climate change risk assessment - second stakeholder event
TRANSCRIPT
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UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Second stakeholder workshop
London School of Economics
17 September 2015
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Welcome and agenda
Daniel Johns
Head of Adaptation, ASC Secretariat
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Aims of this workshop
To provide information to stakeholders on how the CCRA Evidence Report is progressing
To present emerging findings and gather feedback
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Workshop agenda
10:05 – 10:15 Introduction to the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment - Lord Krebs, chair of the Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC)
10:15 – 10:35 The Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report - Kathryn Humphrey, CCRA programme lead, ASC secretariat
10:40 – 11:25 Breakout 1: Chapter-specific discussions
11:25 – 11:45 Coffee break
11:45 – 12:30 Breakout 2: Chapter-specific discussions
12:30 – 12:50 CCRA Research projects - Daniel Johns, head of ASC secretariat
12:50 – 13:00 Wrap up and next steps - Lord Krebs, chair of ASC
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Introduction to the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment
Lord John Krebs
Chair, Adaptation Sub-Committee
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The Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC)
Statutory roles:
• To provide advice to Government on the Climate Change Risk Assessment (advisory role)
• To report to Parliament on progress towards adaptation in England (scrutiny role)
Prof Lord John Krebs (chair)
Prof Dame Anne Johnson
Sir Graham Wynne
Prof Sam Fankhauser
Prof Martin Parry
Prof Jim Hall
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The ASC’s role in the UK adaptation policy cycle
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The Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017
The Climate Change Risk Assessment is a statutory requirement of the Climate Change Act, to be published every 5 years. First CCRA published in 2012.
For this cycle of the CCRA, the Government has asked the Adaptation Sub-Committee to prepare an independent evidence report, to be published by July 2016.
The report will set out the latest understanding of key risks and opportunities for the UK from climate change.
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The Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017
‘EXAM’ QUESTION FOR THE CCRA EVIDENCE REPORT :
“Based on our latest understanding of current, and future, climate risks/opportunities, vulnerability and adaptation,
what should the priorities be for the next National Adaptation Programme and adaptation programmes of the
devolved administrations?’
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CCC Adaptation Sub-Committee and secretariat
9 independent lead contributors
• Rachel Warren, University of East Anglia
• Iain Brown, James Hutton Institute
• Richard Dawson, Newcastle University
• Sari Kovats, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
• Dan Osborn, University College London
• Swenja Surminski, London School of Economics
• Neil Adger, Exeter University
• Andy Challinor, Leeds University
• Roger Street, UKCIP
60 contributing authors
Who is working on the CCRA 2017 evidence report?
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New studies: four NERC-funded research projects
Project A: Flood risk projections for all four
UK nations
Project B: Updated projections of water
availability for the UK
Project C: Climate change impacts on the
UK’s natural assets
Project D: Development of high-end scenarios for
a number of climate impacts
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The CCRA Evidence Report
Kathryn Humphrey
CCRA programme lead, ASC secretariat
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Reminder – differences between 2012 and 2017 CCRAs
CCRA2012 CCRA2017
11 sector reports + 1 synthesis + 3 national summaries
1 evidence report + 4 national summaries + 4 research projects
Authored by consultants (signed off by Defra)
Authored by independent academics, consultants and ASC, signed off by ASC
Focussed on magnitude and confidence
Focussed on urgency
Mix of existing data and new analysis Mostly synthesis of existing analysis
Did not include effects of planned adaptation or socio-economic change (beyond population growth)
Will include an assessment of the effects of adaptation and socio-economic change on risk.
Did not quantify international effects Will include a chapter on international effects.
