Climate Change, Extreme Events, and HurricaneSandy: From Non-Stationary Climate to

Non-Stationary Policy

William SoleckiCity University of New York – Hunter College

2Source: NOAA

Hurricane Sandy, 28 October 2012

2013

5

Source: PlaNYC 2013

NYC PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE

7

Storm Surge – Now and Future

8Source: PlaNYC 2013

9Source: PlaNYC 2013

10Source: PlaNYC 2013

11Source: PlaNYC 2013

Source: New York City Panel on Climate Change (2014)

New York City Climate Adaptation Process

13Source: NPCC, 2010

Stakeholder Task Force

City-wide Sustainability Office

Expert Panel

CWW

P

T

E

Mayor or City Official

Stakeholders - City Agencies- Regional Authorities- Private Corporations

Integration across Sector-specific Working Groups - Energy (E) - Transportation (T)

- Policy (P) -Water & Waste (WW)

- Communications (C)

Expert Knowledge Providers

- University scholars and private sector experts

- Social, biological, and physical scientists

- Legal and insurance experts

- Risk management professionals

High-Level Buy-In

Coordinating Role

Climate Risk Information

Adaptation Assessment Guidelines

Climate Protection Levels

Critical Infrastructure

14

PlaNYC 2013 – Released 11 June 2013

NYC Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency

• Addresses how to rebuild New York City to be more resilient in the wake of Sandy but with a long term ‐focus on:– 1) how to rebuild locally; and– 2) how to improve citywide infrastructure and building

resilience• A comprehensive report in June 2013 addresses

these challenges by investigating three key questions:– What happened during and after Sandy and why?– What is the likely risk to NYC as the climate changes and

the threat of future storms and severe weather increases?– What to do in the coastal neighborhoods and citywide

infrastructure

Freeboard “Freeboard” is the practice of elevating a building’s lowest floor above the Base Flood Elevation (BFE) by a small additional height, typically 1 to 2 feet above FEMA minimum height requirements, depending on building type (2 feet for single and two- family residences and 1 foot for most other buildings). The benefits of freeboard include an additional margin of safety to protect against more severe storms and increased future flood risks from rising sea levels. Additionally, FEMA recognizes that freeboard significantly reduces flood risk and provides substantial reductions in flood insurance premiums.

Freeboard

17

Disaster Response and How Might Hurricane Sandy Points to Wider Transitions and Transformations

• After a disaster, response typically is focused on addressing failures and cost-benefit calculations in the context of future risk probability

• Hurricane Sandy response also is often discussed in the context of climate change

• Movement from disaster recovery to disaster rebuilding and resilience

• Change in conceptualization of extreme events– From discrete acute events to events as part of a chronic process– Looking into future dynamics as much as the present and past

• The question is being asked whether climate change impacts will be like other urban environment-related crises

Final Considerations• Tying policy directly to

changing climate science• Building flexible

adaption directly into the legal and regulatory framework

• Opportunities for transformation – extreme events

• Solution space – policy, regulation, and codes; translation into the realm of engineering and equity…next steps

Intense rainfall – panhandle Florida April 2014 Extreme Rain Event – Long Island NY August 2014

Thank You

Recent References• Solecki, W. and Rosenzweig, C. (2014). Climate change, extreme

events, and Hurricane Sandy: From Non-Stationary Climate to Non-Stationary Policy. Journal of Extreme Events. 1(1): 5-25.

• Rosenzweig, C. & Solecki, W. (2014). Hurricane Sandy and adaptation pathways in New York: Lessons from a first-responder city. Global Environmental Change 28: 395-408.