charlotte 2020 project v-swarm live - hawkeye traders

Project V-Swarm LiveCharlotte 2020

www.HawkeyeTraders.comAll material contained herein is protected by U.S. and International copyright law. No material contained in this presentation can be used without the written, expressed permission of Hawkeye Traders, LLC

http://www.hawkeyetraders.com/

Project V-Swarm LiveBasic Training

www.HawkeyeTraders.comAll material contained herein is protected by U.S. and International copyright law. No material contained in this presentation can be used without the written, expressed permission of Hawkeye Traders, LLC

http://www.hawkeyetraders.com/

Disclaimer

FUTURES, FOREX, STOCK, AND OPTIONS TRADING ARE NOT APPROPRIATE FOR ALL TRADERS. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADING THESE MARKETS. LOSSES CAN AND WILL OCCUR. NO SYSTEM OR METHODOLOGY HAS EVER BEEN DEVELOPED THAT CAN ENSURE RETURNS OR AGAINST LOSSES. NO REPRESENTATION OR IMPLICATION IS BEING MADE THAT USING ANY OF THESE METHODOLOGIES OR SYSTEMS WILL GENERATE RETURNS OR ENSURE AGAINST LOSSES.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

Topics Covered● So you want to be a trader?● Trading Personality● Trader Types● Trading Plans● Volume Price Analysis● 6 Ways a Market Moves● Psychology for Traders● Hawkeye Basic/Advanced Tools Review● 3 Step Entry Exit Method● Trade Management

So you want to be a trader?● Pitfalls

● Hard Work● Tuition● Isolated● Emotional Rollercoaster

So you want to be a trader?● Benefits

● Flexible work day● Financial security● Freedom● No more rush hour traffic● Mentally Challenging

Failure = ExperienceExperience = Success

Types of Traders● Scalpers – Take small profits out

throughout the day, fast trades● Intraday Trader – Enter in the morning,

exit in the afternoon● Swing Trader – Will hold trade from a

couple of days to a couple of weeks.● Position Trader – Will hold trade from

months to year.

Having a Plan● Suppose for a moment that you wanted

to open a new business.● What are your first steps?● What is your objective?● What are your entry parameters?● What are your risk parameters?● What are your exit parameters?

Having a Plan● Successful business owners anticipate:

● Their goals● Their business needs

● Equipment● Capital

● They follow their plan and modify as needed to achieve their ultimate business objective

● They review their plan quarterly

We WILL be going over Trade Plans in detail later on in this seminar

Timeframes● Scalpers and Intraday Traders

● See quick price action which is not restricted by timeframe.

● Swing and Position Traders● Use time charts to smooth volatility

Trading Plans

Volume and Price

History of Volume● In the 1930s, there were three great traders.

● W.D. Gann – An eccentric who used methods based on ancient mathematics, geometry, and astrology.

● Ralph Nelson Elliott – Method based on wave count. Although a great hindsight tool, in the live edge of the market, where do you start the wave count?

● Richard Wycoff – Method based on analyzing volume with price movement.

Richard Wyckoff

• Traded in the 1930’s• Studied volume and price• Traveled to America and met

with Wyckoff’s family• Got his original course notes

How Volume Trading WorksTrading using volume gives you the following:● Volume confirms the strength of a trend or

suggests its weakness.● Rising volume indicates rising interest● Falling volume suggests a decline in interest, or a

statement of no interest.● Extreme volume readings, i.e. climax volume,

often highlights price reversals.● Points where the market trades on high volume

are the points of strong support and resistance.● Breakouts and market spikes can be validated or

ignored with the help of volume.

Why Volume Is So Important

• Is the only leading indicator

• Signals price movement before it happens

• Signals market intent

All other indicators by comparison are lagging.

Volume On Triple Time Frames Is The Key!

Volume

Monitoring Volume In Three Timeframes

Traditional Trading

• Between 70% and 80% of traders are failing

• Using traditional trading strategies

– MACD

– Stochastic

– Bollinger bands

– Elliott Wave

Understanding Volume Price Analysis

The Opening Price Principle

• Standard VSA doesn’t consider the open

• Hawkeye considers this as paramount

• Very similar to an auction

• Sets the basis for the session

The Opening Price PrincipleAdd 3

Add 2

Add 1

$85

With Profit Accelerator: $403

Volume Price Analysis• In the 1930’s, stock market wizard Richard Wyckoff

took volume and found a predictive indicator he called Volume Spread Analysis (VSA).

• Hawkeye Volume takes VSA and compares it to price, ATR, and other key information to create what we call Volume Price Analysis.

• The end result is a very accurate prediction of market direction and sentiment.

Standard Volume● Standard Volume is the total number of shares

bought and sold during a specific time or tick interval and takes no account of the open and close.

