.0 % 58.1 % 29.3 % 57.6 % 31.4 % 23.5 % 14.9 %

Gross profit margin 7.1 % 6.8 % 7.1 % 6.6 % 6.6 % 6.9 % 7.0 %

EBITDA adj. 27.8 % 6.1 8.5 11.7 17.7 22.8 30.7 37.0

Margin 3.8 % 3.4 % 3.6 % 3.4 % 3.4 % 3.7 % 3.8 %

EBIT 34.6 % 5.8 6.8 7.4 14.4 21.3 29.0 35.1

Margin 3.6 % 2.7 % 2.3 % 2.8 % 3.1 % 3.5 % 3.6 %

Net income 34.1 % 3.1 4.1 4.3 9.8 14.1 19.4 23.5

EPS 29.6 % 0.25 0.32 0.54 0.67 0.88 1.21 1.46

EPS adj. 24.3 % 0.25 0.39 0.67 0.76 0.88 1.21 1.46

DPS - 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Dividend Yield n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

FCFPS -0.20 -0.38 -0.36 -0.17 -0.26 0.07 0.50

FCF / Market cap -3.4 % -3.4 % -1.9 % -1.0 % -0.7 % 0.2 % 1.3 %

EV / Sales 0.3 x 0.5 x 0.8 x 0.5 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.6 x

EV / EBITDA 6.7 x 17.6 x 31.4 x 15.3 x 24.7 x 18.4 x 15.0 x

EV / EBIT 7.0 x 18.9 x 36.2 x 17.4 x 26.5 x 19.4 x 15.8 x

P / E 18.6 x 35.6 x 35.6 x 26.7 x 43.9 x 31.9 x 26.4 x

P / E adj. 18.6 x 29.2 x 28.7 x 23.5 x 43.9 x 31.9 x 26.4 x

FCF Potential Yield 9.2 % 2.9 % 1.7 % 4.3 % 2.7 % 3.6 % 4.5 %

Net Debt -17.1 -16.7 -11.6 -9.4 -56.1 -57.2 -65.2

ROCE (NOPAT) 36.0 % 18.2 % 9.9 % 15.1 % 17.4 % 19.2 % 20.2 % Guidance: FY20: sales EUR 610-670m, adj. EBITDA EUR 19.5-22.5m; adj. EBT EUR 17.5-20.5m

Rel. Performance vs CDAX:

1 month: -4.1 %

6 months: 60.5 %

Year to date: 53.0 %

Trailing 12 months: 132.0 %

Company events:

02.07.20 AGM

13.08.20 Q2

12.11.20 Q3

Medios

CO M M E N T Publ ished 04 .06 .2020 2

RESEARCH

Sales development in EUR m

Source: Warburg Research

Sales by regions 2019; in %


EBIT development in EUR m


Company Background

� Medios AG is a solutions provider for speciality pharmaceuticals. In the company's definition, these are drugs with cost per unit of

more than EUR 800.

� Medios operates a wholesale business for speciality pharmaceuticals in Germany (Drug Supply) and laboratories for individualised

prescription-based parenteral infusions based in Berlin (Patient-specific Therapies).

� Medios "Drug Supply" is a licensed pharmaceutical wholesaler in Germany (§52a AMG). It supplies its partner pharmacies and

manufacturers with speciality pharmaceuticals from its centralised warehouse in Berlin.

� "Patient-specific Therapies" is a licensed pharmaceutical producer of individualised prescription-based parenteral infusions (§13

AMG). It operates 2 labs with cleanrooms, supplying >100 practices via 10 pharmacies.

� Medios was created in 2016 but the operations originated in 2008 (compounding) and 2013 (wholesale). Founder Manfred Schneider

and his team are highly experienced in the pharmacy and pharma market.

Competitive Quality

� First-mover in the growing niche market of speciality pharmaceuticals with a proven business concept.

� The EUR 3bn market for patient-specific infusions is undergoing structural change. Today, the market is supplied by more than 300

local pharmacies. A new bill aiming to save costs will drive market consolidation.

� Medios is set to be a major beneficiary of the industrialisation of the sector as it emerged as the winner of a tender process in the test

market Berlin. Hence, its operations are probably the most efficient in Germany.

