china’s low carbon and energy transition peaking co2 ... · 1 china’s low carbon and energy...

1

China’s Low Carbon and Energy Transition-Peaking CO2 emission in 2020 to 2022 –

-We NEED Rapid Transition -

Jiang Kejun

Energy Research InstitutePeking University

2016 EIA ENERGY CONFERENCEJuly 11-12, 2016

ERI, ChinaERI, China

Keyword: Transition – mitigation to reach some climate change targets

200020202040206020802100-5

0

5

10

15

200020202040206020802100-5

0

5

10

15

200020202040206020802100-5

0

5

10

15

N=76N=27

Category III(< 440-485 ppm CO2)

Category II(< 400-440 ppm CO2)

without neg. emissions

with neg. emissions

Emiss

ions

(GtC

)

Category I(< 400 ppm CO2)

N=19

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mt-

CO2

CO2 Emission in China

Baseline

LC

ELC

2Degree

Transformation: CO2 emission, a rapid change

We Need Rapid Transition：Put that into 13th Five Year PlanPrimary Energy Demand

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Mtc

e

Year

Primary Energy Demand in China, 2℃ scenario A Bio-Diesel

Ethonal

Biomass PowerSolar

Wind

Nuclear

Hydro

N.Gas

Oil

Coal

5

GDP部门结构

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

1000000

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

年份

亿元

煤气的生产和供应业

蒸汽热水生产供应业

电力生产供应业

其他工业

仪器仪表文化办公用机械

电气机械及器材、电子及通信设备制造业

交通运输设备制造业

普通机械、专用设备制造业

金属制品业

有色金属

黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业

非金属矿物制品业

橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业

化学纤维制造业

医药制造业

化学原料及制品制造业

炼焦业

石油加工

印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业

造纸及纸制品业

木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业、家具制造业

服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造

纺织业

烟草加工业

食品饮料加工、制造业

非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业

有色金属矿采选业

黑色金属矿采选业

天然气开采业

石油

煤炭采选业

农业

GDP by sectors

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

TWh

Power Generation, 2℃ Scenario A

Bio

Solar

Wind

Nulcear

Hydro

N.Gas

Oil fired

Coal fired

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

!0M

WInstalled Capacity, 2 ℃Scenario A

Biomass

Solar

Wind

Nuclear

Hydro

N.Gas

Oil

Coal

88

CCS future

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

%

IGCC-Fuel Cell

IGCC

US-Critical

Super Critical

Large Coal Unit

Samll Coal

9

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Mtc

e

Year

Final Energy Demand, 2 degree scenario

Electricity

Thermal

N.Gas

Oil

Town Gas

Coke

Coal

0 200 400 600 800

1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Mtc

eFinal Energy Demand in Industry,

2℃Scenario A

Electricity

Thermal

N.Gas

Oil

Town Gas

Coke

Coal

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2000 2005 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Mtc

e

Year

Transport Energy Demand: 2 degree scenario

Bio-Diesel

Ethonal

Electricity

N.Gas

Oil

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2005 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Mtc

eTertiary Sector Energy Demand

Electricity

Thermal

N.Gas

Oil

Town Gas

Coke

Coal

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2005 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Mtc

eUrban Household Energy Demand

Electricity

Thermal

N.Gas

Oil

Town Gas

Coke

Coal

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2005 2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Mtc

e Rural Household Energy Demand

Electricity

Thermal

N.Gas

Oil

Town Gas

Coke

Coal

17

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

MtS

O2

SO2 Emission

BaU

LC

ELC

0200400600800

100012001400160018002000

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

1000

ton

Black Carbon Emission in China

BaU

LowCarbon

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mt

NOx Emission in China, ELC scenario

Other

Power generation

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050M

ton

PM2.5 Emission

Other

Power generation

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

ton

Mercury Emission

Other

Power generation

20

2015: 43.18GW

27

What’s the future of China’s low carbon policy: a big picture

• Economic structure optimization policies• Energy efficiency policies• Renewable energy/nuclear power generation oriented policies• CCS• Low carbon consumption/ lifestyle• Land use emission reduction policies: so far relatively poor

28

What’s the future of China’s low carbon policy: a big picture

• Economic structure optimization policies• Energy efficiency policies• Renewable energy/nuclear power generation oriented policies• CCS• Low carbon consumption/ lifestyle• Land use emission reduction policies: so far relatively poor

