CLIMATE REVIEW January – 23 February 2020

121st National Climate Outlook Forum Amihan Conference Room, PAGASA

26 January 2020

Recent ENSO Conditions

Weather Systems

Climate Assessment

Summary

Outline

Recent ENSO Conditions

SUMMARY CLIMATE

ASSESSMENT

WEATHER

SYSTEMS ENSO

ENSO INDICATORS Atmospheric Indicator

Oceanic Indicator Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST)

Data Source: Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) Data Source: Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

SUMMARY CLIMATE

ASSESSMENT

WEATHER

SYSTEMS ENSO

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

JAN

-18

FE

B-1

8

MA

R-1

8

AP

R-1

8

MA

Y-1

8

JUN

-18

JUL

-18

AU

G-1

8

SE

P-1

8

OC

T-1

8

NO

V-1

8

DE

C-1

8

JAN

-19

FE

B-1

9

MA

R-1

9

AP

R-1

9

MA

Y-1

9

JUN

-19

JUL

-19

AU

G-1

9

SE

P-1

9

OC

T-1

9

NO

V-1

9

DE

C-1

9

JAN

-20

PR

ESSU

RE

DIF

F.

MONTHLY SOI (JAN 2018 - JAN 2020)

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

JAN

-18

FE

B-1

8

MA

R-1

8

AP

R-1

8

MA

Y-1

8

JUN

-18

JUL

-18

AU

G-1

8

SE

P-1

8

OC

T-1

8

NO

V-1

8

DE

C-1

8

JAN

-19

FE

B-1

9

MA

R-1

9

AP

R-1

9

MA

Y-1

9

JUN

-19

JUL

-19

AU

G-1

9

SE

P-1

9

OC

T-1

9

NO

V-1

9

DE

C-1

9

JAN

-20

AN

OM

ALY

°C

MONTHLY SSTA (JAN 2018 - JAN 2020)

MCAO issued 04 February 2020:

• Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain at El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral and will likely to continue until the second half of 2020.

SUMMARY CLIMATE

ASSESSMENT

WEATHER

SYSTEMS ENSO

SUMMARY CLIMATE

ASSESSMENT

WEATHER

SYSTEMS ENSO

Weather Systems that affected the country from

January – 23 February 2020

SUMMARY CLIMATE

ASSESSMENT

WEATHER

SYSTEMS ENSO

Jan 2020

23 Feb 2020

SUMMARY CLIMATE

ASSESSMENT

WEATHER

SYSTEMS ENSO

LOW PRESSURE AREAS (LPAs)

INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE

(ITCZ)

NORTHEAST MONSOON

EASTERLIES

TAIL-END OF COLD FRONT

LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORMS

Percent of Normal = Actual Rainfall x 100% Normal Rainfall

Understanding our Rainfall Maps

PERCENTAGE (%) RAINFALL CONDITION

Less than 40 way below normal

41 – 80 below normal

81 – 120 near normal

Greater than 120 above normal

SUMMARY CLIMATE

ASSESSMENT

WEATHER

SYSTEMS ENSO

. JANUARY 2020

NORMAL (mm) 1981-2010

ACTUAL RAINFALL (mm) PERCENT NORMAL

ACTUAL MONTHLY RAINFALL

.

.

January 2020 PERCENT NORMAL

ACTUAL MONTHLY RAINFALL (%N)

Way Below Normal (16/83)

19%

Below Normal (23/83)

28% Near Normal (27/83)

33%

Above Normal (17/83)

20%

FEBRUARY 1-23, 2020 ACTUAL MONTHLY RAINFALL

. . NORMAL (mm)

1981-2010 ACTUAL RAINFALL (mm) PERCENT NORMAL

.