Cost - £3 million Cost - £1 million
CCRA2012 available here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment-government-report
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CC
RA
Evid
ence
Rep
ort
1.Introduction
2.Approach
3. Natural environment
4.Infrastructure
5.People & built environment
6.Business
7.International dimensions
8.Cross-cutting issues
Evidence Report structure
Executive Summary
England summary
Scotland summary
Wales summary
Northern Ireland summary
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1.Assess current vulnerability to climate, adaptation
2.Assess future risks and adaptation
3.Summarise priorities for 2018-2022
• Current climate
• Current socio-economics
• Scale of current adaptation, capacity
• Future climate
• Future socio-economic change
• Effects of planned/autonomous adaptation
• Summarise the most urgent priorities
• …including priorities for action, research, capacity building or ‘watching brief’
CCRA method – three steps for each chapter
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Outputs – Urgency scores
Urgency = the degree to which it is felt that action is needed to reduce a risk or realise an
opportunity from climate change.
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Urgency categories
1.Act Now: new or stronger Government policies or implementation activity are needed in the next five years to reduce long-term vulnerability to climate change. 2.Research Priority: new research is needed in the next five years to fill significant evidence gaps or reduce the uncertainty in the current level of understanding. 3.Capacity Building: further action is needed in the next five years to improve the adaptive capacity of people and organisations so that appropriate long-term decisions can be made that account for climate change. 4.Watching Brief: current policies or levels of activity (which may be little) are appropriate on the basis of the current evidence, given uncertainty in long-term projections, the potential for autonomous adaptation, or relatively short lead times should further action be needed at some stage. The evidence in these areas should be kept under review, with long-term monitoring of risk levels and adaptation activity.
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Milestones
• Winter 2013 – CCRA method developed • March – May 2014 – Call for evidence • June 2014 – Lead contributors selected • July 2014 – Research projects started • September 2014 – Contributing authors and peer reviewers selected • Autumn 2014 – First stakeholder meeting • Spring 2015 – Policy workshops and DA workshops • Spring 2015 – Chapter drafting begins • September 2015 – CCRA research projects published • October 2015 – Draft report sent out for first round of review • December 2015- Draft report sent to Defra • January – March 2016- Final drafting amends • April 2016- Final draft report sent out for second round of review • July 2016- CCRA evidence report published • January 2017- CCRA Government report published
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Breakouts
Daniel Johns
Head of Adaptation, ASC Secretariat
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Chapter-specific breakouts
10:40 – 11:25 Breakout 1
Chapter 3: Natural environment – Main room (here)
Chapter 4: Infrastructure - Weston studio (6th floor - follow me)
Chapter 7: International dimensions – Three Tuns (1st floor - follow Manuela)
11:25 – 11:45 Coffee break – Main room (here)
11:45 – 12:30 Breakout 2
Chapter 5: People and the built environment - Main room (here)
Chapter 6: Business - Three Tuns (1st floor)
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CCRA research projects
Daniel Johns
Head of Adaptation, ASC Secretariat
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New studies: four NERC-funded research projects
Project A: Flood risk projections for all four
UK nations
Project B: Updated projections of water
availability for the UK
Project C: Climate change impacts on the
UK’s natural assets
Project D: Development of high-end scenarios for
a number of climate impacts
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Project A: Purpose and Objectives
Construct an emulator of the UK flood risk system (FFE – Future Flood Explorer) to produce projections of future flood risk.
