china unicom (762 hk) buy · 2017-01-10 · china unicom 762 hk buy 9.27 11.90 china telecom 728 hk...
TRANSCRIPT
January 10, 2017
Tele
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THIS REPORT HAS BEEN PREPARED BY KIM ENG SECURITIES (HK) LTD SEE PAGE 12 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
Company Ticker Rating
Current Price (HKD)
Target Price (HKD)
Tencent 700 HK Not Rated 195.80 NA
China Unicom 762 HK BUY 9.27 11.90
China Telecom 728 HK BUY 3.70 5.06
China Mobile 941 HK BUY 84.00 117.00
Mitchell Kim [email protected] (852) 2268 0634
Jeffrey Kwong [email protected] (852) 2268 0635
China Unicom (762 HK)
No Pain, No Gain
FY16 was dismal, but Unicom is loaded to go in 2017 We reiterate our BUY on the stock. We hosted China Unicom’s NDR in Malaysia last week where the company held meetings with 20+ investors. The key focus of the discussions was on the potential for a turnaround in the operations of the company in 2017. While the market may become disappointed if the company posts losses in 4Q16, as we now forecast, we believe investors that look ahead to an operational turnaround in 2017 will be rewarded, rather than those who look backward at the dismal 2016. We have lowered our 2016 net profit estimate by 80% and slightly raised 2017/18, but our target price is unchanged as we are more positive on the long-term outlook.
Handset and network disadvantages addressed Unicom looks to be more competitive now as 70-80% of new handsets sold in the market in 4Q16 were 6 modes; this allows non-Unicom subscribers to consider Unicom as a second SIM option (Subscriber Identity Module). Further, Unicom’s network coverage is at par or better than its competitors in the 139 key cities in China upon completing the upgrade in October, according to management.
Stronger distribution with Internet cooperation Cooperation with Internet partners helps Unicom to: 1) lower commission costs as the company relies less on the traditional 3rd party dealers; 2) promote data SIMs that includes unlimited data access to specific mobile applications, such as unlimited data for all Tencent apps for RMB19/mo; and 3) provide stronger rationale for “mixed ownership” potential.
BUY now for the best turnaround story in 2017 With the bulk of the 4G network upgrade now done, management believes Unicom will be much more competitive in 2017. Profitability should improve as 4G ARPU makes greater contributions to growth, and network and marketing cost acceleration slows.
Share Price HKD 9.27
12m Price Target HKD 11.90 (+28%)
Previous Price Target HKD 11.90
BUY
Company Description
Statistics52w high/low (HKD)3m avg turnover (USDm)Free float (%)Issued shares (m)Market capitalisation
Major shareholders:40.6%33.8%2.5%
23,947
63.1
China Unicom engages in the provision of cellular andfixed-line voice, broadband and other informationcommunications technology services.
China United Network Communications Ltd. China State-Owned Assets Supervision & A Telefonica SA
10.24/7.77
23.2
HKD222.0BUSD28.6B
Price Performance
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China Unicom - (LHS, HKD) China Unicom / Hang Seng Index - (RHS, %)
-1M -3M -12MAbsolute (%) (4) (1) 5
Relative to index (%) (4) 4 (5)
Source: FactSet
FYE Dec (CNY m) FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E
Revenue 284,681 277,049 276,982 290,148 299,384EBITDA 92,771 87,502 80,096 88,615 95,671Core net profit 12,055 10,562 629 8,536 13,406Core EPS (CNY) 0.51 0.44 0.03 0.36 0.56Core EPS growth (%) 14.9 (12.7) (94.0) 1,256.7 57.0Net DPS (CNY) 0.20 0.17 0.01 0.14 0.22Core P/E (x) 16.4 18.8 315.5 23.3 14.8P/BV (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8Net dividend yield (%) 2.4 2.1 0.1 1.7 2.6ROAE (%) 5.4 4.6 0.3 3.7 5.6ROAA (%) 2.2 1.8 0.1 1.4 2.1EV/EBITDA (x) 3.3 3.6 4.2 3.7 3.3Net gearing (%) (incl perps) 48.9 54.1 60.2 55.4 47.7Consensus net profit - - 2,142 6,923 10,715MKE vs. Consensus (%) - - (70.6) 23.3 25.1
January 10, 2017 2
China Unicom
1. Investment Summary: BUY
In general, we are positive on the Chinese telcos because we believe the China telecom market growth is attractive considering the upside from the current low data usage per subscriber level. Out of the three Chinese telco stocks we cover, all of which we rate BUY, we prefer Unicom as we roll over to 2017. We remain fascinated by Unicom’s potential turnaround story because we believe it would be a major catalyst for the stock. While 2016 results will likely prove Unicom was the weakest operational performer among the three telco operators, we believe the risk / reward favors Unicom over China Mobile (941 HK, BUY) and China Telecom (728 HK, BUY). The main reason supporting our view is our forecast that Unicom’s operational and profit rebound will likely be much more pronounced than its competitors’. Following the recent Unicom NDR (non-deal roadshow) we hosted, we maintain our view that the operational turnaround is underway and the company will show measurable improvements in 2017, even though we are now factoring in a greater net profit decline for 2016E. However, we recommend investors remain calm despite our anticipation of a possible net loss in 4Q16, as we believe the accelerated network upgrade spending in 2016 will pave the way for a significantly better year in 2017. We recommend investors BUY the stock for 28% upside to our TP. The current stock price performance reminds us of the days when Unicom shares underperformed the HSI in the early 3G launch years of 2009 to 2010 before the share price gained more than 50% in 2011 following the operational turnaround and growing 3G demand. We believe we are at a similar stage now where the shares are languishing because net profit is under pressure, primarily due to the network upgrade cost (and some organizational restructuring general administration costs). Because we believe an operational turnaround is imminent, we remain a buyer of the stock. While the magnitude of the net profit decline in 2016 is more than we anticipated earlier in 2016, we remain patient as we believe the market will focus on the improvements in 2017 instead of focusing on the profit deterioration in 2016. We estimate Unicom’s revenue and net profit growth for 2017 will be 6% and 167%, respectively, on the back of 4G ARPU contribution and network upgrade cost deceleration.
