Climate change and crop threats

Bill ClarkDirector

Broom’s Barn Research Centre

Broom’s Barn Research

Current cropped areas

Broom’s Barn Research

Future Cropping Areas

Cropping restricted by temperature, light and water availability

Broom’s Barn Research

Broom’s Barn Research

Wetter winters

Drier summers

Hotter summers

Broom’s Barn Research

Black stem rust

Broom’s Barn Research

Colorado BeetleCurrent 2050

Broom’s Barn Research

Worse Better• Wheat bulb fly• BYDV• Pea moth• Carrot fly• Slugs

• Gout fly• Wheat stem sawfly• Aphids• Cereal leaf beetle• Wireworm• Colorado beetle• Root Knot nematodes• PCN• Diamond back moth• Cutworm

Broom’s Barn Research

BlackgrassCurrent 2050

Dry summers

Broom’s Barn Research

Cropping changes significant

• Wider range for some crops – maize.• Existing crops will change growth rate and

timings of treatment

• Wheat - flowering up to 14 days earlier by 2050

Broom’s Barn Research

Future fungicide strategies

GS32 GS33/37 GS39 GS59/65 GS65

T1

T2

T3

T0

Mild winters, warm summers:Septoria,Brown rust / Yellow rust

Broom’s Barn Research

Future fungicide strategies

GS32 GS39 GS39 GS59 GS65

T1

T2

T0

Mild winters, warm summers:Advanced growth stages,DroughtEarly ripening,Shorter grain filling

Very short

Broom’s Barn Research

UK Crop yieldsUK Yields 1976-2006

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Yiel

d t/h

a

Oilseed rapeWheat

Broom’s Barn Research

Cropping changes• More maize in rotation?• Maize also susceptible to, and a

host of Fusarium graminearum.• Expect more ear blight in wheat.• Warmer summers means risk

will be higher in the north and Scotland.

• More erratic weather patterns.• Higher levels of mycotoxins.

Broom’s Barn Research

Threats to production

Black Stem Rust • Favoured by:

Hot days (25-30ºC), Mild nights (15-20ºC), Wet leaves

Broom’s Barn Research

Threats to production

• High temperature strains.

• New isolates have shorter latent periods and greater spore germination at 18ºC than at 12ºC.

• Isolates sporulate 2 days sooner and have double the germination percentage of old isolates at 18ºC.

Broom’s Barn Research

Threats to production• Very short latent

period.• Little eradicant activity

of fungicides.• Needs new spray

timing strategies.

Broom’s Barn Research

S. tritici v Tan Spot

EpoxiconazoleMetconazoleFluquinconazoleCyproconazoleChlorothalonilTebuconazoleProchloraz

EpoxiconazoleMetconazoleFluquinconazoleCyproconazoleChlorothalonilTebuconazoleProchloraz

Broom’s Barn Research

Climate change and disease• ‘New’ diseases will appear

Tan spot / Black stem rust

• Existing diseases will adaptYellow rust

• Existing diseases will thriveBrown rust

Broom’s Barn Research

Current Fungicide strategy

T1

T0

T2T3

GS32 GS39 GS65

Broom’s Barn Research

Fungicide strategy

Rusts/ Septoria

Leaf and Ear disease

EyespotRusts / Septoria

Rusts

Rust/Septoria

GS32 GS39 GS65

Broom’s Barn Research

Will current fungicide strategies cope?

GS32 GS39 GS65

T1

T0

T2T3

Earlier

Broom’s Barn Research

Future fungicide strategy

GS32 GS33/37 GS39 GS59/65 GS65

T1

T2

T3

T0

Earlier

Broom’s Barn Research

Future strategies

Broom’s Barn Research

SUMMARY• We will face new threats.• Many because of cropping changes• More fungicide inputs.• More costly programmes.• Adapt current timings.• Continuing reliance on triazoles.• Anti-resistance strategies.• New products will have limited impact.

Climate change research

Bill ClarkDirector

Broom’s Barn Research Centre

Broom’s Barn Research

Broom’s Barn Research

40 days

20 days?

Broom’s Barn Research

Fungicide strategyOpus/Bravo

Comet

Caramba/Comet

Tracker/ Bravo

Epona/Baytan

Cypro+Bravo

GS32 GS39 GS65

Broom’s Barn Research

Progress slowingWorld Grain Yields

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1.5

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3.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Yield t/ha

Annual %increase

Broom’s Barn Research

Oilseed rape TuYV

Broom’s Barn Research

OSR and TuYV• The main virus vector is the peach-potato aphid, Myzus

persicae. • Milder autumns mean more survival of the aphids and

more spread of the virus overwinter.• Sampling of M. persicae populations in the UK have

shown that up to 72% of winged M. persicae carry TuYV.• Broom’s Barn Research shown that TuYV can decrease

yields by up to 26%. • Recent work in Australia has shown yield losses up to

46%.

Current work on seed treatments, spray timing, aphid monitoring, varietal resistance.