29

INDC+/NDC for China, and others

30

INDC of China in Paris

• Peak CO2 emission in 2030, try to peak earlier

• 60% to 65% carbon intensity reduction by 2030 with comparison with 2005

• 20% non-fossil energy in TPE

31

INDC+/NDC for China

• Peak CO2 emission in 2030, try to peak earlier

peak 2020-2022

• 60% to 65% carbon intensity reduction by 2030 with comparison with 2005

70%-75% carbon intensity

• 20% non-fossil energy in TPE

25%, based on NEA’s picture

32

Copenhagen for China: progress

• 40% to 45% carbon intensity reduction in Copenhagen

• 2005-2010: carbon intensity 22% reduction

• 2010-2015: carbon intensity 21.8% reduction

• 2015-2020: 18% reduction based on the 13th Five Year Plan

• Then it is around 50%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mt-

CO2

CO2 Emission in China

Baseline

LC

ELC

2Degree

Transformation: CO2 emission, a rapid change

INDC+

3434

工业分部门投资

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

年份

亿元

建筑业

自来水的生产和供应业

煤气的生产和供应业

蒸汽热水生产供应业

电力生产供应业

其他工业

仪器仪表文化办公用机械

电气机械及器材、电子及通信设备制造业

交通运输设备制造业

普通机械、专用设备制造业

金属制品业

有色金属

黑色金属冶炼及压延加工业


橡胶制品业, 塑料制品业


医药制造业

化学原料及制品制造业

炼焦业

石油加工

印刷业记录媒介的复制, 文教体育用品制造业


木材加工及竹藤棕草制品业、家具制造业

服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造

纺织业

烟草加工业

食品饮料加工、制造业

非金属矿采选业, 其他矿采选业, 木材及竹材采运业



天然气开采业

石油

Investment by industrial sectors

35

Products output in major sectors, Low Carbon and ELC

Unit 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050Steel Million ton 355 610 570 440 360Cement Million ton 1060 1600 1600 1200 900

GlassMillioncases

399 650 690 670 580

Copper Million ton 2.6 7 7 6.5 4.6Ammonia Million ton 8.51 16 16 15 12Ethylene Million ton 5.1 7.2 7 6.5 5.5Soda Ash Million ton 14.67 23 24.5 23.5 22Casutic Million ton 12.64 24 25 25 24Paper Million ton 62.05 110 115 120 120FertilizerMillion ton 52.2 61 61 61 61Aluminum Million ton 7.56 34 36 36 33Paper Million ton 46.3 50 50 50 45Calcium caMillion ton 8.5 10 8 7 4

分部门能源消费量, Energy demand by sector, 1995-2010

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

农、

林、

牧、渔业

采掘业

煤炭开采和洗选业

石油

和天然气开采业



非金属矿采选业

其他采矿业

农副食品加工业

食品制造业

饮料制造业

烟草制品业

纺织业

纺织

服装

、鞋、帽制造业

皮革、

毛皮

、羽

毛(绒

)及其制品

业木

材加

工及木

、竹

、藤

、棕、

草制品

业

家具制造业


印刷

业和

记录媒介的复制

文教

体育用品制造业

石油

加工

、炼

焦及核燃料加工

业化

学原

料及

化学制品制造业

医药制造业


橡胶制品业

塑料制品业


黑色

金属

冶炼及压延加工业

有色

金属

冶炼及压延加工业

金属制品业

通用设备制造业

专用设备制造业

交通

运输设备制造业

电气

机械

及器材制造业

通信

设备

、计算

机及

其他

电子

设备制

造业

仪器

仪表及

文化

、办

公用机械

制造业

工艺

品及其他制造业

废弃

资源

和废

旧材料回收加工

业电

力、

煤气

及水

生产和供应业

电力

、热

力的生产和供应业

燃气生产和供应业

水的生产和供应业

建筑

业交

通运

输、仓储和邮政业

批发

、零

售业

和住宿、餐饮业

其他行业

生活消费

1995

2000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

37

Unit energy use for key products, LCS Scenario

Unit 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050

Steel Kgce/t 760 650 564 554 545

Cement Kgce/t 132 101 86 81 77

GlassKgce/WeightCases 24 18 14.5 13.8 13.1

Brick Kgce/万块 685 466 433 421 408

Ammonia Kgce/t 1645 1328 1189 1141 1096

Ethylene Kgce/t 1092 796 713 693 672

Soda Ash Kgce/t 340 310 290 284 279

Casutic Kgce/t 1410 990 890 868 851

Calcium carbide Kgce/t 1482 1304 1215 1201 1193

Copper Kgce/t 1273 1063 931 877 827

Aluminum kWh/t 14320 12870 12170 11923 11877

Paper Kgce/t 1047 840 761 721 686

Electricity fossil fuel Gce/kWh 350 305 287 274 264

High efficiency lighting【 LED】

Solar PV

Energy monitor system （Electric Appliance)

Eco-Life style

减少60% 采暖需求,普及率70%

(25-47% 的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池，转换效率接近30%

COP =8, 普及率100%

Super High Efficiency Air-Con

Solar energy for hot water and space heating

普及率: 20-60%（目前 6%）

Heat pumpCOP＝5普及率30-70%

Fuel cell普及率0-20%

High insulation system

减少50%照明需求，普及率100%

Standby energy use

降低1/3 ，普及率100%

Low Carbon House in 2050: comfortable and energy saving

Planting on top

5

Solar Energy

High efficiency electric applianceReduce energy use, and higher life level

Public informationPublic consumption change

减少10-20% 能源需求

40

Transport, Low carbon scenario

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Family car ownership, per 100HH Urban 3.37 14 36 65 77 78