January 10, 2017 3
China Unicom
Fig 1: China Unicom Historical Share Price
Source: Bloomberg
1.1 More competitive with Internet company cooperation Management understands the challenges of competing for data subscribers without a full 4G network. For this reason, Chairman Wang sacrificed margins in 2016 to ensure that Unicom’s 4G offering was at par or even better than its competitors in certain areas. However, the company is trying to leverage its new relationship with Internet platforms to seek incremental revenues from those mobile subscribers who are not Unicom’s subscribers. Unicom is exploring an incremental 2nd SIM slot in mobile phones as 70-80% of the new phones in the market now have 2 SIM slots. The second SIM is easier to penetrate as consumers can try Unicom’s enhanced network without having to cancel their primary subscription. Unicom has been selling low cost or even unlimited data on selected mobile applications recently, which is ideal as a 2nd SIM. For example:
• Tencent “King Card” (腾讯大王卡): RMB19/mo for unlimited data on
all Tencent (700 HK, Not-rated) affiliated websites, applications and products. RMB1/day for 500MB on any other non-Tencent connections.
• Alibaba “Ant Bao Card” (蚂蚁宝卡): RMB36/mo for 2GB data and
100min voice. RMB10/GB after first 2GB, one of the cheapest in the market right now. Subscribers can earn 10MB data for every purchase made through Alipay, with a maximum of 100MB free.
January 10, 2017 4
China Unicom
Fig 2: Tencent “King Card” advertisement
Source: ithome.com
Fig 3: Alibaba “Ant Bao Card” advertisement
Source: ithome.com
We believe there are several benefits from this approach:
1. Leveraging the user base of Internet companies Unicom can leverage the large existing user base of popular mobile apps of these internet companies through their cooperation. For example, WeChat has 800m MAU, while Alipay has 450m annual active users. Since these users will be communicating with WeChat or paying through Alipay regardless of the telecom operator they use, we believe it is likely that subscribers will switch their 2nd SIMs to Unicom at some point during the month attracted by the low cost data.
January 10, 2017 5
China Unicom
2. Unicom can bypass third party distribution channels Traditional third party sellers are unreliable as they often promote the telecom operator that provides them the highest commission. This creates a highly competitive and costly commission based environment. Given the limited resources Unicom has, it is not the optimal choice for distribution. Cooperation with internet companies is commission free, and even more convenient and effective. For example, WeChat users can simply apply for Tencent’s “King Card” within the app, and Unicom will handle the logistics accordingly.
1.2 Turnaround not visible until 2017, but it is on its way Unicom management were optimistic about the potential turnaround in 2017, but had to accelerate network upgrades and general administration restructuring to raise the company’s competitiveness during 2016. We interpreted this as meaning higher spending in 4Q16 than we originally forecast. Accordingly, we have reflected the likelihood of higher expenses in 4Q16, leading to substantially lower net profit estimate for the full year 2016 and a net loss in 4Q16 (note that Unicom would have posted losses in 4Q15 as well if it wasn’t for gains booked for the tower transfer). Management believes Unicom is now in position to overcome challenges related to 4G network coverage and proliferation of six mode 4G handsets. The challenges in 2016 were as follows:
• Difficult to promote 6 modes mobile phones: It took longer than expected for the market to adopt 6 modes phones, because China Mobile actively promoted 3 mode and 5 mode TD LTE only handsets to prohibit or limit its customers from switching to Unicom and Telecom’s FDD-LTE network. 6 modes phone are important to Unicom’s turnaround plan also because the majority of them have 2 SIM slots. We note that 70-80% of the handsets sold in the market in 4Q16 were 6 mode handsets.