All sources - rivers, sea, surface water and groundwater
2020s, 2050s, 2080s
4 UK countries- England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales
Under a 2oC and 4oC rise in mean global temperatures, as well as a H++ scenario
Includes for zero, low and high growth population scenarios
Applies range of adaptation scenarios based on combination of actions to reduce (a) probability of flooding (defences, coastal realignment, SuDS), (b) exposure (spatial planning, insurance) and (c) vulnerability (warning systems, property level protection)
2014-2015 CCRA 2017: Project B Water Resources Page 23
Project A: Future flood risk
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Results: Changes in EAD assuming continuation of current levels of adaptation and no population growth
Project A: Future flood risk
Expected annual damages (£ million) from river, coastal and surface water flooding. 2080s projection assumes: - current levels of
adaptation continue
- no population growth/new development
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Results: effect of different adaptation scenarios
• Both Expected Annual Damages (EAD) and the number of properties at high risk are expected to increase significantly under all climate change and population growth scenarios
• All sources of flooding are expected to increase, but river flooding is projected to remain the most significant cause of flood damages
• Continuation of current levels of adaptation in the future will not be sufficient to completely offset all of the projected increase in risk
• Enhancing current levels of adaptation could potentially manage the increased risk under a 2oC rise in global temperatures, but will not be enough to manage the risk under 4oC
• Rising sea levels could result in significant lengths of critical coastal defences becoming vulnerable to failure – a further 0.5m sea level rise is expected to make 20% of coastal defences highly vulnerable
Project A: Future flood risk
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Project B: Purpose and Objectives
Produce water supply-demand projections for the UK:
To 2100
Range of emissions scenarios
Consistency with Government projections and water company plans
4 UK countries- England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales
Include different socio-economic futures (population)
Include effects of adaptation
Assess impacts of droughts
2014-2015 CCRA 2017: Project B Water Resources Page 26
Project B: Future flood
risk
Project B: Water availability projections
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Metrics
Public water supply:
• Supply demand balance (per capita litres/day), for:
• Water resource zones
• 2030s, 50s, 80s
• H/M/L climate
• H/M/L population
• For different degrees of adaptation.
All sectors (abstraction):
• Available resource and demand (Ml/day, %) for:
• WFD bodies, summarised into larger catchments
• 2050 and 2080
• H/M/L climate
• H/M/L population
• Different degrees of adaptation.
Project B: Water availability projections
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Results: Current supply-demand balance, public water supply
• Some WRZs report modest deficits for the present day (in yellow)
• Overall the UK has a surplus of around 2,000 Ml/d in addition to an ‘uncertainty’ headroom buffer of about 1,000 Ml/d.
• Those WRZs in deficit can use their buffer headroom to make up the shortfall.
• Overall, current public water supply provision is considered to be adequate.
Project B: Water availability projections
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Results: Future supply-demand balance, public water supply
• High population and high climate and no additional action adaptation scenario
2050. Widespread pattern of deficits. In particular south-east of England and the large conjunctive use zones in the north of England (in red/orange).
All countries in deficit to some extent except Scotland, but localised deficit in Edinburgh and Lothian (in light orange).
2080. More acute deficit, especially England. All countries in deficit.
Supply-demand balance for 2050s under high population, high climate change projections and a no additional action adaptation scenario.
Project B: Water availability projections
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• Availability.
Negligible difference between baseline and lower bound projections of natural flows. Large reduction in natural available resource under the upper bound projections in 2050 and 2080 (red areas shows where demand outstrips supply).
• EFI approach.
The approach to environmental flow indicators has a very large influence on whether there is any natural available resource for human uses, particularly in the west of the UK. Upland catchments tend to be most affected.
Results: Future supply-demand balance, all sectors
Abstraction demand in the 2080s as a percentage of the available resource at the average of Q95 and Q70 low flows and fixed EFIs
Project B: Water availability projections
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Project C: Analysis
Clean water
• Literature review to provide evidence of how climate change may exacerbate several drivers of poor water quality: nutrients, combined sewer overspills, dissolved organic carbon, and over-abstraction.
Natural carbon stores
• GIS analysis of soil and vegetation carbon storage overlaid with NEA land use and climate change scenarios; outputs in terms of changes in carbon stocks on a 1km grid.
Wildlife
• Modelling of projected changes in UK-wide species distribution based on data for 4,000 species, providing maps of gains/losses of species at 10km square resolution.
Project C: Impacts on
natural assets
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Results: wildlife, local extinction probability
Areas likely to see local extinctions for low, medium and high climate scenarios across all taxonomic groups. Blue = low probability, red = high probability
Project C: Impacts on
natural assets
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Results summary Project C:
Impacts on natural assets
Clean water • Climate change could exacerbate existing (natural and anthropogenic)
drivers of nutrient enrichment with changes in the seasonality of precipitation a critical factor.