Volume = 174,273

Volume Price Analysis

● Volume Price Analysis takes into account volume plus comparing the open and close.

Open

Close

High

Low


Volume

VSA

Hawkeye VolumeAverage of X number of volume bars

Compared toAverage True Range

Compared toOpen and Close of the price bar

The Hawkeye Volume indicator performs over 300 calculations per bar.


• Sophisticated way of trading○ More Forensic analysis than technical

• How you perceive charts (structure of mkt)

• How to see trades more clearly

• How to keep the profits you make

• How you protect your positions

Application ofVolume Price Analysis

Wide Price Bar With High Volume

You should expect a greater than average volume. The relationship of the close on Bar A is an indication of whether it is buying or selling – the close is in the bottom 1/3 of the range indicating selling.

Bar A

Wide Price Bar With Low Volume

You should expect a greater than average volume. Although, Bar A appears to have more volume than previous bars for the range of that bar, it should have had substantially more volume for that range. So this is, in fact, a low volume bar indicating a pause. This is confirmed with the close being at the midpoint of the range.

Bar A

Narrow Price Bar With Low Volume

Narrow price bar you should expect low volume. Bar A shows a narrow range and low volume – indicating a pause. Even though the close is less than the open, it shows that there was no demand for selling.

Bar A

Narrow Price Bar With High Volume in Uptrend

Even at the top of the trend, Bar A shows that there is above average volume for that range indicating buying. If it was selling, the range would have been far greater as the bid and offer would have expanded. Even though the close is less than the open, it is showing that this share was not being sold, in fact it is a sign of strength.

Bar A

Narrow Price Bar With High Volume in Downtrend

Bar A shows there is above average volume for the range indicating buying. Even though the close was less than the open, it indicates accumulation, for if it was selling the range would have been far greater.

Bar A

Applying Volume Spread Analysis

Two weeks before report was due.

Applying Volume Price Analysis ● Ebay

● Began the new year at $58.60 per share

● Earnings report expected January 19, 2005

● Close on January 20, 2005● $41.67 per share

● However, with volume price analysis, sellers were identified entering the market as early as January 3, 2005

16 Days before the Earnings Report was published

Applying Volume Spread Analysis

ES 5-min Chart

Back to Basics:6 Ways a Market Moves● A market can only move 6 ways

● Trend ● Trend Pause● Congestion Entrance● Congestion● Congestion Exit● Trend Reversal

Back to Basics:6 Ways a Market Moves● Identifying where you are in a market is

absolutely vital to being a successful trader.

Isolated Lows

Lower low than previous bar and next bar (Point A) and a lower high than previous bar and next bar (Point A).

Note: Phantom isolated lows occur when only the low condition Point A is met. There is no need to see where the high is.

A

Isolated Highs

Higher high than previous bar and the next bar (Point A) and a higher low than previous bar and next bar (Point A).

NOTE: Phantom isolated highs occur when only the high condition Point A is meet. There is no need to see where the low is.

A

Trend Run

Trend run is established (Point A) when the close is above the dot, the dot is rising and the close is greater than the open and in the top 40% of range.

NOTE: At Point B the dot is equidistant from the previous dot and continues to be equidistant.

A

B

Trend Pause

▪ Is exactly the same as a trend run. However, when a close is under the dot and open (Point A) but the dot is still rising, it denotes a pause.

▪ You are then looking to see resumption of the trend run (close being greater than the dot ) this should occur within three to five time frames.

A

Trend Pause

Congestion Entrance

When the close is under the dot and the dot is flatish to the previous dot, you have congestion entrance (Point B). You then look for the last isolated/phantom high (Point A).

A

B

Congestion Entrance

Congestion

● Once congestion entrance has been defined you are then waiting for the first isolated /phantom low to form (Point B). This has to be within 5 bars.

● Extend a dotted line from the isolated/phantom high (Point A) and the isolated/phantom low (Point B), you then have your congestion high and low channel.

● As the chart continues, you will see new lower isolated highs (not phantoms) and isolated lows developing you then move your congestion parameters to these newly formed pivots (Point C and Point D).

NOTE: If after congestion entry there are no isolated / phantom low formed within 5 bars, you are in trend run down and trade it according to the rules.

A

B

C

D

Congestion

Congestion Exit

▪ Once having defined congestion you are waiting for a close either above the last isolated high (Point C) or below the last isolated low (Point D).

▪ At Point E the close is greater than at Point C and a congestion exit to the upside has commenced. The bar close must be greater than the open and in the top 40% of the range of the bar (approximately).

NOTE: In this example at Point E, the dot has also printed above the dotted line at Point C. This is a stronger indication of congestion exit but a close greater than Point C is sufficient.