• Network upgrade delay: Network upgrades were not fully completed until October. Unicom’s network is now on par or even better than China Mobile’s in the 139 key cities, according to the company. This is part of Unicom’s focus strategy to prioritize most of its resources to these cities only. For other regions, Unicom plans to reduce investments and costs though cooperation with China Telecom.
1.3 Mixed ownership potential Because Unicom’s mixed ownership status is not well understood by the market, many investors asked how mixed ownership would affect the operations of Unicom. Management refrained from providing much detail as the company is still in talks with government. We believe that the potential benefits of mixed ownership could be flexibility to use share based compensation, modelling after Internet companies, to address the weaker competitiveness of Unicom to attract talent in the telecom management area, including marketing and engineering. This could be a catalyst depending on the outcome, although we believe this is not priced-in because it is difficult to conceptualize the benefits.
January 10, 2017 6
China Unicom
Fig 4: Relatively low data usage per sub suggest potential demand upside
Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng
Note: China’s 900MB per month per sub is based on 4G handset users.
Fig 5: China Unicom’s share price from 2009 to 2010
Source: Factset
Fig 6: China Unicom’s price performance against HSI from 2009 to 2010
Source: Factset, Maybank Kim Eng
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January 10, 2017 7
China Unicom
2. 4Q and year ahead outlook
Management is confident that 2017 will be the turnaround year for the company and expects to see quantifiable results as all upgrades are now completed.
• Management expects revenue to meet the industry average in 2017. This is in line with our estimates.
• A large amount of 4G upgrades were previously coming from 3G subscribers and management said it will be spending more on upgrading 2G subscribers to ease the burden on its 2G network.
• We believe network expenses will remain high for 4G in 4Q16, as Unicom was finalizing its upgrades to be ready for the 2017 roll out. For the year ahead, while Unicom’s lease fees should gradually rise as it expands its network, management expects to see cost savings through a higher co-tenancy ratio in its tower company and through the cooperation with China Telecom.
• While Unicom will be advertising its now comparable 4G services
to the market, management believes that there will be lower commission expenses as they switch to online channels.
3. Estimate changes
Our target price of HKD11.9 is based on a SOTP analysis using DCF for the core operation and the proportional tower value. We are using a WACC of 8.3%, a cost of equity of 10.7%, and a terminal growth of 1%. We significantly lowered our 2016 net profit estimate, but slightly raised 2017 and 2018 (Fig. 7). For 2016, we reflect higher expenses related to network upgrades, marketing and G&A. For 2017 and 2018, we factored in cost savings mentioned above and lower marketing costs resulting from the cooperation with Internet companies.
Fig 7: Estimate changes
Old Forecast New Forecast % Change (CNY m) 2016E 2017E 2018E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2016E 2017E 2018E Operating revenue 275,547 289,830 299,053 276,982 290,148 299,384 1% 0% 0% Service Revenue 241,508 254,775 264,132 242,943 255,094 264,462 1% 0% 0% Sale of telecom products 34,039 35,054 34,921 34,039 35,054 34,921 0% 0% 0%
EBIT 5,739 12,222 18,041 4,173 12,846 18,412 (27%) 5% 2% Margin 2% 5% 7% 2% 5% 7%
EBITDA 81,662 87,991 95,284 80,096 88,615 95,671 (2%) 1% 0% Margin 34% 35% 36% 33% 35% 36%
Net profit 3,124 8,352 13,045 629 8,536 13,406 (80%) 2% 3% Margin 1% 3% 4% 0% 3% 4%
Source: Maybank Kim Eng
January 10, 2017 8
China Unicom
Value Proposition
Best tower-asset play given its smaller market cap. Towers could be worth 30% of Unicom’s market cap when monetized at the IPO, possibly in 2017.
Has been losing higher value subscribers back to CM due to the lack of 4G service coverage. Company more aggressively rolled out its 4G service in 2016.
CU is currently generating insufficient returns due to heavy capex. CU’s RoIC will bottom out in 2016 and track upwards in 2017 as capex declines.
Typically generates FCF in the low to mid-single digits. Its gearing ratio is high, but proceeds from the sale of towers in 2017 could help the company deleverage.
Mobile subscriber data
Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng Note: 4G Penetration means the ratio of 4G to total subscribers
Price Drivers
Historical share price trend
Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng
1. Took market share from other players with its strong
positioning in 3G. 2. Other players rolled out 3G services successfully and
stabilised. 3. Concerns over profitability with the implementation of
VAT. Also, its competitor, China Mobile (CM), rolled out 4G, which made CU’s 3G services less competitive.
