Climate Change Science: What we know today and future impactsDr. Roberta JohnsonUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric ResearchEducation and Outreach

OverviewWhy climate change science in the classroom?Climate versus WeatherClimate ModelsClimate Change ObservationsIPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy MakersFuture Impacts

Annual layers of ice, Quelccaya Ice Cap, PeruCourtesy of Lonnie Thompson

Why Focus on Climate Change?Societal RelevanceNational Science Education Standards (NRC, 1996)Interdisciplinary content spans broad spectrum of the geosciencesOpportunities for authentic inquiry-based learning

A focus area providing opportunity for students to engage in research-driven learning with high motivation in an interdisciplinary context.Polar bears on melting ice berg in Beaufort Sea, 2004Courtesy Environment Canada

Relevance of Climate Change to the NSESUnifying concepts and processesScience as InquiryPhysical ScienceLife ScienceEarth and Space ScienceScience and TechnologyScience in Personal and Social PerspectivesHistory and Nature of Science

NSES Content Standards, Grades 5-8

Unifying Concepts and ProcessesSystems, order, and organizationEvidence, models, and explanationChange, constancy, and measurementEvolution and equilibriumScience as Inquiry

Abilities necessary to do scientific inquiryUnderstandings about scientific inquiryPhysical Science

Properties and changes of properties in matterMotions and forcesTransfer of energyLife Science

Populations and ecosystemsDiversity and adaptations of organismsEarth and Space Science

Structure of the Earth systemEarths historyEarth in the solar systemScience and Technology

Understandings about science and technologyScience in Personal and Social Perspectives

Populations, resources, and environmentsNatural hazardsRisks and benefitsScience and technology in societyHistory and Nature of Science

Science as a human endeavorNature of scienceHistory of science

NSES Content Standards, Grades 9-12

Unifying Concepts and ProcessesSystems, order, and organizationEvidence, models, and explanationChange, constancy, and measurementEvolution and equilibriumScience as Inquiry

Abilities necessary to do scientific inquiryUnderstandings about scientific inquiryPhysical Science

Chemical reactionsMotions and forcesConservation of energy and increase in disorderInteractions of energy and matterLife Science

Biological evolutionInterdependence of organismsBehavior of organismsEarth and Space Science

Energy in the Earth systemGeochemical cyclesOrigin and evolution of the Earth systemScience and Technology

Understandings about science and technologyScience in Personal and Social Perspectives

Population growthNatural resourcesEnvironmental qualityNatural and human-induced hazardsScience and technology in local, national, and global challengesHistory and Nature of Science

Science as a human endeavorNature of scientific knowledgeHistorical perspectives

Were all familiar with the WeatherThe state of the atmosphere at a given time that includes temperature, precipitation, humidity, pressure, winds.

ClimateGlobal climate is driven by energy from the Sun and modulated by atmospheric composition

The average weather for a region over a long period of time 30 years or moreDetermined by latitude, altitude, topography, proximity to oceans/position in land massCharacterized by temperature, winds, and rainfall

You buy clothes based on climate

You wear clothes based on weather

The Challenge of Simulating the Global Earth SystemAtmosphereHydrosphereCryosphereBiosphere

Timeline of Climate Model Development

R15 T42T85T170Model Resolutions

Climate System Models

Global mean surface temperatures have increased

~ highest level of CO2 over past 400 KyrsIncrease intemperature trackscarbon emissionsand CO2

A Warming WorldNASA

100s of thousands of years:Ice Core Datatoday450,000 yrs agotime

Glaciers are Retreating GloballyIn SwitzerlandIn Alaska

Qori Kalis Glacier,Quelccaya Ice Cap, Perubetween 1978 and 2000.

Courtesy of L. Thompson, Byrd Polar Research Center

10-15% Decrease in Arctic Sea Ice Revealed by NOAA Operational Satellites

Permafrost in the Arctic is melting, leading to infrastructure damage as well as disrupting subsistence life styles

Ice is breaking up earlier on rivers and lakes in the spring around the world

Rise in Global Mean Sea Level

250 Year Record of Leafing Out Date of English Oaks

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

IPCC 2007Summary for PolicymakersGreenhouse gas concentrations have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values.CO2 increase from fossil fuel and land-use changesMethane, nitrous oxide due to agricultureIPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, evident from observations ofIncreases in global average air and ocean temperatureWidespread melting of snow and iceRising global mean sea levelIPCC 2007Summary for PolicymakersIPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

Warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years. The last time polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4-6 meters of sea level rise.IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers

Natural Variations do not explain observed climatic changeClimate models with natural forcing (including volcanic and solar) do not reproduce warmingWhen increase in greenhouse gases is included, models do reproduce warmingAddition of increase in aerosols (cooling) improves agreement

IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

For the next 2 decades a warming of .2C/decade is projected. Even if greenhouse gas/aerosol concentrations had been constant at yr 2000, further warming of .1C/decade would result due to slow response of the ocean.

Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates will cause further warming and induce many changes in global climate system this century larger than those observed in the last century.IPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers

IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

IPCC Emission ScenariosA1- rapid economic growth, population growth peaks and declines mid 2100s, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technologies. Convergence among regions, capacity building, cultural/social interactions, reduction in regional differences in per capita income. A1B balance across all sourcesA1FI Fossil-fuel intensive energy solutionsA1T non fossil-fuel energy solutionsA2 heterogeneous world, self reliance, slow reduction in population growth, economic development primarily regional, fragmented and slow growth in per capita income and tech growthB1 convergent world, population peak mid 2100s and declines (like A1), rapid change to service/information economy, reductions in material intensive, introduction of clean, resource efficient technology, global solutions, improve equity, but without addl climate initiativesB2 local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability problems. Continuously increasing global population, at rate lower than A2, intermediate economic development, less rapid and more diverse tech change than in A1 and B1.

No scenarios include climate initiatives, meaning that none assume that UN Framework Convention on Climate Change or emissions targets of Kyoto Protocol are enacted

Higher confidence in projected patterns of warming and regional-scale features, continuing currently observed trends:warming greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes (least over Southern Ocean and parts of NA ocean)snow cover will contractwidespread increases in thaw depth over most permafrost regionssea ice will shrink in both Arctic and Antarctic, in some projections late summer sea ice disappears in the Arctic by latter part of 21st centuryvery likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequentlikely that typhoons and hurricanes will become more intense extra-tropical storm tracks will move polewardprecipitation at high latitude very likely to increase, while decreases are likely in most subtropical land regionsVery likely that meridional overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean will slow down during the 21st century. Average reduction by 2100 is 25% (0-50%). Very abrupt transition is very unlikely in 21st century. Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise will continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were stabilizedIPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers

Under the Scenario A2Business-As-Usual This is What Happens to Arctic Sea Ice

20,000 years ago2200? ( + 5 meters)

Past and Future Rise in Sea Level

Zwally et al., (2002) ScienceAlley et al. (2005) ScienceMultiple new dynamic mechanisms for increased ice sheet sensitivity to surface warming have been discovered

Location and frequency of glacial earthquakes on Greenland. Seismic magnitudes are in range 4.6 to 5.1.Source: Ekstrom, Nettles and Tsai, Science, 311, 1756, 2006.Glacial Earthquakes on Greenland

Areas Under Water: Four Regions

CLIMATE CHANGETemperature Rise 1Sea level Rise 2Extreme Weather EventsHeat

Respiratory diseases

Vector-borne Diseases

Water-borne DiseasesChanges in water availability, infrastructure & food supply

Environmental Refugees

Heat Stress MortalityUrban Heat islands

Ozone

MalariaDengueWest Nile VirusEncephalitisHantavirusRift Valley Fever

CholeraCyclosporaCryptosporidiosisCampylobacterLeptospirosis

Waste System failureRunoffDiarrheaToxic Red TidesMalnutrition

Forced MigrationOvercrowdingInfectious diseases Health Effect of Climate Change

Some Great Websites on ClimateIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)- http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htmlUS Global Change Research Program (lots of good stuff)- http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/default.htmWorld Health Organization (WHO) - http://www.who.int/peh/climate/climate_and_health.htmUS Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/Climate.htmlNational Snow and Ice Data Center (great cryosphere data)- http://nsidc.org/noaa/National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate and Global Dynamics - http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/Climate HotSpots Map (AMAZING!)- http://www.climatehotmap.org/index.htmlVital Climate Graphics (Great ppt Graphics)- http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/index.htmWorld View of Global Warming (photos)- http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/Exploratorium Global Change Research Explorer - http://www.exploratorium.edu/climate/index.htmlGlobal Environmental Change and Our Health - http://www.pbs.org/journeytoplanetearth/johnshopkins/index.htmlNCAR Education and Outreach Website www.ncar.ucar.edu/eo

Johns Hopkins University School of Public HealthCourse: Global Environment and Health

We have a duty to all the worlds people and especially to the children of the world, to whom the future belongs- UN Millennium GoalsFacts do not cease to exist because they are ignoredAldous Huxley

Extra slides (do not print out beyond this point)

Extreme EventsStorms, Floods,Droughts, CyclonesMore frequent droughts and periods of intense precipitationDirect loss of life and injuryIndirect effectsLoss of shelterPopulation displacementContamination of water suppliesLoss of food productionIncreased risk of infectious disease epidemics (diarrhoeal and respiratory)Damage to infrastructure for provision of health services

Heat Waves Impacts on human health and mortality, economic impacts, ecosystem and wildlife impacts

(Meehl and Tebaldi, 2004: More intense, more frequent and longer lasting heat waves in the 21st century, Science, 305, 994-997)

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