EA

B

C

D

Congestion Exit

Trend Reversal

At Point B the bar is wide and the dot is less than the dot 3 bars previously and close less than dot.

B

Trend Reversal

Putting It All TogetherThe Power of the Trend Dots

1 contract = $4,487 Profit

Psychology for Traders --

It is said that trading is 20% technicals and 80% psychological

Why: Because emotions short-circuit our logical brains.

It’s not your fault….

Psychology for Traders --What to ExpectEmotional Sabotage

● Fear● Frustration● Rage● Self-doubt● Over-confidence● Loss of capital

Possible Trigger for Emotional Sabotage● Being a winner● Being a loser● Having an opinion● Trading your opinion● Over analyzing● Impulsivity● Gambling● Playing “catch up”


What Emotions are taking over when this happens?

● Not taking the trade set up● Moving stops or targets● Entering trades not in your trade plan● Reversing a losing trade● Placing entries slowly● Closing a winning position before it hits the

pre-defined target or stop-loss


Psychology for Traders --Successful Traders

● Identify their emotional obstacles And, then● Separate those emotions from their trading● Trade what they see● Are consistent

Psychology for Traders –Successful Traders

● Clinical in their execution● Do not think of the financial reward of each

trade● Think in probabilities- not of winning or losing

Do not have opinions -- Do not have opinions

Do not have opinions -- Do not have opinions

Psychology for Becoming a Successful TraderChange your thought processes

● Having a minus day does not make you a bad trader

● You cannot “will” the market to do what you want

● You cannot “predict” where the market is going -- because the market will go where it wants, when it wants, how it wants

Psychology for Becoming a Successful Trader

● You do not have to work 12 hours● Be consistent in entries, stops, and exits● You trade only your rules - not opinions● Effort is not rewarded by time but by

discipline for the time you are in front of your charts

Trade smart, not hard

Psychology for Becoming a Successful Trader● Remember losses are part of trading.● Small losses are actually a good thing –

you are successfully protecting your business capital.

● Stop searching for the next indicator.● Remember trading is a skill, or even an

art... not a science.

Psychology for Becoming a Successful Trader● Let the market lead you – no opinions.● Find a setup that works for you and STICK

with it!● Realize there is NO HOLY GRAIL, you will

have negative trades, which is why you have a stop loss to protect your capital.

● Realize that the market is always there, today and tomorrow.

Patience – Patience - Patience

Trading Behavior That Will Result in a Loss● Refusing to define your loss per trade, ie

not placing a stop loss order.● Not closing a losing trade even after

acknowledging that your analysis was incorrect.

● Having an opinion regarding market direction.

Trading Behavior That Will Result in a Loss● OPINION - OPINION - OPINION● Not following the rules of your trading

system.● Being immobilized to take the trade.● Establishing a successful track record

and becoming over-confident, reckless, and disregarding your money management and trading rules.

Let’s do an Exercise For Fun

● Neuro-Linguistics Programming - NLP● Anchoring technique

● to instill, and then later recall, a certain state of mind.

● Champion Trader State ● to help get into the right frame of mind

before trading.

Exercise For Fun

● Pick three qualities you would like to have while you trade

● We will install them one at a time

Exercise For Fun

Exercise For Fun

● Reinforce your Anchor ● Create new Anchors

Trading Personality● Not all traders are alike

● Do you view the world visually?● Impatient, you want fast results.

● Do you view the world through sounds that you hear?● Patient but can get bored with watching charts.

● Do you view the world through what you feel?● Tend to wait and analyze how you feel about a

trade.

Trading Personality● Important Questions to Ask Yourself

(keep a log):● Why did you enter the trade?● Why did you exit the trade?● What were your thoughts and emotional

reactions when you had a negative trade?● What were your thoughts and emotional

reactions when you had a positive trade?

Keep Charts Simple

Proportion can make a difference!

Hawkeye Basic Tools

● Hawkeye Volume● Volume PaintBar, Volume Radar

● Hawkeye Trend● Trend+Stops, Heatmap, Adds

● Hawkeye Levels ATR● Levels ATR Auto, Up, Down

● Hawkeye Grabba● Grabba Auto, Up, Down

● Pivots & Widebar

Basic Tools Review

Hawkeye Advanced Tools

● Hawkeye Roadkill● Hawkeye Fatman● Hawkeye Zones● Hawkeye Toolset● Hawkeye Gears● Hawkeye Fatboy● Hawkeye Kiss

Advanced Tools Review

Hawkeye Entry and Exit

3-Step Entry Exit Method● General Principles:

● 3 timeframes are used for entry● Fast - enter and exit on this timeframe● Medium - double Fast timeframe● Slow - double Medium timeframe