� In the wholesale business, it adds value for all partners: Pharmacies benefit from better buying conditions and pharma companies

from efficient buying patterns and access to relevant market data.

� Key competitive advantages lie in better buying conditions owing to the pooling of volumes and direct negotiation with pharma

companies on specialty pharmaceuticals, the company's expertise and network of pharmacies.

Market share Medios Pharma in %


Sales by segments 2019; in %


Patient-specific preparations Quantity


Medios


RESEARCH

DCF model

Detailed forecast period Transitional period Term. Value

Figures in EUR m 2020e 2021e 2022e 2023e 2024e 2025e 2026e 2027e 2028e 2029e 2030e 2031e 2032e

Sales 678.9 838.8 963.5 1,105.6 1,202.9 1,307.1 1,416.4 1,534.6 1,662.3 1,800.3 1,949.4 2,110.5 2,284.6

Sales change 31.4 % 23.5 % 14.9 % 14.7 % 8.8 % 8.7 % 8.4 % 8.3 % 8.3 % 8.3 % 8.3 % 8.3 % 8.2 % 3.0 %

EBIT 21.3 29.0 35.1 41.8 46.5 50.4 54.3 58.5 63.2 68.3 73.9 79.8 86.3

EBIT-margin 3.1 % 3.5 % 3.6 % 3.8 % 3.9 % 3.9 % 3.8 % 3.8 % 3.8 % 3.8 % 3.8 % 3.8 % 3.8 %

Tax rate (EBT) 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 %

NOPAT 14.5 19.7 23.9 28.4 31.6 34.3 36.9 39.8 43.0 46.5 50.2 54.3 58.7

Depreciation 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.6 6.1 6.7

in % of Sales 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 %

Changes in provisions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Change in Liquidity from

- Working Capital 17.3 14.9 11.6 13.4 9.1 9.6 10.2 10.9 12.0 12.9 13.9 15.0 16.3

- Capex 2.5 5.0 5.8 6.6 7.2 7.8 8.5 9.2 10.0 10.8 11.7 12.7 13.7

Capex in % of Sales 0.4 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 % 0.6 %

Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Free Cash Flow (WACC Model)

-3.8 1.4 8.4 10.7 18.0 20.0 21.8 23.7 25.5 27.8 30.2 32.8 35.4 54

PV of FCF -3.7 1.3 7.0 8.3 13.1 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.7 520 share of PVs 0.71 % 20.41 % 78.89 %

Model parameter Valuation (m)

Derivation of WACC: Derivation of Beta: Present values 2032e 139

Terminal Value 520

Debt ratio 15.00 % Financial Strength 1.00 Financial liabilities 6

Cost of debt (after tax) 2.8 % Liquidity (share) 2.00 Pension liabilities 0

Market return 7.00 % Cyclicality 1.00 Hybrid capital 0

Risk free rate 1.50 % Transparency 1.00 Minority interest 0

Others 1.00 Market val. of investments 0

Liquidity 62 No. of shares (m) 17.0

WACC 7.30 % Beta 1.20 Equity Value 716 Value per share (EUR) 42.14

Sensitivity Value per Share (EUR)

Terminal Growth Delta EBIT-margin

Beta WACC 2.25 % 2.50 % 2.75 % 3.00 % 3.25 % 3.50 % 3.75 % Beta WACC -1.5 pp -1.0 pp -0.5 pp +0.0 pp +0.5 pp +1.0 pp +1.5 pp

1.41 8.3 % 30.31 31.14 32.05 33.05 34.14 35.35 36.69 1.41 8.3 % 16.85 22.25 27.65 33.05 38.45 43.85 49.24

1.31 7.8 % 33.60 34.66 35.82 37.10 38.52 40.10 41.89 1.31 7.8 % 19.03 25.05 31.07 37.10 43.12 49.14 55.16

1.25 7.6 % 35.50 36.69 38.01 39.47 41.11 42.94 45.02 1.25 7.6 % 20.31 26.70 33.09 39.47 45.86 52.24 58.63

1.20 7.3 % 37.59 38.95 40.46 42.14 44.03 46.16 48.60 1.20 7.3 % 21.76 28.55 35.34 42.14 48.93 55.72 62.52

