central north pacific 2006 tropical cyclone season jim weyman director/meteorologist in charge...
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CENTRAL NORTH PACIFICCENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE 2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE
SEASONSEASON
Jim WeymanJim WeymanDirector/Meteorologist in ChargeDirector/Meteorologist in ChargeCentral Pacific Hurricane Center/WFO HonoluluCentral Pacific Hurricane Center/WFO Honolulu
Central North PacificCentral North Pacific2006 Season Summary2006 Season Summary
• 5 Tropical Cyclones5 Tropical Cyclones• Hurricane Daniel (24-26 July) moved in from the Hurricane Daniel (24-26 July) moved in from the
Eastern PacificEastern Pacific– Remnants brought gusty winds and enhanced Remnants brought gusty winds and enhanced
showers to Maui and the Big Islandshowers to Maui and the Big Island• Hurricane Ioke (20-27 August)Hurricane Ioke (20-27 August)
– First named storm to form in the Central Pacific First named storm to form in the Central Pacific since 2003since 2003
– Rapid IntensificationRapid Intensification– Record-breaking intensity and longevityRecord-breaking intensity and longevity
Central North PacificCentral North Pacific2006 Season Summary2006 Season Summary
• Three Tropical Depressions formed in the Central Three Tropical Depressions formed in the Central PacificPacific
– TD Two-C – Lifetime of 48 hours (19-20 Sept)TD Two-C – Lifetime of 48 hours (19-20 Sept)
– TD Three-C – Lifetime of 12 hours (26-27 Sept)TD Three-C – Lifetime of 12 hours (26-27 Sept)
– TD Four-C – Lifetime of 18 hours (13-14 Oct)TD Four-C – Lifetime of 18 hours (13-14 Oct)
Remnants fueled heavy rain and flooding Remnants fueled heavy rain and flooding over the Big Island 3 days laterover the Big Island 3 days later
Hurricane IokeHurricane Ioke
• Rapid Intensification to Hurricane in 24 hoursRapid Intensification to Hurricane in 24 hours
• 55thth Category 5 storm recorded in the Central Category 5 storm recorded in the Central PacificPacific
• Category 4 or higher intensity for 9 daysCategory 4 or higher intensity for 9 days
• Estimated 920 mb lowest pressure on record for Estimated 920 mb lowest pressure on record for Central Pacific stormsCentral Pacific storms
• Significant impact to Johnston and Midway Significant impact to Johnston and Midway IslandsIslands
2006 Season Highlights2006 Season Highlights
• CPHC activated for 13 daysCPHC activated for 13 days
• Track Forecast Errors Track Forecast Errors – 48 hr error of 89.6 nm well below 111nm GPRA 48 hr error of 89.6 nm well below 111nm GPRA
Goal Goal
– 2006 5 year running mean at 48, 72, 96, and 120 2006 5 year running mean at 48, 72, 96, and 120 hr was 16, 27, 20, 10% respectively below 2004hr was 16, 27, 20, 10% respectively below 2004
• Track and error cone graphicsTrack and error cone graphics– Also producing graphics for WFO Guam Also producing graphics for WFO Guam
webpage for Western Pacific tropical systemswebpage for Western Pacific tropical systems
CPHC Official Forecast Verification - 2006
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast Period (hr)
Trac
k Er
ror (
nm)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
Inte
nsity
Erro
r (kt
)
track
intensity
CPHC Forecast Track Verification 2006 vs Long-Term
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast Period (hr)
Trac
k Er
ror (
nm) 2006
1996-2005
CPHC 2006 Tropical Cyclone Track Error Statistics
7.4
32.651.5
73.089.6
111.9
157.3
227.5
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
500.0
0 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
Forecast Hour
Posi
tion
Erro
r (nm
)
OFCL
GFDL
AVNO
GUNS
GUNA
CONU
UKMET
NOGAPS
Versus “Best” Models
CPHC 2006 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Error Statistics
0.8
9.7
17.5
22.8 23.5 25.0
34.3
43.4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
Forecast Hour
Inte
nsity
Erro
r (kt
)
OFCL
GFDL
AVNO
SHF5
SHIP
ICON
NOGAPS
Intensity Guidance Skill - 2006
-90
-80
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast Period (hr)
Skill
Rel
ativ
e to
SHF
R5 (%
)
CPHC
GFDL
AVNO
SHIP
ICON
NOGAPS
CPHC Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Five Year Running Mean Error
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Year
Pos
ition
Err
or (N
M)
12 hour forecast
24 hour forecast
36 hour forecast
48 hour forecast
72 hour forecast
96 hour forecast
120 hourforecastLinear (72 hourforecast)Linear (48 hourforecast)Linear (24 hourforecast)
Other Items of InterestOther Items of Interest
• Re-besting Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Updating Re-besting Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Updating Climatology for Central PacificClimatology for Central Pacific
– Working with Dr. Pao-Shin ChuWorking with Dr. Pao-Shin Chu
– Publication PendingPublication Pending
• NCDC Data Rescue Project for CPHC archivesNCDC Data Rescue Project for CPHC archives
• List-Serv notification for 2007 seasonList-Serv notification for 2007 season
• Requirement for Storm Surge Modeling for Requirement for Storm Surge Modeling for Hawaii – Working with U of Hawaii for fundingHawaii – Working with U of Hawaii for funding
Good News – Bad NewsGood News – Bad News
• Deputy Director CPHC/Director of Deputy Director CPHC/Director of Operations Weather Forecast Office Operations Weather Forecast Office (WFO)(WFO)
Andy Nash – Selected for Meteorologist Andy Nash – Selected for Meteorologist in Charge (MIC), Burlington VTin Charge (MIC), Burlington VT
• Warning Coordination Meteorologist of Warning Coordination Meteorologist of CPHC/WFO Honolulu Nezette Rydell – CPHC/WFO Honolulu Nezette Rydell – Selected as MIC WFO Brownsville TXSelected as MIC WFO Brownsville TX
• Great opportunities for motivated peopleGreat opportunities for motivated people
Questions ?Questions ?