china’sfuturewindenergydevelopment ......outline(! background-china’s current energy system and...
TRANSCRIPT
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China’s Future Wind Energy Development and its environmental benefits
Wei Peng 1st Year STEP PhD
4/10/2012
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Outline
Ê Background -China’s current energy system and wind energy potential
-China wind energy development status quo and prospect
-The potential environmental benefits from wind energy development
Ê Research questions and methodology Phase 1: Wind integration scenarios, develop the basic methodology
Phase 2: More policy scenarios
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Outlook for energy demand in China
Year Energy consumption Electric power demand
2010 3.25btce (2.28 btoe) 4,190 TWh
2020 4.5-‐5.0 btce (3.15-‐3.50 btoe) 8,000TWh
2030 5.5-‐6.0 btce (3.85-‐4.20 btce) 10,000 TWh
2050 6.5 btce (4.55 btoe) 13,000 TWh
Source: ERI China wind energy development roadmap 2050 Xinhua News Agency
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CO2 Emission Projection
Projection: 2020: 9000 mt 2030: 11,500 mt
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China’s low carbon energy strategy
Ê 2009: by 2020 non-‐fossil fuel sources contributes 15% in total primary energy consumption (9.4%, 2011; 8.3%, 2010)
Ê “12th Five-‐Year-‐Plan (2011-‐2015)”: Three binding targets
§ Non-‐fossil fuels in energy consumption increases to 11.4% in 2015
§ Energy consumption per unit GDP reduce by 16%
§ CO2 emission per unit GDP reduce by 17%
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China’s current electricity generation capacity
Fig. Existing Chinese grid-‐connected generation capacity, in GW, 2010 (Source: CEC)
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Wind resource potential
Fig. Distribution of land-‐based wind resource potential (China Meteorology Administration)
1. Wind Resource Potential (Grade 3 or above: Wind power density>=300W/m2): àOnshore (70m) 2-‐3.4 TW; Offshore (depth 5-‐25m, 100m height) 0.5TW 2. Under current technology, wind power capacity: 1 Tw
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Potential for wind-‐generated electricity
Fig. Potential electricity irrespective of price that could be generated over seven electric grid areas of China mainland.
-‐Annual electricity production potential: 24,700 TWh -‐Contract price 0.516 RMB/kWh: 6,960 TWh
Source: M. McElroy(2009)
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China wind energy development status quo and prospect
Fast Expanding wind power uses
u From 2006-‐2010, China’s total wind power installed capacity doubled each year.
u By the end of 2010:
Total installed capacity 41GW Rank 1st in the world
Operational capacity 31GW
Electricity generation 50 Twh 1.28% of consumption
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Renewable energy law (REL) Amendment to REL
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Environmental benefits to be expected from more wind generated electricity
Table. Anthropogenic emissions in China in the year 2006 (unit: Gg/year)
Source: Q Zhang et al (2009)
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Costs difference between electricity generated from coal power and wind power
Ê Current onshore wind power costs: CNY 0.35-‐0.50/kWh, feed-‐in tariff : CNY 0.51-‐0.61/kWh (0.20-‐0.25 higher than coal power tariff)
-‐ If wind power’s benefits in terms of providing an alternative resource and protecting the environment are taken into account, the wind power costs should be similar to coal power costs.
Ê Future: Decreasing wind power generation costs and higher thermal power prices
-‐After 2020, Wind power costs and prices will tend to match those of thermal power, with lower tariff. (even without fossil fuel energy resource taxes/ environmental taxes, carbon taxes)
Note: the above analyses do not include incremental costs of wind power in grid connection, integration and long-‐distance transmission, 0.05-‐0.30/kWh)
Source: ERI Roadmap(2011)
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Vision for Wind Power Deployment
2010 2020 2030 2050
Total installed generation capacity 3.1% 11% 15% 26%
Total electricity production 1.28% 5% 8.4% 17%
Cumulative installed capacity 40GW >200GW >400GW 1Tw
Table. Strategic objectives for wind power development in China
2020 2030 2050
Energy replacement by wind power (mtce) 130 260 660
Annual CO2 reduction (Mt) 300 (3.3%) 600 (5.2%) 1500
Annual SO2 reduction (Mt) 1.1 2.2 5.6
Table. Expected energy and environmental benefits
Note: Taking into account improved thermal power technology and lower coal consumption per kWh of power
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Fig. Wind Power distribution in China
Fig. Targeted installed capacity and electricity share of wind power, 2010-‐2050
Fig. CO2 reduction potential of wind power development
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Existing Problems -‐Intermittent characteristic of wind energy
Grid Connection Bottleneck
Excess local power supply
Large Scale wind power
curtailment
North Northeast Total
Wind Electricity Production 42% 31%
Wind energy Curtailed 57.2% 38% 5.5%(2.76Twh)
Table. Disproportional high level of curtailment in northern China (Jan-‐Jun, 2010)
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Fig. Basic scenario: A typical 24-‐hour electricity dispatch for Texas 2030 with significant wind penetration
Fig. Double wind scenario: An example of the impact of excess Wind on electricity dispatch
Effect of intermittent wind energy on system stability
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Future Challenges for large-‐scale wind energy integration
u Flexible generation and storage
1. Flexible generation
2. Challenges of nationwide dispatch
u Demand-‐side management and storage
1. Demand-‐side management
2. Electricity Storage
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Flexible generation
Advantage Disadvantage
Coal-‐fired plant
2/3 of total installed power Less flexible due to longer start-‐up/shut down times; Lower efficiency and higher emission factor at partial load; Smaller plants become scarce.