1.15 7.1 % 39.92 41.47 43.20 45.15 47.35 49.86 52.75 1.15 7.1 % 23.39 30.64 37.89 45.15 52.40 59.65 66.90

1.09 6.8 % 42.51 44.30 46.30 48.56 51.15 54.12 57.59 1.09 6.8 % 25.25 33.02 40.79 48.56 56.34 64.11 71.88

0.99 6.3 % 48.72 51.12 53.86 57.01 60.68 65.01 70.18 0.99 6.3 % 29.87 38.92 47.97 57.01 66.06 75.11 84.16

� Medios targets an operating margin of 4-5% in the medium term

� We fully reflect the dilution from the ESOP in the number of shares (max. 900k shares)

Medios


RESEARCH

Valuation

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e Price / Book 1.8 x 3.2 x 4.0 x 3.2 x 4.1 x 3.7 x 3.2 x

Book value per share ex intangibles 1.81 2.67 2.67 3.46 7.29 8.45 9.89

EV / Sales 0.3 x 0.5 x 0.8 x 0.5 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.6 x

EV / EBITDA 6.7 x 17.6 x 31.4 x 15.3 x 24.7 x 18.4 x 15.0 x

EV / EBIT 7.0 x 18.9 x 36.2 x 17.4 x 26.5 x 19.4 x 15.8 x

EV / EBIT adj.* 7.0 x 18.9 x 36.2 x 17.4 x 26.5 x 19.4 x 15.8 x

P / FCF n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 577.1 x 78.7 x

P / E 18.6 x 35.6 x 35.6 x 26.7 x 43.9 x 31.9 x 26.4 x

P / E adj.* 18.6 x 29.2 x 28.7 x 23.5 x 43.9 x 31.9 x 26.4 x

Dividend Yield n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

FCF Potential Yield (on market EV) 9.2 % 2.9 % 1.7 % 4.3 % 2.7 % 3.6 % 4.5 %

*Adjustments made for: extraord. exp. (stock options (non-cash), start-up); going forward not planned; reflected in valuation through dilution

Company Specific Items

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Market share Medios Drug Supply 1.5 % 2.3 % 3.1 % 4.7 % 5.7 % 6.4 % 6.7 % Patient-specific preparations 48,338 40,000 60,000 90,000 100,000 112,249 121,237

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Divisional Net Sales (EUR m)

Drug Supply 128 211 289 466 611 755 870

Patient-specific Therapies 44 43 39 50 66 80 88

Analytics 0 0 0 0 2 3 5

Total 160 254 328 517 679 839 964

Divisional Sales Shares

Drug Supply 80% 83% 88% 90% 90% 90% 90%

Patient-specific Therapies 27% 17% 12% 10% 10% 10% 9%

Analytics 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

Total 107% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Divisional Sales Growth

Drug Supply 119% 65% 37% 61% 31% 24% 15%

Patient-specific Therapies 23% -1% -10% 30% 31% 21% 10%

Analytics 100% 67%

Total 78% 58% 29% 58% 31% 24% 15%

2015/2016 figures pro forma and pre consolidation

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Adjusted EBITDA* (EUR m)

Drug Supply 4.0 7.6 9.4 11.9 16.9 21.9 26.1

Patient-specific Therapies 2.5 1.9 3.3 6.2 7.5 8.8 9.9

Analytics 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.5 1.0 2.0

Consolidation (other) 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.4 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0

Total 6.5 8.5 11.7 17.7 22.8 30.7 37.0

Divisional adj. EBITDA Margin

Drug Supply 3.1% 3.6% 3.3% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0%

Patient-specific Therapies 5.7% 4.3% 8.5% 12.4% 11.3% 10.9% 11.2%

Analytics 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -33.3% 33.3% 40.0%

Consolidation (other) na na na na na na na

Total 4.0% 3.4% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 3.7% 3.8%

Divisional adj. EBITDA Share

Drug Supply 61.6% 89.3% 80.2% 67.2% 73.8% 71.4% 70.5%

Patient-specific Therapies 38.4% 21.9% 28.0% 35.1% 32.7% 28.6% 26.8%

Analytics 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -2.2% 3.3% 5.4%

Consolidation (other) 0.0% -11.2% -8.2% -2.3% -4.4% -3.3% -2.7%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

