Prof. Martin Williams, Sean Beevers, Nutthida Kitwiroon, Heather Walton, David Dajnak (KCL), Melissa Lott,(UCL), Daniela Fecht, Mireille Toledano (Imperial College)

Presentation to Better Homes, Better Air, Better Health, London 12 April, 2017

Climate change policies and their impact on air pollution and health

UK Climate Change Act 2008

• The UK has set a target of 80% reduction in CO2 equivalents by 2050 (on a 1990 base)

• Making the right choices to achieve the Climate Change Act target offers potentially the biggest air quality & public health improvements since the Clean Air Act of 1956

• BUT – the policies need to be carefully chosen to avoid unnecessary adverse public health impacts –e.g. minimise diesel, biomass, CHP use in urban centres 2

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2010 Baseline reference lowGHG nuclear replace

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Primary Energy Consumption in 2050 (PJ)

Biomass and biofuels Coal and coke Electricity import Natural Gas

Liquid hydrogen imports Oil and oil products Renewables Nuclear

Primary PM10 emissions don’t decrease – non –exhaust emissions important (toxicity?)

Hourly ozone concentrations

Modelling UK Major cities at 20m resolution

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2017

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2149Lifeyearslostperyear

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PM2.5 LGHGandNRPOscenariodifferencesinlifeyearsperyearfromcurrentclimatechangepolicy

LGHG/baselinedifferenceinlifeyearsperyear

NRPO/baselinedifferenceinlifeyearsperyear

Exposure to NO2/deprivation stratified by Ward

Conclusions and Policy Messages• Urban levels of NO2 should decrease significantly• PM concentrations should also decrease• BUT further policies to attain the CCA 2050 target may

not give any additional public health benefit beyond policies already in place

• The incentivisation of biomass will lead to an increase in exposure to primary PM combustion products, including carcinogens in the period 2030-2035

• Non-exhaust PM concentrations will probably increase –how toxic are they?

• Ozone impacts could go either way – threshold?