4. Unicom received a 4G licence one year after CM drove up expectations for a level playing field.
5. General market concerns over China’s slowdown and as benefits of tower spin-off remained unclear.
Financial Metrics
Operating margins could be under pressure near-term from rising costs of leasing towers. However, quicker 4G expansion could improve RoIC in the long-term.
Subscriber growth should be back on track after the subscriber write-off in February. We estimate ARPU to rise as the subscriber mix favors 4G.
Capex savings in the next three years should result from base-station sharing arrangements with China Telecom and tower-leasing from TowerCo. FCF expected to improve.
Company pays slightly below a 2% dividend yield starting in FY17E and higher in FY18E.
FCF yield and RoIC
Source: Company data, Maybank Kim Eng
Swing Factors
Upside
Higher than expected value in TowerCo. Better than expected broadband subscriber growth. Cooperation with China Telecom, leading to cost savings
and improving earnings.
Downside
Margins could be squeezed by higher than expected tower-leasing fees.
Further push for rollover of subscribers’ underused data by the Chinese government could impinge on earnings growth.
CNY devaluation could jack up interest payments on foreign currency debt.
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China Unicom - (LHS, HKD)
China Unicom / MSCI AC Asia ex JP - (RHS, %)
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January 10, 2017 9
China Unicom
FYE 31 Dec FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18EKey MetricsP/E (reported) (x) 18.0 21.0 nm 23.3 14.8Core P/E (x) 16.4 18.8 315.5 23.3 14.8P/BV (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8P/NTA (x) 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8Net dividend yield (%) 2.4 2.1 0.1 1.7 2.6FCF yield (%) 9.4 nm nm 3.9 8.8EV/EBITDA (x) 3.3 3.6 4.2 3.7 3.3EV/EBIT (x) 16.4 29.2 80.4 25.6 17.2
INCOME STATEMENT (CNY m)Revenue 284,681 277,049 276,982 290,148 299,384EBITDA 92,771 87,502 80,096 88,615 95,671EBIT 18,903 10,764 4,173 12,846 18,412Net interest income /(exp) (4,334) (6,496) (4,380) (5,126) (4,920)Other pretax income 1,362 9,767 1,446 3,662 4,383Pretax profit 15,931 14,035 1,239 11,382 17,875Income tax (3,876) (3,473) (610) (2,845) (4,469)Reported net profit 12,055 10,562 629 8,536 13,406Core net profit 12,055 10,562 629 8,536 13,406Preferred Dividends 0 0 0 0 0
BALANCE SHEET (CNY m)Cash & Short Term Investments 25,364 21,957 7,461 13,759 27,088Accounts receivable 14,671 14,957 15,430 16,365 16,971Inventory 4,378 3,946 3,216 3,311 3,299Reinsurance assets 0 0 0 0 0Property, Plant & Equip (net) 438,321 454,631 453,708 454,467 448,612Intangible assets 2,771 2,771 2,771 2,771 2,771Investment in Associates & JVs 3,037 32,975 34,196 34,949 35,488Other assets 56,530 79,109 93,135 96,203 99,028Total assets 545,072 610,346 609,917 621,826 633,258ST interest bearing debt 112,694 106,380 103,881 103,881 103,881Accounts payable 120,371 167,396 173,877 177,982 179,906Insurance contract liabilities 0 0 0 0 0LT interest bearing debt 23,880 40,676 40,676 40,676 40,676Other liabilities 60,586 64,678 63,709 63,219 62,611Total Liabilities 317,531 379,130 382,143 385,758 387,074Shareholders Equity 227,541 231,216 227,774 236,068 246,184Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 0Total shareholder equity 227,541 231,216 227,774 236,068 246,184Perpetual securities 0 0 0 0 0Total liabilities and equity 545,072 610,346 609,917 621,826 633,258
CASH FLOW (CNY m)Pretax profit 15,931 14,035 1,239 11,382 17,875Depreciation & amortisation 73,868 76,738 75,923 75,769 77,259Adj net interest (income)/exp 3,830 6,521 4,380 5,126 4,920Change in working capital (1,329) (3,340) (5,775) (135) (1,743)Cash taxes paid (4,620) (2,244) (610) (2,845) (4,469)Other operating cash flow 4,762 (2,785) 0 0 0Cash flow from operations 92,442 88,925 75,157 89,296 93,842Capex (69,586) (88,465) (75,000) (76,528) (71,405)Free cash flow 18,508 (4,164) (4,223) 7,642 17,518Dividends paid (3,677) (4,643) (4,071) (243) (3,290)Equity raised / (purchased) 0 0 0 0 0Perpetual securities 0 0 0 0 0Change in Debt (5,296) 21,078 (2,499) 0 0Perpetual securities distribution 0 0 0 0 0Other invest/financing cash flow (10,081) (6,476) (8,083) (6,228) (5,818)Effect of exch rate changes 0 73 0 0 0Net cash flow 3,802 10,492 (14,496) 6,298 13,329
January 10, 2017 10
China Unicom
FYE 31 Dec FY14A FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18EKey RatiosGrowth ratios (%)Revenue growth (3.5) (2.7) (0.0) 4.8 3.2EBITDA growth 10.5 (5.7) (8.5) 10.6 8.0EBIT growth 19.9 (43.1) (61.2) 207.8 43.3Pretax growth 16.2 (11.9) (91.2) 818.5 57.0Reported net profit growth 15.8 (12.4) (94.0) 1,256.7 57.0Core net profit growth 15.8 (12.4) (94.0) 1,256.7 57.0