*excluding extraordinary items; 2015/2016 figures pro forma and pre consolidation

Medios


RESEARCH

Consolidated profit & loss In EUR m 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Sales 160.4 253.6 327.8 516.8 678.9 838.8 963.5

Change Sales yoy 78.0 % 58.1 % 29.3 % 57.6 % 31.4 % 23.5 % 14.9 % Increase / decrease in inventory 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Own work capitalised 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total Sales 160.4 254.8 328.8 517.4 678.9 838.8 963.5

Material expenses 149.1 237.4 305.6 483.4 634.4 781.3 895.7

Gross profit 11.3 17.4 23.1 34.0 44.6 57.5 67.8

Gross profit margin 7.1 % 6.8 % 7.1 % 6.6 % 6.6 % 6.9 % 7.0 % Personnel expenses 2.9 6.1 9.8 11.0 12.9 15.9 18.3

Other operating income 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.3

Other operating expenses 2.5 4.1 5.1 8.0 10.5 12.9 14.8

Unfrequent items 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EBITDA 6.1 7.3 8.5 16.4 22.8 30.7 37.0

Margin 3.8 % 2.9 % 2.6 % 3.2 % 3.4 % 3.7 % 3.8 %

EBITDA adj. 6.1 8.5 11.7 17.7 22.8 30.7 37.0

Depreciation of fixed assets 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.1

EBITA 5.8 6.9 7.9 15.3 22.0 29.9 35.9

Amortisation of intangible assets 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8

Goodwill amortisation 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EBIT 5.8 6.8 7.4 14.4 21.3 29.0 35.1

Margin 3.6 % 2.7 % 2.3 % 2.8 % 3.1 % 3.5 % 3.6 % Interest income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Interest expenses 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.5

Other financial income (loss) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EBT 5.8 6.7 7.4 14.2 20.8 28.5 34.6

Margin 3.6 % 2.6 % 2.3 % 2.8 % 3.1 % 3.4 % 3.6 % Total taxes 1.9 2.6 3.1 4.5 6.6 9.1 11.1

Net income from continuing operations 3.9 4.1 4.3 9.8 14.1 19.4 23.5

Income from discontinued operations (net of tax) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net income before minorities 3.9 4.1 4.3 9.8 14.1 19.4 23.5

Minority interest 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net income 3.1 4.1 4.3 9.8 14.1 19.4 23.5

Margin 1.9 % 1.6 % 1.3 % 1.9 % 2.1 % 2.3 % 2.4 %

Number of shares, average 12.4 12.7 14.6 14.6 16.1 16.1 16.1

EPS 0.25 0.32 0.54 0.67 0.88 1.21 1.46

EPS adj. 0.25 0.39 0.67 0.76 0.88 1.21 1.46

*Adjustments made for: extraord. exp. (stock options (non-cash), start-up); going forward not planned; reflected in valuation through dilution

Guidance: FY20: sales EUR 610-670m, adj. EBITDA EUR 19.5-22.5m; adj. EBT EUR 17.5-20.5m

Financial Ratios 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Total Operating Costs / Sales 96.2 % 97.6 % 97.7 % 96.9 % 96.6 % 96.3 % 96.2 %

Operating Leverage 1.3 x 0.3 x 0.3 x 1.6 x 1.5 x 1.5 x 1.4 x

EBITDA / Interest expenses 272.7 x 75.6 x 243.6 x 84.4 x 41.6 x 55.8 x 67.4 x

Tax rate (EBT) 32.2 % 38.4 % 41.4 % 31.4 % 32.0 % 32.0 % 32.0 %

Dividend Payout Ratio 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 %

Sales per Employee 2,546,526 2,415,587 2,245,410 3,468,489 4,142,197 4,652,327 5,089,795

Sales, EBITDA in EUR m


Operating Performance in %


Performance per Share


Medios


RESEARCH

Consolidated balance sheet In EUR m 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Assets

Goodwill and other intangible assets 7.3 9.3 31.6 31.3 33.3 31.8 32.0

thereof other intangible assets 0.0 2.0 14.9 14.0 13.3 12.4 11.7

thereof Goodwill 6.8 7.2 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7

Property, plant and equipment 0.6 5.4 5.6 5.6 8.1 11.5 15.2

Financial assets 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Other long-term assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Fixed assets 7.9 14.7 37.4 37.1 41.7 43.6 47.5

