china cars
TRANSCRIPT
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TOYOTA in China:The right products?
Day 2
Research project
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Toyota Global Vision
Sales goals by market
20152010
40%
60%50% 50%
Emerging marketsIndustrialized nations
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Toyota Global Vision
Sales in 2010: 7,308,000 units
Emerging markets in 2010: 2,923,200Emerging markets in 2015: 4,384,800(If the numbers of units sold in industrialized nations stays the same.)
Therefore, forecasted CAGR in emerging markets is 50% over 5 years, i.e. 10% growth per year.
Can Toyota do it? Is there a market potential?
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Global AutomotiveSales Forecast
2011 2012 2013 2020 CAGRAverage growth
per year
U.S. 13 14.5 15.5 15 15.4% 1.7%Japan 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.5 -4.3% -0.5%W. Europe 14.6 15.3 16 14.5 -0.7% -0.1%E. Europe 2.1 2.3 2.7 3.2 52.4% 5.8%Brazil 3.4 3.6 3.8 5.7 67.6% 7.5%Russia 2.2 2.5 2.9 5.7 159.1% 17.7%India 3.2 3.5 3.9 8.4 162.5% 18.1%China 18.7 20.7 22.4 30.2 61.5% 6.8%Asia 5.6 5.8 6 6.8 21.4% 2.4%Rest of World 10 10.5 10.3 13.1 31.0% 3.4%Total 77.5 83.3 88.2 107.1 38.2% 4.2%
Source: Goldman Sachs Japan through wardsauto.com/ar/forecast_global_demand_110216
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How to achieve 50% CAGRin emerging markets over 5 years
Key markets to succeed - China and India (sales growth and volume)
China - the biggest market in the world, slower growth from now due to government policies but still high
Toyota - the largest manufacturer in the world in 2010, now losing its position to VW and GM
So, Toyota must succeed in China. What is the reality?
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China’s 10 largest carmanufacturers in 2010
Units 2009 Units 2010 Growth 20101. SAIC 2,705,390 3,558,400 31.53%2. Dongfeng 2,002,793 2,724,800 36.05%3. FAW 1,944,660 2,558,200 31.55%4. Changan 1,869,832 2,378,800 27.22%5. Beijing Auto 1,243,034 1,489,900 19.86%6. Guangzhou Auto 636,715 724,200 13.74%7. Chery 500,330 682,100 36.33%8. BYD 448,374 519,800 15.93%9. Brilliance 348,340 501,400 43.94%10. JAC 321,845 458,500 42.46%Total of top 10 12,021,312 15,596,100 29.74%Market share 88% 86%Grand total 13,641,918 18,061,900 32.40%
Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers through www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/01/china-car-market-101-who-makes-all-those-18-million-cars/
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Passenger car salesin China in 2010
Units 2009 Units 2010 Growth 20101. SAIC-GM-Wuling 976,776 1,135,600 16%2. Shanghai GM 708,406 1,012,100 43%3. Shanghai Volkswagen 728,291 1,001,400 38%4. FAW Volkswagen 669,179 870,000 30%5. Chongqing Changan 518,513 710,000 37%6. Beijing Hyundai 570,293 703,000 23%7. Chery 500,334 674,800 35%8. Dongfeng Nissan 518,961 661,000 27%9. BYD 448,374 519,800 16%10. Toyota 425,126 505,900 ??? 19%Total 5,773,037 7,793,600 35%Market share 57%Grand total 13,672,982
2010GM 2.4 milVW 1.9 mil
2010Hyundai 1 milNissan 1 mil
Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers through www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/01/china-car-market-101-who-makes-all-those-18-million-cars/and Reuters: in.reuters.com/article/2011/01/10/idINIndia-54043220110110
Toyota: 846,000
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China’s Best SellingCars of 2010
Model Manufacturer Price in $ Units sold
1 BYD F3 BYD 7,821 - 12,200 263,900
2 No.2 Volkswagen Lavida Shanghai VW 18,117 - 21,137 251,600
3 Hyundai Elantra Yue Dong Beijing Hyundai 16,247 - 18,088 233,300
4 Volkswagen Jetta FAW-VW 11,440 - 14,912 224,500
5 Buick Excelle Shanghai GM 15,976 - 17,940 222,500
6 Volkswagen Santana Shanghai-VW 11,592 - 12,045 210,100
7 FAW Xiali FAW 6,626 - 7,532 198,700
8 Chevrolet Cruze Shanghai GM 187,800
9 Cowin Chery 173,500
10 Volkswagen Bora FAW-VW 16,280 - 22,321 172,500
Source: autos.globaltimes.cn/photo/2011-01/611358.html
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China’s Best SellingCars of 2010
1. BYD F3 2. Volkswagen Lavida
3. Hyundai Elantra Yue Dong No.4 Volkswagen Jetta
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China’s Best SellingCars of 2010
5. Buick Excelle 6. Volkswagen Santana 7. FAW Xiali
8. Chevrolet Cruze 9. Cowin 10. Volkswagen Bora
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Where is Toyota?
No. 1 world manufacturer is not in top 10 in the biggest market!!!Does Toyota have the right products in China?
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Toyota in China - products
17 models (excluding Lexus) Rather luxurious, only 5 of them below
$30,000!!! Big difference from the top 10… Camry – middle class in the US, high-end
in China A new small car designed specifically for
China to be launched in 2013 – rather late! approximately US$12,000 (Etios in India launched in
Dec 2010 – also late…)
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Toyota in China – other issues
Promotion issues – weak in magazines Dealerships – relatively luxurious service:
check in, greeting by name, automatically playing piano, leather sofas, free coffee, internet access…
Weak partners for joint ventures with local manufacturers : China FAW Group - state-owned enterprise, difficult to work
with Guangzhou Automobile Group – not among the top
manufacturers GM partnered with SAIC - a premier auto manufacturer with
international ambitions
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Outlook
VW – investing $13.8 billion by 2015 GM - current growth of 15% versus the
market growth of 5% (rate of growth revision in October)
Toyota - “We’re not going all out to go as fast as we can in China. We’ve learned a big lesson. We want to be careful.”
(Karl Schlicht, head of the global product and marketing division at Lexus)
Toyota is too cautious…
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Outlook
Low-end car market – lower growth but still good (tax subsidy was lifted)
Middle class – more promising
Suggestions:
Get a low-end car, China specific car quickly.
Improve corporate image. New and better joint venture?
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Sources
Toyota Annual Report 2011Reuters Bloomberg BusinessweekChina Association of Automobile ManufacturersGlobal Times