ceen 590 sustainable energy as a social and political challenge 1
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CEEN 590 Sustainable Energy as a
Social and Political Challenge
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Today’s agenda
• Simulation• A path to a clean
energy system• Why challenge is so
formidable (Victor)• Carbon lock-in• science-policy
dilemma
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How to read an academic paper
• What’s the main argument (or puzzle)?• What subsidiary arguments support it?• Are there underlying or explicit value
assumptions?• What evidence is used to support the
argument?• Does the evidence support the argument?• Do other (better?) arguments support the
observed outcomes? 3
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Sample examPart V: Short answer (guideline: 50-75 words). Answer three of the six questions that follow. 10 points each, total 30%. Write legibly. Explicitly incorporate course concepts and readings.
1. According to David Victor, why is global warming such a hard problem to solve?
2. According to Hoberg and Taylor in “Between Consent and Accommodation,” what are the rules for how governments need to consider First Nations concerns in decision-making?
3. Describe Unruh’s concept of “carbon lock-in” and explain the challenges it poses for developing sustainable energy policy.
4. Using the Norman Ruff reading “Executive Dominance” and the lectures, explain why premiers and prime ministers have so much power within the Canadian system of government.
5. Describe the stages of the policy cycle model, with examples from Northern Gateway Pipeline case or another energy policy with which you are familiar.
6. According to Burnstein, What is the impact of public opinion on public policy?
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Feasibility of Decarbonization: California Case Study
Sustainable Energy Policy 5
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Feasibility of Decarbonization
March 19, 2013 Sustainable Energy Policy 6
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Feasible of Decarbonization
Sustainable Energy Policy 7
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Another vision of clean energy system
“We suggest producing all new energy with [water, wind, and solar] by 2030 and replacing the pre-existing energy by 2050. Barriers to the plan are primarily social and political, not technological or economic. The energy cost in a WWS world should be similar to that today”
Jacobson, M.Z., Delucchi, M.A., Providing all global energy with wind, water, and solar power, Part I: Technologies, energy resources, quantities and areas of infrastructure, and materials. Energy Policy (2010),
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Victor’s 3 central political challenges
1. Very deep cuts to GHG emissions are required
– Long residence time of CO2 in atmosphere – given rate of emissions stock is hard to reverse
2. Costs immediate, benefits uncertain and distant in time
– “time inconsistency problem”
3. Global nature of problem creates spatial inconsistency: local costs, global benefits
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Hoberg’s version: Why climate action is so hard politically
Cost of Mitigation Benefits of Mitigation
Relatively certain Highly uncertain
Now Distant in Time
Here Global
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Victor’s 3 myths about policy process
Scientist’s myth: scientific research can determine the safe level of global warming
Environmentalist’s myth: global warming is a typical environmental problem
Engineer’s myth: once cheaper new technologies are available, they will be adopted
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Path Dependence
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Sustainable Energy Policy 14
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Sustainable Energy Policy 15
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Evolution of technical systems
Increasing returns result from • Scale economies• Learning economies• Adaptive expectations• Network economies
Sustainable Energy Policy 16
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Techno-institutional complex
• Not discrete technological artifacts• Complex system of technologies embedded in
a powerful conditioning social context of public and private institutions
• Technological systems – technological lock-in• Institutional lock-in
– Private organizations– governmental
Sustainable Energy Policy 17
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February 2, 2011 Sustainable Energy Policy 18
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Sustainable Energy Policy 19
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Science and Politics
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Core message:
Deficit Model: “You just don’t understand”
• more information will resolve conflicts and produce appropriate policy response
Members of the public filter their responses to science controversies through their value systems
Social science helps explain how this works
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Kahan et al
• Science comprehension thesis: members of the public do not take climate change as seriously as scientists because they don’t understand the science
• Cultural cognition thesis: individuals form perceptions of societal risks that cohere with the values characteristics of groups with which they identify
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Motivated reasoning
• motivated cognition: unconscious tendency to fit processing of information to conclusions that suit some end or goal– biased information search: seeking out (or disproportionally
attending to) evidence that is congruent rather than incongruent with the motivating goal
– biased assimilation: crediting and discrediting evidence selectively in patterns that promote rather than frustrate the goal
– identity-protective cognition: reacting dismissively to information the acceptance of which would experience dissonance or anxiety.
• Daniel Kahan, “What Is Motivated Reasoning and How Does It Work?, Science and Religion Today May 4, 2011.
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The politics of science: Classic view: separation
Science
(facts)
Politics
(values)
Truth
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Politics of Science:Recognition of “Trans-science”
Jasanoff and Wynne 1998
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Politics of ScienceConstructivist View
Politics
Science
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Politics of ScienceConstructivist View (when pressed)
Politics
Science
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Politics and Science
• Policy reflects value judgments, but embodies causal assumptions
• Causal knowledge frequently very uncertain, undermining power of science
• actors adopt the scientific arguments most consistent with their interests
• “science” becomes a contested resource for actors in the policy process, by lending credibility to arguments
• the body of credible science bounds the range of legitimate arguments, but only loosely
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Politics and Science (cont)
• Scientific controversies are frequently more about underlying value conflicts– e.g., conservation vs. development
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A continuum
Science Politics
Regulatory Science
Regulatory Science: Scientific assumptions adopted for the purpose of policy-making
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Regulatory Science Approach
• Some causal assumptions are better than others – science helps
• Some policies are better reflections of society’s distribution of preferences than others -- democratic institutions help
• Avoid: political decisions made by scientists and scientific judgments being made by politicians
• Prefer: transparent justification for decisions– Reveals boundary where scientific advice ends and value
judgments begins– Promotes accountability
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Next week
• Formal governance
• Discussion questions on Friday
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