Inventories 6.6 10.6 14.0 16.1 24.2 30.0 34.4

Accounts receivable 14.5 17.1 31.1 42.8 61.4 75.8 87.1

Liquid assets 17.1 16.7 11.8 15.6 62.3 63.4 71.5

Other short-term assets 1.7 2.6 4.3 5.0 6.8 8.4 9.6

Current assets 39.9 47.0 61.1 79.4 154.7 177.6 202.6

Total Assets 47.9 61.7 98.4 116.6 196.4 221.2 250.1

Liabilities and shareholders' equity

Subscribed capital 5.3 6.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6

Capital reserve 26.1 37.4 49.9 51.3 89.4 89.4 89.4

Retained earnings 0.7 0.7 6.0 15.8 29.9 49.3 72.8

Other equity components 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 14.5 14.3

Shareholders' equity 32.1 45.7 70.5 81.6 150.6 167.8 191.1

Minority interest 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Total equity 34.1 45.7 70.5 81.6 150.6 167.8 191.1

Provisions 3.4 2.6 2.6 8.1 8.1 9.2 9.6

thereof provisions for pensions and similar obligations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Financial liabilities (total) 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2

thereof short-term financial liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7

Accounts payable 9.9 11.9 18.8 12.9 22.3 27.6 31.7

Other liabilities 0.5 1.6 6.3 7.7 9.1 10.4 11.4

Liabilities 13.8 16.0 27.9 34.9 45.8 53.5 59.0

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 47.9 61.7 98.4 116.6 196.4 221.2 250.1


Efficiency of Capital Employment

Operating Assets Turnover 13.5 x 11.9 x 10.3 x 10.0 x 9.5 x 9.4 x 9.2 x

Capital Employed Turnover 9.4 x 8.7 x 5.6 x 7.2 x 7.2 x 7.6 x 7.7 x

ROA 39.3 % 28.1 % 11.6 % 26.3 % 33.9 % 44.5 % 49.6 %

Return on Capital

ROCE (NOPAT) 36.0 % 18.2 % 9.9 % 15.1 % 17.4 % 19.2 % 20.2 %

ROE 16.5 % 10.6 % 7.4 % 12.8 % 12.2 % 12.2 % 13.1 %

Adj. ROE 16.5 % 12.6 % 10.7 % 14.6 % 12.2 % 12.2 % 13.1 %

Balance sheet quality

Net Debt -17.1 -16.7 -11.6 -9.4 -56.1 -57.2 -65.2

Net Financial Debt -17.1 -16.7 -11.6 -9.4 -56.1 -57.2 -65.2

Net Gearing -50.1 % -36.5 % -16.4 % -11.5 % -37.2 % -34.1 % -34.1 %

Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Book Value / Share 2.4 3.3 4.8 5.6 9.4 10.4 11.9

Book value per share ex intangibles 1.8 2.7 2.7 3.5 7.3 8.5 9.9

ROCE Development


Net debt in EUR m


Book Value per Share in EUR


Medios


RESEARCH

Consolidated cash flow statement In EUR m 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020e 2021e 2022e

Net income -3.5 4.1 4.3 9.8 14.1 19.4 23.5

Depreciation of fixed assets 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.8 1.1

Amortisation of goodwill 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Amortisation of intangible assets 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8

Increase/decrease in long-term provisions 0.3 0.0 -0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other non-cash income and expenses 8.0 0.7 2.6 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cash Flow before NWC change 5.0 5.4 7.3 19.3 15.7 21.0 25.4

Increase / decrease in inventory -3.4 -4.0 -3.4 -2.1 -8.1 -5.8 -4.4

Increase / decrease in accounts receivable -7.9 -2.6 -14.0 -11.7 -18.6 -14.4 -11.3

Increase / decrease in accounts payable 4.7 2.0 6.9 -5.9 9.4 5.3 4.1

Increase / decrease in other working capital positions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Increase / decrease in working capital (total) -6.6 -4.6 -10.4 -19.8 -17.3 -14.9 -11.6

