china education statistics for international educators

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Key China Education Statistics for international educators

A report for EIC Group China partners November 2011

partners.eic.org.cn

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Key China Statistics for international educators This report was prepared for international university, college and school partners of EIC Group China. The report covers major education participation rates and domestic capacity statistics and trends in China. Partners will find many of the statistics useful for understanding the education market in China, and for planning their current and future marketing strategies. China is a complex and dynamic education market. The growth in participation rates among school and higher education age cohorts, in the years from 2000-2010, have been extraordinary. Domestic capacity has also grown rapidly to accommodate demand for senior secondary and higher education. Over this period, China’s higher education system grew from 9.3 million students to over 33 million students. Changing demographics is changing market dynamics. With rapidly shrinking school age cohorts, growth in higher education participation for the 18-22 year old cohort from 24.2% to 40% in 2020, will only require a further 17% increase in higher education capacity for school leavers. This is remarkably small compared to the over 300% growth of the previous 10 years. The days of significant “unmet demand” are over, with students better able to choose and access domestic diploma and undergraduate programs. Nonetheless, the number of students going abroad to study has been steadily increasing. We continue to see strong demand at all levels for international education for most destination countries. Overview is that those Partners that position themselves well to meet the needs of students, who have increasing choice at home and abroad, will continue to succeed in student recruitment in China. The focus of this Paper is to provide key statistics covering student participation rates, domestic demand and capacity. We will continue to publish further papers on some of the strategies and opportunities for Partners positioning themselves for the challenges ahead. Chris Francis, Strategic Development Director EIC Group

+ Chinese students going abroad for the first time.

Year Number of Students

% Growth

1995 23,486 NA

2000 38,989 66%

2001 83,973 115.4%

2002 125,179 49%

2003 117,307 (6.3%)

2004 114,663 (2.7%)

2005 118,500 3.3%

2006 134,000 12.9%

2007 144,000 7.9%

2008 179,800 24.9%

2009 229,000 27.4%

2010 284,700 24.3%

+ Chinese public scholarships and self funded students.

Year Number

of Students

China funded Scholarships

Self funded

Publicly funded %

1995 23,486 10,886 12,600 46.4%

2000 38,989 6,696 32,293 17.2%

2001 83,973 7,921 76,052 9.4%

2002 125,179 8,180 117,000 6.5%

2003 117,307 8,200 109,100 7%

2004 114,663 10,360 104,300 9%

2005 118,500 12,000 106,500 10%

2006 134,000 13,122 121,880 10%

2007 144,000 15,810 129,000 11%

2008 179,800 18,200 161,600 10.1%

2009 229,300 19,200 210,100 8.4%

2010 284,700 18,300 266,400 6.9%

Opportunities for recruiting students on Chinese publicly funded scholarships are limited. Scholarships are granted through the Chinese Ministry of Education and a wide range of public authorities primarily for research degrees. Self funded students (or those receiving merit scholarships directly from institutions abroad) continue to dominate the study abroad market.

+ Domestic ‘Gaokao’ university entrance exam participation.

Year Number of Examinees

Admitted %

1977 5,700,000 270,000 4.8%

1980 3,330,000 280,000 8%

1985 1,760,000 620,000 35%

1990 2,830,000 610,000 22%

1995 2,530,000 930,000 37%

2000 3,750,000 2,210,000 59%

2001 4,540,000 2,680,000 59%

2002 5,100,000 3,200,000 63%

2003 6,130,000 3,820,000 62%

2004 7,290,000 4,470,000 61%

2005 8,770,000 5,040,000 57%

2006 9,500,000 5,460,000 57%

2007 10,100,000 5,660,000 56%

2008 10,500,000 5,990,000 57%

2009 10,200,000 6,290,000 62%

2010 9,57,000 6,650,000 69.5%

2011 9,330,000 6,750,000 72.3%

Admissions rates for students taking the national university entrance exams has continued to rise. In metropolitan centres such as Beijing and Shanghai, admission rates for candidates is over 85% in 2011, leaving a very small pool of students unable to gain higher education places.

+ Notes on Gaokao statistics

1977-1980 high examinee numbers driven by resumption of exams after Cultural Revolution.

