climate change and food security

Climate Change and Climate Change and Food SecurityFood Security

Joachim von BraunJoachim von BraunInternational Food Policy Research InstituteInternational Food Policy Research Institute

IPC and ICTSD Seminar “Climate Change, Agriculture, and IPC and ICTSD Seminar “Climate Change, Agriculture, and Trade: Promoting Policy Coherence”Trade: Promoting Policy Coherence”Washington DC, October 29, 2009Washington DC, October 29, 2009

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, November 2009

Big picture of climate change Big picture of climate change policy challengespolicy challenges


Challenges of getting to a Challenges of getting to a global climate change regime global climate change regime

• Questions of global climate justice, historic Questions of global climate justice, historic liability, equal rightsliability, equal rights

• Equitable cost-sharing for mitigation and Equitable cost-sharing for mitigation and adaption (per capita)adaption (per capita)

• The Kyoto Protocol has large shortcomingsThe Kyoto Protocol has large shortcomings

A more efficient global regime on basis of int’l A more efficient global regime on basis of int’l cooperation is neededcooperation is needed


17 Gt of reductions below ‘BAU’ required by 2020 for a 17 Gt of reductions below ‘BAU’ required by 2020 for a 450ppm pathway with (40-60% chance of 2 degrees)450ppm pathway with (40-60% chance of 2 degrees)

Global GHG emissions, Gt CO2e per year

50

55

60

65

70

75

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

0

40

45

52

61

70

50

55

60

65

70

75

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

0

40

4544

35

-17

-35

Reference pathway‘BAU’

450ppm pathway (with overshoot)

Change relative to 199017 -7

Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Houghton; IEA; US EPA; den Elzen, van Vuuren; Project Catalyst analysis


Proposed solutionsProposed solutions

• Commitment by int’l community to set climate change Commitment by int’l community to set climate change mitigation as a prioritymitigation as a priority

• Equitable burden sharingEquitable burden sharing

• Deterring sanction system against free-ridersDeterring sanction system against free-riders

• Global carbon price establishmentGlobal carbon price establishment

• Aggressive emission reductions by industrialized Aggressive emission reductions by industrialized countriescountries

• Major funding for technology cooperation and transferMajor funding for technology cooperation and transfer

• Slower emissions growth in emerging economiesSlower emissions growth in emerging economies

• Monitoring and verificationMonitoring and verification

Source: GES 2009.Source: GES 2009.


Dealing with Dealing with agricultureagriculture by by appropriate integration into a appropriate integration into a Copenhagen agreement and Copenhagen agreement and

beyondbeyond


Taking a dual perspective on climate Taking a dual perspective on climate change and food securitychange and food security

1.1. Address climate change in the Address climate change in the context of food securitycontext of food security

2.2. Address food security in the Address food security in the context of climate changecontext of climate change

Not each in isolation!Not each in isolation!

This way find common grounds between This way find common grounds between developing and developed countriesdeveloping and developed countries


Agriculture and climate change: Agriculture and climate change: part of the problem and the solutionpart of the problem and the solution

Agriculture part of the Agriculture part of the problemproblem: : 14% of CO14% of CO2 2 emissionsemissions

Agriculture part of the Agriculture part of the solutionsolution: : Biomass; COBiomass; CO22

sequestration; soil management sequestration; soil management (source: IPCC 2007)(source: IPCC 2007)


COCO22 emissions by country and sector emissions by country and sector

Source: World Bank and IEA 2007; USEPA 2005; Houghton Source: World Bank and IEA 2007; USEPA 2005; Houghton 2006.2006.


Location-specific Biological and Location-specific Biological and Socioeconomic Modeling is CriticalSocioeconomic Modeling is Critical

• Climate change brings Climate change brings location-specificlocation-specific changes changes- in precipitation, temperature and variability toin precipitation, temperature and variability to- local agronomic and market conditionslocal agronomic and market conditions

• Modeling challenge – Reconcile Modeling challenge – Reconcile - limited resolution of macro-level economic models limited resolution of macro-level economic models

with with - crop model detailcrop model detail

• ResultResult- More realistic modeling of climate change effects More realistic modeling of climate change effects

(biological and economic) on global/regional (biological and economic) on global/regional agricultureagriculture

Source: Nelson, IFPRI, 2009


Global Change Model Components, IFPRI Global Change Model Components, IFPRI

• GCM climate scenariosGCM climate scenarios- NCAR (wetter) and CSIRO (drier) using SRES NCAR (wetter) and CSIRO (drier) using SRES

A2A2• DSSAT crop modelDSSAT crop model- Crop response to local climate, soil and Crop response to local climate, soil and

nitrogen appliednitrogen applied• ISPAM ISPAM - Spatial distribution of crops in 2000 based on Spatial distribution of crops in 2000 based on

crop calendars, soil characteristics, climate crop calendars, soil characteristics, climate of 20 most important cropsof 20 most important crops

• IMPACT2009IMPACT2009- Global food supply-demand-trade modeling Global food supply-demand-trade modeling

to 2050 with global hydrologyto 2050 with global hydrology

Source: G. Nelson, et.al. IFPRI, 2009


Climate induced percentage change in Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: production in 2050: Irrigated riceIrrigated rice

Global production = -27%Global production = -27%

NCAR A2a

Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.


