characterizing a sustainability transition:

Characterizing a Sustainability Transition:

The International Consensus

Thomas M. Parris Robert W. [email protected] [email protected]

Final paper will be available at http://sust.harvard.edu

Acknowledgements

Work supported by the Research and Assessment Systems for Sustainability Program (http://sust.harvard.edu/).

National Science Foundation (award BCS 0004236) with contributions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Office of Global Programs.

Motivation• Defines a “transition to sustainability”

when a stabilizing world population meets its needs, reduces hunger and poverty, while maintaining the planet's life support systems and living resources.

• Notes that “there is no consensus on the appropriateness of the current set of indicators or the scientific basis for choosing them. Their effectiveness is limited by the lack of agreement on what to develop, what to sustain, and for how long.”

Graphic of cover to National Research Council (NRC). 1999. Our Common Journey: A Transition Toward Sustainability. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.

Goal/MethodGoal Produce a theoretically grounded, empirically validated, and

politically accepted definition of a sustainability transition.

Method Systematically review the state of international consensus as

represented by formal agreements or plans of action. Identify quantitative measures that can be used to determine if

these consensus goals and targets are being met. Make note of whether and by whom these measures are being

monitored and assessed. Select a relatively small number of priority sustainability indicators

that capture the essence of the consensus.

Outline

Meeting Human Needs & Reducing Hunger and PovertyReview of Consensus Goals and TargetsPriority Indicators

Preserving Life Support SystemsReview of Consensus Goals and TargetsPriority Indicators

Conclusions and Future Directions

Extending Life Quality

Strong iterated consensus on extending life quality as measured by: Infant, childhood, and maternal mortality. Incidence of various preventable diseases

(e.g., polio, neonatal tetanus, measles, acute respiratory disease).

Childhood Mortality- State of the Consensus -

Table 1b: Goals and Targets for Childhood Mortality

Convention Goal Target Year

Convention on the Rights of the Child (1989)

Take appropriate measures to diminish. Not Stated

World Summit for Children (1990)

Reduce to 1/3 1990 levels, or to 70 per 1,000 live births, whichever is less.

2000

International Conference On Population And Development (1994)

Reduce by one third, or to 70 per 1,000 live births, whichever is less.

2000

Reduce to below 60 per 1,000 births. 2005

Reduce to below 45 per 1,000 live births 2015

World Summit for Social Development (1995)

Reduce to 1/3 of the 1990 level, or 70 per 1,000 live births, whichever is less

2000

Reduce to below 45 per 1,000 2015

A Better World For All (2000)

Reduce to 1/3 of 1990 level. 2015

Infant/Childhood Mortality- State of the Indicators -

World Infant/Childhood Mortality Rates

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births)

Figure 1a: World Infant and Childhood Mortality Rates (WB, 2000)

Providing Education

Strong iterated consensus on providing education as measured by:Access (net primary school enrollment)Completion (% reaching grade 5)LiteracyMale-female gaps in the above

Providing Education- State of the Consensus (1) -


World Conference on Education for All (1990)

Reduce of the adult illiteracy to ½ its 1990 level. 2000


Reduction of the adult illiteracy rate to at least half its 1990 level with emphasis on female literacy;

Not Stated


Reduce the adult illiteracy rate to at least half its 1990 level.

Not Stated

ICPD+5, 1999 Reduce the rate of illiteracy of women and men, at least halving it for women and girls, compared with the rate in 1990.

2005

Table 3b: Illiteracy

Providing Education- State of the Indicators (1) -

World Adult Illiteracy Rates

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Rat

e

Illiteracy rate, adult female (% of females aged 15 and above)

Illiteracy rate, adult male (% of males aged 15 and above)

Illiteracy rate, adult total (% of people aged 15 and above)

Figure 3c: World Adult Illiteracy Rates (WB, 2000)

Providing Education- State of the Consensus (2) -


World Conference on Education for All (1990)

Reduce the current disparity between male and female illiteracy rates.

2000


Close the gender gap in primary and secondary school education.

2005

A Better World for All (2000) Eliminate gender disparities in primary and secondary education.

