climate change: a national and marine perspective david woolf national oceanography centre,...
TRANSCRIPT
Climate Change:A National and Marine
Perspective
David WoolfNational Oceanography Centre, Southampton
Outline• Global/Regional Warming and Sea Level Rise
– Temperature Change– Sea level Change
• Changes in Weather Patterns– Changes in Occurrence– Changes in Wave Heights
• THC Collapse– Ocean Circulation– Temperature Change– Sea Level Change
• Summary
Global Sea Level Rise
Changes in Weather Patterns
Our Variable Winters: The NAO
• Strong influence on European Climate• Not necessarily connected with Global Change• Definite influence on many surface parameters
Variability in Wintertime Wave Climate
• Variations in wave height coherent over large distances in response to major modes of atmospheric variability
• North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO
• East Atlantic Pattern, EAP
NAO
EAP
Variability in Weather Patterns
• Future Climate Changes can be expressed as changes in main patterns, e.g.
• North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO
• East Atlantic Pattern, EAP
• NAO predicted to go positive
THCCollapse?
Slowing of Atlantic conveyor:
~30%
0
5
10
15
20
25
Volume transport
(Million cubic metres per
second)
1957 1981 1992 1998 2004
Year
~30%
After Bryden et al (Nature, 2005)
Combined effect of Greenhouse Gases and THC Collapse
Sea Level Rise with THC Collapse
Summary
• Global Warming is Real
• But the detail is uncertain. Expect the Unexpected
• Probable outcomes include sea level rise and an increase in storminess. Thus affecting
Coastal Defences
Offshore Engineering
Renewable Energy