christopher j. burke director, api strategy motorola extreme foresight: developing for the future
TRANSCRIPT
CHRISTOPHER J. BURKE
Director, API StrategyMotorola
Extreme Foresight:
Developing for THE FUTURE
Extreme Foresight AGENDA
Trends
Implications
Frameworks
Enablers
Actions
Anticipating the Future TRENDS
Switch Disintegration
Platform Products
Internetrification
No-Moore’s Law
Wireless Gold Rush
Switch Disintegration
Future networks are “smart on the edges, dumb and fast in the middle” to scale
Proprietary, centralized call and message switches become extinct
Feature-specific servers from multiple vendors and ASPs collaborate on a secure, QoS-managed, broadband internet backbone
Policy replaces architecture
Mobile SwitchingCenter (MSC)
Platform Products
Future economic efficiency of combining and adding value to off-the-shelf equipment and software
Non-customizable products become extinct or find appliance niches
Wireless communication devices and infrastructure gain advantage by being optimally customizable
Huge demand for platforms
Undifferentiated
Differentiated
CompetitivePosition
Source: “The Experience Economy”, Pine & Gilmore, 1999
Market PremiumPricing
ExtractCommodities
Make Goods
DeliverServices
StageExperiences
GuideTrans-
formations
customize
customize
customize
customize
commoditize
commoditize
commoditize
commoditize
Internetrification
Wireless grows to a $600B market by 2004
The internet grows to a multi-trillion dollar market in the same time frame
Convergence removes the wall around the wireless garden; the markets collide
The larger and more agile internet wins – eventually
Applications transcend networks
FeatureServer
GlobalInternet
Core
Operations Support System
Access Network:
Enterprise
Multi-Service Gateway /
Router Client
Operations Support Systems
FeatureServer
Access Network:Wireless
Multi-Service Gateway /
Router
Client
FeatureServer
Operations Support System
Access Network:
Cable
Multi-Service Gateway /
Router
Client
FeatureServer
Operations Support System
Access Network:
PSTN/DSL
Multi-Service Gateway /
Router
Client
Operations Support System
No-Moore’s Law
Key mobile technologies don’t double every 18 months
– Device battery capacity
– Wireless bandwidth
– Bits / dollar, Device MIPS
Wireless economics remain unlike computer industry
User dissatisfaction with cost vs benefit of some generic applications
Differentiate by optimizing
bits/sec
1
10
100
95 96 97 98 99 OO O1
Trend
Moore
NiCdNiMH
Li-Ion
Li-Poly
Relative Battery Capacity Per cm3
Wireless Gold Rush
For the first time in 20 years, wireless services prospectors are getting rich in public!
Java, WAP and MIX lower the entry barrier; investors pour into wireless Gold Country
Stakes are high enough that not everybody behaves - value trustworthy partners
Entire ecosystems flourish around the wireless services value-creation engine
Analyzing the Future IMPLICATIONS
Policy Replaces Architecture
Huge Demand for Platforms
Applications Transcend Networks
Differentiate by Optimizing
Ecosystems Flourish
Implication: POLICY
Centralized wireless system architecture determined who could offer what services
– “Architectural Control” for vendor
– “Walled Garden” for carrier
The next generation of systems enable services via network-based policies
– Open APIs and Protocols
– Business Relationships – Policies - drive Authentication, Authorization, and Accounting for value-added services
Implication: PLATFORMS
Monolithic wireless systems served a fixed, single purpose (example: “telephony”)
– Value-added / data services an afterthought
– Relatively narrow range of add-on services
The next generation of systems are architected for customization
– Business model analysis identifies critical policy boundaries and key enablers
– Enablers for specific markets are integrated via standards to create platforms
– Abundant 3rd party value-add opportunities
Implication: TRANSCENDENCE
2nd Generation Wireless technologies were in competition with each other
– Differentiation on basis of services
– Network-unique applications encouraged
The next generation of systems separate the “access network” from the “core network”
– Any mix of wired / wireless access networks reaching person, home, vehicle, work-group
– The core network is the internet
– Many future “wireless” applications are internet applications, not 3G or CDMA applications
Implication: OPTIMIZATION
Generic / internet applications operate across any combination of access networks
– Broad, highly competitive market
– User perception: some are “unusable” today due to cost / performance of wireless link
The next generation of systems support both generic and optimized applications
– Optimization creates first mover advantage(6-12 month market lead for new features)
– Demand creation
– Gateway / portal / arbitrage business model
Implication: ECOSYSTEMS
Centralized, monolithic, proprietary systems had centralized, monolithic, proprietary business models
– Key accounts
– Systems Integrators, Certified VARs
The next generation of systems succeed due to a strong, balanced network of partnerships
– Combined core competence of partners creates an unstoppable whole product
– Joint architectures and roadmaps
– Mutually-reinforcing business models
Organizing the Future FRAMEWORKS
End-User Framework
Solutions Framework
Customization Framework
End-User Framework
The Brand Compass: Motorola’s End-User Framework
– AccompliTM
brand(early adopters)
– V. TM
brand(style, status)
– TimeportTM
brand (time managers)
– TalkaboutTM
brand (keep in touch)
Motorola has a roadmap for introduction of 3rd party applications into each segment
Simplify Complexity
Amplify Human Capability
End User Framework: TOP 10 APPLICATIONS
Messaging (E-Mail, Instant and Universal)
Location Aware Services
Internet Access (Surfing, Enterprise)
Personal Information Management
Mobile Commerce - Purchases
Software Downloads
Dispatch
Portfolio Management and Banking
Wireless Media Clips (Photos, Music)
Your Visionary Applications
End User Framework: ROADMAP
Messaging
Location Aware Services
Internet Access
Personal Information Management
Mobile Commerce - Purchases
Software Downloads
Dispatch (Voice One-to-Many) -
Portfolio Management and Banking -
Wireless Media Clips
Your Visionary Applications ? ? ? ?