2005

Table 3c: Male/Female Disparities

Providing Education- State of the Indicators (2) -

World Illiteracy Gaps

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Gap

(F

-M)

Adult Illiteracy Gap (F-M) Young Adult Illiteracy Gap (F-M)

Figure 3e: World Illiteracy Gaps (WB, 2000)

Reducing HungerStrong iterated consensus to reduce three types of hunger. Crisis hunger as measured by:

Starvation and death caused by famine. Demands for emergency food assistance.

Chronic household hunger as measured by: Number of undernourished people. Prevalence of stunted and underweight children.

Micronutrient deficiencies as measured by: Prevalence of iron deficiency. Prevalence of iodine deficiency. Prevalence of Vitamin A deficiencies.

Reducing Hunger- State of the Consensus -


Convention on the Rights of the Child (1989)

Take appropriate measures to combat malnutrition through the provision of adequate nutritious foods and clean drinking-water, taking into consideration the dangers and risks of environmental pollution.

Not Stated


Reduce severe and moderate malnutrition among under-5 children by half 1990 levels.

2000

World Conference on Human Rights (1993)

Reduce malnutrition rates. Not Stated


Reduce severe and moderate malnutrition among children under five years of age by half of the 1990 level.

2000

World Food Summit (1996)

Reduce the number of undernourished people to half their 1996 level.

2015

Millennium Summit (2000) Halve the proportion of the world's people who suffer from hunger.

2015

Table 4b: Chronic Household Hunger

Reducing Hunger- State of the Indicators -

Figure 4d: Number of Undernourished in the Developing World (FAO, 2000)

Reducing Poverty

Recent consensus on reducing poverty as measured by proportion of people living on less than $1 per day.


Millennium Summit (2000) Halve the proportion of the world's people whose income is less than one dollar a day

2015

World Summit for Social Development +5 (2000)

Reduce the proportion of people living in extreme poverty by one half.

2015

Table 5: Reduce Poverty

Reducing Poverty- State of the Indicators -

Developing World Population Living on Less Than $1.08/day (1993 PPP)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1987 1990 1993 1996 1998

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(%

)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Po

pu

lati

on

(m

illio

ns)

Population (%) Population (Millions)

Figure 5: Population Living Below $1.08 a day (1993 PPP)(Shaohua and Ravillion, 2000; WB 2001a)

Providing Housing & EmploymentConsensus on housing and employment relatively weak.Convention Goal Target Year

Agenda 21 (1992) Ensure that all urban residents have access to at least 40 liters per capita per day of safe water and that 75 per cent of the urban population are provided with on-site or community facilities for sanitation.

Not stated.

Habitat II (1996) “Adequate shelter for all”, but no quantified goals.

Not Stated


Full employment. Not stated.

Millennium Summit (2000) Develop and implement strategies that give young people everywhere a chance to find productive and decent work

Not Stated

Providing Housing & Employment- State of the Indicators -

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Urban Rural

Access to Improved Water

1990 2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

Total Urban Rural

Accessed to Improved Sanitation

1990 2000Source: WHO/UNICEF 2000

• At the end of 2000, approximately one third of the global work force of 3 billion people was unemployed, underemployed, or earn less than needed to keep their families out of poverty. (ILO, 2000)

Priority IndicatorsStrategy for Selection

Focus on indicators for which there are clear quantitative goals and targets.Remove indicators that are highly related to one another except where needed to reiterate an important consensual statement.When all else is equal, choose the indicator associated with the more difficult goal.

Priority IndicatorsGrading the Quality of Reporting and Assessment

A has been and continues to be routinely measured, reported, and assessed on a global basis.B currently being measured, reported, and assessed on a global basis and is likely to be in the future.C global and regional estimates are only possible through extensive modeling and extrapolation.D only rough contemporary estimates vis-à-vis proxies are available.

Priority IndicatorsMeeting Human Needs & Reducing Hunger and Poverty

Priority Human Needs

Topics

Priority Human Needs Indicators

Quality of Reporting and Assessment

Extending Life Quality

Childhood Mortality A

Education Literacy A

Education M-F Literacy Gap A

Reducing Hunger

Prevalence of undernourishment

C

Reducing Hunger

Prevalence of Vitamin A Deficiency

D

Reducing Poverty

Poverty Rate C

Providing Housing

Access to improved sanitation services

B

Box 1: Priority Human Needs Indicators.