• Concentrations of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) have risen with increases attributable to less acid rain but also land management and extreme weather events. This can affect water colouration, with implications for drinking water treatment costs.
Natural carbon stores • ‘World markets’ (urban development, intensive agriculture) and high climate
change would lead to significant losses in soil carbon by end of the century • Significant gains in carbon are possible under alternative land use scenarios
involving high levels of tree planting and soil conservation Wildlife • Uplands and northern areas of UK have highest risk of species extinctions • Mosses are most vulnerable out of those considered – important for clean
water, carbon storage etc. Least able to adapt to changes in climate space.
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Project D: Purpose and objectives
An experimental project to derive high++ scenarios for variables other than sea level rise and storm surge:
• Cold snaps
• Heat waves
• Low rainfall
• Low river flows
• High rainfall
• High river flows
• Wind storms
Project D: H++ scenarios
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Explaining High++ Project D: H++ scenarios
What H++ is What H++ is not
A range of values in the tail of the uncertainty distribution
A projection of the likely future outcome
A range suitable for sensitivity testing and investigation of no-regrets options
A single value
A process for combining information from different sources (not from just a single model framework)
The maximum value possible or worst case scenario
(Typically, although H++ is known to be in the tail of the uncertainty distribution ,it is usually not possible to specify a precise probability for components of H++)
A tool to encourage planners and practitioners to think about their risk appetite and where crossing a specific threshold has a large impact
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Methodology: Generating H++ scenarios
Expert judgement / synthesis
Project D: H++ scenarios
Historical Observations
Climate model outputs such as
UKCP09, other model ensembles or Global
Models
Scaled transient climate response (TCR) Scenarios
Evidence from climate research centres such
as the Met Office
Limiting physical arguments
Paleological evidence or analogues
Industry records Spatial analogues
Evidence base
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Results summary Project D: H++ scenarios
Hazard Scenario & direction of change
Cold snaps H++ UKCP09 Low Emissions
Heat waves H++ UKCP09 High Emissions
Low rainfall H++ CMIP5 range
Low river flows H++ CCRA1/UKCP09 High Emissions
High rainfall H++ UKCP09 High Emissions
High river flows H++ UKCP09
Wind storms H++ CMIP5
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Next steps
Daniel Johns
Head of Adaptation, ASC Secretariat
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Call for comments
Call for organisations wishing to provide comments on CCRA draft chapters Application guidelines: https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-climate-change/preparing-for-climate-change/climate-change-risk-assessment-2017/ Application letters to be sent via email to [email protected] by close on Wednesday 30th September 2015 Drafts and a list of review questions will be provided by the 15th of October, with comments needed by the 8th November
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Next steps
• September 2015 CCRA research projects published • October 2015 Draft report sent out for first round of review • December 2015 Draft report sent to Defra • January – March 2016 Final drafting amends. • April 2016 Final draft report sent out for second round of review. • July 2016 CCRA evidence report published. • January 2017 CCRA Government report published.
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Concluding remarks
Lord John Krebs
Chair, Adaptation Sub-Committee
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Thank you and contacts
ASC secretariat: Daniel Johns, Head of adaptation, lead on executive summary [email protected] Kathryn Humphrey, Lead on CCRA development, research projects on water and high++, ch. 2 and 5 [email protected] Manuela Di Mauro, Lead on CCRA programme and stakeholder management, chapters 7 and 8
[email protected] David Thompson, Lead on research projects on flooding and natural environment, chapter 3 and 4 [email protected] David Style, Lead economist, chapter 6 [email protected] Rachel Buckle, Lead on evaluation of Scottish Adaptation Programme and CCRA Scotland summary [email protected]
Email: [email protected] Web: https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-climate-change/preparing-for-climate-change/climate-change-risk-assessment-2017/