Rural 0.08 0.2 8 38 70 90Family car annual travel distance, km 9500 9500 9300 8635 8300 7480Average engin size of family cars, litter 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4Fuel efficiency of car, L/100km 9.2 8.9 7.1 5.9 4.8 4.1Share of MRT in total traffic volume, % 0.011 0.016 0.025 0.046 0.1 0.21Share of Biofuel, % 1.10% 1.30% 4.1% 7.70% 12% 13%Share of electric car, % 0% 0.12% 3.2% 6.80% 12.5% 19.8%Share of fuel cell car, % 0% 0% 0.80% 1.60% 4.70% 7.90%

Car Fuel Efficiency in China

02468

1012141618

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year

l/100

kmSantanaFukanJATTAAudi-100XialiPoloFITJATTA-CTIBMWJEEPSIENABENZVIZEQQ-0.8BORASANAPASSATSUNNYELANTACOROLAQQ-1.1ELESSAACCORD-3.0PAJEROPRUISLUPO

Rapid bus: using existing rapid road

Stockholm: bicycle is coming back

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh

Power Generation

Bio

Solar

Wind

Nulcear

Hydro

N.Gas

Oil fired

Coal fired

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

万千

瓦

Power Generation Capacity

Biomass

Solar

Wind

Nuclear

Hydro

N.Gas

Oil

Coal

46

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

10^8

Yuan

Year

Investment in Energy Industry in China

BaU

HLC

HELC

LLC

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

10^8

Yuan

Year

Energy Expenditures in China

BaU

HLC

HELC

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000

Industry Transport Building Total

10^8

Yua

n

Year

Addtional Investment in end use sectors in ELC

20102020203020402050

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

2010 2020 2030 2050 2075 2100

GDP Loss, %

650ppm

550ppm

450ppm

Per Capita

Carbon Intensity

Fixed Investment for Pollution Control, million yuan

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

2005 2010 2020 2030 2050

Inde

x, 2

005=

1

Year

Technology learning curve

Fuel Cell IGCC

Hydrogen Car

Poly-Generation

Solar Thermal Power

PV

4th Generation Nuclear

Off shore wind

on shore wind

Biomass Power

Advanced NGCC

Electic Car

CCS

Solar 2010

Wind 2010

CCS-PostC

CCS-Enduse

LED Lighting

Price: US$38000Subsidy: US$15000(Shanghai), no need to apply number plate(cost US$10000) US$18000(Beijing), no need to apply number plate(By Oct. 2012, 1.1 million people apply for 20000number plates per month),

By 2020, Wind 200GW to 250GW, Solar 50WG

49

Policy roadmap: Super high efficiency air conditioner

• Efficiency Standard: COP, MEPS• Government Planning• Subsidy

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Start COP

50

Renewable Energy

• Renewable Energy Planning 2006: wind 30GW, Solar 2GW by 2020

• 2009 Energy Bureau: Wind 80WG• 2010 Energy Planning: Wind 150 GW, Solar 20GW by 2020• 2013, the 12th Five Year Plan: 20GW of solar PV by 2015,

150GW wind• February 2013, 35GW PV by 2015

• Now: Wind 200GW to 300GW, Solar 50WG to 120 GW

• Based on the conclusion from Chinese Academy for Engineering, grid in China could adopt these renewable energy power generation in short term.

51

Natural Gas Scenarios

• In 2010,Natural Gas use 107.2BCM, while 12.2BCM imported.

• In our low carbon scenario: by 2030, 370BCM

• NEA’s planning: 260BCM by 2015

• Expecting: 420BCM by 2020

52

The New Five Year Plan on Air Pollution Control

• From 2013 to 2017

• Target: 30% improvement of air pollution

• A package of policies

• In which: reducing coal use in key areas including Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Yangtze Delta Regions, Pearl River Delta Region

• Clean oil supply for vehicle, upgrade emission standard and oil quality

• Regulation on diffusion on high efficiency cars

53

The expected big changes in energy system in China

• Coal consumption start to decrease, coal industry should be ready for it, and make own long-term strategy: local manufacture, export/import, security, clean coal use.

• Much more natural gas demand, need to work out for the supply

• Much faster progress on renewable energy, both centralized and distributed

• Grid should be reconstructed to support the system• Energy price increase, to cover energy environment externality.• Large scale of nuclear in• Much lower growth rate for energy demand in China

59

The New China-US Announcement： keywords

• Considering global 2 degree target

• China: peak by 2030, make effort to peak earlier

• US: 26-28% emission reduction by 2025 compared with that in 2005

• Both Will make more strict target in future

60

Our Studies Now

• Global emission scenarios by joining international studies: RoSE, EMPERE, LIMIT, IAMC, EMF30

• CO2 Emission scenario for China: focusing on 2 degree scenario

• Local air pollution emission scenario and policy roadmap: focusing on Jing-Jin-Ji area

• Energy and GHG indicators for 13th Five Year Plan• Carbon tax implementation analysis• Coal cap scenario analysis• ETS design modeling for China and pilot phase cities• Policy design for building on energy and CO2 emission target• International emission scenario analysis: US, Japan, EU, China• Up-Grade of Chinese Economy: a Yangtze River Case

china’s low carbon and energy transition peaking co2 ... · 1 china’s low carbon and energy...

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