Participation rates in senior high school increasing rapidly during this period.

Not all high school graduates take exam. Statistics indicative of demand for domestic undergraduate places.

Peak year in 2008 for absolute numbers of examinees.

High school participation rate continues to grow though school age cohorts in significant decline.

Chinese Ministry of Education objective to grow senior high school participation rate of the 15-17 age cohort from 82.5% in 2010 to 90% by 2020.

Increase in demand driven primarily by increase in participation in age cohort.

Age cohort declining reflected in reduction in examinees after 2008, despite higher participation rate.

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Year Number of Candidates

Growth Enrolled % Enrolled

2012 1,656,000 6.9% TBA TBA

2011 1,511,000 7.9% 495,000 32.8%

2010 1,406,000 12.8% 472,000 33.6%

2009 1,246,000 3.8% 415,000 33.3%

2008 1,200,000 (0.6%) 364,000 30.3%

2007 1,282,000 0.8% 390,000 30.4%

2006 1,271,200 8.4% 402,800 31.7%

2005 1,172,000 24% 324,940 27.7%

2004 945,000 18.5% 330,000 34.9%

2003 797,000 27.7% 270,000 33.9%

2002 624,000 35.7% 195,000 31.25%

2001 460,000 17.3% 110,500 24%

2000 392,000 22.9% 85,000 21.7%

Applications for graduate programs via the national graduate entrance examinations.

Graduate places remains highly competitive. While there has been significant growth in places and capacity, domestic provision has scaled up far more slowly than for undergraduate places. Significant unmet demand remains in the system with large number of high calibre candidates unable to obtain a graduate place. International providers continue to be well positioned to grow Chinese graduate student recruitment.

+ Higher Education Students in China.

Year Undergraduate / Junior College Diploma

Masters Ph.D. Total

2000 9,097,300 301,200 9,398,500

2001 11,750,500 329,256 12,079,756

2002 13,751,150 500,980 14,252,130

2003 16,732,942 651,260 17,384,202

2004 19,898,833 654,286 165,610 20,718,729

2005 22,631,151 787,293 191,317 23,609,761

2006 25,380,151 896,615 208,038 26,484,804

2007 27,195,304 972,539 222,508 28,390,351

2008 29,252,148 1,046,429 236,617 30,535,194

2009 31,251,500 1,158,600 246,300 32,656,400

2010 32,209,760 1,279,466 258,950 33,748,176

2000-2010 was a period of extraordinary growth for the Chinese higher education system. Public and private capacity rapidly expanded, with extraordinary investment in facilities and infrastructure.

+ Participation rates in secondary and higher education in China.

Year Junior secondary (12-14 years)

Senior secondary (15-17 years)

Higher education (18-22 years)

1990 66.7% 21.9% 3.4%

1995 78.4% 33.6% 7.2%

2000 88.6% 42.8% 12.5%

2001 88.7% 42.8% 13.3%

2002 90.0% 42.8% 15.0%

2003 92.7% 43.8% 17.0%

2004 94.1% 48.1% 19.0%

2005 95.0% 52.7% 21.0%

2006 97% 59.8% 22.0%

2007 98% 66% 23.0%

2008 98.5% 74% 23.3%

2009 99% 79.2% 24.2%

2010 100% 82.5% 26.5%

2020 Target

100% 90% 40%

Growth in secondary and higher education has been driven by rapidly increasing participation rates, more than by age cohort growth. Ahead, with declining demographics, participation rates will climb to 40% by 2020 with only incremental growth in higher education places.

+ International students coming to China….

Year Number of Students

% Growth

2000 52,150 NA

2001 61,869 18.6%

2002 85,829 38.7%

2003 77,715 (9.45%)

2004 110,844 42.6%

2005 141,087 27.3%

2006 162,695 15.3%

2007 195,503 20.2%

2008 223,449 14.3%

2009 238,184 6.6%

2010 265,090 11.3%

China becomes a major destination country….

2010 • 22,390 international students in China on Chinese government

scholarships. • Major sending countries in order: Korea, USA, Japan, Thailand, Vietnam,

Russia, Indonesia, India, Kazakhstan and Pakistan. • 107,432 students on award (Bachelors, Masters & Doctoral programs) and

157,658 students on non-award programs. • The Ministry of Education announced that by 2020, China intends to host

500,000 international students and become the largest destination for overseas study for students from Asia.