PROVINCE mm %N PROVINCE mm %N CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR) REGION VI (WESTERN VISAYAS)

ABRA 8.0 13.8 AKLAN 83.4 128.4

BENGUET 14.3 30.5 ANTIQUE 57.1 119.3

IFUGAO 22.2 28.1 CAPIZ 95.1 127.7

KALINGA 13.0 20.6 GUIMARAS 36.2 78.2

APAYAO 14.5 22.5 ILOILO 63.0 100.9

MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 15.8 24.2 NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 68.2 103.8

REGION I REGION VII (CENTRAL VISAYAS)

ILOCOS NORTE 7.4 10.2 NEGROS ORIENTAL 63.2 89.0

ILOCOS SUR 7.8 17.0 BOHOL 163.4 150.4

LA UNION 8.5 27.7 CEBU 128.9 150.7

PANGASINAN 6.3 26.0 SIQUIJOR 59.9 75.0

REGION II REGION VIII (EASTERN VISAYAS)

BATANES 15.5 14.2 BILIRAN 164.7 94.7

CAGAYAN 20.2 28.7 EASTERN SAMAR 214.7 78.1

ISABELA 30.7 30.6 LEYTE 193.3 107.1

NUEVA VIZCAYA 32.6 32.7 NORTHERN SAMAR 194.0 73.0

QUIRINO 47.1 37.6 SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 188.6 76.2

REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON) SOUTHERN LEYTE 264.3 145.7

BATAAN 19.8 257.9 REGION IX (ZAMBOANGA PENINSULA)

BULACAN 56.7 200.3 ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE 47.7 69.8

NUEVA ECIJA 31.0 58.1 ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 43.2 65.0

PAMPANGA 21.7 157.5 ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 45.1 72.2

TARLAC 5.3 50.4 REGION X (NORTHERN MINDANAO)

ZAMBALES 5.8 98.5 BUKIDNON 45.1 29.7

AURORA 68.6 54.8 CAMIGUIN 134.9 83.9

NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION LANAO DEL NORTE 35.1 37.1

METRO MANILA 49.3 344.4 MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 45.9 51.3

REGION IV-A (CALABARZON) MISAMIS ORIENTAL 72.4 42.3

BATANGAS 53.1 164.1 REGION XI (DAVAO REGION)

CAVITE 29.3 260.2 COMPOSTELA VALLEY 85.5 33.1

LAGUNA 82.7 179.8 DAVAO CITY 37.4 29.8

RIZAL 79.6 213.4 DAVAO DEL NORTE 54.7 26.9

QUEZON 136.3 120.2 DAVAO DEL SUR 40.4 38.9

REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA) DAVAO OCCIDENTAL 45.9 43.6

MARINDUQUE 103.7 106.2 DAVAO ORIENTAL 96.3 39.7

OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 37.0 105.2 REGION XII (SOCCSKSARGEN)

ORIENTAL MINDORO 53.3 100.0 SOUTH COTABATO 39.9 46.4

ROMBLON 72.9 106.8 COTABATO 38.7 37.0

PALAWAN 24.0 85.3 SARANGANI 41.4 46.6

REGION V (BICOL) SULTAN KUDARAT 42.3 47.0

ALBAY 80.1 53.2 REGION XIII- CARAGA

CAMARINES NORTE 137.7 90.2 AGUSAN DEL NORTE 127.3 46.7

CAMARINES SUR 75.0 54.3 AGUSAN DEL SUR 119.8 38.6

CATANDUANES 75.1 42.3 DINAGAT ISLANDS 247 91

MASBATE 111.2 89.7 SURIGAO DEL NORTE 230.3 74.1

SORSOGON 161.4 68.2 SURIGAO DEL SUR 173.0 47.6

ARMM

BASILAN 42.4 81.3

MAGUINDANAO 39.4 44.9

LANAO DEL SUR 35.3 35.0

SULU 35.6 69.3

TAWI-TAWI 29.1 83.0

ACTUAL RAINFALL PER PROVINCE (February 1-23, 2020)

JANUARY 2020 Temperature Assessment SUMMARY CLIMATE

ASSESSMENT

WEATHER

SYSTEMS ENSO

SUMMARY CLIMATE

ASSESSMENT

WEATHER

SYSTEMS ENSO OBSERVED TEMPERATURE EXTREMES

Highest 36.8oC Cotabato City (Jan 31) 36.1oC 1-18-1992

10.2oC Baguio City (Jan 31) 6.3 oC 1-18-1961

8.5oC BSU, La Trinidad (Jan 03, 30)

Highest 33.0 oC Science Garden, QC (Jan 27) 35.8oC 1-07-1989

Lowest 18.5 oC Science Garden, QC (Jan 31) 15.5 oC 1-27-1987

Highest 42.2 oC Tuguegarao (4-22-1912 & 5-11-1969) 38.6 oC Port Area, Manila (05-17-1915)

