Challenges and Policy Issues

of Sustainable Development of Energy Sector in

Iran

Aug. 2012

Sharif Energy Research Inst. – SERI

Sharif University of Technology

National Iranian Oil Company

Table of Content

1. Introduction

2. Problems of Energy Sector in Iran

3. Energy Management & Diversification

4. Policy Issue

5. Challenges of Energy Studies

Introduction

1. What are major energy issues in Iran?

2. What are challenges of Sustainable

development of energy sector?

3. What are the ways for improving the role of

scientific community in the process of

decision making?

4. How could the research contribute to

improved decision making?

1. Energy Balances

2. Dependency of Economy on Oil Revenue

3. Energy-Environment Interaction

4. Energy –Development Interaction

5. Energy Resources

Energy Problems

Energy Problems

Year 2010

1. Final Energy 1215 MBOE

2. Primary Energy 1766 MBOE

3. Oil & Gas Subsidy 60 Billion US$

Energy Problems

Energy Balance

1. Share of Oil in Export > 80%

2. Share of Oil in Public Budget > 50%

3. Share of Oil in GDP 11%

Energy Problems

Economic Dependence

1. Local Environment

Water - Oil & Gas Upstream

Soil - Degradation & Salt Content

Air - Air Pollution in Large Cities

2. Global

CO2 & GWP > 1400 Mt/a

GWP per Capita 21 t/Cap/a

Energy Problems

Energy - Environment

1. Energy Requirement

2. Energy Subsidization

Policy of Removal of Subsidization

Increased Rate of Foreign Exchange

Persistence of Energy Subsidization

3. Impact of Changes in World Energy Market

4. Import of Capital & Consumer Goods

Energy Problems

Energy - Development

Energy Problems Potentials of Economic Development

Conceptual Model of Energy Balance

Extraction

Crude Oil

Other Renewable

Coal

Nat. Gas

Solar

Nuclear

Hydro

Biomass

D

Coal Processing

Gas Processing

Hydro Power

Nuclear Fuel Fab.

Biomass Processing

Thermal Power Plant

Renewable Power Plant

Pet. Prod.

Biomass

Coal

District Heating1

Electricity

Natural Gas

Storage

Injection

Storage

Nuclear Power Plant

Solar Conversion

Transmission

Pet. Prod. Transport

Import(Prim.)

Export

R C Oil Refinery

Primary

Transport Processing

Conversion

Distribution

Transport

End User

Useful Energy

Import(Proc.)

Import(Elec.)

Feed

Losses

Hydrogen Production

FC Power Plant

Network Feed

Hydrogen

Urban Household

Rural Household

Industry

Transport

Agriculture

Commercial

Nat. Gas Transport

H2 Transport

P

Energy Problems Potentials of Economic Development

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 2010 2025 2040

Mill

ion

Ria

ls/C

apit

a/a

Year

Historical

BAU

LOW

BASE

HIGH

Per Capital GDP

Energy Problems Potentials of Economic Development

Per Capita Useful Energy Requirement

0

50

100

150

200

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

GJ/

Pe

rso

n

Year

Trend of Useful Energy Demand per Capita

BAU

LOW

BASE

HIGH

Energy Problems Potentials of Economic Development

Useful Energy Intensity

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

kJ/R

ials

13

76

Year

Trend of Useful Energy Intensity

BAU

LOW

BASE

HIGH

Energy Resource

1. Oil & Gas

Reserves: 361.7 Billions BOE

Production: 3.05 Billions BOE/Year

R/P Ratio > 100 Years

2. Solar 300 GW

Potentials 290 Millions BOE/a

3. Hydro Power 16 GW

4. Wind 2 GW

Energy Management

1. Goals & Development Plans

2. Potentials of Energy Management

3. Diversification of Primary Energy

4. Environmental Protection

5. Institutions for Energy Services

Policy Issues

1. Reducing Dependency on Oil Revenue

2. Energy Market & Deregulation

3. Management of Resources

4. Development of New Energy Technologies

5. Improving Decision Making

6. Role of Sustainable Energy Zones

Challenges

Energy Studies

1. Analysis of Issues with wide Impacts

Complex

Interdisciplinary

Short & Long Term

Economical, Social & Political

2. Supporting Decision Making

3. Developing Potentials for Research

Challenges

Energy Research

1. Database for Decision Making

Complications

Impact

Identification of Measures

Sustainable Development

2. Required Activities

Identification and Formulation

Validation through Case Studies

Location: Persian Gulf

Area: 18 km2

Production of Oil: 100000 bl/d

Production of Gas: 3000000 m3/d

Production Start Date: 1977

Energy Potentials

Oil & Gas

Solar

Wind

Wave

SIRRI Island

Case Study

Camp

Site

Energy-Environment

SIRRI

Methodology Energy Management System

ISO 50001

PDCA Cycle

Energy Analysis

Reference Energy System

Environmental Flow Diagram

Energy Balances

Policy Formulation

Problem Tree

Goal Tree

Model of

Energy-Environment

Integrated System of Modules

Energy-Environment Optimization

Model Concept

• Reference Energy System

• Environmental Flow Diagram

Objective

Economically Feasible

Environmentally Compatible

Socially Acceptable

ESM

Phd Research Work

Mr. Rezaeian

Critical Review of Literature

• Policy Issues – Integrated Energy-Environment System

• Methodologies and Analytical Tools

Further Development of ESM

Objective Function

Life Cycle Analysis

Social-Economical-Security-Environmental Constraints

Application of ESM at SIRRI