Net cash provided by operating activities [1] -1.6 0.8 -3.1 -0.4 -1.6 6.1 13.8

Investments in intangible assets 0.0 -1.3 -1.3 -1.2 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0

Investments in property, plant and equipment -1.6 -4.4 -0.9 -0.9 -1.9 -4.2 -4.8

Payments for acquisitions 0.0 -1.7 0.0 0.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0

Financial investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Income from asset disposals 0.0 0.3 0.3 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net cash provided by investing activities [2] -0.4 -7.2 -1.8 2.2 -5.5 -5.0 -5.8

Change in financial liabilities 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0

Dividends paid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Purchase of own shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Capital measures 17.7 14.9 -0.4 0.0 53.8 0.0 0.0

Other 0.0 -8.9 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

Net cash provided by financing activities [3] 17.7 6.0 -0.2 -0.7 53.8 0.0 0.0

Change in liquid funds [1]+[2]+[3] 15.8 -0.4 -5.1 1.1 46.7 1.1 8.1

Effects of exchange-rate changes on cash 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cash and cash equivalent at end of period 17.1 16.7 11.6 12.6 62.3 63.4 71.5


Cash Flow

FCF -2.0 -4.9 -5.3 -2.5 -4.2 1.1 8.1

Free Cash Flow / Sales -1.2 % -1.9 % -1.6 % -0.5 % -0.6 % 0.1 % 0.8 %

Free Cash Flow Potential 3.7 3.7 4.5 10.9 15.2 20.5 24.9

Free Cash Flow / Net Profit -62.6 % -118.3 % -122.3 % -26.0 % -29.6 % 5.7 % 34.2 %

Interest Received / Avg. Cash 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.1 % 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %

Interest Paid / Avg. Debt 11.1 % n.a. 34.5 % 6.0 % 8.8 % 8.8 % 8.8 %

Management of Funds

Investment ratio 1.0 % 2.3 % 0.7 % 0.4 % 0.4 % 0.6 % 0.6 %

Maint. Capex / Sales 0.3 % 0.4 % 0.3 % 0.2 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 %

Capex / Dep 505.4 % 1162.1 % 188.6 % 105.4 % 162.1 % 306.9 % 303.7 %

Avg. Working Capital / Sales 4.6 % 5.3 % 6.4 % 7.0 % 8.0 % 8.4 % 8.7 %

Trade Debtors / Trade Creditors 147.0 % 143.8 % 165.2 % 332.3 % 275.3 % 274.6 % 274.8 %

Inventory Turnover 22.6 x 22.4 x 21.9 x 30.1 x 26.2 x 26.0 x 26.0 x

Receivables collection period (days) 33 25 35 30 33 33 33

Payables payment period (days) 24 18 22 10 13 13 13

Cash conversion cycle (Days) 25 23 29 33 34 34 34

CAPEX and Cash Flow in EUR m


Free Cash Flow Generation


Working Capital


Medios


RESEARCH

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SOURCES

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http://www.mmwarburg.de/disclaimer/disclaimer.htm#Valuation

Medios


RESEARCH

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Company Disclosure Link to the historical price targets and rating changes (last 12 months)

Medios 3, 5 http://www.mmwarburg.com/disclaimer/disclaimer_en/DE000A1MMCC8.htm

http://www.mmwarburg.com/disclaimer/disclaimer_en/DE000A1MMCC8.htm

Medios


RESEARCH

INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION

Investment recommendation: expected direction of the share price development of the financial instrument up to the given price target in the opinion of

the analyst who covers this financial instrument.

-B- Buy: The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to rise over the next 12 months.

-H- Hold: The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to remain mostly flat over the next 12

months.

-S- Sell: The price of the analysed financial instrument is expected to fall over the next 12 months.

“-“ Rating suspended: The available information currently does not permit an evaluation of the company.

WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – ANALYSED RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING

Rating Number of stocks % of Universe

Buy 129 64

Hold 58 29

Sell 9 4

Rating suspended 7 3

Total 203 100

WARBURG RESEARCH GMBH – ANALYSED RESEARCH UNIVERSE BY RATING O

O taking into account only those companies which were provided with major investment services in the last twelve months.