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Demographic decline

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year 7 new

students

990,600 946,600 865,800 779,000 701,040

An example from Jiangsu Province…

The pipeline shrinks by 29.2% to 2015

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year 9

graduates

1,213,500 1,115,200 1,024,300 962,800 914,000

Growth NA (12.87%) (9.88%) (1.64%) (3.3%)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year 12

Mainstream

449,700 522,400 499,100 513,100 486,400

Year 12

Vocational

243,200 265,700 289,400 301,200 264,600

Total 692,900 788,100 788,500 814,300 751,000

Jiangsu Province serves as a good example of the demographic decline in school age cohorts. In the 5 years from 2006-2010, the Year 7 cohort declined by 29.2%. This cohort graduates in 2015 and faces less competition than any other in history in a greatly expanded domestic university system. Age cohort participation in higher education in Jiangsu has already reached 40%.

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Demographic decline An example from Hunan Province…

The closing “unmet demand” gap….

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Admitted

Candidates

Hunan Students taking University Entrance Exams 2006-2010. Candidates vs. Admissions. (1,000s)

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Admission rates of Hunan students into higher education 2006-2010

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Regional reports. The statistics below outline the regional context of Chinese education. Given that many Provinces represent a far larger opportunity for international educators than the traditional metropolitan centers of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, a regional strategy is a mid-to-long term necessity. The Report does not cover how many Chinese students are recruited for overseas education from each Province or region or into which destination markets. Currently, reliable figures for this are not available, with no foreign Embassies publicly releasing student visa statistics with a breakdown by Chinese geographic region. Work with AEI, the British Council, Education USA and other industry organizations to obtain greater understanding of the regional markets you plan to enter. The purpose of the brief regional profiles below is to offer insights into the scope of the opportunity by region, rather than a detailed strategy on how to undertake regional marketing in China. Each Partner has differing recruitment needs, resources and considerations when setting regional objectives. At EIC Group China, we strongly encourage our Partners to visit our regional offices and to join our major events held in March, June and October each year across 17 key regions of China. Beyond this, there are many solutions providers in both China and abroad that can support online marketing and branding in Chinese to create a ‘digital solution’ to the regional issue. EIC’s Partner Services unit also offers solutions for online branding and marketing. Many Partners have internal staff and student resources capable of supporting these efforts at low or no cost. EIC will be releasing a paper soon on how to undertake low or no cost branding efforts online in China. Chris Francis, Strategic Development Director EIC Group

+ Sources of Chinese Higher Education Students by Province 2010.

Province / Municipality

Undergraduate / Junior College Diploma students

Masters students

Ph.D. students

Total Higher Education Students

Beijing 747,228 30,964 14,652 792,884

Tianjin 419,398 18,341 3,423 441,162

Hebei 1,596,100 75,796 11,769 1,683,665

Shanxi 1,036,313 49,184 7,573 1,093,070

Inner Mongolia

754,542 27,094 4,378 786,014

Liaoning 1,124,484 54,482 13,153 1,192,119

Jilin 671,527 40,382 9,152 721,061

Heilongjiang 943,949 48,172 9,759 1,001,880

Shanghai 711,506 29,247 14,510 755,263

Jiangsu 2,332,012 79,167 16,069 2,427,428

Zhejiang 1,578,375 35,084 9,512 1,622,971

Anhui 1,410,782 63,953 10,270 1,485,005

Fujian 958,845 22,044 4,796 985,685

Jiangxi 986,470 40,345 5,961 1,032,776

Shandong 2,281,973 157,609 23,819 2,463,401

Henan 2,125,998 106,176 14,584 2,246,758

Hubei 1,495,347 90,927 19,444 1,605,718

Hunan 1,431,264 61,967 13,080 1,506,311

These statistics demonstrate where Chinese universities are recruiting their own students. They are particularly key for undergraduate recruitment, showing that the bulk of domestic recruitment for higher education is not in the major metropolitan centres.

+ Sources of Chinese Higher Education Students by Province 2010.