Natural gas plants
Most flexible option, esp. combined-‐cycle gas turbine
Less than 1% of total electricity is generated from NG
Hydro power plants
Optimum options: start up/shut down quickly, no major impact on equipment’s service life; can operate at relatively low minimum load
Seasonal variation; Geographic mismatch of wind and hydro power; Little spare hydro capacity left to mitigate increased net variability in the power system
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Research Questions:
u Phase 1 (Technical barriers): -‐ What will be environmental benefits of China’s wind energy development,
based on the strategic targets?
-‐ Which is more cost-‐effective: clean coal technology or wind energy deployment?
u Phase 2: (Policy concerns)
Policy scenarios that will impact the costs and benefits:
1. National dispatch: division of grid management; electricity trading; preferential dispatch
2. Demand-‐side management: Electricity pricing
3. Subsidy policy
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Phase 1: Methodology
Step 1 • Projected emission inventory with different levels of wind power penetration and coal technology improvement
Step 2 • WRF-‐Chem to model the CO2 and other air pollutants’ concentration
Step 3
• Environmental Benefits: CO2 abatement: Carbon price SO2, NOx, PM reduction: Health benefits
Step 4 • Cost-‐benefit analysis, internalizing/ not internalizing the environmental benefits
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Step 1: Emission inventory
Ê Baseline: 2006 emission inventory
Source: Q.Zhang et al. Asian emissions in 2006 for the NASA INTEX-‐B mission. Atmos. Chem.Phys, 9,5131-‐5153,2009
Ê 4 Scenarios
(More Roadmaps by ERI)
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Scenarios:
Electricity from coal (%)
Electricity from wind (%)
Other resources
Scenario 1(BAU) 2010 level 2010 level
Holding constant: Projection? Roadmap?
Scenario 2 (Clean coal tech)
2010 level, clean tech 2010 level
Scenario 3 (Wind energy development)
No clean tech Targeted level
Scenario 4 (wind energy development + clean coal)
Clean tech Targeted level
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Step 1: Emission inventory
Challenge:
-‐Develop future emission inventory with targeted wind electricity share
1. Understand the assumptions of projected future emission inventory
2. Understand the assumptions to set the future targets of wind penetration (ERI, Roadmap 2011)
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Step 1: Emission inventory
3. Location of coal power plants to be replaced, newly-‐built wind power plants, and hydro power plant as balancing capacity.
Table. Wind power development targets and distribution (GW), Source: ERI Roadmap
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Step 1: Emission inventory
3. Location of coal power plants to be replaced, newly-‐built wind power plants, and hydro power plant as balancing capacity.
a. Two ways to view firming capacity [the flexible capacity needed to make a system reliable]: resource-‐level view and system-‐level view
b. Major assumption: grid connection and management, and government’s plan
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Step 1: Emission inventory
4. The emission factor of CO2 and air pollutants for coal power plants:
• Higher: run partial load to balance variable wind electricity supply;
• Lower: stringent standard and enhanced clean coal technology
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Technology renewal and average emission factors for coal-‐fired power plants
Bar: share of power units with different sizes; Line: trends of average emission factor Source: Q. Zhang et al (2009)
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Phase 2: More policy issues
u Challenge of national dispatch
u Demand-‐side management
u Subsidy à Policy scenarios that will change the wind penetration level at different regions
à Change the wind-‐penetrated emission inventory
à Change CO2 and air pollutants’ concentration
à New costs-‐benefits analysis
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Challenges of national dispatch u Division of grid management
-‐3 independent grid companies, responsible for its own profits and lossà Little incentive for inter-‐company co-‐operation
u Electricity trading market
-‐Fixed price and limited trade amount
• 80% of electricity trading between regions and provinces is governed by long-‐term contracts (Quantity and price);
• Small portion of electricity can be traded in spot market (14% of total generation, 2009);
• Takes place on yearly agreements among provinces
u Preferential Dispatch
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Demand-‐side management
u Planning, implementing, and monitoring of utility activities designed to encourage consumers to modify patterns of electricity usage. (Electricity consumption in 2009, Industry 73.1% and residential 12.5%)
u Electricity pricing: flexibility is needed
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Subsidy
Existing Subsidies:
1. 2006: Region-‐specific feed-‐in-‐tariff
2. Renewable energy surcharge on end-‐user
3. Depending on the distance between power transmission lines and wind farms, subsidies of CNY 0.01-‐0.03/kWh will be awarded.
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Subsidy
Projections:
“Assuming comparable costs for land-‐based wind and coal by 2020 and a continuation of current policies”:
-‐Feed-‐in-‐tariff subsidies: Peak at 2015 -‐Total wind power tariff subsidies will reach CNY 210 billion. -‐After 2020, only subsidies required will be for offshore wind tariffs.