Rating Number of stocks % of Universe

Buy 33 80

Hold 5 12

Sell 0 0

Rating suspended 3 7

Total 41 100

PRICE AND RATING HISTORY MEDIOS AS OF 04.06.2020

Markings in the chart show rating changes by Warburg Research

GmbH in the last 12 months. Every marking details the date and

closing price on the day of the rating change.

Medios


RESEARCH

EQUITIES Matthias Rode +49 40 3282-2678 Head of Equities [email protected] RESEARCH Michael Heider +49 40 309537-280 Eggert Kuls +49 40 309537-256 Head of Research [email protected] Engineering [email protected]

Henner Rüschmeier +49 40 309537-270 Andreas Pläsier +49 40 309537-246 Head of Research [email protected] Banks, Financial Services [email protected]

Jan Bauer +49 40 309537-155 Malte Schaumann +49 40 309537-170 Renewables [email protected] Technology [email protected]

Jonas Blum +49 40 309537-240 Patrick Schmidt +49 40 309537-125 Telco, Construction [email protected] Leisure, Internet [email protected]

Christian Cohrs +49 40 309537-175 Oliver Schwarz +49 40 309537-250 Industrials & Transportation [email protected] Chemicals, Agriculture [email protected]

Felix Ellmann +49 40 309537-120 Simon Stippig +49 40 309537-265 Software, IT [email protected] Real Estate [email protected]

Jörg Philipp Frey +49 40 309537-258 Cansu Tatar +49 40 309537-248 Retail, Consumer Goods [email protected] Cap. Goods, Engineering [email protected]

Marius Fuhrberg +49 40 309537-185 Marc-René Tonn +49 40 309537-259 Financial Services [email protected] Automobiles, Car Suppliers [email protected]

Mustafa Hidir +49 40 309537-230 Robert-Jan van der Horst +49 40 309537-290 Automobiles, Car Suppliers [email protected] Technology [email protected]

Ulrich Huwald +49 40 309537-255 Andreas Wolf +49 40 309537-140 Health Care, Pharma [email protected] Software, IT [email protected]

Philipp Kaiser +49 40 309537-260 Real Estate [email protected]

Thilo Kleibauer +49 40 309537-257 Retail, Consumer Goods [email protected]

INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY SALES Marc Niemann +49 40 3282-2660 Tobias Hald +49 40 3282-2695 Head of Equity Sales, Germany [email protected] United Kingdom [email protected]

Klaus Schilling +49 40 3282-2664 Maximilian Martin +49 69 5050-7413 Head of Equity Sales, Germany [email protected] Austria, Poland [email protected]

Tim Beckmann +49 40 3282-2665 Christopher Seedorf +49 69 5050-7414 United Kingdom [email protected] Switzerland [email protected]

Lyubka Bogdanova +49 69 5050-7411 Ireland, Poland, Australia [email protected]

Jens Buchmüller +49 69 5050-7415 Scandinavia, Austria [email protected]

Alexander Eschweiler +49 40 3282-2669 Sophie Hauer +49 69 5050-7417 Germany, Luxembourg [email protected] Roadshow/Marketing [email protected]

Matthias Fritsch +49 40 3282-2696 Juliane Niemann +49 40 3282-2694 United Kingdom [email protected] Roadshow/Marketing [email protected]

SALES TRADING Oliver Merckel +49 40 3282-2634 Marcel Magiera +49 40 3282-2662 Head of Sales Trading [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected] Elyaz Dust +49 40 3282-2702 Bastian Quast +49 40 3282-2701 Sales Trading [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected] Michael Ilgenstein +49 40 3282-2700 Jörg Treptow +49 40 3282-2658 Sales Trading [email protected] Sales Trading [email protected] MACRO RESEARCH Carsten Klude +49 40 3282-2572 Dr. Christian Jasperneite +49 40 3282-2439 Macro Research [email protected] Investment Strategy [email protected] Our research can be found under: Warburg Research http://research.mmwarburg.com/en/index.html Thomson Reuters www.thomsonreuters.com Bloomberg MMWA GO Capital IQ www.capitaliq.com FactSet www.factset.com For access please contact:

Andrea Schaper +49 40 3282-2632 Kerstin Muthig +49 40 3282-2703 Sales Assistance [email protected] Sales Assistance [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]





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