Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Seasonal Forecast for 2010 Central Pacific Hurricane Season and Recap of 2009

Season

Jim WeymanDirector, Central Pacific Hurricane CenterPhone: Office: 793-5272 Office: 271-6238

May 19, 2010

Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season

• Season: June 1 to November 30• Central Pacific Average per Year

– 1.5 Hurricanes– 1.3 Tropical Storms– 1.6 Tropical Depressions– 4.4 Tropical Cyclones

• 1971 to 2009: 170 Tropical cyclones– 37% Hurricanes– 29% Tropical Storms– 34% Tropical Depressions

Hurricane Climatology for Central Pacific (1971 through 2009)

Type H TS TD TotalTotals 63 49 58 170Avg/YR 1.5 1.3 1.6 4.4Percent 37 29 34

Total by Month of Year (1971 – 2009)J F M A M J J A S O N D Total2 0 1 1 0 1 42 66 36 17 3 1 1701 0 <1 <1 0 <1 25 39 21 10 2 <1

Hurricane: Cat 1 -21 Cat 2 – 9 Cat 3 – 12 Cat 4 -8 Cat 5 - 4

Central Pacific 2009 Hurricane Season

• Seven tropical cyclones occurred – Greater than the long-term average of 4 to 5– Three hurricanes, one of them major– Three tropical storms– One tropical depression– Three formed in basin, four moved in from east– Six of the cyclones occurred in very late July and in

August, with the other in October• No fatalities or significant damages

2009 Hurricane Season Summary

Tropical Storm LanaHurricane FeliciaTropical Storm MakaHurricane GuillermoTropical Storm HildaTropical Depression Two-CHurricane Neki

July 31 – August 4August 8 – August 11August 10 – August 12August 16 – August 19August 23 – August 28August 29 – August 30October 18 – October 26

2009 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm MakaTropical Storm Maka10-12 August10-12 August

Tropical Depression Two-CTropical Depression Two-C28-29 August28-29 August

Major Hurricane NekiMajor Hurricane Neki18-26 October18-26 October

Tropical Storm LanaTropical Storm Lana30 July – 3 August30 July – 3 August

Central PacificCentral PacificWest PacificWest Pacific East PacificEast Pacific

Hurricane GuillermoHurricane Guillermo16-19 August16-19 August

Tropical Storm HildaTropical Storm Hilda23-27 August23-27 August Hurricane FeliciaHurricane Felicia

8-11 August8-11 August

Felicia Highlights• Extensive public and media attention• Air Force C-130s and NOAA G-IV tasked• Tropical storm watches issued for portions of Hawaii,

but no tropical storm warnings• Wind speed/intensity probabilities used• Remnants produced heavy rains and some flooding in

Hawaii– 3 to 6 inches widespread across several islands– Maximum rainfall near 14 inches on Kauai and Oahu– Flash floods on Oahu

Hurricane Neki Highlights

• Peak intensity 105 knots (category 3)• Only major hurricane in in 2009• Hurricane watch for Johnston Island• Hurricane watches and warnings for portions of

Northwestern Hawaiian Islands– Evacuations via NOAA ship and Coast Guard C-130– Impacted the area as a strong tropical storm

• No impacts in main Hawaiian Islands

El Nino Update

• A Rapid Transition from El Nino to Neutral During April and May 2010

• Some Models Forecast Weak La Niña Conditions by Summer (Pacific Oceans waters near the equator colder than normal)

• Some Models forecast Continued Neutral Conditions (Water temperature near normal)

2010 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook

Based on two climate factors• Ongoing low-activity era in Central Pacific

– Partly reflects fewer Eastern Pacific hurricanes moving into the region.

• Expectation of either ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions in equatorial Pacific– Neither of which favors tropical cyclone activity in Central

Pacific. • Factors have historically produced below normal

seasons

2010 Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook

• 70% chance of a below normal season– Forecast 2-3 tropical cyclone systems

• 25% chance of a near normal season– Forecast 4-5 tropical cyclone systems

• 5% chance of an above normal season– Forecast of 6 or more systems