Province / Municipality

Undergraduate / Junior College Diploma students

Masters students

Ph.D. students

Total Higher Education students

Guangdong 2,294,357 30,932 7,344 2,332,633

Guangxi 865,168 15,264 2,648 883,080

Hainan 193,754 3,539 553 197,846

Chongqing 635,036 21,612 4,010 660,658

Sichuan 1,547,166 50,986 11,398 1,609,550

Guizhou 599,984 11,292 1,827 613,103

Yunnan 752,373 13,823 3,161 769,357

Tibet 52,923 973 130 52,026

Sha’anxi 1,142,056 58,362 11,046 1,211,464

Gansu 652,273 19,279 4,011 675,563

Qinghai 134,004 2,667 608 137,279

Ningxia 189,083 4,262 899 194,244

Xinjiang 525,613 11,647 2,586 539,846

Total 32,209,760 1,279,466 258,950 33,748,176

Again, these statistics reflect the origin of students, not where they undertake higher education, which is covered in the regional reports below. Thinking like a Chinese higher education institution would require identifying opportunities, partnerships and channels to market into the major provinces covered in the report. For undergraduate recruitment, targeting students ‘at home’ is key to successful recruitment.

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Regional reports…

Beijing. Population:19.612 million (12.567 million holding residence permits) (2010) GDP: RMB1377.79 billion (2010) Students: 2.687 million (2010) Comprising: Kindergarten: 277,000 Primary: 686,000 Junior Middle School: 328,500 Secondary Specialist / Vocational: 219,000 Senior Middle School: 216,500 Junior College Diploma and Undergraduate: 735,000 Postgraduate: 225,000 University Entrance Exam articulation rates: 2000:75% 2006:72.88% 2010: 89.7% Year 7 students: 2001:166,174 2006: 90,722 2009: 105,930 Year 9 students: 2001: 149,442 2006: 124,250 2009: 101,811 Year 12 graduates (mainstream high school): 2001: 51,263 2006:78,037 2009:70,132 Undergraduates 2001: 340,284 2006: 554,702 2009: 577,154 Graduating higher education students (undergraduate/junior college diploma cohort) 2001: 55,831 2006: 132,488 2009: 152,336

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Regional reports…

Shanghai

Population: 23.019 million (14.042 million holding residence permits) (2010)

GDP: RMB 1687.242 billion (2010)

Students: 2.8182 million (2010)

Comprising:

Kindergarten: 400,300

Primary: 865,800

Junior Middle School: 464,850

Secondary Specialist / Vocational: 157,600

Senior Middle School: 208,250

Junior College Diploma and Undergraduate: 609,700

Postgraduate: 111,700

University Entrance Exam articulation rates:

2000:70%

2006:80.4%

2010:85%

Year 7 students:

2003:127,500

2006: 108,793

2009: 109,300

Year 9 students:

2003: 180,400

2006: 112,607

2009: 100,000

Year 12 graduates (mainstream high school):

2003:77,600

2006:121,900

2009:87,600

Undergraduates

2003: 378,500

2006: 466,300

2009: 512,800

Graduating higher education students (undergraduate/junior college diploma cohort)

2003: 71,200

2006: 110,500

2009: 126,900

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Regional reports…

Guangdong Population: 104.3 million (million holding residence permits) (2010) GDP: RMB4547.283 billion (2010) Students: 21.3953 million (2010) Comprising: Kindergarten: 2,772,300 Primary: 8,485,500 Junior Middle School: 5,001,000 Secondary Specialist / Vocational: 1,547,800 Senior Middle School: 2,089,500 Junior College Diploma/Undergraduate: 1,426,700 Postgraduate: 72,500 University Entrance Exam articulation rates: 2000: 65% 2006: 69.58% 2010: 78% Year 7 students: 2001: 1,426,843 2006: 1,706,870 2010: 1,663,700 Year 9 students: 2004: 1,314,000 2006: 1,425,900 2010: 1,534,700 Year 12 graduates (mainstream high school): 2004: 318,000 2006: 429,900 2010: 567,600 Undergraduates 2001: 381,926 2006: 1,008,577 2010: 1,426,624 Graduating higher education students (undergraduate/junior college diploma cohort) 2001: 62,000 2006: 196,000 2010: 334,200

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Regional reports…

Tianjin

Population: 12.28 million (9.8 million holding residence permits).

