CHRIS MURPHYAviva Investors

PAID TO WAIT

Aviva Investors UK Equity and Aviva Investors UK Equity Income Funds.

This document is approved for investment professionals only. It is not to be viewed by or used with retail clients. Standard & Poor’s AA rating s for both funds as at 30 September 2011.

CHRIS MURPHY

A CHART FROM JANUARY 2010

US: cumulative jobs lost since December 2007

Construction

RetailFinancial

Other

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Total loss of 7.3m jobs

-1.6m = 21% of total

Source: Thomson Financial and Aviva Investors

-0.9m = 13% of total-0.5m = 8% of total

Page 1

Data as at January 2010

Number of jobs

AMERICA IS IN SAFE HANDS

Page 2

EUROPE IS IN SAFE HANDS

Page 3

SO WHAT SHOULD YOU EXPECT

Page 4

AS FOR THE UK

Page 5

THE ‘SCORES ON THE DOORS’ OR STOP READING

Region Flexible Monetary Policy

Sensible Fiscal Policy

Policy makers coordinated

Score

USA yes no no 1

Europe no no no 0

UK yes yes yes(..ish) 2 1/2

Page 6

Note: These are the views of Aviva Investors as at 30 September 2011

THE UK…..IT’S LARGE AND GLOBAL

Source: Citi. Factset & CIRA as at 30 September 2011

Page 7

Top 15 Equity Markets (MSCI Weight)

Percentage of 2009 Revenues by Region

%

FINANCIAL HEALTH - MARGINS

Source: Datastream & CIRA as at 30 September 2011*E: estimated

Page 8

Market ex Financials Market ex Financials ex Commodities

Year Year

FINANCIAL HEALTH – BALANCE SHEETS

Page 9

Year Year

Market ex Financials Market ex Financials ex Commodities

Source: Datastream & CIRA as at 30 September 2011*E: estimated

% %

FINANCIAL HEALTH- CASH FLOW

Source: Factset & CIRA as at 30 September 2011

Page 10

UK Free Cash Flow Yield & Corp Bond Yields UK Return of capital, Annual

Year Year

%

VALUATION

Source: Datastream & CIRA as at 30 September 2011*E: estimated

Page 11

Year Year

EV/EBITDA UK Market - Price to Book

Pric

e/B

ook

%

EV/

EBIT

DA

%

VALUATION VS THE WORLD

Source: Factset & CIRA as at 30 September 2011

Page 12

UK vs. World Price/Earnings UK vs. World Dividend Yield

Price/Earnings (%) Dividend Yield (%)

GROWTH AND REVENUE

Source: IBES, MSCI, Factset, CIRA as at 30 September 2011 Page 13

Regional EPS Growth 2011E UK Share of EM Revs. vs. World

%

EQUITY YIELDS

Source: Datastream & CIRA as at 30 September 2011

Page 14

Historic Dividend Yield Dividend Yield vs. Gilt Yields

Year Year

YIELD -MIND THE GAP

Source: Global Financial Data, Datastream & CIRA as at 30 September 2011

Page 15

UK Dividend Yield Ratio

Yield%

Year

LOW RATINGS LEAD TO HIGH RETURNS

1970

19711972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1979

19801981 1983

19851986

198719891990

1991

19921993

1994

1997

19981999

2000

y = -0.9006x + 20.151

R2 = 0.7333

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28

Starting period PER (X)

Av erage 10 y ear real total return (% per annum)

Source: Oriel Securities as at 30 September 2011

Page 16

Price/Earnings and 10 year real equity returns

Starting period PER (X)

Avg

. 10

year

Tot

al R

etur

n (%

per

ann

um)

MEAN REVERSION WHAT GONE DOWN MUST GO UP!

18811882188318841885188618871888188918901891189218931894189518961897189818991900190119021903190419051906190719081909191019111912191319141915191619171918191919201921192219231924192519261927192819291930193119321933193419351936193719381939194019411942194319441945194619471948194919501951195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011-200

0

200

400

600

800

rolling 10 year nom UK stock returns rolling 10-year real UK stock returns

Roaring 20s: peace, prosperity, strong economic growth, technological im-

provements, strong income gains, stocks bought on "margin"

1980s/90s: financial deregula-tion, disinflation, economic stability, technological ad-

vances, new paradigm, M&A wave, TMT/NASDAQ bubble

1950s: post-war boom, strong consump-tion, introduction of mutual funds encour-aged small investors back to market, ex-

pansion of commercial aviation, new tech-nology (e.g. chemicals, electricals), merger

wave, leading to Nifty Fifty leadership

Source: CIRA as at 30 September 2011

Page 17

Year

Aver

age

Rev

ersi

on

UK EQUITIES ARE CHEAP.

Page 18

Important information

This document is approved for investment professionals only. It is not to be viewed by or used with retail clients.

Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors as at 30 September 2011.

Any future returns and opinions expressed are those of Aviva Investors and are based on the internal forecasts of Aviva Investors and should not be relied upon as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors. No part of this document is intended to constitute advice or recommendations of any nature.

Where performance has been illustrated it is not intended to be a guide to the future. The value of an investment in a fund and the income from it can go down as well as up.

For full information about the risks involved when investing in this product please refer to the simplified prospectus. A copy can be downloaded from our website or is available from us on request.

Aviva Investors is a business name of Aviva Investors UK Fund Services Limited, the Authorised Fund Manager. Registered in England No. 1973412. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. FSA Registered No. 119310. Registered address: No 1. Poultry, London EC2R 8EJ. An Aviva company. www.avivainvestors.co.uk

CI061691 10/2011