chapter 5 the human population copyright © 2008 pearson prentice hall, inc. environmental science...
TRANSCRIPT
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Chapter 5The Human Population
Copyright © 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall, Inc.
EnvironmentalScienceTenth Edition
Richard T. Wright
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Human Population Growth and the Consequences
Human population expansion and its causeDifferent worldsConsequences of population growth and affluenceDynamics of population growth
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Human Population Expansion and Its Cause
Reasons for the patterns of growth Biotic potential exceeds environmental resistance: birth
rates exceed death rates
There are 6.6 billion people on Earth http://math.berkeley.edu/~galen/popclk.html
If each one stood up, pronounced their name and sat down It would take 600 years to complete roll call By 2025 it will take 1,000 years to complete this
exercise
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World Population Over the Centuries
9,000 human beings added to the planet every hour
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Modeling Population Growth
Human Population Growth and Regulation
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Modeling Population Growth
Human Population Growth and Regulation
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Modeling Population Growth
Human Population Growth and Regulation
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Modeling Population Growth
Human Population Growth and Regulation
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Modeling Population Growth
Human Population Growth and Regulation
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Reasons for the Human Population Explosion
Causes of disease recognized
Improvements in nutrition
Discovery of antibiotics
Improvements in medicine
Increase in number of women who actually reach child-bearing age
Short doubling times in some countries
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Changing Human Survivorship Curves: Went from B to A
% S
urvi
val
AgeBirth Death
A
B
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World Population Growth and Absolute Growth
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Key terms
Infant mortality rate Overall health
Life Expectancy Quality of life
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Population Projections Based on Different Fertility Assumptions
Maintain fertility rate of 2.6 children/woman
Gradual decline in fertility in developing countries.2.02 children/woman
½ child lower than medium projection
½ child higher than medium projection
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Different Worlds
Rich nations, poor nations
Population growth in rich and poor nations
Different populations, different problems
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Major Economic Divisions of the World
Gross national income/capita
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Economic Categories Based on Per Capita Gross National Income (see Fig. 5-4)
High-income, highly developed, industrialized countries United States, Japan, Canada Average GNI per capita = $26,710
Middle-income, moderately developed countries Latin America, South Africa, China Average GNI per capita = $1,850
Low-income, developing countries Western and central Africa, India, central Asia Average GNI per capita = $430
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Disparities
Developed countries 15% of the world’s population Control 80% of the world’s wealth
Low-income developing countries 37% of the world’s population Control 3.0% of the world’s gross national
income
Difference in per capita income: 63 to 1!
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Different Populations, Different Problems
IPAT Formula: calculates human pressure on the environment (I = P x A x T) I = environmental impact P = population A = affluence and consumptive patterns T = level of technology in the society
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Different Populations, Different Problems
Environmental impact of developing countries due to “P.”Environmental impact of developed countries due to “A” and “T.” Both have some measure of “I” for different
reasons. Average American places at least 20 times the
demand on Earth’s resources compared to a person in Bangladesh.
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Different Populations, Different Problems
How does stewardship (S) affect the IPAT formula? S = wildlife conservation, pollution control,
energy conservation, and recyclingI = P x A x T
S
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Population Increase in Developed and Developing Countries
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Population Data for Selected Countries (Table 5-2)
Country Total Fertility Rate
Doubling Times (Years)
World 2.7 58
Developing Countries
2.9 47
Developed Countries
1.6 700
United States 2.0 117
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Different Populations, Different Problems
Human pressure on the environment caused by three factors Population size Affluence Technology
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Global Conditions for a Sustainable Population
Lower fertility rates (stabilize population)
Consumption must decrease
Protect the environment (stewardly action must increase
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Developing or Developed Nations?
1. High fertility rates2. High consumptive
lifestyles: use 80% of world’s wealth
3. Intense poverty4. Eat high on the food
chain5. Long doubling times6. High environmental
degradation7. Twenty percent of the
world’s population
1. Developing2. Developed3. Developing4. Developed5. Developed6. Developed7. Developed
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Basic Human Needs
Drinkable water
Edible food
Safe housing
Health care
Education
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The Developing Countries
Reform the system of land ownership
Intensify cultivation of existing land to increase production per unit area
Open new land to farm
Move to cities and seek employment
Engage in illicit activities for income
Move to other countries
How do these “solutions” aggravate the problems?
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Growing Cities
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Consequences of Exploding Populations in the Developing World
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Consequences of Exploding Populations
More PopulationCauses
MORE
LESS
deforestationresource depletionloss of agricultural landbiodiversitydiseasepest resistancepopulation migrationirrigationwetlands
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Affluence in the United States
Consume the largest share of 11 or 20 major commodities
Eat more than three times the global average in meat
Lead the world in paper consumption
Environment improves with increasing affluence
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Affluence in the United States
Enables wealthy to clean up immediate environment by transferring waste to more distant locations
Affluent isolate themselves and unaware of the environmental stresses caused by their consumptive lifestyles
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Dynamics of Population Growth
Population profiles
Future populations
Population momentum
The demographic transition
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Population Profile United States
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Population Profile United States
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Population Profile United States
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Population Profile of Italy
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Population Profile Italy
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Population Projections United States
Increased fertility rateof 2.0 and current migration
Fertility rate of 1.8
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Population Profile Developing Country
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Population Profile Developing Country
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Population Momentum
Effect of current age structures on future population growth
Determined by percent of population in younger versus older age cohorts
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Population Momentum
It will take countries with a large base of younger population a long time to achieve stability.
Countries like Iraq will continue to grow for 50-60 years even after the total fertility rate is reduced to replacement level.
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Calculating Fertility Rates and Doubling Times
(CBR - CDR)/10 = Rate of Increase or decrease in population per 1000 per year
70/ Rate of Increase = Doubling Time
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By the Year 2000
65 out of 117 countries will not be able to feed their own peopleOne billion people will be living in cities that cannot support their inhabitants400 million more women will be in need of child spacing services
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By the Year 2000 (continued)
600 million new jobs will need to be created for new entrants into the workforce
We will need twice as much fresh water
300 million additional children will need teachers, books, and classrooms