Profitability ratios (%)EBITDA margin 32.6 31.6 28.9 30.5 32.0EBIT margin 6.6 3.9 1.5 4.4 6.1Pretax profit margin 5.6 5.1 0.4 3.9 6.0Payout ratio 39.7 38.5 38.5 38.5 38.5
DuPont analysisNet profit margin (%) 4.2 3.8 0.2 2.9 4.5Revenue/Assets (x) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5Assets/Equity (x) 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6ROAE (%) 5.4 4.6 0.3 3.7 5.6ROAA (%) 2.2 1.8 0.1 1.4 2.1
Liquidity & EfficiencyCash conversion cycle (863.4) nm nm nm nmDays receivable outstanding 18.7 19.2 19.7 19.7 20.0Days inventory outstanding 41.1 34.0 35.4 31.3 31.8Days payables outstanding 923.2 nm nm nm nmDividend cover (x) 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6Current ratio (x) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2
Leverage & Expense AnalysisAsset/Liability (x) 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6Net gearing (%) (incl perps) 48.9 54.1 60.2 55.4 47.7Net gearing (%) (excl. perps) 48.9 54.1 60.2 55.4 47.7Net interest cover (x) 4.4 1.7 1.0 2.5 3.7Debt/EBITDA (x) 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.5Capex/revenue (%) 24.4 31.9 27.1 26.4 23.9Net debt/ (net cash) 111,210.0 125,099.0 137,095.7 130,797.6 117,468.5Source: Company; Maybank
January 10, 2017 11
China Unicom
Research Offices
REGIONAL
Sadiq CURRIMBHOY Regional Head, Research & Economics (65) 6231 5836 [email protected]
WONG Chew Hann, CA Regional Head of Institutional Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected]
ONG Seng Yeow Regional Head of Retail Research (65) 6231 5839 [email protected]
TAN Sin Mui Director of Research (65) 6231 5849 [email protected]
ECONOMICS
Suhaimi ILIAS Chief Economist Singapore | Malaysia (603) 2297 8682 [email protected]
Tim LEELAHAPHAN Thailand (66) 2658 6300 ext 1420 [email protected]
JUNIMAN Chief Economist, BII Indonesia (62) 21 29228888 ext 29682 [email protected]
STRATEGY
Sadiq CURRIMBHOY Global Strategist (65) 6231 5836 [email protected]
Willie CHAN Hong Kong / Regional (852) 2268 0631 [email protected]
MALAYSIA
WONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected] • Strategy
Desmond CH’NG, ACA (603) 2297 8680 [email protected] • Banking & Finance
LIAW Thong Jung (603) 2297 8688 [email protected] • Oil & Gas Services- Regional
ONG Chee Ting, CA (603) 2297 8678 [email protected] • Plantations - Regional
Mohshin AZIZ (603) 2297 8692 [email protected] • Aviation - Regional • Petrochem
YIN Shao Yang, CPA (603) 2297 8916 [email protected] • Gaming – Regional • Media
TAN Chi Wei, CFA (603) 2297 8690 [email protected] • Power • Telcos
WONG Wei Sum, CFA (603) 2297 8679 [email protected] • Property
LEE Yen Ling (603) 2297 8691 [email protected] • Building Materials • Glove • Ports • Shipping
Ivan YAP (603) 2297 8612 [email protected] • Automotive • Semiconductor • Technology
Kevin WONG (603) 2082 6824 [email protected] • REITs • Consumer Discretionary
LIEW Wei Han (603) 2297 8676 [email protected] • Consumer Staples
Tee Sze Chiah Head of Retail Research (603) 2297 6858 [email protected]
HONG KONG / CHINA
Howard WONG Head of Research (852) 2268 0648 [email protected] • Strategy • Oil & Gas - Regional
Benjamin HO (852) 2268 0632 [email protected] • Consumer & Auto
Christopher WONG (852)2268 0652 [email protected] • HK & China Properties
Jacqueline KO, CFA (852) 2268 0633 [email protected] • Consumer Staples & Durables
Ka Leong LO, CFA (852) 2268 0630 [email protected] • Consumer Discretionary & Auto
Mitchell KIM (852) 2268 0634 [email protected] • Internet & Telcos
Ning MA (852) 2268 0672 [email protected] • Insurance
Ricky NG, CFA (852) 2268 0689 [email protected] • Regional Renewables • HK & China Properties
Sonija LI, CFA, FRM (852) 2268 0641 [email protected] • Gaming
Stefan CHANG, CFA (852) 2268 0675 [email protected] • Technology – Regional
INDIA
Jigar SHAH Head of Research (91) 22 6623 2632 [email protected] • Strategy • Oil & Gas • Automobile • Cement
Vishal MODI (91) 22 6623 2607 [email protected] • Banking & Financials
Neerav DALAL (91) 22 6623 2606 [email protected] • Software Technology • Telcos
SINGAPORE
Neel SINHA Head of Research (65) 6231 5838 [email protected] • Strategy • SMID Caps – Regional
Gregory YAP (65) 6231 5848 [email protected] • SMID Caps • Technology & Manufacturing • Telcos
Derrick HENG, CFA (65) 6231 5843 [email protected] • Transport • Property • REITs (Office)
John CHEONG, CFA (65) 6231 5845 [email protected] • Small & Mid Caps • Healthcare