Preserving Life Support SystemsConsensus weaker than that for human needs, hunger, and poverty.Consensus is diffused among numerous treaties and agreements (>470). Relatively few issues addressed at global scale. Most address regional or bi-lateral manifestations of

global issues.

However, the many pieces of this fragmentary puzzle fit loosely together to form a more or less complete whole from which one can form the basis for an operational definition of sustainability.

Atmosphere & Climate

Major international agreements address:Greenhouse Gases (UNFCC, Kyoto)Substances that deplete the ozone layer

(Vienna, Montreal, and subsequent)Emissions of SOx, NOx, VOCs, and other

tropospheric ozone precursors (LRTAP, US-Canada)

Toxics (mostly heavy metals) (Aarhus)

Atmosphere & Climate- State of the Indicators (1) -

Figure 7a: Long-term Trends in Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide, Methane, and Nitrous Oxide (IPCC, 2001, pp. 6)

Figure 7f: Past and Projected Concentrations of Stratospheric Chlorine and Bromine (WMO, 1998)

Graphic omitted due to space constraints.

Atmosphere & Climate- State of the Indicators (2) -

Global Anthropogenic SOx Emissions

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Mill

ion

Met

ric

Ton

s S

ulf

ur

Eq

uiv

alen

t

Lefohna, Husar, and Husar Dignon and Hameed 1989 Hameed and Dignon 1992 IPCC SRES

Global Anthropogenic NOx Emissions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Mill

ion

To

ns

of

Eq

uiv

alen

t N

itro

gen

Dignon and Hameed 1989 Hameed and Dignon 1992 IPCC SRES

Figure 7g: Global Anthropogenic SOx Emissions (Lefohn, Husar, and Husar, 1999; Dignon and Hameed, 1989;

Hameed and Dignon, 1992; IPCC 2000)

Figure 7h: Global Anthropogenic NOx emissions (Dignon and Hameed, 1989; Hameed and Dignon, 1992;

IPCC 2000)

OceansThree principal threads of agreements: Protection of marine fisheries

By geography (e.g., Black Sea, Baltic Sea) By specific species of particular interest and economic

value (e.g., Whales, Salmon) Land-based sources of pollution (e.g., Law of the

Sea, Mediterranean Action Plan) Similar to efforts to address fresh water pollution.

Ocean dumping from ships, aircraft, and exploration and mining (e.g., International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships).

Major emphasis on oil spills.

Oceans- State of the Indicators -

Figure 8a: Global Trends in the State of World Fishery Stocks (FAO, 2000b)

Oil Spills >10,000 Gallons (34 Tonnes)(DeCola, 2000)

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

Year

Ton

nes

Oil

Sp

illed

10,000 - 100,000 gallons 100,000 - 1 million gallons 1 million - 10 million gallons

>10 million gallons 5 year moving average (centered)

Figure 8c: Oil Spills Into Marine and Inland Environments From All Sources (DeCola, 2000)

Fresh WaterOnly addressed internationally when water bodies cross national boundaries. >260 international river basins

(Wolf, et. al., 1999) FAOLEX reports 120 international water treaties Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database lists

150 treaties (Yoff, Ward, and Wolf)

Three major threads of agreement: Pollution (e.g., Rhine, Mosel) Withdrawals (e.g., Ganga/Ganges) Fisheries (e.g., Lake Victoria)

Fresh Water- State of the Indicators -

Global Water Withdrawal and Consumption

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Year

km

3/y

ea

r

Withdrawals Consumptive Use

Figure 9b: Global Water Withdrawal and Consumption (Shiklomanov, 1998)

Land Use/Cover ChangeMostly addressed in national and sub-national contexts. International community becomes cases of large-scale land use/cover change phenomena. Desertification (UNCCD) Decline of large wetlands (RAMSAR) Deforestation (ITTA) Transformation of internationally recognized

landmarks (Convention concerning the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage)

Land Use/Cover Change- State of the Indicators -

Figure 10a: Annual Net Flux of Carbon Into the Atmosphere from Changes in Land Use