Climate induced percentage change in Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: production in 2050: Rainfed maizeRainfed maize


NCAR A2a



Climate induced percentage change in Climate induced percentage change in production in 2050: production in 2050: Irrigated wheatIrrigated wheat

NCAR A2a




Climate change impact: Climate change impact: Global food prices, 2050 Global food prices, 2050

Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009Source: Nelson et al. (IFPRI) 2009.


Climate change impact: Climate change impact: Child malnutritionChild malnutrition

Part of the silent

climate change

health crisis



Climate change impact: Climate change impact: Net cereal tradeNet cereal trade


(Negative values indicate net imports)(Negative values indicate net imports)


Trade promotes coordination of Trade promotes coordination of environmental policiesenvironmental policies

• Trade may Trade may - Provide opportunities for linkage between Provide opportunities for linkage between

environmental and trade concessionsenvironmental and trade concessions- Facilitate implicit side paymentsFacilitate implicit side payments- Grant countries direct leverage over other Grant countries direct leverage over other

countries’ productioncountries’ production- Instill perception of shared goalsInstill perception of shared goals

Example: Water pollution is lower in rivers shared Example: Water pollution is lower in rivers shared between countries with more trade between countries with more trade (analysis using (analysis using data from the UN Global Environmental Monitoring System)data from the UN Global Environmental Monitoring System)

Source: Ringler, Biswas, Cline (eds.) 2009Source: Ringler, Biswas, Cline (eds.) 2009.


The ongoing policy debate and The ongoing policy debate and potential actions potential actions


Agriculture-related terms in the Bonn Agriculture-related terms in the Bonn conference negotiating text* June 2009 conference negotiating text* June 2009

Source: Global Donor Platform for Rural Development 2009.Source: Global Donor Platform for Rural Development 2009.

*Revised Negotiating text June 22, 2009.*Revised Negotiating text June 22, 2009.


What costs agricultural adaptation ? What costs agricultural adaptation ? IFPRI Model AssumptionsIFPRI Model Assumptions

• 60% increase in all crop yield growth over 60% increase in all crop yield growth over baselinebaseline

• 30% increase in animal numbers growth30% increase in animal numbers growth

• 40% increase in production growth of oils and 40% increase in production growth of oils and mealsmeals

• 25% increase in irrigated area growth25% increase in irrigated area growth

• 15% decrease in rainfed area growth15% decrease in rainfed area growth

• 0.15% increase in basin water efficiency by 20500.15% increase in basin water efficiency by 2050



Additional Additional annualannual agricultural adaptation agricultural adaptation funding required: +US$ 7 billionfunding required: +US$ 7 billion

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

Developing countries

Agric. research 314 172 1,316

Irrigation expansion 537 344 907

Irrigation efficiency 187 999 2,158

Rural roads 2,015 17 2,737

Total 3,053 1,531 7,118

Expenditure to counteract climate change effects on child nutrition by 2050 (million 2000 US$)


The mix of investments differs by regionThe mix of investments differs by region


• Agricultural research, water management, and Agricultural research, water management, and rural investmentrural investment

- Crop breeding for both irrigated and rainfed Crop breeding for both irrigated and rainfed agricultureagriculture

- Biotechnology for stress tolerant materials to Biotechnology for stress tolerant materials to address drought- and heat-tolerance, salinization address drought- and heat-tolerance, salinization

- Water harvesting, minimum tillage, integrated soil Water harvesting, minimum tillage, integrated soil fertility management etc.fertility management etc.

- Rural infrastructure investment to improve access Rural infrastructure investment to improve access to markets, risk insurance, credit, inputsto markets, risk insurance, credit, inputs

Adaptation for increasing agricultural Adaptation for increasing agricultural productivityproductivity

Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.