Lowest 6.3 oC Baguio (1-18-1961) 14.5 oC Port Area, Manila (01-11-1914)

Highest 36.8oC Cotabato City (Jan 31) 33.0 oC Science Garden, QC (Jan 27)

10.2oC Baguio City (Jan 31) 18.5 oC Science Garden, QC (Jan 31)

8.5oC BSU, La Trinidad (Jan 03, 30)

HISTORICAL RECORD

For: All Stations Monitored (All Months) For: Metro Manila Stations (All Months)

FOR: 2020 (JANUARY 1-31, 2020)

For: All Stations Monitored For: Metro Manila Stations

FOR: The Month of JANUARY 2020 (as of Jan 31)

Extremes for the month of JANUARY Station's Extreme Record (JANUARY)

For: Metro Manila Station's Extreme Record (JANUARY)

Lowest

Lowest

FEBRUARY 1-23, 2020 SUMMARY

CLIMATE

ASSESSMENT

WEATHER

SYSTEMS ENSO Temperature Assessment

SUMMARY CLIMATE

ASSESSMENT

WEATHER

SYSTEMS ENSO OBSERVED TEMPERATURE EXTREMES

Highest 37.3oC Cotabato City (Feb 23) 36.5oC 02-12-1992

9.4oC Baguio City (Feb 21) 6.7 oC 02-01-1963

6.3oC BSU, La Trinidad (Feb 4)

Highest 33.1 oC NAIA, Pasay City (Feb 22) 35.1oC 02-21-1998

Lowest 18.5 oC Science Garden, QC (Feb 1, 4) 15.1 oC 02-04-1987

Highest 42.2 oC Tuguegarao (4-22-1912 & 5-11-1969) 38.6 oC Port Area, Manila (05-17-1915)

Lowest 6.3 oC Baguio (1-18-1961) 14.5 oC Port Area, Manila (01-11-1914)

Highest 37.3oC Cotabato City (Feb 23) 33.1 oC NAIA, Pasay City (Feb 22)

9.4oC Baguio City (Feb 21) 18.5 oC Science Garden, QC (Feb 1, 4)

6.3oC BSU, La Trinidad (Feb 4)

For: Metro Manila Station's Extreme Record (FEBRUARY)

FOR: The Month of FEBRUARY 2020 (as of Feb 24)

Extremes for the month of FEBRUARY Station's Extreme Record (FEBRUARY)

Lowest

HISTORICAL RECORD

For: All Stations Monitored (All Months) For: Metro Manila Stations (All Months)

FOR: 2020 (JANUARY - FEBRUARY 24, 2020)

For: All Stations Monitored For: Metro Manila Stations

Lowest

SUMMARY CLIMATE

ASSESSMENT

WEATHER

SYSTEMS ENSO Temperature Assessment

SUMMARY CLIMATE

ASSESSMENT

WEATHER

SYSTEMS ENSO Temperature Assessment

ENSO Alert System Status Inactive (MCAO)

TC - None

Rainfall Temperature

January 2020

• Near to above normal rainfall conditions were experienced over most parts of Luzon , including most of Western and Eastern Visayas Region, Davao Region and SOCCSKSARGEN;

• The rest of Luzon, Central Visayas

and most areas of Mindanao received way below to below normal rainfall.

Near to above average surface air temperatures were felt over most parts of the country.

SUMMARY CLIMATE

ASSESSMENT

WEATHER

SYSTEMS ENSO

ENSO Alert System Status Inactive(MCAO)

TC - None

Rainfall Temperature

February 1-23, 2020 • Most parts of Northern Luzon,

Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region and Mindanao experienced way below to below normal rainfall condition;

• Near to above normal rainfall condition were observed over Central & Southern Luzon and Western & Central Visayas.

Near to slightly below average surface air temperatures were observed in most parts of the country.

SUMMARY CLIMATE

ASSESSMENT

WEATHER

SYSTEMS ENSO

Website: www.bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Facebook: www.facebook.com/pagasa.dost.gov.ph Twitter: @dost_pagasa

Typhoon 927-1541 Local 805

Flood Local 808

IEC Local 102/103

Climate Local 905/906

T H A N K YOU