(ciws) - university corporation for atmospheric research _segment/meyer.pdfciws mit lincoln...
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![Page 1: (CIWS) - University Corporation for Atmospheric Research _Segment/meyer.pdfCIWS MIT Lincoln Laboratory D. Meyer 10/21/05 Outline • Example of Weather Impacting Air traffic – Impacts](https://reader031.vdocument.in/reader031/viewer/2022022518/5b0c80947f8b9a2c3b8bbc4c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
Corridor Integrated Weather System
(CIWS)
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MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
Outline
• Example of Weather Impacting Air traffic – Impacts on worst delay day
• Ways to reduce delay– Improve forecasts– Aid traffic flow management
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MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
Aviation Delay Problem
Aviation Weather Delays US Air Traffic DensityCauses of NAS Delays in 2004
Other 5% Weather
76%
© The COMET Program
Volume 14%
Equipment1%
Closed Runway4%
OPSNET Weather Delays
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan
Feb Mar AprMay Ju
n Jul
AugSep OctNovDec
Month
Thou
sand
s of
Del
ays
20022001200019991998200520042003
• Thunderstorms cause fatalities and severe injuries at a cost of $8.1M/yr
• Convection responsible for 40% of delay costs: $840 – 920 M/yr
• Approximately 40% of thunderstorm delay possibly avoidable ($336-368 M/yr)
Thunderstorm Impacts
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MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
FAA Corridor Integrated Weather SystemImproving Tactical Convective Weather Forecasts for Aviation
Precipitation Mosaic
# of aircraft
CIWS Domain and Air Traffic
0-2 hourEcho Tops Forecast
Winter Precipitation Forecast
Growth and Decay Trends
Echo Tops Mosaic
Plan CIWS capability across CONUS by 2007
0-2 hourPrecipitation Forecast
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MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
Identified CIWS Benefits in 2003
• Intensive benefits analyses in 2003 & 2005– Annual benefits estimates are from ’03– Increase expected based on ’05 analyses
Relative Frequency of Benefits Categories
Improved Arrival Transition Area
Management
Interfacility Coordination
Situational Awareness
Routes Open Longer
$89M
ReduceWorkload
ProactiveReroutes
$37M
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MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
CIWS Benefits Are Increasing …
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1
2
3
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NEXRADPrecip
PrecipFcst
EchoTops
EchoTops Fcst
G&DTrend
StormMotionVectors
Lightning ASRPrecip
Prod
uct U
se F
requ
ency
Per
Con
vect
ive
Wea
ther
Day Route Open Longer (2003)
Route Open Longer (2005)
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2
3
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NEXRADPrecip
PrecipFcst
EchoTops
EchoTops Fcst
G&DTrend
StormMotionVectors
Lightning ASRPreci
Prod
uct U
se F
requ
ency
Per
Con
vect
ive
Wea
ther
Day
Da
p
y
Proactive, Efficient Reroute (2003)
Proactive, Efficient Reroute (2005)
Comparison of CIWS Product Usage in 2003 and 2005
Keeping Routes Open Longer Proactive, Efficient Reroutes
• Note increased use of Precip Forecast and importance of Echo Tops information• Initial use of Echo Tops Forecast in 2005 surpasses use of Precip Forecast in 2003
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MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
CIWS Benefits ComparisonsARTCCs With and Without CIWS Displays in Areas
• Much higher benefits at ARTCCs with CIWS displays in TMU and Areas
• ZMP ARTCC new CIWS ‘user’ in 2005
- Benefits lagged other ARTCCswith CIWS in TMU and Areasas 2005 was first SWAP seasonwith CIWS and user “burn-in”period was expected
• For ARTCCs with no CIWS in Areas, significantly morebenefits realized at ZBW
- Compensated for lack of CIWSin Areas through increaseduse in TMU
- ZBW operational benefits stilllagged benefits at ZDC and ZOB(ARTCCs with similar TMU CIWSexperience, but CIWS also in Areas) ** Includes most significant CIWS en route delay reduction benefits categories + FAA staffing
assistance category
CIWS Operational Benefits per ARTCC **
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1
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Routes OpenLonger
ProactiveReroutes
Reduced MITrestrictions
ImprovedATA/DTA
management
Directingpathfinders
Staffingassistance
CIW
S B
enef
it pe
r Con
vect
ive
Wea
ther
Day
ZMPZOBZDCZAUZNYZBW
CIWS inAreas
NO CIWS inAreas
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MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
Recipe for Bad NAS Delay Day
1. Impact NY TRACON directly2. Disrupt E-W flow in Corridor3. Impact DC and Atlanta simultaneously4. Make the weather impact last for hours
• 13 July 2005 had all these ingredients!– Worst single day delay in FAA history
• For 35 OEP pacing airports– 1624 delays recorded– 2017 total hours of delay– Average delay of 74 min per flight
– Hurricane Dennis remnant in central US– Convective weather along east coast
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MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
Example of Air Traffic Impacts by WeatherWorst Delay – day in FAA history – 13 July 2005
CIWS Precipitation CIWS Echo Tops
Flights at or above 16,000 FeetWestern weather caused by remnant of hurricane Dennis
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MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
CIWS 1-hr Forecast Performance
Correct Forecasts Failed to Forecast GrowthFailed to Forecast Decay
• All significant storm elements forecast very well
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MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
CIWS 2-hr Forecast Performance
Correct Forecasts Failed to Forecast GrowthFailed to Forecast Decay
• Large storms forecast less well - more growth & decay missed
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MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
Reducing Weather Impact Delays
• Recognize some delay is unavoidable– Develop model to calculate optimal routing given weather, traffic– Compare “actual” routing to “optimal” to fairly measure delay
• Improve forecast products– FAA Aviation Weather Research Program is
Improving storm growth & decay in 0-2 hr tactical forecasts Developing automated 2-6 hr strategic forecasts
– Research results directly improve CIWS products
• Aid traffic flow planning in complex weather scenarios– Provide common situational awareness– Couple forecasts with decision support tools
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MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
Ongoing Research to Improved Forecasts
Enhanced Winter Forecast Growth of New StormsUse of Satellite Growth Evidence0-2 hr Precipitation Phase Forecast
Snow Mix Rain
Knowledge of Frontal Forcing
Cold Front
Lake BreezeFront
Mountain Clutter
CIWS Winter Mode Forecast