Ng Li Hiang (65) 6231 5840 [email protected] • Banks
INDONESIA
Isnaputra ISKANDAR Head of Research (62) 21 8066 8680 [email protected] • Strategy • Metals & Mining • Cement
Rahmi MARINA (62) 21 8066 8689 [email protected] • Banking & Finance
Aurellia SETIABUDI (62) 21 8066 8691 [email protected] • Property
Pandu ANUGRAH (62) 21 8066 8688 [email protected] • Infra • Construction • Transport• Telcos
Janni ASMAN (62) 21 8066 8687 [email protected] • Cigarette • Healthcare • Retail
Adhi TASMIN (62) 21 8066 8694 [email protected] • Plantations
Anthony LUKMAWIJAYA (62) 21 8066 8690 [email protected] • Aviation
PHILIPPINES Michael BENGSON Head of Research (63) 2 849 8840 [email protected] • Strategy • Utilities • Conglomerates • Telcos Lovell SARREAL (63) 2 849 8841 [email protected] • Consumer • Media • Cement
Rommel RODRIGO (63) 2 849 8839 [email protected] • Conglomerates • Property • Gaming • Ports/ Logistics
Katherine TAN (63) 2 849 8843 [email protected] • Banks • Construction
THAILAND
Maria LAPIZ Head of Institutional Research Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext 1399 [email protected] • Strategy • Consumer • Materials • Ind. Estates
Sittichai DUANGRATTANACHAYA (66) 2658 6300 ext 1393 [email protected] • Services Sector • Transport
Yupapan POLPORNPRASERT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1395 [email protected] • Oil & Gas
Tanawat RUENBANTERNG (66) 2658 6300 ext 1394 [email protected] • Banks & Diversified Financials
Vorapoj HONGPINYO (66) 2658 6300 ext 1392 [email protected] • Real Estate & Contractors
Sukit UDOMSIRIKUL Head of Retail Research (66) 2658 6300 ext 5090 [email protected]
Mayuree CHOWVIKRAN (66) 2658 6300 ext 1440 [email protected] • Strategy
Padon VANNARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1450 [email protected] • Strategy
Surachai PRAMUALCHAROENKIT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1470 [email protected] • Auto • Conmat • Contractor • Steel
Suttatip PEERASUB (66) 2658 6300 ext 1430 [email protected] • Media • Commerce
Sutthichai KUMWORACHAI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1400 [email protected] • Energy • Petrochem
Termporn TANTIVIVAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1520 [email protected] • Property
Jaroonpan WATTANAWONG (66) 2658 6300 ext 1404 [email protected] • Transportation • Small cap
VIETNAM
LE Hong Lien, ACCA Head of Institutional Research (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8181 [email protected] • Strategy • Consumer • Diversified • Utilities
THAI Quang Trung, CFA, Deputy Manager, Institutional Research (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8180 [email protected] • Real Estate • Construction • Materials
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8082 [email protected] • Oil & Gas
NGUYEN Thi Ngan Tuyen, Head of Retail Research (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8081 [email protected] • Food & Beverage • Oil&Gas • Banking
TRINH Thi Ngoc Diep (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8208 [email protected] • Technology • Utilities • Construction
PHAM Nhat Bich (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8083 [email protected] • Consumer • Manufacturing • Fishery
NGUYEN Thi Sony Tra Mi (84) 8 44 555 888 x 8084 [email protected] • Port operation • Pharmaceutical • Food & Beverage
TRUONG Quang Binh (84) 4 44 555 888 x 8087 [email protected] • Rubber plantation • Tyres and Tubes • Oil&Gas
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APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES
DISCLAIMERS This research report is prepared for general circulation and for information purposes only and under no circumstances should it be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities referred to herein. Investors should note that values of such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s price or value may rise or fall. Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from the relevant jurisdiction’s stock exchange in the equity analysis. Accordingly, investors’ returns may be less than the original sum invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad, its subsidiary and affiliates (collectively, “MKE”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by MKE and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, MKE and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees (collectively, “Representatives”) shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Any information, opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.