= strong application appeal = limited application appeal
Solutions Framework
Enablers - InfrastructureEnablers - Infrastructure Enablers - DeviceEnablers - Device
Solution Categories
Real TimeComm
Frameworks and Process for End-To-End Solution Creation and Delivery
Solution - Examples Voice
Core Needs of Consumers and Customers
End-To-End Solution Technology EnablersEnd-To-End Solution Technology Enablers
Solutions EnvironmentSolutions Environment
Enablers - ServerEnablers - Server
EmailInternetAccess
Games Taxi Home OrderInput
Group Tracking
PIM Messaging LocationRecords Mgmt
Monitor &Control
DispatchM - Commerce
InformationAccess
Entertainment
TransactionsCalendar
Applications
3rd PartyComm Svcs
3rd PartyServices
Resources
Applications
3rd PartyComm Svcs
3rd PartyServices
Resources
Customization Framework
Applications
Client
App SupportServices
CommonServices
App SupportServices
CommonServices
Applications
App Support Services
Common
Services
ApplicationServer
89
10
NetworkServices
(6) application protocol 5
3
Resources
4
CompoundDevice Support
ApplicationHosting
1
Resources Resources
7
OA&MFramework
2
Motorola’s Framework Includes 10 Customization Interfaces
operator policy boundary
Customization Framework
Mobile TerminalApplication Environment
Mobile TerminalCommunication Services
ApplicationAPI 2
API 8
Mobile Terminal
Mobile TerminalHardware Platform
kJavaEPOCWAP, etc
Soft Modems,Sierra API, etc.
TDMA, CDMA, GSM, GPRS, iDEN, 3G
Feature ServerApplication Environment
Feature ServerCommunication Services
ApplicationAPI 3
API 10
Feature Server
Feature ServerHardware Platform
Linux,Win2K,Solaris, etc.
JAIN, Parlay, etc.
Internet, Enterprise, Carrier, Person, Workgroup, Vehicle, Home
Customization Framework
API 1MobileComputer
WirelessModem
BluetoothIrDA, etc
Portal /Application
Host
ContentServer
API 5MIX APIs,ECTF, etc.
WebServer
MobileTerminal
API 6VoxML, HTML,
XML, etc
MobileTerminal
CoreNetwork
API 8
Soft Modems,Sierra API, etc.
API 9 Feature ServerNetwork
JAIN, Parlay, etc.
CoreNetwork
FeatureServer
API 10 CoreNetworkJAIN, Parlay,
etc.
Customization Framework
CustomizationInterface Application
API 1 How does the laptop or headset use the cell phone as a wireless modem?
API 2 How does a Java program written for the cell phone access the cell phone’sresources and built-in features?
API 3 How does an application on an AspiraTM Feature Server access feature serverresources and built-in features?
API 4 How does an element of the Aspira TM network communicate with other Aspira TM
network elements?API 5 How does a 3rd party application associate itself with the Aspira TM Mobile Portal?
API 6 How do the client and server parts of an application communicate end-to-end?
API 7 How is the entire system managed and provisioned?
API 8 How does an execution environment like WAP or JVM access the communicationcapabilities of the cell phone?
API 9 How does an Aspira TM built-in network application access the Aspira TM network’sresources and built-in features?
API 10 How does an Aspira TM Feature Server access the Aspira TM network’s resources andbuilt-in features?
Enabling the Future ENABLERS
Business Modeling
Key Technologies and Standards
Wireless Enablers: BUSINESS MODELING
For each of the the top applications, Motorola is developing:
– Descriptions of products or services provided
– Definition of policy-setting entities participating in the products and services
– Enumeration the transaction types between entities
– Identification of key enabling technologies
– Specification of API requirements for each key enabling technology
– Assessment of applicable interface standards
Universal Modeling Language (UML) lets Motorola and partners collaborate on requirements and implementation using common tools
Ongoing Motorola research
Wireless Enablers: KEY TECHNOLOGIES
Key technologies will impact developers according to the anticipatory trends and organizing frameworks
Examples:
– WAP
– VoiceXML
– Java™ Software
– GSM / GPRS / CDMA
– 3G
– SMS
– Bluetooth ™ Technology
Shaping the Future ACTIONS
“As for the Future, your task is not to foresee, but to enable it.”
Antoine de Saint-Exupery, The Wisdom of the Sands, (1948)
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