● Conservative Trend Speed Default● If trading stocks/options, do not trade

against the direction of the Hawkeye Trend on the daily S&P 500

Entry MethodStep 1 - Fast TimeframeA, B, and C MUST be in place

You now have to look at the next TWO timeframes for confirmation

Long Short

A. Trend dot greenB. Volume green (min 2 bars green)C. Heatmap bright green

A. Trend dot redB. Volume red (min 2 bars red)C. Heatmap bright red

Entry MethodStep 2 - Medium TimeframeA, B, and C MUST be in place

You now have to look at the Slow timeframe for confirmation

Long Short

A. Trend dot rolled over or risingB. Volume green. The second volume

bar may be green or whiteC. Heatmap dark (red or green) or bright

green

A. Trend dot rolled over or fallingB. Volume red. The second volume bar

may be red or whiteC. Heatmap dark (red or green) or bright

red

Entry MethodStep 3 - Slow TimeframeA and B MUST be in place

Long Short

A. Trend dot rolled over/flat/crunched up tight

B. Volume green

( Note: No consideration of Heatmap)

A. Trend dot rolled over/flat/crunched up tight

B. Volume red

( Note: No consideration of Heatmap)

Exit MethodThere are 3 types of exits1. Trend Following2. ATR Levels Stop3. Profit Target

Exit MethodExit Type 1 - Trend Following

Long Short

A. Hold until stopped outB. If volume green or white, use crash

barrierC. If volume red then close under HK

stop (green cross) or intraday touch of barrier

Note: With the trend stop there is the ability to pull the stop into aggressive after your pre-determined nominated amount of bars i.e. if in profit after 7 bars you can pull stop in from conservative to aggressive

A. Hold until stopped outB. If volume red or white, use crash

barrierC. If volume green then close over HK

stop (red cross) or intraday touch of barrier

Note: With the trend stop there is the ability to pull the stop into aggressive after your pre-determined nominated amount of bars i.e. if in profit after 7 bars you can pull stop in from conservative to aggressive

Exit MethodExit Type 2 - Hawkeye Levels ATR

Long Short

A. Until price closes ABOVE 2 ATR then use close below ATR Level stop or a touch of the HK stop (green cross) to exit

B. If it continues to move in your direction once there is a price close ABOVE 2 ATR then exit if there is a close below 1 ATR or an intraday touch of 0 ATR.

C. Move up every NEW ATR level break e.g. Close over 3 ATR then exit on close below 2 ATR or touch of 1 ATR

A. Until price closes BELOW 2 ATR then use close below ATR Level stop or a touch of the HK stop (red cross) to exit

B. If it continues to move in your direction once there is a price close BELOW 2 ATR then exit if there is a close above 1 ATR or an intraday touch of 0 ATR.

C. Move down every NEW ATR level break e.g. Close below 3 ATR then exit on close above 2 ATR or touch of 1 ATR

Exit MethodExit Type 3 - Profit TargetYou may choose to exit on a price touch of a pre-defined ATR Level (HK Level 3, the “sunshine level”) or any other pre-defined profit target.

My Favorite Predefined Profit Levels:ES, RTY, EMD - 2ptsYM - 15ptsNQ - 5ptsCL - 20ticksForex - 10pipsEquities - too many variables… Options - 0.20

Stops ● Definitive Stops

● Hawkeye Crash Barrier – Emergency Brake; if touched, exit

● Hawkeye Stop – If volume is contrary to your position and price closes below Stop, exit.

Stops● Optional Stops

● Zero Level – If after entry, price closes below Zero Line, ask yourself, “Do I still want to be in this position?”

● Seven Bar No Progress, count 7 bars from your entry point. At the close of the 7th bar, ask yourself, “Do I still want to be in this position?”

Taking Your Profits● If market is moving, take Profits at

● Level 3 – 50%● Level 5 – 25%● Level 7 – 25%

● If market is not moving normally (no volatility), take one level

Adding● Scalpers – Do not add

○ Take small profits throughout the day● Intraday – Add once

○ Holds position for hours or to end of day● Swing – Add once

○ Holds positions from days to weeks● Position – Use Hawkeye Adds

○ Holds positions from months to year

Basic Risk Management ● Maximum number of trades open at any

one time = 3● If you want to open a new position, you

must close the weakest existing trade● Never risk more than 10% equity on any

one trade

Basic Risk ManagementTotal Capital

$18,000

$9,000 $9,000Cash Box Trade Box

50% of Profits go in Cash Box $3,000 $3,000 $3,000

Cash Box

Trade Box

50% of Profits go in Trade Box

Basic Risk Management

Customer SupportWeekly Live Training sessions

http://hawkeyetraders.com/free-training-room/

[email protected]

Phone(302) 261-2830

mailto:[email protected]

charlotte 2020 project v-swarm live - hawkeye traders

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