GDP: RMB750 billion (2009)


Comprising:

Kindergarten: 217, 886

Primary:505,895

Junior Middle School: 273,408



Junior College Diploma: 155,608

Undergraduate: 273, 616



2001:71.78%

2006:70.83%

2010:79%

Year 7 students:

2006: 104,243

2008: 84,245

2010: 83,891

Year 9 students:

2006: 124,325

2008: 98,490

2010: 93,464


2006: 69,891

2008: 75,230

2010: 65,951

Undergraduates

2006: 212,526

2008: 240,510

2010: 273,616


2006: 81,983

2008: 101,728

2010: 105,354

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Regional reports… Jiangsu Population: 76.54 million (2010)

GDP: RMB4.09 trillion (2010)


Comprising:


Primary: 3,987,000 (participation rate 100%)

Junior Middle School: 2,329,500 (participation rate 98.7%)

Secondary Specialist / Vocational: 1,020,400

Senior Middle School: 1,356,600

Junior College Diploma / Undergraduate: 1,649,400



2001:61.2%

2006:70.71%

2010: 77.9%

Year 7 students:

2006: 990,600

2008: 865,800

2010: 701,040

Year 9 students:

2006: 1,213,500

2008: 1,024,300

2010: 914,000


2006: 449,700

2008: 499,100

2010: 486,400

Undergraduates/Junior College:

2006: 1,306,200

2008: 1,572,600

2010: 1,649,400


2006: 257,300

2008: 380,900

2010: 478,900

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Regional reports… Hubei Population: 59.9 million (2005)


Students: 11,340,000 (2009)

Comprising:


Primary: 3,592,600

Junior Middle School: 2,263,400

Secondary Specialist / Vocational:


Junior College Diploma / Undergraduate: 1,400,000



2001:56.8%

2006:52.9%

2010: 69%

Year 7 students:

2006: NA

2008: 775,700

2010: NA

Year 9 students:

2006: NA

2008: 961,000

2010: NA


2006: 410,700

2008: 449,700

2010: 435,500


2006: 1,092,300

2008: 1,185,100

2010: 1,296,900


2001: 65,859

2006: 300,000

2010: 356,000

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Regional reports… Fujian Population: 36.3 million (2009)


Students: 8,366,167 (2009)

Comprising:

Kindergarten: 1,077,218

Primary: 2,397,594




Junior College Diploma: 269,471

Undergraduate: 336,813



2000:50%

2006:58%

2010: 80%

Year 7 students:

2006: 523,700

2008: 495,894

2010: 383,200

Year 9 students:

2006: 602,300

2008: 495,367

2010: 478,500


2006: 201,800

2008: 242,178

2010: 240,300


2006: 461,341

2008: 562,595

2010: 647,800


2006: 94,979

2008: 130,379

2010: 142,814

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Regional reports… Shandong Population:94 million (2009)


Students: 8,366,167 (2009)

Comprising:


Primary:6,292,000




Junior College Diploma / Undergraduate:1,631,000

Postgraduate:65,000


2006: 64.4%

2008: 65%

2010: 79.72%

Year 7 students:

2006: NA

2008: 1,080,000

2010: 1,113,000

Year 9 students:

2006: NA

2008: 1,080,000

2010: 1,022,000


2006: NA

2008: NA

2010: 547,000


2006: 1,338,000

2008: 1,534,000

2010: 1,631,000


2005: 180,932

2006: 221,985

2007: 309,493

2008: 375,417

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Regional reports… Zhejiang Population: 54.4269 million (42.6029 million holding residence permits) (2010)

GDP: RMB 2.7227 trillion (2010)


Comprising:


Primary: 3,333,300







2001: 68.3%

2006: 71%

2010: 83.8%

Year 7 students:

2006: 625,800

2008: 622,100

2010: 532,000

Year 9 students:

2006: 594,000

2008: 538,100

2010: 586,000


2006:292,000

2008:295,900

2010:273,700

Undergraduates and junior college diploma

2006: 720,000

2008: 832,200

2010: 884,900


2006: 163,000

2008: 203,200

2010: 233,700

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Regional reports… Liaoning Population: 43.746 million (2010)