This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward-looking statements. MKE expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
MKE and its officers, directors and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this report, may, to the extent permitted by law, from time to time participate or invest in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities mentioned in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuers, and/or have a position or holding, or other material interest, or effect transactions, in such securities or options thereon, or other investments related thereto. In addition, it may make markets in the securities mentioned in the material presented in this report. One or more directors, officers and/or employees of MKE may be a director of the issuers of the securities mentioned in this report to the extent permitted by law.
This report is prepared for the use of MKE’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of MKE and MKE and its Representatives accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Without prejudice to the foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply based on geographical location of the person or entity receiving this report.
Malaysia Opinions or recommendations contained herein are in the form of technical ratings and fundamental ratings. Technical ratings may differ from fundamental ratings as technical valuations apply different methodologies and are purely based on price and volume-related information extracted from Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad in the equity analysis.
Singapore This report has been produced as of the date hereof and the information herein may be subject to change. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. (“Maybank KERPL”) in Singapore has no obligation to update such information for any recipient. For distribution in Singapore, recipients of this report are to contact Maybank KERPL in Singapore in respect of any matters arising from, or in connection with, this report. If the recipient of this report is not an accredited investor, expert investor or institutional investor (as defined under Section 4A of the Singapore Securities and Futures Act), Maybank KERPL shall be legally liable for the contents of this report, with such liability being limited to the extent (if any) as permitted by law.
Thailand Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited. Maybank Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited (“MBKET”) accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
Due to different characteristics, objectives and strategies of institutional and retail investors, the research reports of MBKET Institutional and Retail Research Department may differ in either recommendation or target price, or both. MBKET Retail Research is intended for retail investors (http://kelive.maybank-ke.co.th) while Maybank Kim Eng Institutional Research is intended only for institutional investors based outside Thailand only.
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the market for Alternative Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on inside information. The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey may be changed after that date. MBKET does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
The disclosure of the Anti-Corruption Progress Indicators of a listed company on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which is assessed by Thaipat Institute, is made in order to comply with the policy and sustainable development plan for the listed companies of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Thaipat Institute made this assessment based on the information received from the listed company, as stipulated in the form for the assessment of Anti-corruption which refers to the Annual Registration Statement (Form 56-1), Annual Report (Form 56-2), or other relevant documents or reports of such listed company. The assessment result is therefore made from the perspective of Thaipat Institute that is a third party. It is not an assessment of operation and is not based on any inside information. Since this assessment is only the assessment result as of the date appearing in the assessment result, it may be changed after that date or when there is any change to the relevant information. Nevertheless, MBKET does not confirm, verify, or certify the accuracy and completeness of the assessment result.
US This third-party research report is distributed in the United States (“US”) to Major US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc (“Maybank KESUSA”), a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended). All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Maybank KESUSA in the US shall be borne by Maybank KESUSA. This report is not directed at you if MKE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Maybank KESUSA is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant legislation and regulations. All U.S. persons receiving and/or accessing this report and wishing to effect transactions in any security mentioned within must do so with: Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc. 777 Third Avenue 21st Floor New York, New York 1- (212) 688-8886 and not with, the issuer of this report.
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Disclosure of Interest Malaysia: MKE and its Representatives may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities referred to herein and may further act as market maker or may have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking services, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies.
Singapore: As of 10 January 2017, Maybank KERPL and the covering analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
Thailand: MBKET may have a business relationship with or may possibly be an issuer of derivative warrants on the securities /companies mentioned in the research report. Therefore, Investors should exercise their own judgment before making any investment decisions. MBKET, its associates, directors, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have interests and/or underwriting commitments in the securities mentioned in this report.
Hong Kong: KESHK may have financial interests in relation to an issuer or a new listing applicant referred to as defined by the requirements under Paragraph 16.5(a) of the Hong Kong Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the Securities and Futures Commission.
As of 10 January 2017, KESHK and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report.
MKE may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or currently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided within the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment and may receive compensation for the services provided from the companies covered in this report.
OTHERS Analyst Certification of Independence The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
Reminder Structured securities are complex instruments, typically involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sale only to sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved. The market value of any structured security may be affected by changes in economic, financial and political factors (including, but not limited to, spot and forward interest and exchange rates), time to maturity, market conditions and volatility and the credit quality of any issuer or reference issuer. Any investor interested in purchasing a structured product should conduct its own analysis of the product and consult with its own professional advisers as to the risks involved in making such a purchase.