Agricultural mitigation policyAgricultural mitigation policy

• Include carbon sequestration from soil carbon in Include carbon sequestration from soil carbon in global carbon trading systemglobal carbon trading system

• Fund development and implementation of low-cost Fund development and implementation of low-cost monitoring systemsmonitoring systems

• Allow innovative payment mechanisms and Allow innovative payment mechanisms and support for novel institutions for agricultural support for novel institutions for agricultural mitigationmitigation

• Create institutional innovations linking Create institutional innovations linking communities to global markets e.g. regional communities to global markets e.g. regional centers for carbon tradingcenters for carbon trading

Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009Source: Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.

Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, November 2009 Source: McKinsey, 2009

Developing countries require different Developing countries require different types of support for mitigation activitiestypes of support for mitigation activities

Energy efficiency in buildings, transportation

and industry

Demos / investmentin emerging

technologies

Agriculture and forestry

Developing country abatement cost curve, 2020 (up to costs of €60/t)

Support to overcome barriers (best practice

info, capacity building,loans)

Support to compensate incremental costs, e.g. through offset market or

grants

Support to compensate incremental costs

(grants) and international cooperation

Power supply

8 10 12 142 4 6*

Cost of abatement € / ton

Forestry Agriculture Industry Power Transport Buildings

0

20

40

60

-20

-80

-60

-40

Technology follows investment

Abatement potential Gt CO2e


Enhance market incentives to realize Enhance market incentives to realize environmental and social benefits environmental and social benefits

• Develop and promote markets for Develop and promote markets for carbon payments at appropriate scale carbon payments at appropriate scale and speedand speed

• What is the role of COWhat is the role of CO2 2 trading? trading?

- partly complementarypartly complementary

- partly competitivepartly competitive

• Only 3-4% of carbon trading sourced Only 3-4% of carbon trading sourced from agriculture, land use change, agro-from agriculture, land use change, agro-forestry and forestryforestry and forestry


Tradeoffs and win-winsTradeoffs and win-wins

• Tradeoffs occur between GHG emissions of Tradeoffs occur between GHG emissions of agric. and related mitigation action:agric. and related mitigation action:

- COCO22 sequestration in the short term leads to sequestration in the short term leads to

competition with food-fuel-fiber production and competition with food-fuel-fiber production and food security risksfood security risks

- ButBut GMOs may reduce tradeoffs GMOs may reduce tradeoffs

• Dynamics and potential win-wins:Dynamics and potential win-wins:- If agric If agric R&DR&D investments have higher share investments have higher share- As As payments for environmental services payments for environmental services

increase agric. productivity in the long termincrease agric. productivity in the long term


A technology transfer package for A technology transfer package for Copenhagen Copenhagen (New Delhi conference Oct 22-23, 2009)(New Delhi conference Oct 22-23, 2009)

• enhanced technological cooperation, joint research enhanced technological cooperation, joint research and development of new technologies and products; and development of new technologies and products;

• periodic assessment, evaluation and expert guidance periodic assessment, evaluation and expert guidance on new and emerging technologies; on new and emerging technologies;

• technology financing, in particular public financing; technology financing, in particular public financing; • Public goods rather than IPRPublic goods rather than IPR• improve access to and deployment of technologies.improve access to and deployment of technologies.

Copy Green Revolution CGIAR - as a model for research Copy Green Revolution CGIAR - as a model for research collaboration on climate change technologies: collaboration on climate change technologies: creation of an international network of Climate creation of an international network of Climate Innovation Centers (CICs) as vehicles for enhancing Innovation Centers (CICs) as vehicles for enhancing technology innovation and capacity building in technology innovation and capacity building in developing countriesdeveloping countries


The broad directions for food security The broad directions for food security conscious climate change policy conscious climate change policy

1.1. An efficient and fair An efficient and fair globalglobal climate regime is needed climate regime is needed

2.2. The The food security food security effects of climate change must be effects of climate change must be important determinants for policy; important determinants for policy;

3.3. Investment for Investment for agriculture’s GHG neutralityagriculture’s GHG neutrality must not must not be delayedbe delayed

4.4. Invest in Invest in adaptation in developmental waysadaptation in developmental ways; $ 7 billn. ; $ 7 billn. p.a.p.a.

5.5. Climate stress requires to more Climate stress requires to more open tradeopen trade

6.6. Carbon market opportunities for agriculture Carbon market opportunities for agriculture must not must not undermine food securityundermine food security

7.7. Combining agric. Combining agric. carbon market participation with carbon market participation with sound agricultural R&Dsound agricultural R&D promises win-win promises win-win


IFPRI on the webIFPRI on the web http://www.ifpri.org/ http://www.ifpri.org/

climate change and food security

Technology

climate change impact

climate change mitigation

context of climate change

local climate

ictsd seminar climate

global hydrology source

global change model

sector source