Comprising:


Primary: 2,183,000

Junior Middle School:1,272,000

Secondary Specialist / Vocational: NA

Senior Middle School:715,000




2000: 75%

2006: 74.28%

2010: 87%

Year 7 students:

2006: 504,800

2008: 459,000

2010: 397,000

Year 9 students:

2006: 541,900

2008: 464,000

2010: 455,000


2006: 224,500

2008: 257,000

2010: 226,000

Undergraduates

2006: 720,500

2008: 820,000

2010: 880,000


2006: 155,000

2008: 202,000

2010: 220,000

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Regional reports… Heilongjiang Population: 38.312 million (2010)



Comprising:


Primary: 1,880,000







2000:30%

2006: 74.89%

2010: 90.77% * First Province to ever exceed 90% gaokao articulation.

Year 7 students:

2006: 422,000

2008: 390,000

2010: 363,000

Year 9 students:

2006: 537,000

2008: 447,000

2010: 405,000


2006: 182,000

2008: 204,000

2010: 196,000

Undergraduates

2006: 584,000

2008: 678,000

2010: 719,000


2006: 129,000

2008: 170,000

2010: 181,000

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Regional reports… Sichuan Population: 80.418 million (2010)

GDP: RMB 1.6898.6 trillion (2010)

Students: 17.923million (2010)

Comprising:

Kindergarten: NA

Primary: 5,921,000




Junior College Diploma and Undergraduate: 1,086,000



2006: 60%

2007: 53.53%

2010: 70%

Year 7 students:

2006: 1,262,356

2008: 1,251,700

2010: 1,116,200

Year 9 students:

2006: NA

2008: NA

2010: NA


2006: Not available

2008: NA

2010: NA

Undergraduates

2006: 861,000

2008: 991,000

2010: 1,086,000


2006: 173,000

2008: 248,000

2010: 279,000

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Regional reports… Chongqing

Population: 28.8462 million (million holding residence permits) (2010)



Comprising:

Kindergarten: NA

Primary: 1,999,400







2006: 60%

2007: 58%

2010: 78.55%

Year 7 students:

2006: 643,900

2008: 688,800

2010: 408,500

Year 9 students:

2006: 529,400

2008: 545,900

2010: 416,600


2006: 190,000

2008: 189,000

2010: 169,500

Undergraduates

2006: 376,100

2008: 450,000

2010: 522,700


2006: 76,500

2008: 99,700

2010: 122,800

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Regional reports… Sha’anxi




Comprising:


Primary: 2,610,400







2006:59.5%

2008:59.34%

2010:60.2%

Year 7 students:

2006: 696,400

2008: 615,300

2010: 493,400

Year 9 students:

2006: 700,900

2008: NA

2010: NA


2006: 277,400

2008: NA

2010: NA

Undergraduates

2006: 726,200

2008: 839,700

2010: 927,800


2006: 157,800

2008: 250,000

2010: 265,000

+

Regional reports… Hunan




Comprising:


Primary: 4,791,600







2000:50%

2006:48.9%

2008:51%

2010:81%

Year 7 students:

2006: NA

2008: 719,100

2010: 734,400

Year 9 students:

2006: NA

2008: 774,200

2010: 697,500


2006: NA

2008: 430,000

2010: 361,800

Undergraduates

2006: 831,000

2008: 952,300

2010: 1,047,200


2006: 208,369

2008: 244,700

2010: 276,100

+

Regional reports… Henan Population: 94.023567 million (million holding residence permits) (2010)



Comprising:

Kindergarten: NA

Primary: 10,705,300







2006: 58.97%

2008: 42%

2010: 64.6%

Year 7 students:

2006: 1,661,900

2008: 1,651,300

2010: 1,588,100

Year 9 students:

2006: 1,880,600

2008: 1,830,700

2010: 1,549,200


2006: 573,600

2008: 749,800

2010: 704,300

Undergraduates

2006: 974,100

2008: 1,250,200

2010: 1,456,700


2006: 202,100

2008: 302,500

2010: 382,500

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