No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of MKE.
UK This document is being distributed by Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd (“Maybank KESL”) which is authorized and regulated, by the Financial Conduct Authority and is for Informational Purposes only. This document is not intended for distribution to anyone defined as a Retail Client under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 within the UK. Any inclusion of a third party link is for the recipients convenience only, and that the firm does not take any responsibility for its comments or accuracy, and that access to such links is at the individuals own risk. Nothing in this report should be considered as constituting legal, accounting or tax advice, and that for accurate guidance recipients should consult with their own independent tax advisers.
DISCLOSURES Legal Entities Disclosures Malaysia: This report is issued and distributed in Malaysia by Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (15938- H) which is a Participating Organization of Bursa Malaysia Berhad and a holder of Capital Markets and Services License issued by the Securities Commission in Malaysia. Singapore: This report is distributed in Singapore by Maybank KERPL (Co. Reg No 198700034E) which is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Indonesia: PT Maybank Kim Eng Securities (“PTMKES”) (Reg. No. KEP-251/PM/1992) is a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Financial Services Authority (Indonesia). Thailand: MBKET (Reg. No.0107545000314) is a member of the Stock Exchange of Thailand and is regulated by the Ministry of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission. Philippines: Maybank ATRKES (Reg. No.01-2004-00019) is a member of the Philippines Stock Exchange and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Vietnam: Maybank Kim Eng Securities Limited (License Number: 117/GP-UBCK) is licensed under the State Securities Commission of Vietnam. Hong Kong: KESHK (Central Entity No AAD284) is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission. India: Kim Eng Securities India Private Limited (“KESI”) is a participant of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited and the Bombay Stock Exchange and is regulated by Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) (Reg. No. INZ000010538). KESI is also registered with SEBI as Category 1 Merchant Banker (Reg. No. INM 000011708) and as Research Analyst (Reg No: INH000000057) US: Maybank KESUSA is a member of/ and is authorized and regulated by the FINRA – Broker ID 27861. UK: Maybank KESL (Reg No 2377538) is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
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Historical recommendations and target price: China Unicom (762 HK)
Definition of Ratings
Maybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system BUY Return is expected to be above 10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) HOLD Return is expected to be between - 10% to +10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends) SELL Return is expected to be below -10% in the next 12 months (excluding dividends)
Applicability of Ratings
The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17
China Unicom
10 Jul Sell : HK$11.7
24 Aug Hold : HK$11.7
23 Oct Buy : HK$13.0
11 Mar Buy : HK$12.7
18 Aug Buy : HK$12.0
24 Oct Buy : HK$11.9
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Malaysia Maybank Investment Bank Berhad (A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad) 33rd Floor, Menara Maybank, 100 Jalan Tun Perak, 50050 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2059 1888; Fax: (603) 2078 4194
Singapore Maybank Kim Eng Securities Pte Ltd Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd 50 North Canal Road Singapore 059304 Tel: (65) 6336 9090
London Maybank Kim Eng Securities (London) Ltd PNB House 77 Queen Victoria Street London EC4V 4AY, UK Tel: (44) 20 7332 0221 Fax: (44) 20 7332 0302
New York Maybank Kim Eng Securities USA Inc 777 Third Avenue, 21st Floor New York, NY 10017, U.S.A. Tel: (212) 688 8886 Fax: (212) 688 3500
Stockbroking Business: Level 8, Tower C, Dataran Maybank, No.1, Jalan Maarof 59000 Kuala Lumpur Tel: (603) 2297 8888 Fax: (603) 2282 5136
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Philippines Maybank ATR Kim Eng Securities Inc. 17/F, Tower One & Exchange Plaza Ayala Triangle, Ayala Avenue Makati City, Philippines 1200 Tel: (63) 2 849 8888 Fax: (63) 2 848 5738
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South Asia Sales Trading Kevin Foy Regional Head Sales Trading [email protected] Tel: (65) 6636-3620 US Toll Free: 1-866-406-7447
North Asia Sales Trading Andrew Lee [email protected] Tel: (852) 2268 0283 US Toll Free: 1 877 837 7635
Malaysia
Joann Lim [email protected] Tel: (603) 2717 5166
Thailand Tanasak Krishnasreni [email protected] Tel: (66)2 658 6820
Indonesia
Harianto Liong [email protected] Tel: (62) 21 2557 1177
London Scott Kinnear-Nock [email protected] Tel: (44) 207-332-0221
New York
Andrew Dacey [email protected] Tel: (212) 688 2956
India Manish Modi [email protected] Tel: (91)-22-6623-2601
Vietnam
Patrick Mitchell [email protected] Tel: (84)-8-44-555-888 x8080
Philippines Keith Roy [email protected] Tel: (63) 2 848-5288
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