(Houghton and Hackler, 2001)

Annual Net Flux of Carbon Into the Atmosphere from Changes in Land Use 1850-1990

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1850

1856

1862

1868

1874

1880

1886

1892

1898

1904

1910

1916

1922

1928

1934

1940

1946

1952

1958

1964

1970

1976

1982

1988

Year

Tg C

arbo

n (1

0^9

g)

North America South and Central America Europe

North Africa and Middle East Tropical Africa Former Soviet Union

China South and Southeast Asia Pacif ic Developed Region

Figure 10b: Carbon Flux to the Atmosphere from Land Use Change (Houghton and Hackler, 2001)

Graphic omitted due to space constraints.

Living Resources

Large number of agreements. Major threads include:Marine and freshwater living resources

(see above)Biological Diversity (CITES, CBD)Reserves/Protected Areas (e.g., African

Convention on the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources)

Control of invasive species and pests (e.g., International Plant Protection Convention)

Living Resources- State of the Indicators -

Recent extinction rates are 100 to 1000 times their pre-human levels (Pimm, et. al., 1995).At present, 11% of bird species, close to 18% of mammals, roughly 8% of plant species, and 5% of fish species are currently threatened (Chapin, et. al, 2000; Vitousek, et. al., 1997). Freshwater species are reported to be the most threatened group of vertebrates harvested by humans; however accurate data are hard to collect. In area where studies have been carried out, about 20 percent of freshwater species are threatened, endangered, or extinct" (FAO, 2000b).Over 850 million hectares, 6% of the world's land area, are now designated as protected areas (IUCN management categories I-V) (WRI, 2000, Table BI.1). While there is clear evidence that invasive species pose significant threats to specific valued species and biodiversity in general, efforts to quantify the number, extent, and impact of invasive species over time on a global scale are still in their formative stages (Drake and Mooney, 1989; IUCN).

Toxics

Media specific agreements noted above.

General agreement on: Heavy metals (e.g., Convention Concerning the

Use of White Lead in Painting) Nuclear Radiation (e.g.,Treaty Banning Nuclear

Weapon Tests in the Atmosphere, in Outer Space and under Water )

Persistent Organic Pollutants (Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants)

Toxics- State of the Indicators -

• Global annual emissions of dioxins and furans are estimated to be 50±10 kg international toxic equivalency units where tolerable adult daily intake is one to four picograms (10-12 grams) per kilogram body weight (UNEP/Chemicals, 1999).

Figure 11a: Global emissions of metals to the atmosphere in 1983, natural versus anthropogenic. (AMAP, 2001)

The percentages shown in the bars are based on range values and therefore do not sum to 100 percent

Priority Indicators- Preserving Life Support Systems -

Topics Indicators Quality of Reporting and Assessment

Atmosphere/Climate CO2 concentrations A

Atmosphere/Climate SOX emissions B/C

Ocean Productivity Fishery Stocks B/C

Freshwater Availability Consumptive water withdrawals D

Land Use/Cover Change Net CO2 flux into the atmosphere due to anthropogenic land use change.

C

Biodiversity Same as above limited to biodiversity hotspots.

D

Toxics Dioxin and furan emissions. D

Box 2: Priority Life Support System Indicators

Conclusions (1)

Existing international consensus provides an effective framework for defining a sustainability transition in terms of: What is to be developed What is to be sustained Over what time periods

Emphasis on existing international consensus justifies selection of 14 priority indicators – a small number relative to other efforts.

Conclusions (2)Some progress, but not complete success in many of the agreed upon indicators for human development.General agreement on range of issues to address in relation to preserving life support system issues. Few concrete goals and targets, assessment

mechanisms, or means of effective implementation.

One can imagine re-arranging the current haphazard framework into one organized along the lines of ecosystem services.

Future DirectionsOperationalize key indicators to inform whether we are moving nearer to or farther away from a sustainability transition.Aggregate set of 14 indicators into 3 overall indicators for meeting human needs, reducing hunger and poverty, and preserving life support systems.Test sensitivity of indicator selection to scale.Analyze driving forces and opportunities for policy intervention that will shape future trends and transitions.

characterizing a sustainability transition:

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